Core Viewpoint - The rise of illegal "外挂" software for purchasing tickets and products like "i茅台" during peak consumption seasons poses significant risks to consumers and market integrity [1][2][10]. Group 1: Illegal Software Sales - Numerous sellers on second-hand platforms are offering "外挂" software claiming to enhance the success rate of purchasing "i茅台" [2][5]. - The software, such as Storm Sniffer, is marketed as capable of automating the purchase process, but sellers do not guarantee successful transactions [5][6]. - "i茅台" has issued a statement condemning the sale of such software, highlighting its negative impact on market order and potential legal violations [2][6]. Group 2: Security Risks - Experts warn that the "外挂" software does not possess genuine automated purchasing capabilities and may compromise user data security [8][12]. - Users of these software face risks of personal information leakage, financial loss, and potential legal consequences due to the use of illegal scripts [12][13]. - The software can capture sensitive data, making users vulnerable to further scams and identity theft [13]. Group 3: Legal Implications - The sale and use of "外挂" software violate multiple laws, including the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Consumer Rights Protection Law in China [6][7]. - Serious violations may lead to criminal charges, including penalties for providing tools for illegal access to computer systems [7][6]. - Legal experts suggest that users suffering financial losses from using such software can seek legal recourse through complaints or lawsuits [13].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.30% and 0.57% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 32,597 billion yuan, an increase of 2,671 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - A total of 1,803 stocks rose, with a median decline of 0.92% for the stocks [1] Market Anomalies - Three notable anomalies were observed in the market: a rise in some broad-based ETFs despite a previous decline, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices leading gains while small-cap indices adjusted, and significant gains in low-positioned sectors like liquor and real estate [2] - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 ETFs were major targets for mysterious selling by funds recently, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2] Sector Performance - The liquor sector, which had been underperforming for the past two years, experienced a sudden surge, surprising many investors [3] - The real estate sector also saw a significant rebound, influenced by the positive performance of the liquor sector and regulatory changes regarding the "three red lines" policy [10] - The semiconductor, components, and communication equipment sectors, which had previously shown strong performance, faced declines today, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards technology stocks [3][10] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector's recent surge is attributed to strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival, with reports indicating that some distributors have already sold out their quotas for premium products [6] - The China Securities Index for liquor recently hit a low near "924," and today's volume surge suggests strong support for the sector, with expectations for future price stability as long as recent lows are not breached [8] - Data from major liquor companies like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao indicate significant trading activity, with institutional investors showing mixed buying and selling patterns [9] Real Estate Sector Developments - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics, which may ease regulatory pressures and support sector recovery [7][10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a temporary shift in style, with blue-chip stocks gaining strength while technology stocks weaken, but a complete change in market style will require ongoing observation [4][12] - The current market environment is characterized by significant volatility, making it challenging for investors to navigate, particularly in sectors that have seen rapid price increases [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [48]. Core Insights - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 2.31% from January 16 to January 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.26 percentage points [10][11]. - Approximately 61% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Guyue Longshan (+17.73%) and Zhongxin Niya (+16.55%) [14]. - The industry valuation is currently at a PE (TTM) of approximately 20.94 times, which is below the five-year average of 31 times [17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 2.31% from January 16 to January 29, ranking tenth among the Shenwan first-level industries [10]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the other liquor sector seeing the highest increase of 6.85% [11]. - About 61% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with significant increases from stocks like Guyue Longshan and Zhongxin Niya [14]. Industry Data Tracking Liquor Sector - The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1580 RMB per bottle, up 60 RMB from January 15, while the price of Guojiao 1573 rose to 850 RMB per bottle [20]. Seasoning Sector - The price of soybeans was 4188.20 RMB per ton, down 2.35% month-on-month, while the price of white sugar decreased to 5320.00 RMB per ton [23]. Beer Sector - The average price of barley was 2210.00 RMB per ton, up 5.00 RMB from January 15, and aluminum ingot prices rose to 24810.00 RMB per ton, an increase of 590.00 RMB [28]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk was 3.04 RMB per kilogram, a slight increase from the previous period [34]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 18.60 RMB per kilogram, up 0.60 RMB from January 15 [36]. Industry News - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol grew by 2.7% in 2025, totaling 642.5 billion RMB [38]. - The beer import volume decreased by 9.2% in 2025, while exports increased by 14.4% [39]. - The average wholesale price index for national liquor decreased by 0.47% in mid-January [40]. - The revenue of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry fell by 4.4% in 2025 [41]. Weekly Industry Outlook - Market volatility is expected to increase in the short term, with a focus on the performance of demand during the Spring Festival [45]. - The report suggests monitoring high-end liquor stocks like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as other sectors benefiting from demographic policies [45][46].

吃喝板块今日（1月30日）回调。反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品饮料ETF华宝（515710）开盘后迅速走弱，而后持续低位震荡，截至发稿，场内价格跌 3.48%。 成份股方面，白酒等酒类个股跌幅居前。截至发稿，洋河股份、顺鑫农业、百润股份等大跌超6%，五粮液、口子窖、老白干酒、古越龙山等亦跌幅居前， 拖累板块走势。 | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 | | 周 目 | 电客 | | Ed | 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 | 画线 丁目 3 2 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 515710[食品饮料ETF华宝] 14:08 价 0.582 涨跌 | | | -0.021(-3.48%) 均价 0.586 成交量 | 932 IOPV 0.5823 | | 2026/01/30 | | | | | 0.626 | | | | | | | | | | 3.81% | SSE CNY 14:08:55 | | | 0.615 | | | | | | ...

渠道库存数据印证了调控效果。部分省区直营店已出现飞天茅台库存告急，仅能保证i茅台申购成功者的现货供应。这种"饥饿营销"与供给侧改革的组合 拳，使得25年飞天原箱批价精准锚定在1600元/瓶，24年原箱更冲至1750元高位。有经销商透露，前两月配额早已售罄，市场呈现典型的"量缩价涨"特征。 但历史数据给狂热的市场泼了盆冷水。当前价位仅与去年11月底持平，期间经历过多次回调。肖竹青预测，1600-1700元区间可能成为短期顶部，行业真正 企稳须待2026年末。这种周期性波动揭示出茅台市场的本质矛盾：厂商要维持高端形象必须控量，而经销商在资金压力下总有抛货冲动。 当成都经销商将原箱飞天茅台报价推上1700元/瓶时，这个数字背后隐藏着茅台集团精密的市场调控艺术。1月28日第三方平台数据显示，飞天茅台批价单日 最高涨幅达40元，创下年内纪录。这已是该产品自去年11月以来第三次冲击1600元价位线，形成独特的"触及-回落-反弹"市场韵律。 直营渠道与传统经销体系的博弈正在改写游戏规则。当部分直营店显示"库存不足"时，经销商报价却持续攀升，这种分化反映出茅台渠道改革的深层阵痛。 厂家通过i茅台等直销渠道收紧货源投放，既稳定 ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a significant surge on January 29, with stocks rising across the board, led by Kweichow Moutai, which closed at 1437.72 yuan, up 8.61% from the previous trading day, marking the highest single-day increase in nearly 16 months [1] - Kweichow Moutai's market capitalization returned to 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in investor confidence [1] - More than ten A-share listed liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, reached their daily price limits, while Hong Kong-listed liquor company Zhenjiu Lidu saw a single-day increase of over 12% [1] Group 2 - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase, with a bottoming process being the norm, and signs of recovery are not yet evident [3] - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday presents a significant opportunity for liquor consumption, and the industry is encouraged to leverage this key consumption period to enhance market investment and brand promotion [3]

二级市场上，白酒板块昨日强势拉升，贵州茅台大涨8%，截至发稿，今日股价回调近1.9%。 24年飞天茅台原箱较前一日持平，报1750元/瓶；24年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨45元，报1660元/瓶。 《21辟谣》注意到，在53度500ml飞天茅台酒市场批价不断上涨、行情持续火热的背景下，催生出了i茅台APP"代抢辅助软件"售卖业务。对此，1月29 日，贵州茅台（600519）在官方公众号"小茅i茅台"上发文称，以上售卖、使用该类软件的行为，对公平的市场秩序造成了不良社会影响，请广大消费者 注意提升防范意识，切勿轻信以免造成损失。贵州茅台还表示，i茅台2026年1月1日至今，已成功拦截各类异常行为4.26亿次。平台商品交易过程不存在 单一用户批量非常规消费行为成交，不存在多用户集中批量非常规消费行为成交。(详情) 贵州茅台(600519) 交易中 01-30 13:34:46 通 融 额 106亿 股本 12.5亿 市盈™19.62 1410.85 万得 盘口 换 0.60% 市值1.8万亿 市净" 7.78 -26.87 -1.87% 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 叠加 设均线 MA 5:1371.45↑ ...

《21辟谣》注意到，在53度500ml飞天茅台酒市场批价不断上涨、行情持续火热的背景下，催 生出了i茅台APP"代抢辅助软件"售卖业务。对此，1月29日，贵州茅台在官方公众号"小茅i茅 台"上发文称，以上售卖、使用该类软件的行为，对公平的市场秩序造成了不良社会影响，请 广大消费者注意提升防范意识，切勿轻信以免造成损失。贵州茅台还表示，i茅台2026年1月1 日至今，已成功拦截各类异常行为4.26亿次。平台商品交易过程不存在单一用户批量非常规消 费行为成交，不存在多用户集中批量非常规消费行为成交。（ 详情 ） 记者丨王泽坤 刘雪莹 见习记者林健民 编辑丨叶映橙 "今日酒价"披露的批发参考价显示，1月30日，26年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨100元，报 1710元/瓶。 | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 26年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1610 | 1710 t | | 2 26年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1570 | 1650 t | | 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1620 | 1730 ...

国泰海通则从宏观视角分析称："白酒是典型的顺周期行业，市场对其的定价除了考虑自身基本面以 外，还离不开两个重要的外部因素，一是内需，二是地产运行情况。" （来源：今日酒价1月30日披露数据） 1月30日今日酒价最新披露数据，飞天茅台批价继续上行：26年飞天（原装）最新价格为1710元/瓶，较 上一日上涨100元。当日贵州茅台股价小幅盘整，此前单日大涨超8%，一举收复了1月以后所有跌幅。 此前华创证券董广阳、欧阳予团队在报告中指出："2026年白酒周期将加速筑底，持续观察两大指标： 一是渠道及酒企现金流，重点把握经销商亏损缩小时点；二是核心单品酒价，重点等待飞天茅台批价企 稳放量时点。" 接下来贵州茅台及头部白酒股价能否企稳，取决于哪些因素？ ...

2026.01. 30 本文字数：1074，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 栾立 记者近两日联系到部分视频发布者，他们告诉记者，从2025年12月底开始该售酒点就在打包销售飞 天茅台，但之前市场价格低，利润空间不大，所以排队的人不多。随着近期茅台价格回升后，来排队 购酒人的数量大幅增长。但也有视频发布者称，由于近日场面过于火爆，这一购酒活动已经暂停。 王伟表示，近期茅台市场价格大涨出乎其预料，一方面可能年底市场货源本来就偏紧；另一方面，距 离酒商放假还有10到11天，一些礼赠需求也在此时集中释放有关。但短期涨幅如此惊人，不排除未 来酒价还会有所调整。 白酒独立评论员肖竹青告诉第一财经记者，茅台价格跳涨的背后是市场预期影响。茅台新管理层推动 改革后，减少了"分销"压力，也减少了非标产品投放，因为茅台酒是配额制，茅台授权代理商惜售。 而茅台酒市场生态体系中，"黄牛"是最敏感的群体，追涨杀跌。同时，茅台价格回归降低了喝茅台酒 的门槛，而新进入的中小企业家和个体户茅台酒爱好者同样对价格敏感，此次遭遇"黄牛"散布茅台酒 涨价预期信息，因此前者纷纷出手抢购茅台酒，导致了茅台价格单日暴涨。 微信编辑 | 夏木 第 ...