如何看待当前白酒板块？20260129 摘要 近期白酒行业出现了大幅上涨的现象，背后的原因是什么？ 白酒行业近期的大幅上涨主要有以下几个原因。首先，前期白酒板块跌幅较大， 筹码相对干净。其次，从基本面来看，茅台的批发价格逐步企稳，目前已超过 1,600 元，并且渠道反馈显示春节期间茅台有望实现正增长，这比之前预期的 双位数下滑要好得多。这一变化反映了茅台通过一系列改革，包括以价换量策 略，提高了产品性价比，从而激发了消费者需求。此外，茅台在 i 茅台平台上 的投放量增加，也进一步促进了需求增长。其他白酒公司如五粮液等则没有明 显的基本面改善迹象。 对于未来白酒市场的发展趋势和投资建议是什么？ 从长期来看，我们认为茅台具有配置价值。其品牌力强，通过高性价比产品激 发需求，即使白酒行业整体量下滑，其市场份额仍能提升，实现稳健增长。目 前股息率超过 4%，企业也在持续回购股票。因此，对于追求绝对收益的资金 高端白酒如飞天茅台激发消费升级需求，高净值人群需求较好，100 元 以下及 100-300 元区间白酒未见明显上行，其他品牌处于下行趋缓阶段。 茅台品牌力强，市场化改革积极，春节价格低点已探明，后续价格不受 系统 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview 1. Baijiu Industry - The baijiu industry is experiencing cautious expectations for sales during the Spring Festival, with a decrease in the willingness of distributors to collect payments. However, Moutai shows strong demand resilience, with its price rebounding. The misalignment of the Spring Festival holiday is expected to benefit Q1 2026, and policies to stimulate domestic demand may be implemented, leading to increased dividend yields for leading companies and maintaining strong profitability [1][3][5]. 2. Paper Industry - The profitability in the paper industry is shifting towards upstream sectors due to high pulp prices and weak downstream consumption, resulting in narrowed profits for midstream operations. It is anticipated that wood chip and pulp prices will continue to rise in Q1, driving up paper prices. Companies with their own pulp production capacity are expected to see sustained profitability [1][7][8]. 3. Forestry Carbon Sink - China is actively promoting forestry carbon sinks as part of its national climate strategy. Companies capable of developing forestry carbon sinks and possessing forestry resources are worth attention, as the cost-effectiveness of forestry carbon sinks is the highest [1][9]. 4. New Consumption Sector - Leading companies in the new consumption sector, such as Laopu Gold, are currently undervalued with strong performance expectations. The rise in gold prices and discount promotions are driving sales growth. Laopu Gold significantly raised prices in the second half of last year, and substantial growth is expected this year [1][10][11]. 5. Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with expectations for a reversal post-Spring Festival. The implementation of trade-in subsidies is expected to improve retail performance. TCL Electronics is integrating Sony's TV business, opening up profitability potential, and is currently undervalued [1][17][19]. Company-Specific Insights 1. Moutai and Other Baijiu Brands - Moutai is recommended as a key investment due to its undeniable competitiveness. Other notable brands include Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have significant advantages in competitiveness and operational capabilities, with opportunities to increase market share [1][6]. 2. Paper Companies - Recommended paper companies include Nine Dragons Paper, Sun Paper, and Yueyang Forest Paper, which are expected to see continuous profit improvements due to their upstream integration [1][7][8]. 3. New Consumption Leaders - Key investment opportunities in the new consumption sector include Laopu Gold, which is expected to achieve a performance of 7 to 8 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to a P/E ratio of about 16 times, reflecting a 50% growth compared to 2025 [1][11][12]. 4. Gold and Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry sector is entering a bull market, with companies like Taibai Gang showing significant profit growth and low P/E ratios, indicating substantial potential. The sector is expected to benefit from promotional activities during Valentine's Day and the Spring Festival [1][13]. 5. Livestock and Meat Industry - The livestock sector, particularly beef and pork, is facing supply pressures, with pig prices in a downward cycle. However, the beef market is expected to see price support due to tight supply conditions [1][20][21][23][22]. 6. Pharmaceutical Manufacturing - The CRO, raw materials, and intermediates sectors in pharmaceutical manufacturing are poised for growth in 2026, driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics. Companies like WuXi AppTec and Junshi Biosciences are highlighted as key players in this space [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the market indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for various sectors, with specific companies showing strong potential for growth and profitability amidst changing market conditions [1][2][4][10][18].

白酒大涨之后怎么看 20260129 摘要 当前酒企利润虽可能下滑，但茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖等头部企业估值 在 20 倍以内，股息率具吸引力，批发价 1,500-1,600 元或已接近本轮 价格底部。 预计 2026 年茅台供给保持克制，需求端大众消费占比提升至 25%- 30%，商务需求或有反弹，供需基本匹配，小幅缺口将在价格上体现。 茅台经销商渠道回款进度良好，库存极低，"爱茅台"自营渠道贡献增 量，预计 2026 年实际消费者动销同比增长 15%-20%，价格已从 1,500 元上涨至近 1,700 元。 短期内茅台批价预计站稳 1,700 元并有上行动力。中期行业去库存，集 中度提升，茅台以价换量，下行周期见底。五粮液降价激发次高端市场 份额。 五粮液批发价约 780-790 元，通过 1,618 产品扫码红包快速替代同等 价格带区域酒。白酒行业将继续向头部品牌集中，各价格带第一名份额 提升。 茅台价格企稳销量增加，大众消费占比提升，供需平衡坚实。经济压制 因素解除后，茅台需求有望释放，价格具备更大上行弹性。 当前是布局白酒板块时机，建议配置茅台作为底仓，关注五粮液和汾酒。 二季度末或三季度市场动销和 ...

摘要 白酒大涨后怎么看？20260129 Q&A 当前茅台的业绩预期如何，估值是否存在压制？ 目前茅台的业绩预期仍然保持持平或个位数增长，因此估值在 25 倍左右确实 是一个重要的关口。当前估值压制主要源于基本面尚未出现明确的转向。回顾 前几轮白酒周期，一旦基本面出现趋势性转向，白酒作为顺周期品种，其量价 将同步提升，届时估值突破 25 倍将是顺理成章的事。然而，目前尚未看到这 种趋势。因此，如果将当前视为一轮反弹行情，茅台 25 倍估值压制仍较为明 显。 茅台需求回暖，主要受益于价格性价比提升、春节消费场景变化以及禁 酒令影响减弱，发货和回款进度加快印证需求端改善。 政策预期向好，房企"三道红线"数据上报放松改善地产预期，贵金属 和商品价格上涨提升市场对经济走出通缩的信心，成为白酒板块上涨催 化剂。 筹码结构优化，上证 50 和沪深 300 抛压减小，主动权益基金持有白酒 板块筹码较少，板块拉升易出现大幅上涨。 白酒需求复苏呈现结构性特点，茅台通过降价实现以价换量，挤压其他 品牌，次高端受禁酒令影响最大，中低端消费习惯相对固定。 春节需求不必过于悲观，禁酒令影响减弱，需求向春节集中趋势明显， 在低预期下，对 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese liquor industry**, focusing on **Moutai** and the **huangjiu (yellow wine)** sector, highlighting market dynamics and future expectations. Core Insights and Arguments - **Moutai Pricing Dynamics**: Moutai's direct sales platform launched a price of **1,499 RMB**, which has been well-received by consumers, contributing to a positive market outlook. The price is seen as a significant driver for Moutai's performance, with expectations that it will serve as a price floor for 2027 [1][7]. - **Sales Performance**: During the Spring Festival, Moutai's sales are expected to increase, although a post-holiday demand drop is anticipated but deemed manageable due to the established price support [1][4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The market is optimistic about Moutai's pricing strategy, with many believing that the **1,499 RMB** price point will bolster confidence in the brand and the overall sector [1][7]. - **White Liquor Sector Trends**: The white liquor sector's performance is influenced by inventory levels, consumer demand, and channel dynamics. The current inventory is reported to be around **20%-30%** of the annual target, indicating a manageable situation [1][8]. - **Huangjiu Sector Growth**: The huangjiu sector is performing well, with companies like **Kuaijishan** and **Guyue Longshan** actively expanding their product lines and undergoing organizational reforms to enhance market competitiveness [1][12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Risk Factors**: The primary risks in the white liquor industry include potential policy disruptions and inventory issues. However, recent policy changes have eased concerns, and inventory levels are currently stable [1][8]. - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable increase in consumer demand for Moutai, driven by gifting needs and a favorable perception of price-to-value ratio [2][3]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The white liquor market is expected to experience a rebound similar to post-pandemic trends, with a focus on both Moutai and other strong regional brands like **Gujing Gongjiu** and **Yingjia** [1][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors are advised to focus on leading companies like Moutai and those with strong brand power and financial health for stable returns [1][5]. Company-Specific Developments - **Kuaijishan**: The company has seen significant growth in its product lines, achieving over **50%** growth in key series, and plans to enhance product quality and marketing strategies in the coming years [12][13]. - **Guyue Longshan**: The company is undergoing significant organizational changes aimed at improving operational efficiency and market adaptability, which could enhance its future performance [12][14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of the liquor industry, particularly focusing on Moutai and the huangjiu sector.

飞天批价上涨怎么看？20260129 摘要 茅台经销商普遍计划在小年前抛售库存，预计年后价格可能回落，受其 他酒类产品去库存影响，经销商倾向于在一二月份抛售全年约 30%的配 额。 2026 年 1 月中旬茅台已发出 2 月份全部货物，占全年配额 30%，发货 节奏与去年同期大致相同，但到货时间因物流线路差异可能存在 7-10 天差异。 2026 年非标品（如精品、生肖系列）配额取消或减少，飞天茅台按合 同执行，非标品需求或转移至飞天，但爱茅台平台放量导致非标品需求 下降。 经销商飞天茅台库存极低，非标品已清空。四季度曾低价（1,499 元/ 瓶）出清非标品，对价格预期悲观，但近期市场表现超预期，价格波动 大。 当前茅台市场存在惜售现象，导致阶段性供不应求，部分终端因进货成 本高而不愿出售，造成假断货现象，价格下跌至 1,499 元时刺激部分团 购客户需求。 茅台酒在近期的市场表现如何？ Q&A 非标品和飞天茅台今年（2026 年）的配额情况如何？ 今年（2026 年），非标品如精品和生肖系列并没有给经销商配额，而飞天茅 台则按之前签订的合同执行。去年（2025 年），精品和生肖系列分别有 500 多箱和 2 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - **Strong Sales Performance**: Moutai's sales velocity is robust, with prices recovering to over 1,600 RMB, exceeding market expectations. From January 1 to January 9, over 400,000 transactions occurred, with an average daily supply exceeding 50 tons, indicating strong market demand [1][2]. - **Market Bottom Indicators**: The baijiu industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with the 1,499 RMB Moutai indicating clear volume and price bottom characteristics. Historical data suggests that Moutai and Wuliangye's volume increases signal industry recovery [1][6]. - **Investment Recommendation**: Guizhou Moutai is the preferred investment target, historically outperforming in price, stock performance, and earnings when the industry enters a recovery phase. Revenue growth rates exceeded 20% in 2016 and over 50% in 2017 [1][7]. - **Valuation of Other Baijiu Companies**: Leading baijiu companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are currently undervalued, with valuations around 15 times earnings or lower. These companies also have high dividend yields, making them attractive for investment [1][10]. Yellow Wine Sector - **Market Expansion**: The yellow wine sector is expanding through price increases, new product launches, and innovative marketing strategies. Leading companies like Kuaijishan are performing well, and Guolongshan is actively pursuing high-end, youth-oriented, and national strategies [1][12]. Beer Industry Insights - **Resilience in Sales**: The beer industry is showing resilience with positive sales growth, particularly as the restaurant sector recovers, which is expected to positively impact beer consumption. Yanjing Beer has high expectations for operational improvement, with significant profit contributions from its health product line [1][4][14]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Yanjing Beer is recommended due to its improving operational metrics and expansion into health products, with projected profit growth. Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer are also noteworthy, with attractive dividend yields and low valuations [1][15]. Cost Factors - **Cost Management**: The cost of aluminum cans is under control, and there are signs of improvement in malt costs. The overall impact on ton costs is minimal, suggesting a focus on revenue recovery and price increases is essential [1][16]. Conclusion - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The baijiu industry is at a critical juncture, with Moutai leading the recovery. Other sectors like yellow wine and beer are also showing potential for growth, driven by strategic initiatives and market recovery trends. Investors are encouraged to consider both Moutai and other leading brands for their strong fundamentals and growth prospects [1][9][10].

"今日酒价"披露的批发参考价显示，1月30日，26年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨100元，报1710元/瓶。 24年飞天茅台原箱较前一日持平，报1750元/瓶；24年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨45元，报1660元/瓶。 | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 26年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1610 | 1710 t | | 2 26年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1570 | 1650 t | | 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1620 | 1730 t | | 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1580 | 1650 t | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1750 | 1750 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1615 | 1660 t | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1820 | 1820 | | 23年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1720 | 1740 t | 另外，26年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨80元，报16 ...

"今日酒价"披露的批发参考价显示，1月30日， 26年飞天茅台原箱较前一日上涨100元，报1710元/瓶。 | 品名 | 规格 | 昨日行情 | 今日行情 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 26年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1610 | 1710 t | | 2 26年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1570 | 1650 t | | 25年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1620 | 1730 t | | 25年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1580 | 1650 t | | 24年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1750 | 1750 | | 24年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1615 | 1660 t | | 23年飞天(原) | 53度/500ml | 1820 | 1820 | | 23年飞天(散) | 53度/500ml | 1720 | 1740 t | 24年飞天茅台原箱较前一日持平，报1750元/瓶；24年飞天茅台散瓶较前一日上涨45元，报1660元/瓶。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 ...

"贵州茅台参与SpaceX上市A轮融资"1月29日，这则简短的市场传言在部分投资者群体中悄然流传。消息迅速发酵，直至贵州茅台方面向《上海证券报》 等媒体明确回应：此为 "不实信息"。 文丨吕行 编辑丨杜海 来源丨新商悟 （本文约为1000字） 一张聊天截图，一段凭空捏造的对话，竟让中国白酒龙头与全球太空科技巨头产生了离奇的资本联姻。 谣言随即消散，但留下的疑问值得深思：一个在商业逻辑和技术细节上都站不住脚的消息，为何能短暂地迷惑住一部分人？ 这则传言在专业人士眼中几乎不值一驳，因为它同时踩中了多个常识性"雷区"。 首先，概念混淆。"A轮融资"特指初创企业的早期私募股权融资，而SpaceX正在筹备的是首次公开发行（IPO），属于公司在成熟阶段面向公众投资者的 上市行为。 其次，主体错位。贵州茅台作为一家业务高度聚焦、投资风格稳健的国有控股白酒企业，其对外投资历来围绕主业及上下游展开。跨界参与数万公里之 外、且处于高度敏感航天领域的美国公司IPO，既不符合其战略，也远超其常规的操作范畴。 最后，流程荒谬。如此重大且涉及跨境、跨行业的战略投资，绝无可能先由市场传言证实，而没有任何官方公告或权威信源披露。贵州茅台后续 ...