Investment Rating - The industry view for Greater China Materials is rated as Attractive [6] Core Insights - Lithium demand may be pressured by trade tensions, with a market surplus expected to increase to approximately 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in April, leading to downward pressure on prices [2][3] - Uranium fundamentals remain solid despite a spot price correction, with term pricing stable at around US$80 per pound, indicating a constructive medium-to-long-term supply-demand outlook [3] - Solar glass prices are likely to stabilize due to supply responses, although pressures are expected to persist in the second half of 2025 as demand decreases [4][10] Summary by Sections Lithium - Demand in 1Q25 was stronger than expected due to EV trade-in programs and energy storage system (ESS) demand, but the peak season in 2Q25 is anticipated to be muted due to earlier demand pull-forward [2] - Tariff uncertainties have caused large EV makers to pause April order books, leading to a potential price bottom for lithium carbonate at approximately Rmb65,000 per ton [2] Uranium - The spot price has declined to around US$60 per pound, influenced by uncertainties regarding Russian enriched uranium and US tariffs, but the gap between spot and term prices has widened, limiting further downside [3] - Supply imbalances are expected to gradually reflect in the market, potentially pushing uranium prices higher and benefiting companies like CGN Mining [3] Solar Glass - A reasonable recovery was noted in 1Q25, with prices rebounding due to increased demand from module producers, but a decrease in demand is expected in June as rush installations conclude [4][10] - The near-term supply and demand for solar glass could remain solid, supporting earnings recovery for producers, but increased industry supply may pressure prices again in 2H25 [10] Rare Earth Magnets - An upward trend in rare earth prices is anticipated due to new smelting regulations and tariffs, which could tighten supply from imports, benefiting producers [11] Stock Ratings - Overweight-rated stocks include Xinyi Solar, CGN Mining, and various rare earth magnet producers, with significant upside potential noted for several companies [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth and profit recovery, driven by increased sales volume and pricing improvements in its products [4][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a substantial year-on-year revenue increase of 32.42% and a net profit increase of 108.52%, indicating strong operational performance [4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new lines expected to come online in 2025, enhancing its competitive position in both domestic and international markets [4][6]. Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from 15,855.77 million yuan in 2024 to 22,673.30 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.40% [6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is anticipated to rise from 2,444.81 million yuan in 2024 to 4,577.89 million yuan in 2027, with a notable profit growth rate of 36.53% in 2025 [6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.61 yuan in 2024 to 1.14 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is expected to improve from 25.03% in 2024 to 31.52% in 2027, reflecting better cost management and pricing power [6]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is enhancing its product mix with a focus on high-end products, which is expected to drive sales growth and improve margins [4]. - The establishment of overseas production bases in the U.S. and Egypt provides a strategic advantage, allowing the company to mitigate risks associated with international trade tariffs [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Jushi (600176.SH), a subsidiary of China National Building Material Group, has reported a strong rebound in its operating performance in Q1 2025, with significant increases in revenue and net profit compared to the previous year [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, China Jushi achieved revenue of 4.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 730 million yuan, doubling compared to the same period last year [2][4]. - The company's net profit for the previous year had seen consecutive declines over the past two years [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The significant growth in net profit is directly related to a market recovery, with increased demand in the main downstream application areas for fiberglass [2][4]. - The company noted that product sales volume increased, and prices have gradually moved out of the cyclical bottom [2][7]. Shareholder Activity - Major shareholders, including China National Building Material and Zhenstone Holding Group, have completed their shareholding increase commitments, investing a total of 1.6 billion yuan in the company's stock [2][10]. - The National Social Security Fund has also increased its holdings in China Jushi during the first quarter [3][11]. Industry Position - China Jushi is recognized as the world's largest fiberglass producer, with a significant market share and production capacity [2][8]. - The company has established a comprehensive global marketing network and production bases in key regions, including the U.S., Egypt, and various locations in China [8][9]. Research and Development - The company has consistently invested over 500 million yuan annually in R&D from 2021 to 2024, maintaining a strong focus on innovation and technology [9][10].

Group 1: Macro and Industry Insights - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on China's manufacturing industry is significant, with a shift from labor-intensive industries to equipment manufacturing, primarily targeting ASEAN markets [1] - As the export tax rates between China and ASEAN diverge, opportunities for Chinese companies to expand overseas will increase, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the US, such as mobile phones and automotive parts [1] Group 2: Banking Sector - The total scale of wealth management in China's banking sector decreased by 0.8 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2025 compared to the beginning of the year, with fluctuations in scale due to market volatility [2] - The asset allocation structure remains stable, with an increase in the proportion of interbank lending and repurchase agreements, while bond and deposit asset proportions have decreased [2] Group 3: High-end Manufacturing - In March, exports continued the growth trend from January, with notable increases in the export of lawn mowers and sewing machines, with year-on-year growth rates of 30% and 47% respectively [3] - The growth in exports is attributed to preemptive consumer behavior in the US due to tariff disruptions [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In Q1, the transaction volume of residential land in key cities increased, with the average transaction price in the core 30 cities rising by 24% year-on-year [4] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in these cities increased by 11.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the real estate market [4] Group 5: Precious Metals - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar, enhancing gold's monetary attributes, with increased investment demand observed [6] - The report maintains a positive outlook on gold stocks, particularly those with strong earnings potential [6] Group 6: Chemical and Petrochemical Industry - The report highlights continued optimism for domestic substitution trends and sectors benefiting from economic recovery, recommending investments in major oil companies and chemical firms [7] - Specific companies mentioned include China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and various agricultural chemical firms [7] Group 7: Company Performance - CNOOC Services reported a significant increase in net profit of 39.6% year-on-year for Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 10.8 billion yuan [8] - The company is expected to see continued profit growth in the coming years, with net profit projections of 3.8 billion, 4.2 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] Group 8: Environmental Sector - Oriental Electronics reported steady growth in major business revenues, with Q4 2024 net profit exceeding 200 million yuan [10] - The company is focusing on expanding its virtual power plant business, which is expected to contribute to future growth [10] Group 9: Telecommunications - China Mobile achieved a slight increase in revenue for Q1 2025, with total revenue of 263.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.02% [21] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [21]

Financial Overview - The company achieved significant financial growth in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 4.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.42% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 108.52% [2] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 744 million yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year increase of 342.45% [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin and net margin stood at 30.53% and 17.03%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 51.62% and 57.98% [3] - This indicates strong performance in cost control and high product added value [3] Cost Control - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 264 million yuan, accounting for 5.88% of revenue, which is a year-on-year decrease of 29.34% [4] - This demonstrates effective cost management by the company [4] Cash Flow and Debt Situation - The operating cash flow per share was -0.02 yuan, although it increased by 51.65% year-on-year, it remains negative [5] - Cash and cash equivalents were 2.612 billion yuan, down 31.49% from the same period last year, with a cash-to-current liabilities ratio of only 23.06%, indicating cash flow pressure [5] - The company had interest-bearing liabilities of 11.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.28%, but the interest-bearing asset-liability ratio was still high at 21.29% [5] - Accounts receivable amounted to 2.76 billion yuan, representing 112.88% of profit, highlighting concerns regarding debt and receivables collection [5] Business Model and Capital Operations - Since its listing, the company has raised a total of 7.951 billion yuan and distributed a total of 9.626 billion yuan in dividends, resulting in a dividend-to-financing ratio of 1.21, indicating a proactive shareholder return policy [6] - However, the company's performance is primarily driven by capital expenditures, necessitating further evaluation of the reasonableness of capital projects and funding pressures [6] - Overall, the company demonstrated strong profitability in Q1 2025, but cash flow management and debt control remain areas of concern [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jushi (600176.SH) with a target price of 12.00 CNY [6]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, China Jushi reported total revenue of 4.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million CNY, up 109% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in sales volume is driven by the high demand in the wind power sector, particularly for wind power yarn, which has seen a significant increase in sales [2]. - The electronic fabric business also experienced substantial growth, with revenue reaching approximately 750 million CNY, a 46% increase year-on-year [3]. - The outlook for 2025 emphasizes the importance of wind power yarn demand and the progress of new production capacity in the electronic fabric industry [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.5 billion CNY, with a net profit of 730 million CNY and a non-recurring net profit of 740 million CNY, reflecting increases of 32%, 109%, and 342% respectively year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the company is projected to improve, with expectations of price increases for certain long-term contract products in 2025 [4]. Business Segments - **Roving Yarn Business**: Revenue from roving yarn products is estimated at 3.6 billion CNY, a 29% increase year-on-year, with a sales volume of 800,000 tons, up 16% year-on-year [2]. - **Electronic Fabric Business**: Revenue from electronic fabric is estimated at 750 million CNY, a 46% increase year-on-year, with a sales volume of 250 million meters, up 33% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The report highlights that the core variable for the roving yarn industry in 2025 will be the demand for wind power yarn, driven by rapid growth in new wind power installations [4]. - The company is expected to maintain its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 14x for 2025 [4].

粗纱业务：销量两位数增长受益于风电高景气度，单季度吨盈利环比提升 测算公司 25Q1粗纱产品收入规模约36亿元，同比+29%，其中吨收入约4500元，同比+11%， 销量 80 万 吨，同比 + 16 %，环比 +4%，判断主要受益于风电、热塑短切、合股纱等产品销量增速较快，特别是风 电纱受益于风电行业抢装带来的高景气度； 测算粗纱产品扣非净利润约 6.2亿元，同比+292%，吨扣非净 利润接近800元，同比+238%，环比+16%。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 中国巨石发布 202 5 年 一季报 。 2 5Q1 ，公司实现营业总收入 /归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 45 / 7.3 / 7.4 亿元，同比 + 32 %/ +109 %/ ...

Real Estate - In Q1, the land auction heat in key cities continues to rise, with the average transaction price of residential land in the core 30 cities increasing by 24% year-on-year [3] - The total area of residential land sold in 100 cities reached 41.97 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with a floor price of 7,373 yuan per square meter, up 15.1% year-on-year [3] - The total area of residential land sold in 30 cities was 21.34 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with a floor price of 13,080 yuan per square meter, up 24.1% year-on-year [3] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in the core 30 cities was 18.7%, an increase of 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] Machinery - In March, exports continued the growth trend from January, with notable performance in lawn mowers and sewing machines [3] - The export growth rates for tractors and mining machinery in March were 21% and 24% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Cumulative exports of electric tools and lawn mowers to North America from January to March increased by 20% and 30% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The export of industrial sewing machines increased by 47% year-on-year [3] China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) - In Q1 2025, CNOOC reported a significant increase in drilling workload, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 39.6% year-on-year [4] - The total operating revenue for Q1 was 10.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, but a decrease of 26.25% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The average price of Brent crude oil in Q1 was $74.98 per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter [4] China Jushi - In Q1 2025, China Jushi's profit per ton for its roving yarn business improved sequentially, with sales maintaining rapid growth [5] - The profitability of the electronic cloth business increased significantly year-on-year, although it saw a slight decline quarter-on-quarter [5] - The core variable for the roving yarn industry in 2025 is the demand for wind power yarn, driven by rapid growth in new wind power installations [5] Aokrey - Aokrey's overseas market expansion showed significant results, with notable improvement in profitability in Q1 2025 [6] - The company reported a total operating revenue of 1.7 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, down 15.68% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the operating revenue was 243 million yuan, an increase of 0.58% year-on-year, and net profit was 52 million yuan, up 15.33% year-on-year [6] Giant Technology - In 2024, Giant Technology achieved a revenue of 14.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, and a net profit of 2.304 billion yuan, up 36.2% year-on-year [7] - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was also 2.304 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.7% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 32.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Sanhuan Group - Sanhuan Group reported steady growth in performance, with operating revenue of 7.375 billion yuan in 2024, up 28.78% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 2.19 billion yuan, an increase of 38.55% year-on-year [8] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.09% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, driven by strong demand in the wind power sector and increased sales in electronic fabric products [2][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 730 million yuan, up 109% [2]. - The company's net profit excluding non-recurring items was 740 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 342% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - **Roving Business**: Revenue from roving products is estimated at 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%. The sales volume reached 800,000 tons, up 16% year-on-year, benefiting from the high demand in the wind power sector [3]. - The profit from roving products, excluding non-recurring items, is estimated at 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 292%, with per-ton profit close to 800 yuan, up 238% year-on-year [3]. - **Electronic Fabric Business**: Revenue from electronic fabric is estimated at 750 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%. The sales volume reached 250 million meters, up 33% year-on-year [4]. - The profit from electronic fabric, excluding non-recurring items, is estimated at 100 million yuan, with per-meter profit showing significant growth year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the roving business driven by increasing demand for wind power yarn, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics in the fiberglass industry [5]. - The company plans to enhance its production capacity in electronic fabric, with a new production line expected to commence construction in 2025 and be operational by 2026, which will increase annual production capacity to approximately 1.3 billion meters [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 15.2 CNY [5][9]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.479 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million CNY, up 108.52% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 744 million CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 342.45% [1][2]. - The company's gross margin improved both sequentially and year-on-year, reaching 30.53%, which is an increase of 1.95 percentage points sequentially and 10.4 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to price increases for long-term contract products and a decrease in production costs [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in the fiberglass industry, with a continuous optimization of product structure and a rising proportion of high-end products. The production costs for main products have been consistently decreasing [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 19.038 billion CNY, 20.988 billion CNY, and 22.450 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.07%, 10.24%, and 6.96% respectively. The net profits for the same period are expected to be 3.047 billion CNY, 3.581 billion CNY, and 3.993 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.64%, 17.52%, and 11.51% respectively [4][11]. - The company’s sales net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 17.03%, an increase of 6.25 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins and reduced expense ratios [3]. Market Position and Outlook - The company benefits from a favorable industry cycle, with increasing demand and price elasticity expected in 2025, particularly in the wind power and new energy vehicle sectors [4]. - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage with a deep moat in the global fiberglass market, supported by its extensive production lines and continuous product innovation [7].