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受俄乌、委内瑞拉地缘政治博弈影响,12月油价震荡下跌 | 投研报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 02:42
Core Insights - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, a decrease of $2.0 per barrel month-on-month, with a month-end price of $60.9 per barrel. WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 per barrel month-on-month, closing at $57.4 per barrel [1] - OPEC+ plans to completely exit a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025, and on September 7, 2025, it was decided to lift the voluntary production cut agreement of 1.66 million barrels per day reached in April 2023 within 12 months [1] Supply Side - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal reasons, despite plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from October to December 2025 [1] - The IEA indicated that there would be a significant oversupply in the oil market next year, contributing to price fluctuations [1] Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in global oil demand of 830,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with demand estimates from OPEC, IEA, and EIA for 2025 being 105.14, 103.85, and 103.94 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting increases of 130, 83, and 114 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024 [2] - For 2026, oil demand is expected to grow by 860,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day, with estimates of 106.52, 104.71, and 105.17 million barrels per day from the same agencies [2] Industry Outlook - The Chinese petrochemical industry is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side dynamics through strict control of new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the release of new ethylene and paraxylene capacities [3] - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2026 is projected to be between $55 and $65 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel, influenced by high fiscal balance oil price costs from OPEC+ and elevated new well costs in U.S. shale oil [3] - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [3]
天津:国家管网天津LNG接收站迎来新年首船液化天然气
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 20:49
Core Viewpoint - The arrival of the "Mars" LNG carrier at the Tianjin LNG receiving station marks the commencement of LNG unloading operations for the year 2026, indicating a significant development in the LNG supply chain for the region [1]. Group 1 - The "Mars" LNG carrier is transporting 64,400 tons of LNG, highlighting the scale of LNG imports being handled by the Tianjin receiving station [1]. - This event represents the first LNG unloading operation at the national pipeline's Tianjin LNG receiving station for the year 2026, showcasing the station's operational capabilities [1].
中国海洋石油(00883.HK):1月5日南向资金增持2601.85万股
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 19:24
中国海洋石油有限公司是一家主要从事原油和天然气勘探、开发、生产及销售的中国公司。该公司通过三个分部开展业务。勘探及生产分部从事 上游石油业务,主要包括常规油气业务,页岩油气业务,油砂业务和其他非常规油气业务。贸易业务分部从事原油贸易业务,主要包括石油产品 分成合同下销售归属于外国合作方的原油及天然气以及第三方原油贸易业务。公司业务分部从事总部管理、资金管理,以及研究开发等业务。该公 司主要在国内及海外市场开展业务。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网信算备310104345710301240019号),不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息,1月5日南向资金增持2601.85万股中国海洋石油(00883.HK)。近5个交易日中,获南向资金增持的有3天,累计净增持3234.11万 股。近20个交易日中,获南向资金减持的有11天,累计净减持2210.98万股。截至目前,南向资金持有中国海洋石油(00883.HK)102.29亿股,占 公司已发行普通股的21.52%。 | 交易日 | 持股总数(股) | 持股变动(股) | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-0 ...
油气行业2025年12月月报:受俄乌、委内瑞拉地缘政治博弈影响,12月油价震荡下跌-20260105
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-05 13:56
Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [4] Core Views - The report indicates that oil prices experienced fluctuations and a downward trend in December 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, despite previous plans to increase output [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is expected to grow in 2025 and 2026, with estimates ranging from 83,000 to 130,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 86,000 to 138,000 barrels per day for 2026 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [1][12] - The fluctuations in oil prices were attributed to various geopolitical events, including the attack on the Russian Friendship Pipeline and sanctions on Venezuela [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a period of planned increases in late 2025 [1][16] - The report highlights that OPEC+ aims to maintain a balance in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026 [3][36] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand for 2025 and 2026, with specific figures provided by OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] - The report notes that the refining industry in China is facing overcapacity issues, leading to stricter controls on new refining projects [3][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development, as key investment opportunities [4]
委内瑞拉危机下为何油价仍萎靡?“三桶油”股价齐跌、油服股大涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 12:44
美国1月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动,突袭委首都加拉加斯,派兵强行控制委总统马杜罗夫 妇并移送出境。地缘政治风险骤然升温令投资者纷纷涌入避险资产,周一开盘现货黄金、白银、钯金、 铂金集体飙升。在创纪录的供应过剩面前,全球最大石油储量国委内瑞拉遭袭几乎未在油市激起水花, 两大国际基准油价开盘后小幅波动。截至发稿,纽约商品交易所2月交货的WTI原油期货价格日内上涨 0.28%,现报57.48美元/桶;3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格日内微涨0.15%,报60.84美元/桶。 1月5日,"三桶油"股价齐跌。中国石油(601857.SH)、中国海油(600938.SH)分别收跌3.27%和 3.78%,中国石化(600028.SH)跌幅稍小,股价下滑1.46%。港股方面,中国石油股份(00857.HK)一 度重挫逾5%、收跌3.52%,中国海洋石油(00883.HK)下跌3.29%,中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)下 跌1.91%。 委内瑞拉曾是世界上最大的石油出口国,是石油输出国组织(OPEC)的五大创始成员国之一。OPEC 数据显示,委内瑞拉拥有全球约17%的石油储量——3030亿桶,超过了OPEC的 ...
恒生指数上涨0.03% 恒生科技指数上涨0.09%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 12:04
成交额前三的个股中,阿里巴巴涨2.55%,成交超156亿港元;腾讯控股涨0.24%,成交超124亿港元; 中芯国际涨1.86%,成交超99亿港元。 (文章来源:新华财经) 整体来看,多数板块上涨,生物医药、芯片、房地产、电力、券商等股多为上涨,科网、新消费、煤 炭、有色金属等股有涨有跌,银行、新能源汽车、石油与天然气等股多有下跌。 个股方面,快手涨11.09%,小米集团跌2.33%,中国平安涨2.69%,美团涨0.76%,中国海洋石油跌 3.29%,华虹半导体涨3.32%,中国人寿涨3.40%,石药集团涨4.83%,壁仞科技跌3.66%,诺比侃涨 21.60%,英诺赛科跌9.42%,小鹏汽车跌4.60%,周大福涨5.13%,工商银行跌2.05%。 5日,港股主要指数高开后震荡整理,截至收盘,恒生指数上涨0.03%至26347.24点,恒生科技指数上涨 0.09%至5741.63点,国企指数下跌0.22%至9148.47点。 当日恒指高开22.97点,开报26361.44点,开盘上行,午前回落至开盘价附近,午后开盘在26351点附近 震荡,最终恒指涨8.77点,主板成交超2834亿港元。当日,港股通(南向)净流 ...
工商银行行长刘珺走访国家管网集团
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 11:50
Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China National Petroleum and Natural Gas Pipeline Group (National Pipeline Group) focuses on deepening strategic cooperation and accelerating the construction of a new energy system [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - ICBC and National Pipeline Group are strategic partners, maintaining close cooperation in implementing national energy security strategies and accelerating the construction of new energy infrastructure [1][2]. - The meeting involved key figures from both organizations, including ICBC's Vice President Liu Jun and National Pipeline Group's Chairman Zhang Wei, indicating high-level engagement [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Initiatives - ICBC aims to leverage its comprehensive financial service advantages to expand cooperation with National Pipeline Group in areas such as green low-carbon transformation and digital upgrades of energy infrastructure [1][2]. - The bank plans to provide comprehensive financial solutions to support National Pipeline Group in building its "second curve" and constructing a "quality energy network," contributing to the goal of becoming a strong energy nation [1][2].
图解丨南下资金净买入港股187亿港元,大幅买入快手和小米
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-05 10:28
Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 18.723 billion HKD today [1] - The top net purchases included: - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong: 6.826 billion HKD - Kuaishou-W: 1.556 billion HKD - Xiaomi Group-W: 1.019 billion HKD - SMIC: 360 million HKD - CNOOC: 328 million HKD - Hua Hong Semiconductor: 322 million HKD - Meituan-W: 279 million HKD - Alibaba-W: 272 million HKD - China Life: 245 million HKD - Nanjing Panda Electronics: 105 million HKD [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds net sold Tencent Holdings worth 918 million HKD and China Mobile worth 406 million HKD [2] - Tencent has seen a continuous net sell for 6 days, totaling 4.86189 billion HKD [2] - Hua Hong Semiconductor has experienced a continuous net buy for 5 days, totaling 936.63 million HKD [2] - SMIC has seen a net buy for 3 consecutive days, totaling 1.5115 billion HKD [2] - Xiaomi has also seen a net buy for 3 consecutive days, totaling 1.48281 billion HKD [2] Group 3 - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, Alibaba-W had a net sell of 239 million HKD with a trading volume of 5.57 billion HKD [3] - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, Kuaishou-W had a significant increase of 11.1% with a net buy of 1.154 billion HKD [3] - Xiaomi Group-W experienced a decrease of 2.3% with a net buy of 602 million HKD [3] - Nanjing Panda Electronics saw a notable increase of 39.8% with a net buy of 105 million HKD [3]
石油石化行业今日净流出资金1.16亿元,洲际油气等10股净流出资金超千万元
石油石化行业资金流向排名 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅(%) | 今日换手率(%) | 主力资金流量(万元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600759 | 洲际油气 | -2.56 | 19.35 | -21650.80 | | 600938 | 中国海油 | -3.78 | 3.13 | -15996.59 | | 600028 | 中国石化 | -1.46 | 0.23 | -4280.87 | | 600506 | 统一股份 | 2.44 | 20.00 | -3199.24 | | 601233 | 桐昆股份 | -2.03 | 1.71 | -2375.96 | | 000059 | 华锦股份 | 0.93 | 2.26 | -2169.55 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | -2.31 | 0.56 | -1815.92 | | 600800 | 渤海化学 | -1.16 | 3.13 | -1366.60 | | 600688 | 上海石化 | -1.08 | 0.97 | -1123.35 | | 000096 | 广聚能源 | 0.78 ...
油气开采板块1月5日跌2.49%,中国海油领跌,主力资金净流出2.98亿元
从资金流向上来看,当日油气开采板块主力资金净流出2.98亿元,游资资金净流入7602.98万元,散户资 金净流入2.22亿元。油气开采板块个股资金流向见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | | | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) 散户净占比 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000968 蓝焰控股 | | 792.01万 | 5.72% | 120.08万 | 0.87% | -912.09万 | -6.59% | | 600777 | *ST新潮 | -365.97万 | -7.27% | 176.38万 | 3.51% | 189.59万 | 3.77% | | 600938 中国海油 | | -1.05 亿 | -3.86% | 6151.73万 | 2.25% | 4379.99万 | 1.60% | | 600759 洲际油气 | | -1.97亿 | -7.84% | 1154.79万 | 0.46% | 1.85 Z | 7.38% | 证券之星消息,1月5日油气开采板块 ...