Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][31]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery with a week-on-week increase in both new and second-hand property transactions, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [4][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for continued policy support to enhance market conditions, particularly in light of the ongoing inventory reduction trends [4][31]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 3.792 million square meters, representing a week-on-week increase of 51.1% [5][8]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in June decreased by 13%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a decline of 11% and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a 26% drop [8][9]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities remained stable with a slight increase of 0.5%, while the cumulative transaction volume for June showed a year-on-year decrease of 5% [13][22]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 15 cities launched 1.82 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.85, indicating ongoing inventory management challenges [22][31]. - The total available housing inventory in these cities was 89.79 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [22][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights key policy developments aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to support first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children [31][34]. - Recent statements from government officials indicate a commitment to expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer confidence in the real estate sector [31][34].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential recovery in the market with a recommendation to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +3.1%, ranking 17th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +3.9%, ranking 4th [3][19]. - The land market's premium rate has rebounded, with an average premium rate of 9% for the week ending June 27, 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease in land transaction volume [3][30]. - New housing sales in 47 cities totaled 523 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +39% but a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - Guangzhou is promoting prefabricated buildings, mandating that 100% of residential land sold from 2026 onwards will implement this construction method, which may transform the real estate and construction industries [6][17]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions across various city tiers [4][43]. - The premium rates for land transactions have shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [3][30]. Land Transactions - In the week of June 21-27, 2025, 923 million square meters of residential land were transacted across 300 cities, with a year-on-year decrease of -33% [30]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amount are Poly Developments, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 414 billion, 395 billion, 386 billion, 329 billion, and 313 billion respectively [30][31]. New Housing Sales - New housing sales in 47 cities reached 523 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of +39% and a year-on-year decrease of -14% [4][35]. - The performance varied by city tier, with first-tier cities showing a week-on-week increase of +81% [4][35]. Second-Hand Housing Sales - Second-hand housing transactions totaled 264 million square meters in 22 cities, with a week-on-week increase of +1% and a year-on-year decrease of -2% [43][44]. - First-tier cities experienced a week-on-week increase of +2%, while second-tier cities saw a +1% increase [43][44]. Policy and Market Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in supporting the real estate market, particularly in Shanghai, where the release of quality land parcels is seen as a positive signal for market recovery [5][13]. - The promotion of prefabricated buildings in Guangzhou is expected to enhance construction efficiency and sustainability, potentially benefiting developers who adopt these practices [6][17].

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant recovery in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.91% this week, surpassing 3400 points [1] - The 每经品牌100 Index also saw a weekly increase of 1.6%, closing at 1076.21 points, continuing its upward trend towards the 1100-point mark [1] Performance of Stocks - Nearly 80% of the constituent stocks in the 每经品牌100 Index experienced gains, with 76 stocks rising, accounting for 76.77% of the index [2] - Notable performers included 江西铜业 (Jiangxi Copper), 小米集团 (Xiaomi Group), 理想汽车 (Li Auto), 紫金矿业 (Zijin Mining), and 建发股份 (Jianfa Co.), all of which had weekly gains exceeding 5% [2] Sector Analysis - The macroeconomic environment has remained stable, supported by policy measures, although challenges in exports and consumer demand are anticipated in the second half of the year [4] - The liquidity environment in the A-share market is gradually expanding, with policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market [4] Focus on New Energy Vehicles - The performance of new energy vehicle leaders, 小米集团 and 理想汽车, has attracted market attention, particularly regarding their delivery expectations [5] - 理想汽车 has adjusted its delivery forecast for Q2 2025 to approximately 108,000 vehicles, down from a previous estimate of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles [5] - 小米汽车 has also updated its delivery timelines based on order volume and current production capacity, indicating potential dynamic changes in actual delivery times [5] Insights on Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with stocks like 江西铜业 and 紫金矿业 leading the gains [7] - The 中证申万有色金属指数, which tracks the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, includes major companies such as 紫金矿业, indicating its investment significance [9]

Group 1 - The copper concept sector increased by 1.95%, ranking 6th among concept sectors, with 58 stocks rising, including Northern Copper, which hit the daily limit, and Jin Chengxin, Jiangxi Copper, and Jintian Co., which rose by 6.70%, 6.12%, and 6.05% respectively [1][2] - The main capital inflow into the copper concept sector was 281 million yuan, with 35 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 50 million yuan, led by Northern Copper with a net inflow of 244 million yuan [2][3] - The net inflow ratios for Northern Copper, Xiyu Co., and ST Shengtun were 19.90%, 15.00%, and 11.19% respectively, indicating strong investor interest in these stocks [3] Group 2 - The top gainers in the copper concept sector included Northern Copper, which rose by 10.03%, and Xiyu Co., which increased by 5.95%, while the top losers included Huamao Co., which fell by 7.56% [3][6] - The trading volume and turnover rates for the leading stocks in the copper sector showed significant activity, with Northern Copper having a turnover rate of 6.86% and Xiyu Co. at 4.85% [3][4] - The overall performance of the copper concept sector reflects a positive sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the substantial net inflows and the number of stocks experiencing gains [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The successful sale of the NY-030 (South District) R2 residential land in Fengtai District for 2.08 billion yuan indicates a strategic move by the joint venture of Jianfa and Jinmao, reflecting confidence in the area's development potential and market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Land Transaction Details - The land was sold at a base price of 2.08 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 40,200 yuan per square meter [1]. - The land is located between the fourth and fifth ring roads in Fengtai, approximately 500 meters from the Xinjing Station, which connects Metro Lines 19 and 4 [3]. - The total area of the land is 25,900 square meters with a plot ratio of 2.0 and a height limit of 45 meters (60 meters in some areas) [4]. Group 2: Market Context and Implications - The area surrounding the land is well-developed with commercial facilities, including Wanda Plaza and Dayue Chunfengli, and is rich in ecological resources, although educational resources are currently lacking [3]. - The successful acquisition of this land follows the positive market performance of the Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng project, which was launched after obtaining a pre-sale permit [4]. - The transaction aligns with the market supply rhythm, as the previous land parcels were initially bundled but were later split to enhance the likelihood of successful sales [4][5]. Group 3: Future Development Potential - The acquisition of the 02 land plot is seen as a recognition of the area's development potential and land value, with plans for the NY-030 (North District) plot to also enter the market [5]. - If Jianfa successfully integrates the North District plot, it could facilitate comprehensive development in the area and allow for better control over development pace and regional value [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition of the NY-030-02 land parcel by the joint venture of Jianfa and Jinmao for 2.08 billion yuan indicates a strong belief in the area's development potential and land value, likely leading to the creation of a second phase of the Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng project [1][4]. Group 1: Land Acquisition and Development - The NY-030-02 land parcel has a planned construction area of approximately 51,800 square meters and is designated for R2 residential use [4]. - The land is strategically located between the fourth and fifth ring roads in Fengtai District, close to the New Palace subway station, enhancing its accessibility [4]. - The successful sale of the NY-030-02 land is expected to align with the typical cycle from land acquisition to project launch, reflecting the local government's strategy in managing market supply [4][6]. Group 2: Market Performance and Strategy - Jianfa's first project in the New Palace area, Jianfa Jingyuan, received its pre-sale permit in March 2023 and has nearly sold out, demonstrating strong market performance [5]. - The success of Jianfa Jingyuan is attributed to its quality delivery and the area's existing transportation and commercial infrastructure, which enhances the overall living environment [5]. - The deep cultivation strategy employed by Jianfa in the region is expected to create a "red plate effect," attracting more homebuyers and facilitating faster sales for new projects [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The acquisition of the NY-030-02 land may lead to the integration of the NY-030 (North District) land parcel, allowing Jianfa to enhance overall development and resource integration in the area [6]. - This strategy could help control development pace and improve regional value, further solidifying Jianfa's presence in the market [6].

Core Insights - The company, Jianfa, has successfully acquired a new land parcel in the Fengtai District, Beijing, for 20.8 billion yuan, indicating strong confidence in the area's development potential and land value [1][3] - The new project, NY-030 (South District) -02, has a floor price of approximately 40,200 yuan per square meter, reflecting a strategic move to enhance market presence in a competitive environment [1][3] - Jianfa's previous projects in the area, such as Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng and Jianfa Jingyuan, have performed well, contributing to the company's decision to invest further in this region [1][5] Land Acquisition Details - The newly acquired land parcel covers an area of 25,900 square meters with a plot ratio of 2.0 and a height limit of 45 meters, which is expected to provide a comfortable living experience due to its location away from major traffic noise [3] - The land was previously listed for auction at a starting price of 5.2 billion yuan but was split into two parcels to facilitate a successful sale [3][4] - The successful acquisition of this land parcel marks the end of the land auction season in Beijing for the first half of the year [3] Market Performance - Jianfa Jinmao Guancheng has achieved impressive sales figures, with 182 units sold at an average price of approximately 78,451.83 yuan per square meter, leading the sales rankings in Fengtai [4] - The company has demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to market conditions, as evidenced by the rapid sales of its recent project, Jianfa Haiyan, which sold 107 units within 12 days of its launch [6] - The company has been actively expanding its land reserves in first- and second-tier cities, with significant recent acquisitions in Shanghai totaling 12.35 billion yuan [6][8] Strategic Insights - Jianfa's approach to land acquisition involves thorough market research to understand customer needs and price acceptance, which informs their strategic decision-making [8] - The company emphasizes the importance of aligning architectural design with urban planning and cultural elements, enhancing the overall quality and appeal of its projects [5]

Group 1 - Recent land acquisitions by Jianfa Group demonstrate its determination to enter first-tier cities, with high premium land purchases in Shenzhen and Shanghai [2] - On June 20, a land parcel in Shanghai's Pudong New Area was sold at a premium rate of 41.68%, with Jianfa Group winning the bid at a total price of 2.1 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of approximately 34,000 yuan per square meter [2] - This land parcel is notable for being the second land with a premium rate exceeding 40% in Shanghai since 2020 and the highest premium rate since the centralized land supply policy [2] Group 2 - Jianfa Group's subsidiary, Shenzhen Lianyu Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., won a land bid in Shenzhen for 1.212 billion yuan, with a premium of 46.6% and a floor price of 44,559 yuan per square meter [3] - In the previous year, Jianfa Group's land acquisition amounted to 12.34 billion yuan, adding over 20 billion yuan in new value, including two land parcels in Shanghai [3] - The company's land reserves are primarily located in second-tier cities, indicating a strategic shift to increase its presence in first-tier markets [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the current data is at a bottoming phase and that further policy measures may be necessary to stabilize the market [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector experienced a decline of 1.7% this week, ranking 14th among various sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector fell by 1.6%, ranking 6th [3][18]. - New housing transaction volume increased by 9.3% week-on-week, marking two consecutive weeks of growth, although it remains down 7.3% year-on-year [4][34]. - The land market shows a slight recovery in premium rates, with an average premium rate of 8% for land transactions in 300 cities [3][27]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights a decline in both A-share and Hong Kong real estate sectors, with specific weekly performance metrics indicating a negative trend [3][18]. - The property service and management index in Hong Kong also saw a decrease of 1.9% [26]. Land Market - The land market is characterized by a mix of high premium and base price transactions, with significant competition for core urban land [5][14]. - In the latest land auction in Shanghai, five plots generated a total revenue of 191.56 billion yuan, with varying premium rates [5][14]. Real Estate Transactions - New home sales in 47 cities totaled 370 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 9% [4][34]. - Second-hand home transactions also saw a slight increase of 2.1% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in the market [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with strong positions in first-tier and core second-tier cities, such as Greentown China and Binjiang Group, which are expected to benefit from potential policy support [7]. - It also highlights the importance of property management companies that are well-positioned for growth and dividends, recommending companies like China Resources Mixc Lifestyle [7]. Data Tracking - The report provides detailed statistics on real estate development investments, new construction areas, and sales figures, indicating a continued decline in overall market performance [6][16][19]. - The cumulative land transaction area in 300 cities reached 16,293 million square meters, down 3.6% year-on-year [27][32].

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Shenzhen reflects strong competition among developers, with a notable high premium paid for a small residential plot, indicating confidence in the long-term value of the area and strategic expansion by the winning bidder, Lianfa Group [1][4][10]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - The A817-0619 plot in Longhua District has an area of 10,898.05 square meters and an initial bidding price of 827 million yuan [1][4]. - Lianfa Group won the auction after 65 rounds of bidding, with a final price of 1.212 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of approximately 44,559 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 46.6% [1][4][10]. - The plot is characterized as low-density with a floor area ratio of 2.5, allowing for a total planned construction area of 27,200 square meters [4][5]. Group 2: Location and Infrastructure - The plot is strategically located in the core area of Longhua New City, near major transportation links including Shenzhen Metro lines 4 and 6, and surrounded by commercial facilities and quality public resources [7][8]. - The absence of sales price limits and flexible design requirements for housing units make the plot attractive for developers, allowing for the creation of larger, more market-responsive units [7][9]. Group 3: Market Context and Developer Strategy - The recent high premium for the land is part of Lianfa Group's strategic repositioning in response to previous financial challenges, aiming to focus on high-quality projects in core areas [12][14]. - The overall land supply in Shenzhen is increasing significantly, with a projected 468,000 square meters of new residential land planned for 2025, marking a 116% year-on-year increase [20][21]. - The trend of smaller, high-quality land parcels is becoming prevalent in major cities, driven by rapid market changes and the need for quicker development and sales [21][22].