Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production, profits, and increasing inventory pressures among distributors [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. Sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%, while profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% [1]. - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half facing price inversion issues, indicating weak terminal consumption and reduced willingness to collect payments from distributors [1][2]. Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 experienced revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024, marking a 13 percentage point increase over five years [2]. Profitability Trends - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining, with notable drops in prices for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a broader trend of price decreases across the industry [3][4]. - Only three companies saw an increase in gross margin, while 16 experienced declines, with the most significant drops reported by Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Kouzi Liquor [4][7]. - The average net profit margin for many companies has also decreased, with Jiugui Liquor, Shunxin Agriculture, and Water Well Square showing the most significant declines [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with a shift from "volume reduction and price increase" to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2][3]. - Smaller liquor companies, particularly those with revenues below 5 billion yuan, are facing the most severe impacts, entering a destocking phase earlier than larger firms [4][5][6]. Financial Highlights - In the first half of 2025, the total net profit for 19 listed liquor companies was 97.003 billion yuan, with Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for 69% of this total [8]. - Six leading liquor companies contributed to 94% of the total net profit, while 11 companies reported net profits below 1 billion yuan, with some even incurring losses [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production and profits [1][3] - A majority of liquor distributors are facing increased inventory pressures, leading to a negative feedback loop affecting sales and payment collection [2][3] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%. Profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half experiencing price inversion issues, and the average inventory turnover days reached 900 days, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68%, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [3] - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024, marking increases of 13 and 9 percentage points respectively over five years [3] - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with the previous "volume reduction, price increase" model failing, leading to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [3][4] Profitability Trends - The gross and net profit margins of listed liquor companies are generally declining, with only three companies showing an increase in gross margin [5] - The most significant declines in gross margin were observed in companies like Jiu Gui Jiu, She De Jiu Ye, and Kou Zi Jiao [5][7] - In the first half of 2025, only three companies improved their net profit margin, while 16 experienced declines, with the most severe drops in Jiu Gui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Yang He Guo Jiu [5][8] Market Dynamics - The average gross margin for leading companies like Guizhou Moutai is 91.3%, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye follow with 87.09% and 76.83% respectively [8] - Four companies reported gross margins below 60%, with Shunxin Agriculture having the lowest at 34.36% [8] - The total net profit for 19 listed liquor companies reached 97.003 billion yuan, with Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for 69% of this total [8][9]

Market Overview - On September 12, the liquor sector declined by 0.79% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiu Gui Jiu leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - The following table summarizes the closing prices, percentage changes, trading volumes, and transaction amounts for key liquor stocks: - Jiu Gui Jiu (000799): Closed at 70.44, down 3.89%, with a trading volume of 300,400 shares and a transaction amount of 2.182 billion [1] - She De Jiu Ye (600702): Closed at 66.45, down 2.65%, with a trading volume of 148,100 shares and a transaction amount of 1.003 billion [1] - Shui Jing Fang (600779): Closed at 45.97, down 1.94%, with a trading volume of 49,200 shares and a transaction amount of 228 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Quan Wei Jiu (616809), ST Yan Shi (600696), and Ying Jia Gong Jiu (603198) with respective declines [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 1.307 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.057 billion [1] - The following table details the capital flow for specific liquor stocks: - Jiu Gui Jiu (000799): Institutional net outflow of 332 million, retail net inflow of 342 million [2] - She De Jiu Ye (600702): Institutional net outflow of 149 million, retail net inflow of 12 million [2] - Shui Jing Fang (600779): Institutional net outflow of 57 million, retail net inflow of 46 million [2] - Other stocks also showed varying degrees of institutional outflows and retail inflows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively launching new products and strategies to adapt to the changing market dynamics in the liquor industry, particularly focusing on low-alcohol beverages and leveraging cultural IP for brand positioning [2][3][11]. Product Launches - The company has introduced new high-end liquor products, including "舍得·万木争春" and "舍得坛装酒·舍得智慧人物," marking its first celebrity collaboration in the premium liquor segment [2]. - The new low-alcohol product "舍得自在," priced at 329 yuan, is positioned as a "low-alcohol drinking type" liquor, utilizing a blend of aged spirits [3][4]. Market Trends - The low-alcohol liquor market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size exceeding 740 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25% over the past five years, compared to the overall liquor industry's growth of 2%-3% [3]. - The company aims to target diverse consumer scenarios, including social gatherings and home consumption, with its low-alcohol offerings [4]. Sales Performance - The pre-sale of the new products on JD.com saw rapid consumer interest, with 20,000 people adding items to their carts within 24 hours and over 12,000 orders placed in 36 hours [5]. - The company's overall revenue for the first half of the year was 2.701 billion yuan, with a net profit of 443 million yuan, showing signs of recovery in the second quarter [13]. Strategic Focus - The company is implementing a strategy centered on "old liquor, multi-brand matrix, youthfulness, and internationalization," focusing on enhancing brand value while expanding its market reach [9]. - The management plans to establish "舍得" as the leading brand in the old liquor category and "沱牌" as a cost-effective mass-market brand [11]. Financial Health - The company reported a 31.38% year-on-year increase in e-commerce sales, amounting to 336 million yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a successful shift towards online sales channels [17]. - The company is actively managing inventory and pricing strategies to stabilize its financial performance, with a slight decrease in contract liabilities and an increase in inventory levels [16][14].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new high-end liquor products "Shede·Wanmuzhengchun" and "Shede Tan Zhuang Jiu·Shede Wisdom Figures" marks a significant step for Shede Liquor in extending its cultural IP into commercial operations, aiming to enhance its presence in the high-end private sector and implement a "comprehensive towards C" strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Strategy - The new products represent a deep collaboration between Shede Liquor and renowned media figure Lang Yongchun, emphasizing the shared values of "wisdom" and cultural resonance [2]. - The products are positioned not just as beverages but as tangible representations of time and experience, aiming to enhance consumers' appreciation of high-quality aged liquor [2]. - The launch is part of a broader strategy to break into elite consumer circles by leveraging the cultural strength of the "Shede Wisdom Figures" IP and Lang Yongchun's personal brand [2][3]. Group 2: Product Value Proposition - The new products are built on the core value of "rare aged liquor," focusing on four dimensions: ecological rarity, unique craftsmanship, limited collectibility, and cultural premium [3]. - The ecological aspect highlights the production site located in a prime winemaking region with a 98.5% green plant rate [3]. - The craftsmanship involves a 400-year-old technique using "golden yeast," with the base liquor aged in clay jars for natural maturation [3]. - Each product comes with a unique certification number and is crafted by a master of intangible cultural heritage, enhancing its exclusivity [3]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Future Plans - The event introduced the concept of "meeting friends over wine, enjoying health," establishing a unique high-end consumer service system [3]. - The company aims to provide a premium experience through a combination of product offerings, exclusive rights, and concierge services [3]. - Future plans include deepening the aged liquor strategy and continuously implementing the "comprehensive towards C" brand strategy to create more valuable products and experiences for consumers [3].

Group 1 - Zhenjiu Lidu has launched a merchant equity payment plan to incentivize qualified merchants, promoting long-term sustainable growth and development [1] - The equity payment plan will source shares from the controlling shareholder's donations and purchases from the secondary market, with a total of up to 169 million shares initially set for donation or purchase [1] - This initiative is expected to optimize channel structure and enhance manufacturer cooperation, potentially leading to a new trend in the liquor industry [1] Group 2 - Shede Liquor has reported significant progress in its internationalization strategy, with overseas retail terminals reaching a total of 1,200 and duty-free stores increasing to 100 globally [2] - The company has expanded its international business to 40 countries and regions, with notable growth in the Southeast Asian market [2] - This expansion is likely to optimize the company's revenue structure and enhance its global brand influence [2] Group 3 - Jinhui Liquor announced that board member Wang Ning has resigned from his position but has been elected as a worker representative director [3] - Wang Ning has extensive experience in sales and management, which may assist in advancing the company's strategic initiatives [3] - The governance structure of the liquor industry is continuously improving, indicating a trend towards enhanced corporate governance [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor has stabilized its channels after nearly a year of destocking, focusing on supporting small distributors and leveraging the T68 product to penetrate the mass liquor market [2][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, Shede Liquor achieved a net profit of 97.17 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 139.5%, while revenue remained stable at 1.125 billion yuan [2]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory levels to a reasonable range after several quarters of destocking efforts, which is reflected in the improved financial results [3][4]. Group 2: Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on e-commerce and direct sales channels while lowering initial order requirements to attract new distributors [3]. - A new small and micro customer management team has been established to support small distributors, enhancing their confidence and service quality [3][4]. Group 3: Product Development - The launch of the T68 product has led to a 15.86% year-on-year increase in sales revenue from ordinary liquor [4]. - The new low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" aligns with the trend towards lower alcohol consumption and diverse drinking scenarios, receiving positive market feedback [6]. Group 4: Market Strategy - The company is concentrating its resources on key markets in Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan, aiming to enhance market share through refined operations [4]. - A strategic focus on regional markets is being implemented, with plans to strengthen presence in both established and emerging markets [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has shown significant growth in recent months, with a notable increase in trading volume and market capitalization, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 11, Shede Liquor's stock rose by 2.07%, reaching 68.06 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 8.02 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.57%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 226.48 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Shede Liquor's stock price has increased by 3.90%, with a 3.47% rise over the last five trading days, 27.03% over the last 20 days, and 38.47% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Shede Liquor reported operating revenue of 2.701 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million CNY, down 24.98% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Shede Liquor has distributed a total of 2.29 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.353 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shede Liquor was 129,700, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 0.72% to 2,564 shares [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is the China Securities Index White Liquor Index A, holding 16.454 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [2].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor Industry announced a guarantee contract with Dalian Bank to secure various debt agreements for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sichuan Tuopai Shede Marketing Co., Ltd, with a maximum guarantee amount of RMB 240 million [2] Group 1: Guarantee Details - The guarantee covers debts arising from multiple agreements including foreign and domestic currency loan contracts, bank acceptance bills, and trade financing agreements, effective from August 28, 2025, to July 23, 2026 [2] - The maximum amount of the guarantee does not exceed RMB 240 million, with no counter-guarantee provided [2] Group 2: Financial Impact - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to RMB 2.5 billion, representing 35.06% of the latest audited net assets [2] - The actual external guarantee balance is RMB 240 million, accounting for 3.37% of the latest audited net assets [2]

舍得酒业股份有限公司 关于为全资子公司提供融资担保的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 担保对象及基本情况 证券代码：600702 证券简称：舍得酒业 公告编号：2025-046 | | 被担保人名称 本次担保金额 | 24,000 | 四川沱牌舍得营销有限公司 万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 担保 | | | | | 对象 | 实际为其提供的担保余额 | 24,000 | 万元（含本次） | | | 是否在前期预计额度内 | 是 | □否 □不适用：_________ | | | 本次担保是否有反担保 | □是 | 否 □不适用：_________ | 累计担保情况 | 对外担保逾期的累计金额（万元） | 0 | | --- | --- | | 截至本公告日上市公司及其控股 | 250,000 | | 子公司对外担保总额（万元） | | | 对外担保总额占上市公司最近一 期经审计净资产的比例（%） | 35.06 | 注：表中截至本公告日上市公司及其 ...