行业名称 行业研究 | 行业周报 "涨"声雷动，力争"上游" 食品饮料行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议： 我们认为，优先选择靠近产业链上游的 B 端供应商标的： 1）糖、番茄酱、果汁供应商，相关标的中粮糖业(600737，未评级)、冠农股 份 (600251，未评级)、安德利(605198，未评级)； 2）添加剂及食品原料供应商，推荐安琪酵母(600298，买入)，相关标的梅花生物 (600873，未评级)、爱普股份(603020，未评级)、晨光生物(300138，未评级)、保龄宝 (002286，未评级)、百龙创园(605016，未评级)、三元生物(301206，未评级)； 3） 豆 类 制 品 相 关 标 的 金 龙 鱼(300999， 未 评 级)、 祖 名 股 份(003030， 未 评 级)； 另外，看好具备品牌力及功能化标签标的的提价能力： 4）白酒、保健品，推荐贵州茅台(600519，买入)、山西汾酒(600809，买入)，相关标的 民生健康(301507，未评级)； 风险提示 | 证券 | 公司 | 股价 | | EPS | | | PE | | 投资 | | --- | -- ...

记者在部分社交平台上看到，由于近日茅台价格持续回升，贵阳有茅台售酒点重新排起了长龙。社交平台视频显示，该售酒点位于贵阳顺丰丰泰产业园。多 个视频显示，排队者通宵排队购买，一人可以1499元/瓶购买20箱飞天茅台，但还需要搭售一箱3299元的精品茅台，折算下来飞天茅台的成本约为1549元/ 瓶。 记者近两日联系到部分视频发布者，他们告诉记者，从2025年12月底开始该售酒点就在打包销售飞天茅台，但之前市场价格低，利润空间不大，所以排队的 人不多。随着近期茅台价格回升后，来排队购酒人的数量大幅增长。但也有视频发布者称，由于近日场面过于火爆，这一购酒活动已经暂停。 飞天茅台价格暴涨或来因礼赠需求增加和黄牛炒作。 节前茅台迎来了一波价格暴涨。第三方价格平台显示，1月30日飞天茅台批发价单日涨幅超过百元/瓶，记者了解到，部分地区价格单瓶两日跳涨超过150元/ 瓶，这让受访酒商也感到吃惊。业内猜测，茅台价格暴涨或与节前礼赠需求增加和黄牛炒作有关。 多位酒商告诉第一财经记者，29日开始，飞天茅台的价格涨幅就不太正常，早上还是1600元/瓶，中午就涨了40元/瓶，而到晚上报价已经到了1660元/瓶，今 天早上已经突破了170 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases of Moutai products are driven by a combination of seasonal demand and the company's market-oriented reforms, which include a shift from a fixed pricing system to a dynamic pricing mechanism [5][11]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 2026 Moutai original boxes has reached 1590 yuan per bottle, an increase of 35 yuan from the previous day, while the 2025 Moutai original boxes are priced at 1600 yuan, also up by 35 yuan [3]. - The price of non-standard products, such as the Year of the Horse Moutai classic version, has seen significant increases, with a daily rise of 120 yuan, totaling a 400 yuan increase over three days [3]. - The retail price of Moutai at the terminal has stabilized around 1700 yuan per bottle, with the demand for gifts during the Spring Festival being a key factor in this price increase [13]. Group 2: Market Reforms - Moutai is implementing a market-oriented reform that alters its pricing strategy, moving away from the fixed guidance price of 1499 yuan established in 2017 to a flexible pricing model based on market supply and demand [5]. - The company is transitioning its operational model from traditional self-sale and distribution to a multi-dimensional collaboration involving self-sale, distribution, consignment, and agency sales [7]. - Moutai's new model changes the role of distributors, who will now earn fixed commissions rather than holding product ownership, thus altering their profit structure [7]. Group 3: Product Structure and Distribution - Moutai is adjusting its product structure to return to a "pyramid" product system, focusing on the flagship Moutai, with additional offerings like kilogram Moutai and 100ml small Moutai [9]. - The iMoutai platform has increased its product offerings ahead of the Spring Festival, allowing for a daily purchase limit of six bottles of Moutai per person [9]. - The company has expanded its distribution capabilities by adding new shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing to address logistics challenges and improve delivery times [14].

"今日酒价"披露的批发参考价显示，1月30日，26年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨100元，报1710元/瓶；26年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨 80元，报1650元/瓶。25年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨110元，报1730元/瓶；25年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨70元，报1650元/瓶。24 年飞天茅台原箱较前一日持平，报1750元/瓶；24年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨45元，报1660元/瓶。 | 茅台飞天 | | | 2026年1月30日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 26年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1610 | 1710 ↑ | | ② 26年で天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1570 | 1650 ↑ | | 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1620 | 1730 ↑ | | 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1580 | 1650 ↑ | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1750 | 1750 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml ...

此外，26年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨80元，报1650元/瓶。25年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨70元，报1650元/瓶。24年飞天茅台原箱较前一日持平，报 1750元/瓶。24年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨45元，报1660元/瓶。 1月30日，"今日酒价"披露的批发参考价显示，26年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨100元，报1710元/瓶。 25年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨110元，报1730元/瓶。 | 茅台飞天 | | | 2026年1月30日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 26年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1610 | 1710 t | | 2 26年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1570 | 1650 1 | | 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1620 | 1730 t | | 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1580 | 1650 t | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1750 | 1750 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/5 ...

公务接待场景的坍塌首当其冲。2012年，中央八项规定实施后，白酒在政务消费中的占比断崖式下跌。 欧睿信息咨询公司的数据显示，2013年白酒政务消费额骤降35%，至2023年该场景已近乎消失。 近年来，中国白酒行业正在经历前所未有的转折。据中国酒业协会发布的《2023年中国白酒产业发展年 度报告》，2023年是白酒产业新周期的转折与分化之年，在这一年行业销售收入同比下滑3.5%，终结 了连续10年的增长态势。至2022年年底，全国规模以上白酒企业数量从1593家减少至963家，降幅近 40%。 最新的《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》进一步显示，白酒行业近60%的企业利润率下降，超过40% 的经销商面临现金流压力，全行业呈现量价齐跌的态势，平均存货周转天数增至900天。可见，这一颓 势并非短期波动，而是消费场景与人群双重收缩的必然结果。 白酒营销新方向：从传统到审美。 市场变局：白酒消费场景的萎缩与结构性转型挑战 其涟漪效应更波及商务领域。企业调研表明，75%的商务宴请中白酒使用率较2015年下降超50%。与此 同时，年轻消费群体正加速转向新式饮品。这一趋势早在5年前就已初现端倪。 第一财经商业数据中心(CB ...

Group 1: Technology Sector Developments - Alibaba's "Tongyun Ge" concept integrates "Cloud + AI + Chips" as a strategic support triangle for future technology initiatives, emphasizing AI as a core driver of change in cloud computing over the next decade [2] - ByteDance's CEO Liang Rubo announced the company's 2026 focus on "climbing to new heights," highlighting the importance of AI opportunities and the need to enhance talent density and incentives [5] - Waymo plans to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing services in London by Q4 2023, expanding its operations internationally despite regulatory challenges [7] Group 2: Market and Company News - Guizhou Moutai denied rumors of participating in SpaceX's Series A funding, with its stock closing at 1437.72 yuan per share, up 8.61%, and a market capitalization exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [3] - Byte's new "Doubao" smartphone is expected to be released in late Q2 2026, with significant improvements over its predecessor, developed in collaboration with ZTE Nubia [4] - Meituan's new "one-shot" verification feature requires new restaurant partners to upload unedited videos showcasing their premises, aimed at enhancing platform integrity [8] Group 3: Industry Collaborations - Black Sesame Intelligence and Baidu's "萝卜快跑" signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop a collaborative ecosystem for autonomous driving, focusing on technology research and product development [11] - Shanghai Xixi Intelligent Technology completed several million yuan in angel financing, aimed at integrating AI with flexible robotics for food processing solutions [12] Group 4: Consumer Electronics - Apple's iPhone 16 was the best-selling smartphone globally in 2025, with Apple and Samsung dominating the top ten list, holding seven and three positions respectively, indicating strong market leadership [10]

1月30日，"今日酒价"披露的批发参考价显示，26年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨100元，报1710元/瓶。 编辑丨瑜见 | 茅台飞天 | | | 2026年1月30日 (公众号: 今日酒价) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | 2 26年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1610 | 1710 t | | 团 26年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1570 | 1650 1 | | 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1620 | 1730 t | | 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1580 | 1650 t | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1750 | 1750 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1615 | 1660 1 | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1820 | 1820 | | 23年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1720 | 1740 t | | 公斤茅台(原) | 53度/1L | 3020 | 3030 t ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Chinese Liquor Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Chinese liquor sector**, particularly the performance of **Kweichow Moutai Company Ltd.** and its market dynamics [1][7]. Key Insights - The liquor sector experienced a **share price rally of approximately 10%** on January 29, 2026, compared to a flat performance for the SSE, driven by sentiment related to the property sector and a rebound in wholesale prices due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) peak season [1]. - The rally is viewed as **tactical**, with short-term support from fund flows and sentiment improvement, while fundamental demand is expected to take time to recover [1]. - **Moutai** is highlighted as the most solid investment opportunity within the sector [1]. Demand Insights - Recent channel checks indicate that overall demand for CNY is likely experiencing a **year-over-year decline** [10]. - Moutai's pre-CNY sales showed **positive growth**, with distributor prepayments at **33%**, up from **26-27%** the previous year [10]. - Other brands are facing **double-digit declines** in sales, with prepayment pace lower than last year [10]. Pricing Trends - Moutai's wholesale prices are currently between **RMB 780-800 per bottle**, which is better than expected [10]. - The impact of the "unboxing sales" policy and the termination of wholesale pricing in 2021 has raised concerns about future pricing trends [3]. Institutional Ownership - Institutional ownership as a percentage of free float has shown an increasing trend, reaching **58%** by December 2025, indicating growing confidence among institutional investors [5]. Risks and Valuation - The valuation methodology for Moutai is based on a **discounted cash flow** approach, with key assumptions including an **11% WACC** and a **2% long-term growth rate** [11]. - Upside risks include a quicker recovery in high-end liquor consumption and a faster rebound in Moutai's wholesale prices [13]. - Downside risks involve lower-than-expected volume growth for high-end spirits and continued declines in wholesale and retail prices of Moutai [13]. Conclusion - The Chinese liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is currently experiencing a sentiment-driven rally, but fundamental demand recovery is still pending. Investors should be cautious of the potential risks while considering the growing institutional interest in the sector [1][10][11].

白酒大涨，后市如何演绎 20260129 摘要 较大影响。 如何看待白酒行业估值？ 白酒行业估值需考虑其周期性及市场反应。目前头部企业在 2026 年的指引显 示希望实现增长或尽量减少下滑。这可能导致白酒价格低于预期，并延长出清 周期。然而茅台表现出强大的价格弹性，其批价跌破 1,600 元后动销加速，这 说明其价格已触及居民可支配收入能支撑的位置。此外，"爱茅台"现象显示 线上低价茅台销售带动线下销售提升，对公司量的增长有巨大帮助，实现了渗 透率快速提升。因此，在春节前后批价压力可能会小于预期。 如何把握未来白酒投资节奏？ 居民财富受限显著影响中高端白酒消费，房地产市场企稳或上涨对白酒 行业构成利好，因行业增长主要依赖价格而非销量。 白酒周期自 2021 年初下跌，为历史最长，跌幅近 60%。2025 年三季 度报表负增长 18%，动销大幅下降，但降幅趋缓，报表端出清是关键。 头部白酒企业 2026 年指引显示增长或减少下滑，或致价格低于预期， 延长出清周期。茅台批价跌破 1,600 元后动销加速，线上低价带动线下 销售，春节前后批价压力或小于预期。 白酒投资需关注报表端出清和批价见底。批价阴跌对股价影响减 ...