Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market performance, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized around 3500 points, driven by policy expectations and potential government stimulus measures [1][2] - Analysts from Citigroup predict that the upcoming Politburo meeting will not revise the budget or increase government bond quotas, but will focus on implementing existing policies to support consumption and the real estate sector [1][2] - The article highlights that the real estate market has shown signs of recovery, with a potential for further gains in the coming weeks, based on historical trends of policy-driven market movements [3][5] Group 2 - The banking sector is expected to see an increase in dividend yields due to upcoming dividend distributions, which could enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks [7] - The article notes that the insurance sector is adjusting its investment strategies to favor high-dividend assets, which may impact the overall market dynamics [7] - The article mentions that the real estate index has risen by 9.69% since June 23, indicating a positive trend relative to the Shanghai Composite Index [3][5] Group 3 - The article outlines the upcoming key events in the financial calendar, including the Politburo meeting and FOMC meetings, which are expected to influence market sentiment and policy direction [2] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic indicators and policy announcements as they could significantly impact market performance in the second half of the year [2][10] - The article suggests that sectors such as renewable energy, construction materials, and industrial metals are likely to benefit from current market trends and policy support [15][18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a surge in positive earnings forecasts, with a significant number of companies reporting substantial year-on-year profit increases for the first half of 2025 [2][5]. Earnings Forecasts - A total of 510 A-share companies have released earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with 13 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 800% [2]. - Limin Co. anticipates a net profit of 260 million to 280 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 719.25% to 782.27% [5]. - Spring Autumn Electronics expects a net profit of 90 million to 110 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 236.05% to 310.72% [5]. - Jinjilin forecasts a net profit of 106 million yuan, up 222.36% year-on-year [5]. - Beihua Co. projects a net profit of 98 million to 111 million yuan, indicating a growth of 182.72% to 220.23% [6]. - Jiuyuan Yinhai expects a net profit of approximately 26.49 million to 32.25 million yuan, a growth of 130% to 180% [7]. - Guojin Securities anticipates a net profit of 1.092 billion to 1.137 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 140% to 150% [7]. - Lanqi Technology expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, a growth of 85.50% to 102.36% [7]. - Weilan Lithium Core forecasts a net profit of 300 million to 360 million yuan, indicating a growth of 79.29% to 115.15% [7]. Gold Sector Performance - The gold sector is witnessing a significant earnings explosion, with companies like Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Hunan Gold, and Western Gold reporting substantial profit increases [4][11]. - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 54% [8]. - Zhongjin Gold anticipates a net profit of 2.614 billion to 2.875 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 50% to 65% [11]. - Hunan Gold projects a net profit of approximately 613 million to 701 million yuan, indicating a growth of 40% to 60% [12]. - Western Gold expects a net profit of approximately 130 million to 160 million yuan, a growth of 96.35% to 141.66% [13]. Market Conditions - The international gold price has been fluctuating at high levels, with COMEX gold closing at $3,370.3 per ounce as of July 11 [14]. - Global geopolitical conflicts are increasing uncertainty in the market, enhancing gold's safe-haven appeal and potentially boosting demand for gold assets [14].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds for long-term stable investment and to strengthen long-cycle assessments of state-owned commercial insurance companies. The assessment method for "return on net assets" has been adjusted to include annual, 3-year, and 5-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [1][5][16] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting digital transformation in manufacturing and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through pilot programs and guidelines, aiming to enhance the digital capabilities of key industries [2][3] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to focus on strategic emerging industries and enhance their role in technological innovation and industrial control [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance allocated 197 million yuan to support agricultural disaster recovery in seven provinces affected by floods and typhoons, focusing on crop replanting and infrastructure repair [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration announced plans to increase the green power consumption ratio for steel, cement, polysilicon industries, and new data centers by 2025 [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released guidelines for the "Science and Technology Innovation Growth Layer," allowing 32 unprofitable companies to enter this new tier without additional listing thresholds [5] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated investigations into companies suspected of financial misconduct, including Yuandao Communication for false financial reporting and Jiaoda Anlian for information disclosure violations [7][32] - The National Energy Administration reported that the new energy capacity connected to the grid exceeded 203 million kilowatts in the first half of the year, marking a 108.7% year-on-year increase [20] - The automotive industry in China is experiencing stability compared to other countries, with a noted decline of only 12% in the passenger car market from 2018 to 2020, indicating strong macroeconomic support [21]

Core Viewpoint - The gold industry in A-share listed companies is experiencing significant growth in performance due to sustained high gold prices, as indicated by recent earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Hunan Gold expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 613 million to 701 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60% [4]. - Western Gold anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 130 million to 160 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 96.35% to 141.66% [4]. - Zhongjin Gold forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 2.614 billion to 2.875 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65% [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Trends - As of July 11, 2023, COMEX gold closed at 3,370.3 USD per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.34% [2][7]. - The gold price is supported by investment demand, central bank purchases, and technological uses, with mining gold accounting for 74.3% of total gold supply in the first quarter of 2025 [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - 95% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since 2019, up 17 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - The "Gold+" investment products are gaining attention as they provide stability and enhance the resilience of multi-asset portfolios, especially in the context of increasing global uncertainties [8].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 261,398.81 million and 287,538.69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 87,132.94 million to 113,272.82 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year increase of 50%-65% [1][3] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 291,153.71 million and 317,293.60 million yuan, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous year [3] - The company attributes the substantial growth in performance to seizing favorable product price increases, optimizing production and operations, and further reducing costs and increasing efficiency [3] Group 2 - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 259,439.38 million yuan, with earnings per share of 0.36 yuan [3] - The performance forecast data has not been audited by an accounting firm, but the company states that there are no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of the forecast [2]

重要内容提示： 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 证券代码：600489 证券简称：中金黄金 公告编号：2025-026 中金黄金股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 （三）本次业绩预告的数据未经注册会计师审计。 二、上年同期业绩情况 业绩预告的具体适用情形：实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比上升 50% 以上。 中金黄金股份有限公司（以下简称公司）预计 2025 年半年度实现归属 于母公司所有者的净利润 261,398.81 万元到 287,538.69 万元，与上年 同期相比，将增加 87,132.94万元到113,272.82 万元，同比增加 50%-65%。 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净 利润 291,153.71 万元到 317,293.60 万元，与上年同期相比，将增加 124,040.40 万元到 150,180.28 万元，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for the subdivided non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant growth, with a 3.10% increase over the past month and a 13.89% increase year-to-date, indicating a strong performance in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for subdivided non-ferrous metals rose by 1.28% to 6711.19 points, with a trading volume of 39.135 billion yuan [1]. - The index has increased by 13.83% over the past three months [1]. - The index is composed of seven sub-indices, reflecting the overall performance of larger, more liquid listed companies in related industries [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (15.24%), Northern Rare Earth (5.39%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.48%) [1]. - The index's holdings are primarily concentrated in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (64.67%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (35.33%) [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The index's sample holdings are predominantly in the raw materials sector (99.39%), with a small representation in the industrial sector (0.61%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the subdivided non-ferrous metal index include several products from Huaxia and Huitianfu, indicating investor interest in this sector [2].

晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.09） 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 行业研究 中央财经委会议释放"反内卷"新信号——金属行业 7 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 城投债方面，稳增长和防系统性风险的背景下，城投违约的可能性很低，城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置 品种。城投债大势将由化债与发展的合力决定，短期信用风险无虞，现阶段城投债策略依然可以积极。; 2、风险提示 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（6 月 30 日至 7 月 6 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-14 BP ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongjin Gold has experienced a decline for five consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of -2.08% [1] Company Overview - Zhongjin Gold Co., Ltd. was established on June 23, 2000, initiated by China National Gold Group Corporation along with six other enterprises [1] - The company is a significant player in the gold industry in China [1] Financial Performance - The financial report indicates that Huatai-PineBridge Fund's Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is among the top ten shareholders of Zhongjin Gold, having reduced its holdings in the first quarter of this year [1] - Year-to-date return for the fund is 2.07%, ranking 1957 out of 3426 in its category [1][2] Fund Manager Profile - The fund manager for Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is Liu Jun, who has extensive experience in fund management since joining Huatai-PineBridge in July 2004 [3][4] - Liu Jun holds a Master's degree in Financial Management from Fudan University and has held various positions within the company, including Vice President of Index Investment Department [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12]. Core Views - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cut cycle [12]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 6.3% increase over one month, 8.6% over three months, and 16.7% over twelve months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][21]. Gold Market - The average gold price in London was $3,331.90 per ounce, up 1.83% from the previous week [32]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 230,000 ounces to 30.47 million ounces [33]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,880 per ton, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 79,990 yuan per ton, a 0.11% decrease [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 131,800 tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 20,750 yuan per ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin price was 267,820 yuan per ton, down 0.88% from the previous week [43]. - LME tin inventory decreased by 65 tons to 2,110 tons [43]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot price was 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% from the previous week [43]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Xiyang Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].