2026 年 02 月 02 日 券商金股解析月报（2026 年 02 月） 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8.29 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 gaopeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090002 2 月份券商金股特征解析 2 月份紫金矿业、中际旭创、海光信息、万华化学、贵州茅台、福斯特、山东黄 金等金股推 ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a rise of 1.86% on February 2, with Jinhuijiu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - Key stocks in the liquor sector showed significant price increases, with Jinhuijiu up 10.00% to 23.98, and Huangtaijiu up 9.98% to 17.52 [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 1.464 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 448 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for major liquor stocks included Luzhou Laojiao at 33.07 billion yuan and Wuliangye at 57.54 billion yuan [2] - The stock performance of major companies included Moutai with a closing price of 1427.00, up 1.86%, and Wuliangye at 107.29, up 2.18% [1][2] Group 3 - Moutai had a main fund net inflow of 5.46 billion yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 861,700 yuan [3] - Luzhou Laojiao saw a main fund net inflow of 1.56 billion yuan, with a retail net outflow of 1.1 billion yuan [3] - Water Well Square had a main fund net inflow of 1.46 billion yuan, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 58.5 million yuan [3]

新浪财经《酒业内参》从知情人士处获悉，80后"女将"谢钦卿将出任茅台酱香酒董事长。公开信息显 示，谢钦卿1982年9月生，中共党员，大学学历。自2022年10月至2024年10月担任贵州茅台酒股份有限 公司职工董事，任中国贵州茅台酒厂（集团）有限责任公司企业管理部主任及贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 企业发展部部长。同时，其还曾任贵州茅台酱香酒营销有限公司党委副书记、董事、工会主席等职。 ...

【#i茅台APP月活跃用户突破1000万#】智通财经2月2日电，记者获悉，贵州茅台自营电商平台i茅台 APP自今年1月上线1499元/瓶飞天茅台（53度、500ml）后，活跃用户数明显增长。 目前，i茅台APP月活跃用户（MAU）已突破1000万。小财注：贵州茅台财报显示，2024年和2025年前 三季度，i茅台分别实现销售收入约200亿元、126.92亿元。（智通财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai, known as the "king of stocks," showed resilience amid a significant drop in A-shares, with its stock price rising by 1.86% to 1427.00 yuan, despite broader market challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, A-shares experienced their largest single-day drop in nearly eight months, influenced by a sharp decline in gold and silver prices [1]. - Guizhou Moutai's stock reached a peak increase of over 4% during the trading session, with a trading volume of 12.31 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Recent reports indicate a positive outlook for Guizhou Moutai, with strong demand anticipated for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to tight supply in various regions [3]. - The company is undergoing a marketing system reform aimed at preventing price speculation, with management emphasizing that product prices should align with market conditions [3]. - Structural adjustments in product offerings and a flattening of distribution channels are seen as strategic moves to enhance competitive advantages and navigate market cycles [3].

财通证券认为，批价方面，原箱普飞已由月初1500元/瓶左右上涨至1700元/瓶以上。主要原因在于：1) 飞天价格下探叠加节前需求集中释放，合力催化动销激增；2)公司削减非标配额，供给端结构调整聚焦 飞天；3)i茅台常态化投放飞天，对个人消费者购买意愿有刺激作用。核心因素在于，白酒旺季需求仍 有刚性，个人消费者所代表的真实开瓶动销逐步成为消费主力。看好本轮春节旺季白酒需求修复。 白酒板块持仓已至冰点，资金面存在做多基础 4Q2025白酒板块的公募基金持仓比例已降至5.1%，是2Q2017以来的历史低点；同时4Q2025主动基金持 仓比例更是仅2.9%。同时，近期各类宽基指数ETF资金净流出或导致白酒板块超跌，并非是基本面和预 期的有效定价。当前白酒板块在资金层面筹码结构进一步调整优化，具备做多的弹性基础。 业绩调整已进入深水区，有望逐步企稳 财通证券（601108）发布研报称，根据今日酒价，近期飞天茅台批价快速上涨至1700元以上。对于本轮 节前白酒需求，市场普遍预期较低，而近期茅台动销与批价均有超预期表现，渠道反馈临近1月末经销 商飞天出货量激增，部分已出现断货和库存见底情况。业绩端看，当前酒企普遍谨慎经营， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's liquor sector is experiencing a strong performance, with individual stocks showing a general upward trend as the traditional sales peak season approaches due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The liquor sector index (BK0477) closed at 48,951.83, with a 1.23% increase, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - Notable stocks such as Jinhuijiu and Huangtaijiu reached their daily limit, while others like Wuliangye and Moutai also saw significant gains [1][2] Group 2: Seasonal Factors - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor industry, with Moutai's price showing signs of recovery, providing strong price support for liquor stocks [1][3] - The 2026 Spring Festival is anticipated to have one additional day compared to previous years, which may enhance actual sales performance [1][3] Group 3: Macro Environment - The improvement in macroeconomic policies is seen as a positive factor for the liquor sector, with a focus on boosting domestic demand and real estate [3] - The government plans to implement a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, which could benefit the liquor industry [3] Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The allocation of public funds to the liquor sector has decreased to 3.93%, indicating a low historical level that may provide room for recovery [3] - Notable investor Duan Yongping expressed confidence in Moutai's stock price, suggesting it is undervalued from a long-term perspective [3] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Despite some companies facing earnings pressure, the valuation of the liquor sector is at historical lows, which may lead to a recovery ahead of earnings improvement [4] - Analysts believe that the liquor industry, as a barometer of the macro economy, is likely to benefit from government support for real estate and domestic demand [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline on February 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 2.69% to 13824.35 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 2.46% to 3264.11 points. The Sci-Tech Innovation Index saw a sharper decline of 3.95%, closing at 1760.23 points [1][2]. Commodity Market - The domestic commodity futures market closed with widespread declines, with over ten varieties, including silver, platinum, palladium, and copper, hitting the limit down. Notably, silver and gold fell over 15%, while zinc dropped over 6%. Other commodities like low-sulfur fuel oil and pure benzene also saw declines of over 5% [2]. Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment sector showed resilience, with stocks such as Tongguang Cable and Senyuan Electric hitting the daily limit up. The sector's performance contrasts sharply with the overall market trend [3][4]. - The liquor sector continued its upward momentum, with stocks like Huangtai Liquor and Jinhui Liquor achieving multiple consecutive gains [5]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.58 trillion yuan, a decrease of 250.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 4600 stocks declined, with 123 stocks hitting the daily limit down [5][8]. Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed net inflows into sectors such as electric grid equipment, banking, and food and beverage, while there were net outflows from semiconductor, communication, and non-ferrous metal sectors. Specific stocks like Zhongchao Holdings and Shenghong Technology saw significant net inflows [8]. Institutional Insights - Financial institutions expressed concerns about short-term market volatility, advising investors to manage positions carefully and consider buying on dips. Market confidence is still in a recovery phase following increased trading volumes in January [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market's liquor sector showed strong performance with a broad increase in individual stocks, including Jinhuijiu and Huangtaijiu reaching the daily limit, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor industry, with Moutai's price showing signs of recovery, providing strong price support for liquor stocks [1][3] - Citic Securities predicts that the liquor industry will focus on market cultivation and consumer education, which will promote sales and reduce burdens for distributors during the Spring Festival [1][3] Group 2 - The macro policy environment is improving, which is beneficial for the liquor sector, as it is a typical cyclical industry influenced by domestic demand and real estate conditions [3] - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have dropped to 3.93% by the end of 2025, indicating a low allocation that provides ample room for capital recovery in the current rebound [3] - Notable investor Duan Yongping expressed confidence in Moutai's stock price, suggesting it is undervalued from a long-term perspective and plans to increase his holdings [3] Group 3 - Despite some companies in the liquor sector facing earnings pressure, the valuation repair may precede earnings recovery, as the sector has adjusted for about five years [4] - The current market sentiment is pessimistic, but stock prices may lead the fundamentals in finding a bottom [4] - Analysts believe that the liquor industry, as a barometer of the macro economy, is likely to benefit from strong support for real estate and domestic demand, presenting long-term investment opportunities in leading companies [4]

Group 1 - The price of Feitian Moutai experienced significant fluctuations, rising by 150 yuan per bottle and then dropping by 160 yuan within a short period, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The recent price changes are attributed to speculation by scalpers, but the iMoutai platform is expected to reduce the profit margins for these scalpers over time [2][4] - As of February 2, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai stabilized around 1590 yuan per bottle, influenced by increased market demand as the Spring Festival approaches [2] Group 2 - The rapid price changes in the Moutai market are driven by market expectations rather than a few major distributors, with concerns about potential shortages due to limited annual production capacity [3] - The current market dynamics are influenced by scalpers who are closely connected to authorized distributors, allowing them to exploit information asymmetry to drive price fluctuations [4] - The management of Guizhou Moutai is actively adjusting the supply rhythm in response to market conditions, which, combined with the seasonal demand surge, contributes to the recent price increases [4]