证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W20：本周新房成交同比-11.3%，二手房同比+3.7% 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-0.3%，落后沪深 300 指 数 1.43 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 25 名。 新房：本周 30个城市新房成交面积为195.6万平方米，环比提升29.2%， 同比下降 11.3%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 60.1 万方，环比 +41.1%，同比+13.8%；样本二线城市为 87.5 万方，环比+25.5%，同比 -28.1%；样本三线城市为 48.0 万方，环比+22.9%，同比+4.3%。 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 230.4 万方，环比增长 44.3%，同比增长 3.7%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为 96.8 万方，环比 63.4%；样本二线城市为 104.9 万方，环比 26.4%；样 本三线城市为 28.7 万方，环比 64.8%。 信用债：本周共发行房企信用债 5 只，环比减少 5 只；发行规模共计 36.00 亿元，环比减少 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector experienced a slight decline of -0.3% during the week, ranking 25th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector remained flat at 0%, ranking 11th [2] - New home sales showed a rebound on a week-on-week basis but declined year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on market sentiment [3] - The central government has issued a roadmap for urban renewal, emphasizing financial support to accelerate project implementation, which is expected to enhance the pace of urban renewal projects [4][13] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector's performance was -0.3%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector was flat at 0% [2] - The property service and management index in Hong Kong increased by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.9% [2][26] Land Transactions - In the week of May 10-16, 2025, the total area of residential land sold across 300 cities was 334 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 29% and a year-on-year decrease of 45% [29] - The cumulative area of residential land sold from the beginning of 2025 to date is 12,486 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [29] New Home Sales - In the week of May 10-16, 2025, new home sales across 47 cities totaled 343 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 30% but a year-on-year decrease of 13% [35] - First-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 29% in new home sales, while second-tier cities experienced a 43% increase [35] Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home transactions across 22 cities totaled 265 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 39% but a year-on-year decrease of 2% [43] - First-tier cities reported a week-on-week increase of 51% in second-hand home sales, while second-tier cities saw a 31% increase [43] Urban Renewal Initiatives - The central government has outlined eight key tasks for urban renewal, including the renovation of existing buildings and the improvement of urban infrastructure [4][13] - Financial support through central budget investments and special bonds is expected to facilitate the acceleration of urban renewal projects [4][13] Financing Trends - In April 2025, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.3% [5][15] - The amount of new residential medium- and long-term loans decreased by 123.1 billion yuan in April, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 435 billion yuan [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, indicating a continued divergence among companies, with a focus on those positioned in core cities and commercial operations [2][3]. Core Insights - The recent disclosure of annual and quarterly reports shows that real estate development companies are still in a performance bottoming phase for 2024 due to declining gross margins and increased impairments, with no significant improvement observed in Q1 of this year [2][3]. - Companies focusing on core city developments and property leasing have managed to achieve performance growth despite the overall industry challenges [2][3]. - The trend of deleveraging among real estate firms is expected to continue in 2024, with an optimization of debt structure and a decrease in interest-bearing debt ratios noted in Q1 [2][3]. - State-owned enterprises exhibit relatively stable debt repayment capabilities, and strong credit real estate companies are anticipated to maintain a competitive advantage in the context of declining financing costs [2][3]. - The issuance of the "Opinions on Continuing to Promote Urban Renewal Actions" by the Central Committee and the State Council is expected to accelerate the pace of urban renewal through increased funding support for eligible projects [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the week of May 10-16, new home transaction area in 29 key cities reached 2.02 million square meters, a 39.0% increase week-on-week but a 10.8% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 13 key cities was 1.75 million square meters, reflecting a 46.0% increase week-on-week and a 1.2% decrease year-on-year [2]. - New land supply in 100 cities decreased year-on-year by 30.5% but increased by 66.1% week-on-week, with 8.5 million square meters of new residential land supplied [2]. Industry News - The report highlights the ongoing divergence among companies and emphasizes the importance of focusing on core city layouts and commercial operations [2][3]. - The CITIC Real Estate Index fell by 0.5%, while the CSI 300 rose by 1.1%, indicating that the real estate sector underperformed the broader market [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on developers and property management companies in core cities, as well as quality commercial real estate firms [2][3]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - A-shares: Binhai Group, Jianfa Co., Jindi Group, China Merchants Shekou, China Merchants Jinling, and Wo Ai Wo Jia - Hong Kong stocks: Beike, Jianfa International Holdings, Yuexiu Property, and Greentown Service [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry Core Views - The A-share real estate sector experienced a slight decline of -0.3% this week, ranking 25th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector remained flat at 0%, ranking 11th [2] - New home sales showed a rebound on a week-on-week basis but declined year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on market sentiment [3] - The recent issuance of a "roadmap" for urban renewal is expected to accelerate project implementation with financial support from the government [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector's performance was -0.3%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector was flat at 0% [2] - The property service and management index in Hong Kong increased by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 1.9% [2][26] Land Transactions - In the week of May 10-16, the total area of residential land sold across 300 cities was 334 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 29% and a year-on-year decrease of 45% [29] - The cumulative area of residential land sold from the beginning of 2025 to date is 12,486 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [29] New Home Sales - In 47 cities, new home sales totaled 343 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 30% but a year-on-year decrease of 13% [35] - First-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 29% and a year-on-year stability, while second-tier cities experienced a week-on-week increase of 43% but a year-on-year decline of 22% [35] Second-Hand Home Sales - In 22 cities, second-hand home sales totaled 265 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 39% but a year-on-year decrease of 2% [43] - First-tier cities reported a week-on-week increase of 51% and a year-on-year increase of 9% [43] Urban Renewal - The government has outlined eight key tasks for urban renewal, including the renovation of existing buildings and the improvement of urban infrastructure [4][13] - Financial support through central budget investments and special bonds is expected to facilitate the acceleration of urban renewal projects [4][13] Financing Trends - In April 2025, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.3% [5][15] - The new residential medium- and long-term loans decreased by 123.1 billion yuan in April, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 435 billion yuan [5][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a recovery, with new home sales in 34 key cities increasing by 30% week-on-week, while second-hand home sales also showed a positive trend with a 32% increase [4][5]. - The report highlights significant policy support for urban renewal and housing quality improvement, including the implementation of current housing sales for newly released land in Xinyang and the introduction of standards for quality housing in Shandong [4][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product strength in real estate companies, recommending firms with strong product offerings and a focus on first and second-tier cities [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Sales - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 238 million square meters last week, reflecting a 30% increase compared to the previous week [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in May showed a decline of 7%, with first and second-tier cities also experiencing a 7% drop [7][8]. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 13 key cities reached 126 million square meters last week, marking a 32% increase week-on-week [4][13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales in May increased by 1% year-on-year [13]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 106 million square meters of new homes launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.99, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [4][22]. - The average months of inventory for new homes in these cities is 19.7 months, which has decreased by 0.6 months [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report outlines key policy developments, including the central government's push for urban renewal and the resolution of historical real estate registration issues, benefiting over 50 million people [32][33]. - Local governments are implementing various measures to enhance housing quality and accessibility, such as optimizing housing loan conditions for young people in Wuhan and expanding housing fund coverage for flexible employment workers in Shenyang [32][33]. Company Dynamics Performance Highlights - Beike reported a net income of 23.33 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, with a net profit of 860 million yuan, up 98.2% [41][42]. - New City Holdings and China Resources Land reported significant declines in sales, with New City Holdings down 56% and China Resources Land down 5% year-on-year [38][40]. Management Changes - Recent leadership changes include Xu Xiaoxi resigning as chairman of Xiamen International Trade Group to take over as chairman of Jianfa Group, and Zheng Yongda stepping down from Jianfa Group to lead Xiamen International Trade [38][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in cash dividends among listed companies in Xiamen, with a notable focus on shareholder returns amidst changing market conditions and regulatory frameworks [1][3][5]. Group 1: Dividend Trends - Over 67.48% of A-share listed companies plan to distribute cash dividends, with a total expected payout of approximately 1.65 trillion yuan, while Xiamen's listed companies show a higher participation rate of 74.6% [5][7]. - The total dividend amount for Xiamen companies is projected to be 10.881 billion yuan, with eight companies contributing over 300 million yuan each, accounting for about 50% of the total dividends [7][12]. - Yilian Network leads with a proposed dividend of 1.643 billion yuan, representing 15% of Xiamen's total dividends, and has a remarkable dividend payout ratio of 90.59% for 2024 [7][11]. Group 2: Shareholder Returns - 34 listed companies in Xiamen have a dividend yield exceeding the one-year deposit rate of 1.5%, with Jianfa Co. having the highest yield at 6.65% [10]. - Despite some companies facing profit declines, they still prioritize shareholder returns, with commitments to distribute at least 30% of distributable profits [8][10]. - The trend of increasing dividends reflects a strong commitment to shareholder value, with many companies maintaining high dividend payout ratios over the past five years [11][12]. Group 3: Historical Performance - Jianfa Co. has demonstrated impressive dividend performance, with cumulative cash dividends reaching 9.806 billion yuan over the past five years, averaging nearly 2 billion yuan annually [11]. - Other notable companies include Xiamen Guomao and Xiamen Xiangyu, with cumulative dividends of 5.26 billion yuan and over 5.1 billion yuan, respectively, showcasing a consistent commitment to returning profits to shareholders [11][12]. - The overall positive dividend performance among Xiamen listed companies indicates strong profitability and financial health, enhancing their appeal to investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is shifting its focus from high-growth models to a more sustainable approach, emphasizing cash flow as a critical indicator of financial health and operational stability [1][8]. Cash Reserves - The top three companies with the highest cash reserves in 2024 are Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and China Overseas, each holding over 100 billion yuan [2][6]. - Poly Developments is identified as the wealthiest real estate company for 2024, showcasing strong liquidity and risk resilience [2]. Operating Cash Flow - The companies with the strongest operating cash flow in 2024 are China Resources Land, China Overseas, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating robust internal cash generation capabilities [8][12]. - Poly Developments, despite having the highest cash reserves, ranks 15th in operating cash flow with a net amount of 6.257 billion yuan, highlighting a significant gap compared to the leaders [12]. Land Acquisition Activity - Companies with substantial cash reserves are also actively acquiring land, with the top three being China Overseas, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, securing 688 billion yuan, 583 billion yuan, and 543 billion yuan respectively [6]. Financial Health Indicators - Several companies, including Shimao Group, Xiamen Guomao, and China Evergrande, reported negative operating cash flows, indicating potential operational challenges and inventory pressures [12]. - The industry is experiencing a transition from scale competition to quality competition, where healthy cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities are essential for long-term survival [12].

厦门建发股份有限公司 会议资料 厦门建发股份有限公司 序号 内容 页码 三、股东发言。 四、公司董秘宣读现场表决办法，介绍现场计票人和现场监票人。 五、监票人代表、见证律师验票箱。 会议地点：厦门市思明区环岛东路 1699 号建发国际大厦附楼 6 层 2 号会 议室 主 持 人：董事长林茂先生 见证律师所：福建天衡联合律师事务所 会议议程： 一、董事长主持会议，介绍会议有关情况，宣布会议开始。 二、提请股东会审议《关于提名公司第十届董事会董事候选人的议案》。 厦门建发股份有限公司 会议时间：2025 年 6 月 3 日下午 14:40 十二、主持人宣布会议结束。 厦门建发股份有限公司 2025 年第一次临时股东会会议资料 厦门建发股份有限公司 关于提名公司第十届董事会董事候选人的议案 六、现场股东和股东代表投票表决。 七、股东交流。 八、休会，工作人员统计现场表决票，将现场表决结果报送上证所信息网 络有限公司；上证所信息网络有限公司汇总统计现场及网络投票的表决结果。 九、复会，监票人代表宣布表决结果。 十、见证律师宣读现场会议见证意见。 十一、主持人宣读股东会决议。 尊敬的各位股东和股东代表： 根据《公司法》 ...

| 股票代码：600153 | 股票简称：建发股份 | | | 公告编号：临 | 2025—025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：185929 | 债券简称：22 | 建发 | Y3 | | | | 债券代码：137601 | 债券简称：22 | 建发 | Y4 | | | | 债券代码：115755 | 债券简称：23 | 建发 | Y1 | | | | 债券代码：240217 | 债券简称：23 | 建发 | Y2 | | | | 债券代码：240650 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y1 | | | | 债券代码：241016 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y2 | | | | 债券代码：241137 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y3 | | | | 债券代码：241265 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y4 | | | | 债券代码：241266 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y5 | | | 厦门建发股份有限公司 第十届董事会 2025 年第二次临时会议决议 暨增补董事的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不 ...

| 股票代码：600153 | 股票简称：建发股份 | 公告编号：临2025-026 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：185929 | 债券简称：22建发Y3 | | | 债券代码：137601 | 债券简称：22建发Y4 | | | 债券代码：115755 | 债券简称：23建发Y1 | | | 债券代码：240217 | 债券简称：23建发Y2 | | | 债券代码：240650 | 债券简称：24建发Y1 | | | 债券代码：241016 | 债券简称：24建发Y2 | | | 债券代码：241137 | 债券简称：24建发Y3 | | | 债券代码：241265 | 债券简称：24建发Y4 | | | 债券代码：241266 | 债券简称：24建发Y5 | | (二) 股东会召集人：董事会 (三) 投票方式：本次股东会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结合 的方式 厦门建发股份有限公司 关于召开2025年第一次临时股东会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示 ...