详解基金 4Q25 银行持仓： 板块资金面整体稳健，主动基金比例小幅提升 0.04pcts 至 2.08% 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 上市公司数 42 行业总市值(亿元) 143,909.38 行业流通市值(亿元) 137,804.25 行业-市场走势对比 官信贷投放改善、存款总量稳增；预 计开门红趋势延续》2026-01-16 2、《12 月金融数据前瞻： 预计新增 8.3%》2026-01-08 | 一、主动基金配置银行板块情况：主动基金持仓银行市值占比升至 2.08%，但低配比例小 | | --- | | 幅扩大 | | 二、主动基金持仓银行个股情况： 共 21 家上市银行持仓比例环比提升 . | | 三、被动基金配置银行板块及个股情况：资金整体流入银行板块，合计净流入规模 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - The price of gold has surged significantly, with spot gold reaching $4981.309 per ounce, approaching the $5000 mark [1] - Domestic gold prices have also increased, with several brands of gold jewelry exceeding 1500 yuan per gram, and some reaching 1548 yuan, marking a daily increase of over 50 yuan [3] Group 2: Demand for Bank Safe Deposit Boxes - The demand for bank safe deposit boxes has skyrocketed, with many banks reporting that all available boxes are rented out, leading to waiting lists for new customers [7][9] - In Hangzhou, major banks have completely rented out their safe deposit boxes, and new customers must wait for existing customers to return their boxes before they can rent one [8] - The surge in demand for safe deposit boxes is attributed to the increasing need for secure storage of high-value items like gold bars, particularly among high-net-worth individuals in major cities [9]

王良，1965年12月出生，招商银行执行董事、行长兼首席执行官。中国人民大学经济学硕士，高级经济 师。1995年6月加入招商银行，历任招商银行北京分行行长助理、副行长、行长，2012年6月起历任公司 行长助理、副行长、常务副行长，2022年4月18日起全面主持公司工作，2022年6月15日起任公司行长。 王良还兼任招商银行香港上市相关事宜之授权代表、招银国际金融控股有限公司董事长、招银国际金融 有限公司董事长、招商永隆银行有限公司董事长、招联消费金融有限公司副董事长、招商局金融控股有 限公司董事、中国银行业协会中间业务专业委员会第四届主任、中国金融会计学会第六届常务理事、广 东省第十四届人大代表。曾任公司财务负责人、董事会秘书、公司秘书。 截至2025年12月31日，招商银行资产总额13.07万亿元，较上年末增加9184.87亿元，增幅7.56%；负债 总额11.79万亿元，较上年末增加8710.63亿元，增幅7.98%；不良贷款率0.94%，较上年末下降0.01个百 分点；拨备覆盖率391.79%，较上年末下降20.19个百分点；贷款拨备率3.68%，较上年末下降0.24个百 分点。 招商银行董事长缪建民、 ...

2025 年 4 季度公募基金银行持仓点评 主动基金配置比例仍处低位 glmszqdatemark 分析师：王先爽 分析师：乔丹 执业证书：S0590525120014 执业证书：S0590526010003 邮箱：wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn 邮箱：qiaodan@glms.com.cn 推荐 维持评级 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 银行 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 01 月 25 日 [Table_Author] 25Q4 公募基金持仓银行情况。为了追踪市场偏股公募基金对银行的持仓情况， 我们把其分为三类：1、主动基金：主动股票、偏股混合和灵活配置型基金；2、 ETF 基金：追踪沪深 300、中证 A500 等与银行相关的主要指数的 ETF 基金；3、 非 ETF 指数基金：追踪以上主要指数的非 ETF 类被动指数、指数增强型基金。25 年四季度主动、ETF 和非 ETF 指数基金分别持有银行板块 305.8、2607.2、574.1 亿元，分 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese private banking industry is undergoing a historic shift from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," with high-quality growth expected by 2025 [3][4] - The number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) in China has surpassed 3 million, with assets under management (AUM) reaching 24.6 trillion yuan, projected to grow to 42 trillion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% [3][6] - The market is characterized by a dual trend of "head concentration and distinctive breakthroughs," with major state-owned banks dominating the sector [3][8] Industry Overview - The private banking sector in China continues to show steady growth, with AUM reaching 18.8 trillion yuan by mid-2025, a 9.3% increase from the end of 2024 [5][6] - The number of clients served by 16 banks reached 1.649 million, a year-on-year growth of 13.17% [5] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top four state-owned banks holding nearly 70% of the total AUM among the 12 major private banks [8][7] Market Dynamics - Business innovation is becoming a new driving force for industry development, with family trusts and insurance trusts experiencing rapid growth [4][19] - By Q3 2025, the total scale of family trusts exceeded 950 billion yuan, while insurance trusts reached 420 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 5.6% and 19.1% respectively [4][19] - The industry faces challenges such as stricter regulations, talent shortages, and intensified competition [4][29] Client Demographics - The number of high-net-worth families in China reached 2.066 million by 2025, with the total wealth of billionaires growing to 1.8 trillion USD, a 22.2% increase [12][6] - The average age of high-net-worth individuals is 35, with a significant portion being young entrepreneurs [13][12] - The income sources of high-net-worth individuals are diverse, with business income being the primary source [13][16] Business Model Innovations - Family office services are rapidly developing, with over 85% of private banking departments establishing independent family office service systems by the end of 2023 [22] - The demand for family office services is expected to grow, with annual expenditures on tax planning projected to reach 2.8 million yuan by 2025 [23] - ESG investments are becoming a key focus, with ESG-themed financial products seeing significant growth [24][25] Digital Transformation - The digital transformation of the private banking sector is entering a deepening phase, with at least 60% of institutions expected to adopt AI-driven advisory systems by 2025 [26][27] - Technology investments are projected to exceed 4.8 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 27.3% [26] - The integration of digital services is crucial for enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [28] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory environment is becoming stricter, leading to increased compliance costs, which are expected to rise by 23 percentage points of operating income [29][30] - The implementation of new asset management regulations is reshaping product design and increasing the entry barriers for new players [29][30] Talent Shortage - The private banking industry faces a significant talent shortage, with a demand gap of approximately 24,000 professional bankers by 2025 [33][34] - The ratio of talent supply to demand is 1:8, indicating a critical need for skilled professionals [33] - The industry is increasingly focusing on talent training and recruitment to address this gap [34]

财富管理热度延续，全年营收增速转正 招商银行(600036) 招商银行 2025 年业绩快报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 刘源(分析师) | 021-38677818 | liuyuan2@gtht.com | S0880521060001 | 本报告导读： 招商银行 2025 年营收增速转正，归母净利润增速逐季回升，25Q4 存贷款增长提前 布局，财富管理热度延续。维持目标价 55 元，维持增持评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 339,123 | 337,488 | 337,523 | 345,593 | 358,170 | | (+/-)% | -1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 0.01% year-on-year for 2025, indicating a recovery in revenue growth compared to the previous quarters [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.21% year-on-year, showing stable growth [6]. - The company's total assets grew by 7.56% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 5.37% [6]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a provision coverage ratio of 391.79% [6]. - The report suggests that the company is expected to leverage its solid retail customer base and asset under management (AUM) advantages to enhance performance in 2026 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at 337.51 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.0% - 2026 revenue is expected to reach 349.78 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% - 2027 revenue is forecasted at 365.54 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.5% [6][37] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 149.17 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.5% - Net profit for 2026 is projected at 151.57 billion yuan, growing by 1.6% - Net profit for 2027 is expected to be 156.86 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.5% [6][37] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS for 2025 is expected to be 5.69 yuan - EPS for 2026 is projected at 5.79 yuan - EPS for 2027 is forecasted at 6.00 yuan [6][37] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 7 times, for 2026 is 6 times, and for 2027 is also 6 times - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025 is 0.8 times, for 2026 is 0.8 times, and for 2027 is 0.7 times [6][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 0.01% year-on-year for 2025, indicating a recovery in growth compared to the previous quarters [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.21% year-on-year, showing stable growth [6] - The asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a provision coverage ratio of 391.79% [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at 337,512 million, with growth rates of 0.0% for 2025, 3.6% for 2026, and 4.5% for 2027 [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 149,169 million for 2025, with growth rates of 0.5% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026, and 3.5% for 2027 [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 5.69 for 2025, 5.79 for 2026, and 6.00 for 2027 [6] - **Asset and Liability Growth**: - Total assets grew by 7.56% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 5.37% [6][7] - Total liabilities increased by 7.98%, and deposits grew by 8.13% [6][7] - **Asset Quality Metrics**: - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.94% [6][7] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 14.14 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][7] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the company is expected to leverage its solid retail customer base and asset under management (AUM) advantages to enhance performance in 2026 as margin pressures ease and capital markets recover [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue growth turns positive in 2025, with net profit growth recovering quarter by quarter. The bank is proactively positioning its loan and deposit growth for Q4 2025, and the enthusiasm for wealth management continues [2][12]. - By the end of Q4 2025, the total assets of the bank exceed 13 trillion CNY, with loans and deposits growing ahead of schedule, laying a solid foundation for interest income in the new year [12]. - The wealth management business shows strong performance, with retail AUM reaching 16.6 trillion CNY by the end of Q3 2025, a 7.4% increase from the beginning of the year, outpacing industry averages [12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 339,123 million CNY - 2024A: 337,488 million CNY - 2025E: 337,523 million CNY - 2026E: 345,593 million CNY - 2027E: 358,170 million CNY - Revenue growth rates: 2025E shows 0.0% growth, with subsequent years projected at 2.4% and 3.6% [4][13]. - **Net Profit (Attributable to Parent)**: - 2023A: 146,602 million CNY - 2024A: 148,391 million CNY - 2025E: 150,186 million CNY - 2026E: 155,459 million CNY - 2027E: 162,555 million CNY - Net profit growth rates: 2025E shows 1.2% growth, with 3.5% and 4.6% in the following years [4][13]. - **Key Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE): 2025E at 12.2%, declining to 11.7% by 2027E [4]. - Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B): 2025E at 0.86, decreasing to 0.73 by 2027E [4]. Market Data - The bank's market capitalization is approximately 945,744 million CNY, with a total share capital of 25,220 million shares [7]. - The stock price has fluctuated between 37.50 CNY and 48.24 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月24日 招商银行（600036.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 优于大市 业绩底部明确，估值具备吸引力 营收增速和净利润增速都有所提升。2025 年全年实现营收 3375 亿元，同比 增长 0.01%，前三季度同比下降 0.5%。实现归母净利润 1502 亿元，同比增 长 1.2%，前三季度同比增长 0.5%。 营收微增，扭转了 2023-2024 年连续两年同比下降态势。公司 2023-2025 年 营收同比增速分别为-1.6%、-0.5%和 0.01%。营收增速微增核心来自于与净 利息收入增速转正，2023-2025 年净利息收入增速同比增速分别为-1.6%、 -1.6%和 2.0%。其中，2025 年四季度单季同比增长 2.9%，较三季度增速提升 0.8 个百分点，已连续 5 个季度实现正增长，核心是净息差降幅在逐步收窄， 预计 2026 该趋势将进一步延续。 非息收入同比降幅收窄，预计主要来自手续费及佣金净收入增速提升。2025 年公司非息收入同比下降 3.4%，较前三季度降幅收窄 0.8 个百分点。我们判 断由于其他非息收入在 2024 年 4 季度高增，因此今年四 ...