中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，2026年去产能效果有望显现，行业供需格局改善预期增强，价格 有望回升，企业盈利有望逐步修复。此外，水泥龙头企业加速海外产能布局，将贡献更多业绩增量，拉 开龙头企业盈利差距。玻璃纤维下游新兴产业发展势头较好，AI算力需求驱动下，特种玻纤纱高景气 有望持续；城市更新驱动消费建材在旧改、修缮市场的需求释放，消费升级将带动高品质绿色建材需求 提升；终端需求改善预期较弱，"反内卷"有望加速玻璃供给侧优化。 消费建材：10月家装零售需求走弱，高品质存量需求托底消费建材市场 2025年1-10月建筑及装潢材料类零售额同比增长0.5%，其中10月单月同比下降8.3%，环比下降2.1%。 随着地产销售的走弱，存量家装市场需求有所减弱，且因新房需求大幅缩减，今年消费建材需求不及往 年同期。后续城市更新战略的持续落地将释放修缮、旧改等需求，"好房子"建设标准的推进将提升高品 质绿色建材的市场渗透率。 浮法玻璃：供给缩减，但提振效果有限，11月价格继续承压 11月浮法玻璃市场刚需变化不明显；月产能减少，行业总供给收缩；企业库存虽有所下降，但仍处于历 史高位；浮法玻璃价格进一步下滑。后续来看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the construction and building materials sectors [10]. Core Viewpoints - The construction and building materials sector is expected to experience a spring rally in 2026, driven by improvements in construction PMI, order volume, and favorable market conditions such as a later Spring Festival and strong domestic excavator sales [13][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend and price-increasing stocks, recommending companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as traditional building materials with price increase potential [13][19]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: sustainable growth in renovation, thorough industry clearing in construction materials, and opportunities in high-quality leading companies in various segments [14][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a potential spring rally for the building materials sector, supported by fiscal improvements and strong domestic machinery sales [19]. - Historical data shows that the building materials index has a high probability of outperforming the market in Q1, with a 57% chance of rising based on past performance [15]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China Chemical, China National Materials, and Xinyi Glass, with target prices and buy ratings [10][38]. - Specific recommendations include: - China Chemical (601117 CH) - Target Price: 12.05 - China National Materials (600970 CH) - Target Price: 14.23 - Xinyi Glass (868 HK) - Target Price: 9.54 - Others include China United Plastic, Jinggong Steel Structure, and Dongfang Yuhong [10][38]. Market Dynamics - Recent data indicates a 1.2% week-on-week increase in national cement prices, while the average price of float glass has risen by 2.3% [2][28]. - The report notes that the domestic float glass market is stabilizing, with some regions experiencing price increases due to supply constraints [28][30]. - The electronic fabric market is also showing signs of price increases, driven by demand from PCB clients [25][33]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand in the cleanroom engineering and special electronic fabric sectors, with a focus on companies that can adapt to new production capabilities and traditional industry upgrades [14][19]. - The construction sector is expected to benefit from urban renewal initiatives and the ongoing recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on renovation and construction materials [21][22].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 阶段性关注内需链条 2025 年 12 月 08 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 2024/12/9 2025/4/8 2025/8/6 2025/12/4 建筑材料 沪深300 ◼ 大宗建材方面： 相关研究 《建筑业 PMI 回升，基建或成为短期 稳经济抓手》 2025-11-30 《四季度高基数下寻找 alpha》 2025-11-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2025.11.29–2025.12.5，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 1.55%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 1.28%、0.72%，超 额收益分别为 0.27%、 ...

周期半月谈 - 聚焦资源品与行业自律 20251207 摘要 有色金属价格将轮动上涨，降息和去美元化长期趋势不变，但短期受风 险偏好扰动。黄金市场前景乐观，受央行购金、ETF 购进及黄金代币化 推动，预计 2026 年黄金价格上涨空间可期，黄金股票估值具吸引力。 铜价短期暴涨因美国关税预期导致 LME 和 COMEX 价差扩大，美国市场 定价脱离基本面。2026 年美国虹吸效应或使非美地区面临紧仓风险， 但若 LME 挤仓或关税预期下降，美国可能重回基本面定价，带来阶段性 过剩风险。 铝价跟随铜价走势，全球电力紧张影响供应。国内产能见顶、海外能源 成本高企及投资周期约束使全球电解铝供应弹性减弱，预计 2025- 2030 年供给增速持续下滑，需牛市强化价格激励，偶发事件亦推动铝 价。 建材行业普遍经历盈利压力下的供给收缩，推荐消费建材和玻纤龙头。 细分赛道企业通过产品差异化获得超额利润，浮法玻璃龙头有望通过自 发冷修实现供给平衡并带动盈利修复。 Q&A 对于有色金属行业的整体看法是什么？ 我们继续保持对有色金属市场的乐观态度，认为其行情将持续波澜壮阔。受益 于江西地区的发展以及中美两国在 2026 年的积极财 ...

Market Overview - In November, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a trend of high-low switching, with the ChiNext Index down 4.23% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 5.23%[5] - The market's focus shifted towards defensive sectors as funds moved from high-valuation growth stocks to low-valuation cyclical stocks and dividend assets[5] Investment Strategy - December's market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with a short-term oscillating structure anticipated[5] - Key events include the Central Economic Work Conference and various industry conferences that may create investment opportunities[5] Key Investment Themes - Focus on "anti-involution" policies which are expected to improve industry performance, particularly in resource sectors benefiting from rising commodity prices[5] - Emphasis on overseas expansion themes, with Chinese high-end manufacturing expected to gain market share globally[5] Recommended Stocks - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) projected EPS growth from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.83 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 23.62 to 10.10[7] - Electric Power Investment (002128.SZ) expected to see EPS rise from 2.38 in 2024 to 2.75 in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10.9 to 9.45[27] Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue is projected to grow from 303.64 billion yuan in 2024 to 381.84 billion yuan in 2027, with a net profit increase from 32.05 billion yuan to 75.22 billion yuan[18] - Electric Power Investment's revenue is expected to increase from 298.59 billion yuan in 2024 to 371.25 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit rising from 5.34 billion yuan to 6.17 billion yuan[27] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected policy changes, underperformance in commercialization, and slower-than-expected product development[5]

Core Viewpoint - The fiberglass sector continues to strengthen, with international composite material "20cm" hitting the daily limit, leading to a surge in stocks of companies such as Honghe Technology, China National Building Material, Changhai Co., Shandong Fiberglass, China Jushi, and Jinan Guojiji [1] Company Summary - International composite material "20cm" has reached its daily limit, indicating strong market performance [1] - Honghe Technology, China National Building Material, Changhai Co., Shandong Fiberglass, China Jushi, and Jinan Guojiji have all experienced stock price increases in response to the market trend [1]

华源证券研报指出，中国巨石两大股东合力增持，彰显中长期发展信心。公司两大股东基于对公司未来 发展前景的坚定信心及中长期投资价值的认可，为增强投资者对公司的投资信心，促进公司持续、稳 定、健康发展，同时宣布增持股份。此外，承诺在此次增持计划实施期间内不减持所持有公司股份，进 一步彰显中建材和振石集团对公司中长期发展的信心。公司背靠中国建材集团，是全世界玻纤行业规模 最大、品种规格最齐全的专业制造商之一，截至2024年底，公司在全球拥有六大生产基地，在产玻纤纱 年产能近300万吨。另外，公司入局高端电子布领域，有望带来戴维斯双击。维持"增持"评级。 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 04 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月04日 华源晨会精粹 20251204 固定收益 关注大幅调整后的长债配置价值——12 月债市投资策略：近日，超长债表 现格外疲软，类似非银卖出踩踏。债市供给问题较为突出。未来超长债存在供求失 衡的压力，问题的解决建议从供需两端发力。当前，政策利率进一步下调的条件或 已具备。年末债市行情可期。债市走势可能阶段性与基本面脱钩，但无法长期脱钩。 10Y 以内政府债券看银行自营，30Y 看险资配置及交易盘，5Y 资本债看债基，3Y 以下信用债看银行理财。当前，长债收益率来到年内高点，经济下行压力上升，做 多的胜率较高，耐心等待政策利率下调。银行负债成本较快下行，A 股上市银行整 体 25Q3 单季度计息负债成本率已降至 1.63%，政府债券配置价值凸显，信贷需求 较弱，有望支撑银行大幅增加债券投资。此外，理财规模增长较快，且理财债券持 仓比例较低，有望对 3Y 以内信用债构成支撑。 风险提示：出口可能超预期，导致债市调整；理财及债基等监管及税收政策可能超 预期，带来债市冲击 ...

证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 玻璃玻纤 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 04 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 01 | 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 15.74 | | | | 一 年 内 / | 最 | 高 | 最 | 低 | | | | 17.58/10.70 | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 63,009.37 | | | | 流通市值（ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Views - Focus on the expectation of glass cold repairs and emphasize high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] - Cement prices continue to decline, while glass inventory has slightly decreased month-on-month [7][8] - The real estate policy outlook is improving, suggesting a focus on high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices have continued to decline, with a current average price of 355.00 yuan/ton, down 0.65 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 77.10 yuan/ton year-on-year [26] - The cement market is entering the off-season, with a national shipment rate of approximately 45%, down 0.3 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [7][26] - The northern market is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, while some southern regions show slight recovery [7][25] Glass - The domestic float glass market prices have stabilized after a decline, with a current average price of 60.59 yuan/weight box, down 0.59 yuan/weight box month-on-month and down 15.51 yuan/weight box year-on-year [39] - The production capacity of float glass has slightly decreased, with 218 out of 283 production lines currently in operation, and a daily melting capacity of 156,155 tons [8][36] - Inventory levels in key monitored provinces have decreased, with a total inventory of 59.32 million weight boxes, down 730,000 weight boxes month-on-month [38][39] Consumer Building Materials - High-quality leading companies in consumer building materials are expected to have bottom value, with recommendations for companies like SanKeTree, TuBaoBao, and WeiXing New Materials [6] - From a cyclical bottom and structural optimization perspective, companies in waterproofing and coatings are recommended due to significant supply exits and increased market share for leading companies [6] - If market conditions improve, the expected price performance ranking is waterproofing > coatings > pipes/hardware/gypsum board [6] Special Fabrics - Attention is drawn to the opportunities in AI special fabrics after recent adjustments, with domestic leaders like ZhongCai Technology benefiting from domestic substitution trends [9]