Group 1 - Morgan Stanley estimates that after Maduro leaves Venezuela, local oil production may experience a temporary shock, potentially declining by 50% [1] - If political and operational stability is restored, production could quickly recover, with the potential to reach 1.4 million barrels per day within two years and 2.5 million barrels per day in the next decade, compared to the current production of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day [1] - The impact on Chinese oil companies is limited, as most Venezuelan crude oil processed is by independent or small refineries rather than major listed companies like Sinopec or PetroChina, which do not have commercial assets in Venezuela [1] Group 2 - The company is optimistic about PetroChina due to its successful decoupling from oil prices through local natural gas operations, with expected dividends of 0.26 yuan in the second half of the year [1] - Lower oil prices and interest rates may accelerate the recovery of oil-based chemical stocks, leading to an "overweight" rating for Hengli Petrochemical [1] - Due to weak short-term profit prospects, Sinopec is given a "neutral" rating, with plans to reassess after the clarity of its 14th Five-Year Plan strategy [1]

至于对中国油企的影响，该行指，虽然委内瑞拉原油在2025年占中国原油进口总量4%，但由于美国制 裁，其中大部分由独立炼厂或小型炼厂加工，而非中石化或中石油等上市公司。另外，中石化及中海油 在委内瑞拉并无商业资产。若中国真的失去委内瑞拉原油，对中国的炼油业影响亦有限，因仍有其他原 油可取代。 摩根大通估算，马杜罗离开委内瑞拉后，当地石油产量可能会经历短暂冲击，产量或下跌50%。不过， 若政治及营运等恢复稳定，生产将迅速复苏，当地产量有机会在两年内恢复至每日140万桶，并在未来 十年达到每日250万桶，而目前产量仅为每日80万至90万桶。 股份方面，该行看好中石油，因其通过本地天然气业务成功与油价脱钩，料下半年股息可达0.26元。另 外，较低的油价及利率环境亦可能加速油基化工股的复苏，该行予恒力石化"增持"评级。基于短期盈利 前景疲弱，该行予中石化"中性"评级，待其"十五五"规划策略更清晰后将重新评估。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at a slight decline of 0.17%, indicating a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at 1.192 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% [1] - Since its establishment on June 25, 2015, the fund has achieved a return of 19.49%, with a recent one-month return of 0.29% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - China Shenhua opened with an increase of 0.54% [1] - China Petroleum experienced a decline of 1.17% [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry rose by 0.90% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.65% [1] - CNOOC saw a decrease of 1.14% [1] - Jereh Group dropped by 0.74% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company increased by 1.11% [1] - Guanghui Energy remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] - China Coal Energy rose by 0.69% [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal increased significantly by 3.95% [1]

Group 1 - The oil and gas extraction sector increased by 2.8% compared to the previous trading day, with Intercontinental Oil & Gas leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] - The main capital inflow in the oil and gas extraction sector was 577 million yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 395 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Intercontinental Oil & Gas (code: 600759) saw a closing price of 3.34 yuan, with a significant increase of 9.87% and a trading volume of 8.12 million shares [1] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (code: 600938) had a closing price of 29.79 yuan, rising by 2.58% with a trading volume of 581,300 shares [1] - Blue Flame Holdings (code: 000968) closed at 6.87 yuan, up 1.63%, with a trading volume of 197,300 shares [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) experienced a decline in stock price and trading volume, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [1] - On January 5, CNOOC's stock fell by 3.78%, with a trading volume of 2.731 billion yuan, and a net financing purchase of 143 million yuan [1] - As of January 5, the total margin balance for CNOOC was 1.738 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 1.99% of the circulating market value, which is below the 50th percentile level over the past year [1] Group 2 - CNOOC was established on August 20, 1999, and listed on April 21, 2022, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and sales of crude oil and natural gas [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 82.73% from oil and gas sales, 14.96% from trading, and 2.31% from other activities [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, CNOOC reported a revenue of 312.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.971 billion yuan, down 12.59% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - CNOOC has distributed a total of 255.995 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 179.051 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for CNOOC was 216,500, a decrease of 7.02% from the previous period [3] - The largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, has exited the top ten list of shareholders [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the geopolitical situation is driving oil prices higher, with the Venezuelan oil supply being significantly disrupted, leading to a potential short-term increase in oil prices [1] - The China Securities report indicates that Venezuela's oil exports have essentially halted, creating a supply disruption in the global market, with a potential shortfall of around 1 million barrels per day [1] - The current global oil market remains in a supply surplus, with expectations that oil prices will fluctuate between $60 to $70 per barrel despite short-term upward pressure [1] Group 2 - The National Oil and Gas Index (399439) has seen a strong increase of 1.45%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Intercontinental Oil and Gas (600759) up 9.21% and Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) up 4.36% [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Oil and Gas Index as of December 31, 2025, include major companies like China National Petroleum (601857) and China Petroleum & Chemical (600028), collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Oil and Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector [2][3]

中化新网讯 1月2日，中国海油对外宣布，我国海上最大气田"深海一号"近期完成投产以来的第100船原 油外输工作，2025年气田油气总产量突破450万吨油当量。 "自2021年投产以来，经过4年多的持续探索，'深海一号'作业团队自主建立起一套超深水气田生产运维 完整技术体系。"中国海油陵水—崖城作业公司总经理李劲松表示，"深海一号"能源站的原油外输作业 用时从最初的18小时，缩短到现在的8小时以内。 图为穿梭油轮正与"深海一号"能源站对接输油。(徐海舟 摄) "深海一号"气田是我国迄今为止自主开发的作业水深最深、地层温压最高、勘探开发难度最大、天然气 产能最大的海上气田，最大作业水深超1500米，地层最高温度达到138摄氏度，天然气探明地质储量超 1500亿立方米。目前，"深海一号"每天产出1500万立方米的天然气和超过1600吨的凝析油，部分凝析油 被分别存储于平台四根立柱的储油舱中，达到一定规模后通过穿梭油轮进行外输。 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and sales of crude oil and natural gas, with operations in China, Canada, the USA, the UK, Nigeria, and Brazil [2] - The company's revenue composition includes 82.73% from oil and gas sales, 14.96% from trading, and 2.31% from other activities [2] - CNOOC was established on August 20, 1999, and was listed on April 21, 2022 [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, CNOOC reported a revenue of 312.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.97 billion yuan, down 12.59% year-on-year [2] - CNOOC has distributed a total of 255.995 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 179.051 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Activity - As of January 6, CNOOC's stock price increased by 2.03% to 29.63 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 905 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.04%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 1,408.313 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, CNOOC's stock price has decreased by 1.82%, but it has seen a 4.66% increase over the last five trading days, a 2.38% increase over the last 20 days, and a 13.51% increase over the last 60 days [1] - The net inflow of main funds was 20.8517 million yuan, with large orders accounting for 23.16% of purchases and 21.54% of sales [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the petrochemical industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Zhongzheng Petrochemical Industry Index rising by 2.58% and significant inflows into the Petrochemical ETF, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1][2] - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a total inflow of 24.46 million yuan over the past 8 trading days, reaching a new high of 246 million yuan in total scale, reflecting increased investor interest [1][2] - The Petrochemical ETF has achieved a net value increase of 43.18% over the past two years, with a maximum single-month return of 15.86% since its inception, showcasing strong performance metrics [1][2] Group 2 - A new round of national subsidies amounting to 62.5 billion yuan has been initiated, aimed at supporting the replacement of consumer goods and equipment upgrades, which is expected to positively impact demand in the petrochemical sector [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Petrochemical Industry Index account for 56.73% of the index, with leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical being key contributors to the index's performance [2][4] - The petrochemical industry is anticipated to benefit from improved demand in downstream sectors such as consumer goods, home appliances, automobiles, and real estate, driven by supportive policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - December oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent crude averaging $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [2] Supply Side - OPEC+ plans to fully exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025, and on September 7, 2025, it was decided to lift the voluntary production cut agreement of 1.66 million barrels per day reached in April 2023 within 12 months [2] - OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from October to December 2025, but decided to suspend the production increase plan for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal reasons during the meeting on November 30 [2] Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in global crude oil demand of 830,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and an increase of 860,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [3] - According to OPEC, IEA, and EIA reports, crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 105.14, 103.85, and 103.94 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of 130, 83, and 114 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry in China is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side measures as outlined in the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" released by seven ministries in September 2025 [4] - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the timing of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity releases [4] - The expected price range for Brent crude in 2026 is projected to be between $55 and $65 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be between $52 and $62 per barrel [4] - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), China Petroleum (601857), Satellite Chemical (002648), and CNOOC Development (600968) [4]