Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but manufacturing employment has dropped to its lowest level since March 2022 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, although this increase coincided with a rise in the labor participation rate [1] - Non-farm employment saw a significant decrease of 105,000 in October, with August and September also revised down by a total of 33,000 [1] Group 2: Wage Growth - The average hourly wage in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021, indicating a slowdown in real wage growth [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the overall weak data, there remains a divergence in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, leading to increased short-term volatility in gold prices [1] - The long-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset and its anti-inflation value continues to attract capital [1] Group 4: Gold Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased holdings from households or institutional investors seeking to diversify risk amid high macroeconomic uncertainty [2] Group 5: Gold Industry Index Performance - As of December 17, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.87%, with constituent stocks such as Shandong Gold and Jiangxi Copper seeing significant gains [2] - The gold stock ETF fund saw a turnover of 7.16% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 7.3346 million [2] Group 6: Top Holdings in Gold Industry Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 68.26% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the Hong Kong stock market for gold and precious metal stocks, with notable gains for companies like China Silver Group, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [1] - Spot silver prices surged by 4.00% to reach $66.29 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] - Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities, indicated a severe short squeeze in the silver market, emphasizing that the U.S. has listed silver as a critical mineral without a corresponding supply response [1] Group 2 - The demand for silver is expected to rise significantly, particularly from countries entering the artificial intelligence sector, which will require more silver for data centers [1] - The current trend suggests that silver prices could potentially reach $70 in the short term [1]

港股市场黄金及贵金属概念股走强，其中，中国白银集团涨超5%，赤峰黄金、山东黄金涨超3%，灵宝 黄金、紫金矿业涨超2%。 ...

消息面上，现货白银日内大涨4.00%报66.29美元/盎司，再创历史新高。Nirmal Bang Commodities研究主 管Kunal Shah表示，"白银市场出现了严重的空头挤压……在美国将银列入关键矿产清单后，我们没有 看到供应方面做出应有的反应。每个计划进入数据中心——人工智能领域的国家都需要更多的白银。目 前的趋势可能会在短期内将白银推向70美元。" 港股市场黄金及贵金属概念股走强，其中，中国白银集团涨超5%，赤峰黄金、山东黄金涨超3%，灵宝 黄金、紫金矿业涨超2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rise in gold and precious metal stocks, driven by a sharp increase in the price of silver, which reached a historical high of $66.29 per ounce, up 4.00% in a single day [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese Silver Group rose over 5%, while Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Shandong Gold increased by more than 3%, and Lingbao Gold and Zijin Mining rose over 2% [1] - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a severe short squeeze in the silver market [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities, noted that the U.S. has listed silver as a critical mineral, but there has been no adequate supply response [1] - Countries planning to enter the data center and artificial intelligence sectors will require more silver, indicating a potential increase in demand [1] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Current trends may push silver prices towards $70 in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced a significant afternoon rally, with Shanjin International rising over 5% [2] - Other companies in the sector, including Hunan Silver, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Shandong Gold, also saw increases in their stock prices [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on December 17, with the non-ferrous sector showing strong performance, particularly the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which rose over 2% in early trading and attracted over 830 million yuan in net subscriptions in the previous day [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF has seen net subscriptions exceeding 650 million yuan over the past 20 trading days, with its latest scale surpassing 3.5 billion yuan, indicating a strong market interest [1] - Key stocks within the Non-ferrous 50 ETF, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, saw significant gains, with Tianqi Lithium rising over 5% and Ganfeng Lithium over 4% [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 8% on December 17, reaching a new high since June 2024, with a cumulative increase of over 37% this year [3] - The Yichun city government plans to revoke mining licenses for 27 mining sites, including the Wuqiao ceramic stone mine, indicating regulatory actions impacting lithium supply [3] Group 3 - The current market dynamics for copper show a slight increase of 0.79% in LME copper prices, with expectations of a 10% reduction in copper smelting capacity to address negative processing fee trends [6] - The copper supply-demand gap is projected to widen, with increasing demand driven by traditional sectors and emerging technologies like AI, which is expected to significantly boost copper demand [16] Group 4 - The precious metals market is witnessing historical highs, with silver prices surpassing $65 per ounce and gold prices reaching over $4,320 per ounce, driven by strong investment demand and low inventory levels [5] - The financial attributes of gold, silver, and copper are expected to strengthen amid global inflation expectations and concerns over the US dollar's credit risk, making them attractive for investors seeking to hedge against uncertainty [12] Group 5 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a super cycle in non-ferrous metals, covering a wide range of metals including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, with a focus on strategic assets [26] - The ETF's composition shows a leading concentration in gold and copper, with copper accounting for 31% and gold for 14%, indicating a strong alignment with market trends [28]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The global monetary policy is shifting towards easing, with a significant increase in the proportion of central banks cutting rates from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025, indicating a transition from a tightening to an easing cycle [1] - The expansion of central bank balance sheets suggests a potential re-initiation of quantitative easing (QE), with the contraction rate of major central banks' balance sheets narrowing from -11.16% in April 2024 to -0.89% in October 2025 [2] - Historical data shows that during previous QE periods, commodity price indices, including energy and metals, experienced significant increases, with energy indices rising by 131.88% and metal price indices by 55.29% from 2020 to 2022 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk index has reached its third-highest level since the 1973 Middle East War, significantly increasing the safe-haven premium for precious metals like gold [3] - Gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to a structural tightening in supply, with global gold consumption averaging around 4,616 tons annually and central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years [4] - Silver supply is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% from 31,529 tons in 2024 to 32,666 tons in 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [6] Group 3: Specific Metal Insights - Platinum is anticipated to maintain a structural supply shortage, with a projected supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 due to weak mining supply and slow recovery in demand [7] - The demand for platinum jewelry is expected to recover due to high gold prices, while industrial demand remains resilient despite potential impacts from U.S. tariff policies [7] - The ongoing structural improvements in silver supply-demand dynamics and the increase in liquidity premiums are likely to support higher silver pricing [6]

Group 1 - The gold stocks experienced a decline, with Zijin Mining International (02259) down 5.05% at HKD 150.5, Zijin Mining (601899) down 3.13% at HKD 33.38, Tongguan Gold (00340) down 3.11% at HKD 2.8, and Shandong Gold (600547) down 2.85% at HKD 33.46 [2] Group 2 - A recent report from JPMorgan indicates that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will undergo an annual weight rebalancing in January 2026, with silver expected to face significant selling pressure, estimated at 9% of its total open contracts in the futures market. The report highlights that the selling pressure for silver this year is "more pronounced than last year," warranting investor caution [2] - The report also estimates that gold will see a selling scale of about 3% of its total open contracts in the futures market, which, despite being lower than silver, represents a substantial absolute selling amount due to gold's large market size [2] - Zhongyou Securities published a report stating that silver's volatility is high, and London inventories are recovering, suggesting that short-term squeeze logic may be temporarily paused. However, the long-term trend of de-dollarization is expected to continue, and with the inflow of ETF allocation funds amid short-term interest rate cuts, the outlook for the precious metals sector remains positive [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global geopolitical conflicts drive up the risk - aversion sentiment, the People's Bank of China continuously buys gold, and the Fed is still in the interest - rate cut channel, so the gold price is supported. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]. - The raw material for copper is in short supply, and the copper price is more likely to rise than fall. Suggestions are to focus on Zijin Mining and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, supply is restricted, new - energy demand contributes to the increase, and the situation of weak supply and strong demand continues. In terms of profit, the alumina production capacity will be gradually released in 2025, the alumina price will continue to decline, and the profit is expected to recover. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [5]. - For energy metals, there are frequent reports of production cuts from overseas supply - side, and signals of production cuts or shutdowns in the whole industry will continue to appear. The lithium price has bottomed out and rebounded as the in - depth integration of production capacity has begun. Suggestions are to focus on Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, and Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. [5]. - China tightens the tungsten supply, and the market continues to rise with reduced volume. Relevant companies are China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd. and Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: Since 2024, the gold price has repeatedly hit new highs. In different quarters from 24Q3 to 25Q3, various factors such as Fed's interest - rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, inflation, and tariff policies have affected the gold price. In the future, geopolitical, tariff policy changes, market risk preferences, and interest - rate cuts will still impact the gold price [8][13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold supply is stable, while global central banks are increasing their gold purchases. In 25Q3, central bank gold - buying demand was 219.85 tons, a 10.2% increase year - on - year. The People's Bank of China restarted the gold - buying channel in November 2024 and has continuously increased its gold holdings [14][21]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, and Zijin Mining. These companies have certain scales and performance flexibility. For example, in the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold's net profit attributable to shareholders was 28.08 billion yuan, a 102.98% year - on - year increase; Chifeng Gold planned to produce 16.0 tons of gold in 2025; Shanjin International's revenue and profit increased significantly; Zijin Mining's net profit attributable to shareholders was 233 billion yuan, a 54% year - on - year increase [22][23]. Copper - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply of copper ore is tight, which leads to the increase of copper price and compresses the profit of the smelting end. The copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC) have been declining since 2024, reaching - 43.08 US dollars/ton as of December 12, 2025. The difference between LME and COMEX copper inventories has widened, resulting in a short - term regional mismatch in copper supply [26][30]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and the output growth is restricted by power - rationing policies. Overseas, power supply is tight, and there are frequent shutdown events, leading to supply shortages [41]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand was 38.7697 million tons, a 5.72% year - on - year increase. The demand for aluminum in the automotive and photovoltaic industries is increasing. Aluminum - bodied new - energy vehicles can increase cruising range and reduce battery costs, and the photovoltaic industry is booming under policy support [42][48]. - **Cost and Profit**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity restricts the demand for alumina, and with the release of new production capacity, alumina is in oversupply. The decline in alumina price is beneficial to the profit of the electrolytic aluminum sector. Suggestions are to focus on Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., and Tianshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. [51][52]. Lithium - **Price and Market**: The price of lithium carbonate has bottomed out and rebounded. The market is generally optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year. With the gradual increase in supply, both supply and demand are booming, and the industry profit is gradually improving [56]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Zhongkuang Resources Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Co., Ltd., and other companies. The performance and profit expectations of these companies vary [60]. Tungsten - **Supply**: China tightens the tungsten supply, and the global supply is restricted. Regulatory strengthening and declining ore grades affect production capacity release, and supply is generally tight. In April 2025, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China issued the first - batch tungsten ore mining total - volume indicator of 58,000 tons [62][66]. - **Stock Recommendations**: Suggestions are to focus on Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., China Tungsten High - tech Co., Ltd., Xianglu Tungsten Co., Ltd., and Jiangxi Tungsten Equipment Co., Ltd. [67].