上 市 公 司 基础化工 2024 年03月 20 日 万华化学 (600309) 公 司 研 究 ——业绩符合市场预期，新建及储备产能释放加速规模扩 / 公 司 张，产品景气底部持续回暖 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入 投资要点： （维持） 证  公司发布2023年报：2023年实现营业收入1753.61亿元（YoY+5.92%），归母净利润168.16亿 券 元（YoY+3.59%），扣非归母净利润164.39亿元（YoY+4.06%）；其中Q4实现营业收入428.07 研 市场数据： 2024年03月19日 亿元（YoY+21.8%，QoQ-4.72%）,归母净利润41.13亿元（YoY+56.65%，QoQ-0.53%），扣非 究 收盘价（元） 78.58 归母净利润40.11亿元（YoY+66.61%，QoQ-2.60%），业绩符合市场预期。本次公司拟向全体股 报 一年内最高/最低（元） 99.78/66.78 告 市净率 2.8 东每10股派发16.25现金红利（含税），共计分配利润总额为51亿元，约占归母净利润30.33%。 息率（分红/股价） - 同时公司出台未来三年股东回报规划 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 基础化工/原材料 [ T able_Main[ 万ITnaf 华bol]e 化_Ti 学tle] [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 ( 600309) 上次评级： 增持 Q4 业绩符合预期，盈利稳定未来可期 目 标 价 95.27 格： 上次预测： 95.27 ——万华化学23年报点评 公 当前价格： 78.99 司 钟浩(分析师) 沈唯(分析师) 2024.03.20 更 021-38038445 0755-23976795 zhonghao027638@gtjas.co shenwei024936@gtjas.com [交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 新 证书编号 m S0 880522120008 S0880523080006 52周内股价区间（元） 67.70-98.13 报 总市值（百万元） 248,009 告 本报告导读： 总股本/流通 A 股（百万 3,140/3,140 公司23年业绩符合预期，考虑到24-25年新增产能较多，维持增持评级。 股流）通 B股/H股（百万股） 0/0 流通股比例 100% 日均成交量（百万股 ...

公司研究 证 券研究 报 告 聚氨酯 2024年03月20日 万 华化学（600309）2023年报点评 强 推 （维持） 经营业绩稳步改善，新材料项目逐步进入兑 目标价：101.85元 现期 当前价：78.58元 事项： 华创证券研究所  公司发布 23年报，23年实现收入1753.61亿元，同比增长 5.92%；实现归母 证券分析师：杨晖 净利润168.16亿元，同比增长3.59%。其中Q4单季度实现收入428.07亿元， 同比增长21.80%；实现归母净利润41.13亿元，同比增长56.65%。公司计划 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 每股派发现金红利人民币1.625元（含税），合计分配利润约51亿元。 执业编号：S0360522050001  分板块来看，23 年公司实现聚氨酯、石化、精细化工品及新材料业务收入 证券分析师：侯星宇 674/693/238 亿元，同比分别+7%/-0.4%/+18%；实现销量 489/472/159 万吨， 邮箱：houxingyu@hcyjs.com 同比分别+17%/+5%/+68%；实现平均售价 13780/14688/14991 元/吨，同比分 执 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year improvement in Q4 performance, with new production capacity contributing to sustained growth [3] - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 175.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.82 billion yuan, up 3.59% year-on-year [3] - The fourth quarter saw operating revenue of 42.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.80%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.69% [3] Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - In Q4, the main product prices declined, but the polyurethane segment saw improved production and sales compared to the previous quarter [4] - The average prices for polymer MDI, pure MDI, and TDI in Q4 were 15,673 yuan/ton, 20,866 yuan/ton, and 17,110 yuan/ton, with respective changes of +5.61%, -1.85%, and -5.34% [4] - The polyurethane segment's production, sales, and revenue for 2023 were 4.99 million tons, 4.89 million tons, and 67.38 billion yuan, showing year-on-year changes of +19.95%, +16.99%, and +7.14% [4] Future Outlook - The demand for MDI is expected to improve due to the "old-for-new" policy and anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. [4] - The company is advancing the construction and commissioning of new MDI and TDI facilities, which is expected to enhance the supply landscape [4] - New projects in the new materials sector are projected to be operational in 2024, contributing to a comprehensive industrial chain in the vitamin and flavoring sectors [4] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 20.28 billion yuan, 25.18 billion yuan, and 28.24 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.6%, 24.2%, and 12.2% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 2024年03月19日 万华化学（600309.SH） 全年业绩稳健，高端新材料未来成长可期 公司发布 2023年年度报告。公司 2023年实现营业收入 1754亿元，同比 买入（维持） 增长 5.9%，归母净利润 168亿元，同比增长 3.6%，扣非归母净利润 164 股票信息 亿元，同比增长 4.1%；其中 Q4单季度实现营业收入 428亿元，环比下滑 行业 化学制品 4.7%，归母净利润 41.1 亿元，环比下滑 0.5%，扣非归母净利润 40.1 亿 前次评级 买入 元，环比下滑2.6%。 3月19日收盘价(元) 78.58 聚氨酯价差处于修复通道，福建基地贡献增量。2023 年聚氨酯板块实现营 总市值(百万元) 246,721.29 收/毛利 674/187亿元，同比+7.1/21.4%，产能：截至 2023年末公司聚氨 总股本(百万股) 3,139.75 酯板块产能达 516 万吨，其中 MDI/TDI/聚醚产品分别为 310/95/111 万 其中自由流通股(%) 100.00 吨，分别同比 2022年新增 5/30/0万吨；价格：聚合 MDI、纯 MDI和 TD ...

公司发布2023年年报，2023 年实现营收1753.61 亿元，同比增长 5.92%，归母净利润 168.16 亿元，同比增长 3.59%，业绩符合预 期。 随着国内外经济的复苏，公司经营保持稳健。公司聚氨酯板块实 现收入673.86 亿元，同比增长 7.14%；石化业务实现收入693.28 亿元，同比减少-0.44%；精细化工以及新材料板块实现收入238.36 亿元，同比增长 18.45%。费用方面， 2023 年司销售费用13.46 亿 元，同比增长16.48%；管理费用24.50亿元，同比增长 24.61%； 公司研发费用40.80 亿元，同比增长19.32%，公司维持持续高水 平研发投入，为公司长远布局构建良好的技术基础。 聚氨酯、石化产品价格有所下行，公司经营稳健。纯 MDI 产品： 全年消费需求向好，下游主要行业外贸、内需订单增加，全年市场 均价在20000 元/吨左右。聚合MDI 产品：随着国际海运费逐步回 落到合理水平，下游冰箱、冷柜行业出口业务增长明显，但投资需 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 求不及预期，全年市场均价在16000 元/吨左右。TDI 产品:在家居 103.00 3,00 ...

万华化学（600309.SH）2023年年报点评 销量和利润双增，新一轮增长蓄力待发 2024年03月19日 ➢ 事件概述。2024 年3 月 18 日，万华化学发布 2023 年报，2023 年公 推荐 维持评级 司实现营业收入 1753.61 亿元，同比增长 5.92%，实现归母净利润 168.16 当前价格： 78.99元 亿元，同比增长3.59%，扣非归母净利164.39亿元，同比增长4.06%。2023 年四季度实现销售收入428.07亿元，同比增长21.80%，实现扣非归母净利 [Table_Author] 润40.11亿元，同比增长66.61%。 ➢ 聚氨酯和精细化学品业务销量大增，石化业务将迎来重要项目投产。聚 氨酯板块 2023 年实现产品销量 489 万吨，同比增长 16.99%，精细化学品 板块实现产品销量159万吨，同比增长67.37%，增量显著。2023年第四季 度聚氨酯板块实现销量 130 万吨，同比增长 25.00%，精细化学品板块实现 销量42万吨，同比增长55.56%。这主要得益于MDI、TDI、聚醚、改性、 分析师 刘海荣 PC、PMMA产品等产品的新产能持续投产和市场份额 ...

Compa n y U pda te Ch in a Res ear ch De p t . 2024年03月19日 万华化学(600309.SH) Buy 买进 费倩然 H70507@capital.com.tw 新产能投放驱动业绩增长，看好盈利持续修复 目标价(元) 98 事件：公司发布2023年年报，全年实现营收1753.61亿元，yoy+5.92%；归母 公司基本资讯 净利润168.14亿元，yoy+3.57%，与业绩快报一致。Q4单季实现营收428.07亿 产业别 化工 元，yoy+21.80%,qoq-4.72%；归母净利润41.11亿元，yoy+56.58%，qoq-0.76%。 A股价(2024/3/18) 78.99 上证指数(2024/3/18) 3084.93 此外，公司公布2023年利润分配方案，计划每10股派16.25元，股息率为2.06% 股价12个月高/低 99.78/66.78 点评：新产能投放推动销量增长，在主营产品价格下滑背景下，公司以量补 总发行股数(百万) 3139.75 价，仍维持全年营收业绩同比提升。Q4淡季业绩环比微降，公司盈利韧性凸 A股数(百万) 3139.7 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Buy" [1][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.9% in 2023, reaching 175.36 billion yuan, and a net profit of 16.82 billion yuan, up 3.6% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a significant revenue increase of 21.8% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 56.6% [1][5][12] - The polyurethane downstream demand showed slight growth in 2023, although prices decreased. The company has MDI and TDI capacities of 3.1 million tons and 0.95 million tons, respectively, with plans for capacity expansion [1][9] - The overall price of petrochemical products declined in 2023, influenced by falling raw material prices, including a decrease of approximately 10.77% for pure benzene and 25.09% for coal [1][11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 175.36 billion yuan and a net profit of 16.82 billion yuan. The fourth quarter alone generated a revenue of 42.81 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.11 billion yuan [1][5][12] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2023 was 16.9%, and the net profit margin was 10.4%, both showing year-on-year improvements [1][5] Market Dynamics - The global polyurethane market faced a mixed scenario with domestic demand recovering gradually while external demand remained weak. However, demand from the refrigerator, automotive, and other industries contributed to slight growth [1][9] - The average market prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in 2023 were approximately 20,000 yuan/ton, 16,000 yuan/ton, and 16,500 yuan/ton, respectively [1][9] Raw Material Prices - The prices of key raw materials decreased in 2023, with pure benzene down by 10.77%, coal by 25.09%, and propane and butane by approximately 21.98% and 21.39%, respectively [1][11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable profit margins as it continues to advance new projects. The profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 19.38 billion yuan, 22.47 billion yuan, and 23.34 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.17 yuan, 7.16 yuan, and 7.43 yuan [1][12]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was approximately ¥175.36 billion, representing a 5.92% increase from ¥165.57 billion in 2022[14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was approximately ¥16.82 billion, a 3.59% increase from ¥16.23 billion in 2022[14]. - The total assets increased by 25.99% to approximately ¥253.04 billion at the end of 2023, compared to ¥200.84 billion at the end of 2022[14]. - The weighted average return on equity for 2023 was 20.42%, down 2.33 percentage points from 22.75% in 2022[15]. - The company reported a total of ¥376.91 million in non-recurring gains and losses for 2023, with significant contributions from government subsidies and asset disposals[17]. - The company achieved a net profit of ¥441.02 million from its wholly-owned subsidiary Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., with total revenue of ¥335.20 million[86]. - The company reported a net profit of ¥195.71 million from its controlling subsidiary Wanhua Chemical (Fujian) Co., with total revenue of ¥111.33 million[86]. - The company achieved significant cost reductions in its acetylene production chain in Sichuan, with improved performance and quality in biodegradable plastics[26]. Dividend and Profit Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 16.25 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 5,102,088,267.25 CNY, based on a total share capital of 3,139,746,626 shares as of December 31, 2023[2]. - The company has a remaining undistributed profit of 45,627,452,920.13 CNY to be carried forward for future distribution[2]. - The cash dividend amount (including tax) for the year was ¥5,102,088,267.25, representing 30.34% of the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in the consolidated financial statements[128]. Audit and Compliance - Deloitte Huayong Certified Public Accountants issued a standard unqualified audit report for the company[2]. - The company’s financial report is guaranteed to be true, accurate, and complete by its responsible persons[2]. - The company has established a comprehensive compliance audit mechanism, receiving recognition as a "National Advanced Internal Audit Collective" by the Chinese Internal Audit Association[31]. - The company has not faced any penalties from securities regulatory authorities in the past three years[105]. - The company has not reported any overdue interest-bearing debts as of the end of the reporting period, indicating effective debt management[187]. Risk Management - The company reported no significant risks that could adversely affect its future development strategy and operational goals during the reporting period[4]. - The company has not disclosed any significant adverse risks that could impact its future strategies[4]. - The company conducted a dynamic update execution plan for risk management, organizing 11 training and certification sessions in 2023[92]. Innovation and R&D - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 19.32% to CNY 4.08 billion, indicating a strong focus on innovation[44]. - The company applied for 1,120 domestic and international invention patents in 2023, with 982 granted, showcasing its commitment to innovation[28]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development through the application of AI and big data technologies[31]. - The company invested CNY 4.081 billion in R&D for 2023, focusing on enhancing its leading business, breakthroughs in new chemical materials, and battery business development[59]. Operational Efficiency - The company completed 46 major repairs and technical upgrades across its Yantai Industrial Park in 2023, achieving record annual production for multiple products[22]. - The company achieved a 50% efficiency improvement in procurement processes through the establishment of a centralized procurement delivery center and the integration of a procurement platform[31]. - The company successfully implemented ERP across 75 global subsidiaries, marking a significant advancement in digitalization efforts[31]. - The company has established a global integrated supply chain logistics management platform to improve operational efficiency[41]. Market Position and Growth - The company ranked 18th in the 2023 global chemical companies list published by C&EN, reflecting its strong market position[34]. - The company is focusing on internationalization and independent innovation to enhance global operational capabilities and core competitiveness[19]. - The company plans to enhance its battery materials business as a second growth curve, focusing on innovation and market leadership[40]. - The company is developing a 1.2 million tons/year ethylene project, which will enhance its high-end polyolefin production capabilities[36]. Environmental Responsibility - The company invested ¥2,881.98 million in environmental protection during the reporting period[133]. - The company has implemented advanced pollution control technologies, emphasizing source reduction through high-standard design and construction of pollution control facilities[136]. - The company aims for 50% clean electricity coverage from joint ventures and investments in clean energy projects by 2030, focusing on wind, solar, and nuclear energy[146]. - The company achieved a reduction of 2,230,000 tons in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions through various carbon reduction measures, including the use of clean energy and low-carbon raw material substitution[144]. Talent Development - The company recruited over 5,000 new employees in 2023, emphasizing its commitment to talent development[31]. - The company conducted training for 9,027 personnel throughout the year, enhancing workforce capabilities[31]. - The company trained a total of 5,309 employees across various training programs, including leadership, professional skills, and new employee onboarding[122]. - The company is facing a talent supply risk due to a shortage of leadership talent and a high proportion of new employees[92]. Governance and Board Structure - The company has a diverse board with members having extensive experience in various sectors, enhancing strategic decision-making capabilities[98]. - The total compensation for the board members during the reporting period amounted to 1,436.83 million CNY, with an average of 737.11 million CNY per individual[98]. - The remuneration decision process is determined by the company's board of directors and shareholders' meeting[102]. - The company has appointed a new independent director, Ma Yuguo, following the resignation of Zhang Jin due to personal reasons[105]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders as of the end of the reporting period is 141,795, an increase from 137,124 at the end of the previous month[168]. - The controlling shareholder is Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., established on February 12, 2009, focusing on state-owned asset management and investment[172]. - The report indicates that the top ten shareholders have not changed significantly compared to the previous period[171]. Financial Management - The company has maintained a consistent credit rating across all issued bonds, reflecting its stable financial health and risk management practices[186]. - The company has not changed the use of funds raised from the bond issuance during the reporting period, ensuring transparency in financial management[185]. - Wanhua Chemical Group's financial statements for 2023 were audited and found to fairly reflect the company's financial position and operating results[189].