Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has experienced a significant increase as the Spring Festival approaches, driven by multiple factors including seasonal demand and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - On January 30, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rose by 100 yuan to 1710 yuan per bottle, with some regions seeing a two-day cumulative increase of over 150 yuan [1]. - The Tianjin market saw prices surge from around 1600 yuan to 1750 yuan per bottle, while the Henan Bai Rong wholesale market experienced a daily increase of approximately 90 yuan [1]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The primary driver of the price increase is the concentrated release of demand due to the Spring Festival, with significant increases in purchases for business gifts and family gatherings [3]. - Consumers are preemptively stocking up to avoid potential logistics disruptions, as some logistics companies have announced operational halts before the festival [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Moutai's proactive measures to control supply and stabilize prices have further supported the price increase, including halting shipments and reducing allocations of non-standard products by up to 50% [3]. - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by some distributors hoarding stock in anticipation of higher prices, leading to reduced market availability [4]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Distributors report increased sales volumes, but some remain cautious about the rapid price increases and the need to manage existing inventory levels [4][5]. - Consumers show strong intent to purchase, but some are opting to wait or consider alternative high-end liquor options due to rising prices [5]. Group 5: Expert Opinions - Analysts are divided on the implications of the price increase, with some viewing it as a positive signal for the industry, while others caution that it may not reflect a full recovery in consumer demand [5]. - Key variables affecting future price trends include logistics disruptions before the festival and the pace of demand recovery post-festival [5].

最近的行情，简直就是一个大乱斗场，轮动地让人目瞪口呆。 而对绝大多数白酒，此前的业绩预告已经给市场展示过了，接下来的25年年报和一季报都会是雷，雷完之后也不是说马上就可以起来（如果雷完马上可以 起来，那就是利空出尽），从基本面筑底走到基本面回升，是要好几个季度的，今年是大概率看不到。 从昨天白酒的资金面看，五粮液和泸州老窖破天荒的居然上了龙虎榜。这个龙虎榜透露的信息有： 典型比如说昨天，早盘还是延续前天的行情，贵金属为代表的上游资源强，然后市场去拉了AI应用，传媒板块暴涨，再之后拉了地产，最后大赢家原来 是白酒，板块除茅台外，都涨停了，酒ETF涨停。 结果今天市场就一度大幅调整，以致有人说：以后必须要严肃对待白酒上涨了，一涨就把其他的全卖了。 那么，春季躁动到白酒，到底意味着什么？是老登们的春天要来了吗？还是市场的最后一轮补涨？ 01 纯轮动，无关基本面 首先，要明确指出，白酒昨天的集体涨停，纯轮动，大家不用想一丁点的是不是白酒基本面反转了。 茅台的批价确实是在上涨，但是，第一，这只关乎茅台，我们以前就跟大家说过，白酒里面，大家看估值看股息率，只有茅台的有意义，其他白酒都没意 义，因为业绩不可持续。 第二，马 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 昨日（1月29日）A股市场上演了一场惊心动魄的风格大逆转，以白酒板块为代表的传统核心资产——被市场戏称为"老登资产"——发起全面反扑，彻底打 破了此前科技成长独领风骚的格局。中证白酒指数更是一柱擎天，单日暴涨9.79%，创下近年来罕见的板块级行情。 盘面显示，白酒板块内部呈现极致的普涨态势：除贵州茅台因市值庞大、流动性充裕而涨幅相对克制外，五粮液、泸州老窖、山西汾酒、洋河股份等头部酒 企全线涨停，古井贡酒、今世缘、舍得酒业等二三线白酒同样集体封板，板块内涨停家数超过15只，成交额突破千亿元大关，资金抢筹迹象极为明显。 白酒板块上演"单日暴涨"行情 数据来源：Wind 截至：2026.01.30 而从业绩端看，1月29日晚，天佑德公告了2025年度业绩预告：2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润421.35万元至632.02万元，比上年同期下降85%～ 90%。这是白酒企业第四家公告的2025年度业绩预减预告。目前，上市白酒企业中已四家公告2025年年度业绩预减预告，两家公告2025年年度业绩预亏预 告。 白酒行业却难觅利好 白酒企业2025年度业绩预告 ...

1月29日午后，白酒股大涨。截至收盘，贵州茅台涨8.61%，报1437.72元/股，盘间曾摸高至1445元/股， 涨幅超9%接近涨停，创下近一年来其股价最大的单日涨幅，总市值为1.8万亿元，当天成交额超263亿 元。白酒指数涨超4%，个股全线飘红。 消息面上，据智通财经报道，受春节旺季需求向好等因素影响，53vol 500ml飞天茅台批价迎来2026年 以来的最强劲上涨。29日，飞天茅台批价已攀升至接近1600元/瓶，单日涨幅达30元。 与此同时，近期茅台酒市场也呈现热销景象。在茅台官方直销平台"i茅台"上，飞天茅台已连续20多天 售罄。为缓解订单激增带来的发货压力，近日i茅台宣布在原有贵阳发货仓的基础上，新增南京、北京 两大发货仓，以提升配送效率。 来源：综合 国泰海通研报指出，白酒企业开门红回款发货正在进行中，预计动销高峰将于2月到来。批价方面，茅 台市场化转型如火如荼，i茅台销售火热，同时线下渠道普飞批价小幅回升，催生了茅台需求增量，关 注后续2月及节后价格表现。 展望后市，中信证券研报认为，白酒行业或在新改革和新方向下重新聚焦市场培育和消费者教育，促进 开瓶动销并为经销商减负。综合考虑到动销已逐步平稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector experienced a significant collective surge on January 29, 2026, with 18 out of 20 stocks reaching their daily limit, resulting in a total market value increase of over 252.6 billion yuan, primarily driven by the performance of Kweichow Moutai, which alone saw a market value increase of over 140 billion yuan [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, the white liquor stocks initially opened flat but later exhibited a strong upward trend, with all 20 stocks showing a "climbing" pattern throughout the day [3][6]. - Kweichow Moutai and Shunxin Agriculture, while not hitting the limit, recorded significant gains of 8.61% and 9.96%, respectively, with Moutai's stock closing at 1437.72 yuan per share [5][6]. - The surge in the white liquor sector was unexpected for investors, who expressed surprise at the sudden rise after a prolonged period of low performance [6][10]. Group 2: Industry Turning Point - The collective rise in white liquor stocks has led to speculation about a potential turning point for the industry, attributed to factors such as the price increase of Moutai and the upcoming Spring Festival consumption peak [7][10]. - The price of Moutai's original box has risen to 1610 yuan per bottle, indicating a recovery from previous lows [7][9]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities have optimistic expectations for the Spring Festival sales, predicting stable sales performance due to various favorable factors [7][10]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery Logic - The current valuation of white liquor stocks is at a low point, with the China Securities White Liquor Index reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.85, close to historical lows [10][11]. - The market's expectation for a rebound is growing, especially as leading white liquor companies have adjusted their profit forecasts for 2025-2026, enhancing the perceived safety margin for investors [10][11]. - Structural changes within the industry, such as inventory clearance and price control mechanisms, are crucial for sustaining the recovery of white liquor stocks [11][12][16]. Group 4: Structural Changes - The pressure on leading liquor companies regarding inventory has eased, with companies like Wuliangye managing to reduce channel inventory to 1-2 months [11][12]. - Price control reforms are being implemented, with Moutai and Wuliangye adopting strategies to stabilize prices and support distributors [12][16]. - The effectiveness of these structural reforms will be essential for validating the recovery of demand in the white liquor sector [11][17].

Core Viewpoint - The market price of Feitian Moutai has risen for three consecutive days, with the original box price exceeding 1700 yuan per bottle, marking the highest single-day increase of the year at approximately 100 yuan per bottle [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The demand for Moutai has exceeded expectations, with some distributors describing the current purchasing power as "massive" [2]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, many distributors have already fulfilled their quotas for January and February, potentially leading to a situation where demand surpasses supply, driving prices upward [2][7]. - The recent price surge is attributed not only to seasonal demand but also to the introduction of the "i Moutai" platform, which has expanded the consumer base beyond traditional channels [2][6]. Price Trends - The market price for original box Feitian Moutai is currently between 1710 yuan and 1770 yuan per bottle, with single bottle prices ranging from 1650 yuan to 1700 yuan, reflecting daily increases of 100 to 160 yuan for boxes and 80 to 130 yuan for single bottles [6]. - The price fluctuations have been significant, with reports of multiple price increases within a single day as demand spikes ahead of the holiday [2][3]. Consumer Behavior - The "i Moutai" platform has attracted a large number of new consumers, many of whom are not traditional channel customers, indicating a shift in the consumer demographic [6]. - There is a concern that the current surge in demand may be driven by short-term holiday gifting needs, and the long-term purchasing behavior of new consumers remains uncertain [8][9]. Future Outlook - Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with many believing that the current price levels may stabilize post-Spring Festival, contingent on supply management by Moutai [7][8]. - Some distributors express concerns about the sustainability of the price increases, noting a decline in group purchase customers and a potential drop in demand after the holiday season [9].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of illegal "外挂" software for purchasing tickets and products like "i茅台" during peak consumption seasons poses significant risks to consumers and market integrity [1][2][10]. Group 1: Illegal Software Sales - Numerous sellers on second-hand platforms are offering "外挂" software claiming to enhance the success rate of purchasing "i茅台" [2][5]. - The software, such as Storm Sniffer, is marketed as capable of automating the purchase process, but sellers do not guarantee successful transactions [5][6]. - "i茅台" has issued a statement condemning the sale of such software, highlighting its negative impact on market order and potential legal violations [2][6]. Group 2: Security Risks - Experts warn that the "外挂" software does not possess genuine automated purchasing capabilities and may compromise user data security [8][12]. - Users of these software face risks of personal information leakage, financial loss, and potential legal consequences due to the use of illegal scripts [12][13]. - The software can capture sensitive data, making users vulnerable to further scams and identity theft [13]. Group 3: Legal Implications - The sale and use of "外挂" software violate multiple laws, including the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Consumer Rights Protection Law in China [6][7]. - Serious violations may lead to criminal charges, including penalties for providing tools for illegal access to computer systems [7][6]. - Legal experts suggest that users suffering financial losses from using such software can seek legal recourse through complaints or lawsuits [13].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.30% and 0.57% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 32,597 billion yuan, an increase of 2,671 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - A total of 1,803 stocks rose, with a median decline of 0.92% for the stocks [1] Market Anomalies - Three notable anomalies were observed in the market: a rise in some broad-based ETFs despite a previous decline, the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices leading gains while small-cap indices adjusted, and significant gains in low-positioned sectors like liquor and real estate [2] - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 ETFs were major targets for mysterious selling by funds recently, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2] Sector Performance - The liquor sector, which had been underperforming for the past two years, experienced a sudden surge, surprising many investors [3] - The real estate sector also saw a significant rebound, influenced by the positive performance of the liquor sector and regulatory changes regarding the "three red lines" policy [10] - The semiconductor, components, and communication equipment sectors, which had previously shown strong performance, faced declines today, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards technology stocks [3][10] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector's recent surge is attributed to strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival, with reports indicating that some distributors have already sold out their quotas for premium products [6] - The China Securities Index for liquor recently hit a low near "924," and today's volume surge suggests strong support for the sector, with expectations for future price stability as long as recent lows are not breached [8] - Data from major liquor companies like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao indicate significant trading activity, with institutional investors showing mixed buying and selling patterns [9] Real Estate Sector Developments - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics, which may ease regulatory pressures and support sector recovery [7][10] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market is experiencing a temporary shift in style, with blue-chip stocks gaining strength while technology stocks weaken, but a complete change in market style will require ongoing observation [4][12] - The current market environment is characterized by significant volatility, making it challenging for investors to navigate, particularly in sectors that have seen rapid price increases [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [48]. Core Insights - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 2.31% from January 16 to January 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 2.26 percentage points [10][11]. - Approximately 61% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Guyue Longshan (+17.73%) and Zhongxin Niya (+16.55%) [14]. - The industry valuation is currently at a PE (TTM) of approximately 20.94 times, which is below the five-year average of 31 times [17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 2.31% from January 16 to January 29, ranking tenth among the Shenwan first-level industries [10]. - Most sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the other liquor sector seeing the highest increase of 6.85% [11]. - About 61% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with significant increases from stocks like Guyue Longshan and Zhongxin Niya [14]. Industry Data Tracking Liquor Sector - The price of Feitian Moutai increased to 1580 RMB per bottle, up 60 RMB from January 15, while the price of Guojiao 1573 rose to 850 RMB per bottle [20]. Seasoning Sector - The price of soybeans was 4188.20 RMB per ton, down 2.35% month-on-month, while the price of white sugar decreased to 5320.00 RMB per ton [23]. Beer Sector - The average price of barley was 2210.00 RMB per ton, up 5.00 RMB from January 15, and aluminum ingot prices rose to 24810.00 RMB per ton, an increase of 590.00 RMB [28]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk was 3.04 RMB per kilogram, a slight increase from the previous period [34]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 18.60 RMB per kilogram, up 0.60 RMB from January 15 [36]. Industry News - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol grew by 2.7% in 2025, totaling 642.5 billion RMB [38]. - The beer import volume decreased by 9.2% in 2025, while exports increased by 14.4% [39]. - The average wholesale price index for national liquor decreased by 0.47% in mid-January [40]. - The revenue of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry fell by 4.4% in 2025 [41]. Weekly Industry Outlook - Market volatility is expected to increase in the short term, with a focus on the performance of demand during the Spring Festival [45]. - The report suggests monitoring high-end liquor stocks like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as other sectors benefiting from demographic policies [45][46].

吃喝板块今日（1月30日）回调。反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品饮料ETF华宝（515710）开盘后迅速走弱，而后持续低位震荡，截至发稿，场内价格跌 3.48%。 成份股方面，白酒等酒类个股跌幅居前。截至发稿，洋河股份、顺鑫农业、百润股份等大跌超6%，五粮液、口子窖、老白干酒、古越龙山等亦跌幅居前， 拖累板块走势。 | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 | | 周 目 | 电客 | | Ed | 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 | 画线 丁目 3 2 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 515710[食品饮料ETF华宝] 14:08 价 0.582 涨跌 | | | -0.021(-3.48%) 均价 0.586 成交量 | 932 IOPV 0.5823 | | 2026/01/30 | | | | | 0.626 | | | | | | | | | | 3.81% | SSE CNY 14:08:55 | | | 0.615 | | | | | | ...