股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 東方證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600958 | 說明 | 上海證券交易所 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 7,469,482,864 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 7,469,482,864 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 7,469,482,864 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 7,469,482,864 | | ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 東方證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年1月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600958 | 說明 | 上海證券交易所 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 7,469,482,864 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 7,469,482,864 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 7,469,482,864 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 7,469,482,864 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector for 2026, indicating strong upward momentum for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a significant upward breakthrough in 2026, driven by improved chip structure, reduced turnover rates, and a favorable valuation environment. The sector is currently undervalued compared to its earnings potential [4]. - The insurance sector shows signs of stabilization post the interest rate switch, with premium growth expected to improve in 2026, particularly in the life insurance segment [4]. - Regulatory changes, including the completion of public fund fee reforms, are anticipated to benefit the non-bank financial sector by reducing costs for investors and enhancing market participation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,629.94 with a decline of 0.59% over the week. The non-bank index fell by 1.84%, with brokerages and insurance indices declining by 1.37% and 3.33%, respectively [8][10]. Non-Bank Financial Insights - The brokerage sector's index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.78 percentage points in 2025, with a total decline of 2.05% for the year. In contrast, major A-share indices saw significant gains [4]. - The insurance sector's original premium income reached 5.76 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. The life insurance segment grew by 9.2% during the same period [4][31]. Investment Analysis - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on leading firms with strong competitive advantages, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [4]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life and Ping An are highlighted for their potential in the upcoming market revaluation, with a focus on the growth of new business premiums [4]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented new rules for public real estate investment trusts (REITs), expanding financing options for commercial properties [21]. - The completion of the public fund fee reform is expected to lower overall fund costs by approximately 20%, saving investors around 51 billion yuan annually [22].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the public fund fee reform has concluded, and insurance companies are expected to perform well, indicating potential investment opportunities in the spring market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.30% week-on-week [6]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - Insurance companies are anticipated to maintain high growth in performance, with short-term results expected to exceed expectations and long-term interest rate spreads likely to improve [17]. - The Ministry of Finance released a draft revision of the accounting standards, enhancing the clarity of profit sources for insurance companies and improving comparability across industries [17]. - Key stocks to watch in the insurance sector include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, among others [17]. Group 3: Securities Sector - The public fund fee reform is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a fee reduction of about 20% [18]. - The reform includes differentiated redemption fee structures aimed at promoting long-term investment and reducing short-term trading behaviors [19]. - The introduction of new REITs regulations is expected to enhance the market's quality and expand opportunities for securities firms [24][28]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a target price of 85.17 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 8.91 yuan for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.68 [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) has a target price of 94.21 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 14.04 yuan for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 4.96 [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation metrics for various companies in the sector indicate potential upside, with several stocks rated as "Buy" [7].

东方证券研报指出，重庆银行深耕本土，网点聚焦主城区域，区域经济增长动能拐点带动重庆银行需求 拐点，扩表动能强劲，市场份额逐步提升且斜率愈发陡峭。公司对公优势夯实，零售边际企稳，扩表动 能持续强劲；存量风险出清，资产质量改善可期。同时，重庆经济增长拐点已现，城投化债稳步推进， 区域信用环境边际改善，为银行经营创造良好环境。24年以来基本面拐点确立，25年业绩加速释放，前 三季度营收利润增速均实现10%+，未来ROE具备较大改善潜力。采用可比公司估值法，可比公司26年 PB平均值为0.69倍，对应目标价12.70元/股，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The public fund sales fee reform has been smoothly implemented, with a focus on benefiting investors and addressing market concerns. The reform is expected to save approximately 51 billion CNY in investment costs annually, with a comprehensive fee rate reduction of about 20% [5]. - The new rules on redemption fees have been established to protect market liquidity while benefiting investors. The differentiation in redemption fees is aimed at encouraging long-term investment practices [5]. - The classification of products and supporting policies have been upgraded to create a more refined fee rate regulatory system, promoting the development of index funds and equity funds [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management institutions' service capabilities in the context of the growing equity fund market, suggesting a focus on companies like Huatai Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued new regulations on public fund sales fees, effective from January 1, 2026, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reduction process [5]. - The third phase of the reform is projected to provide approximately 30 billion CNY in annual benefits to investors [5]. Product Classification - The new regulations simplify redemption fee structures into three tiers and allow flexible arrangements for different types of funds, particularly benefiting individual investors in index funds [5]. - The maximum subscription fee rates have been refined, with specific caps for different fund types, encouraging the growth of index funds [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the reforms and the anticipated growth in the equity fund market, including Huatai Securities (AH), CICC (H), Guotai Junan (AH), and CITIC Securities (AH) [5].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market in 2026 is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations within a range of 16,000 to 18,000 yuan per ton. Seasonal factors may create temporary supply-demand gaps that could elevate prices [4]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of December 26, 2025, Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons [1]. - On January 2, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered lead warrants of 162,500 tons, with canceled warrants down by 6,025 tons to 76,825 tons, and total lead inventory reduced by 2,600 tons to 239,325 tons [1]. - A medium-sized recycled lead smelting enterprise in Southwest China plans to reduce production by 20%-30% in January due to ongoing raw material supply constraints [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is seeing a slight increase in ore and waste battery recovery, with refined lead production continuing to grow [4]. - Demand is supported by policies encouraging replacements, with positive growth in electric two-wheelers and potential increases in energy storage and lead-carbon batteries. However, exports of lead-acid batteries may decline due to high Shanghai-London price ratios, trade frictions, and tariffs in the Middle East [4]. - The overall assessment indicates a slight domestic surplus, with seasonal consumption expected to pressure prices after a minor uptick at the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Recommendations - Recent reductions in recycled lead production are primarily due to raw material supply issues, compounded by environmental controls in East and North China [4]. - Downstream large manufacturers are experiencing weaker operations, attributed to the end-of-month accounting period, although there remains some buying activity in the spot market [4]. - The terminal demand is showing significant differentiation, with replacement demand affected by new national standards and automotive battery consumption entering a peak season, though the seasonal effect may not match previous years due to competition from lithium alternatives [4]. - Inventory levels are currently fluctuating downwards, with no significant short-term recovery expected, leading to limited upward potential for lead prices. A cautious trading approach is recommended [4].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a focus on equity products and mid-cap blue-chip industries for asset allocation in January 2026, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares and commodities, while maintaining a neutral stance on U.S. stocks and bonds [2][61] - The report highlights that A-shares are expected to experience slight upward movement with limited odds but a relatively high win rate historically in January, while the overall sentiment remains neutral to slightly bullish [11][61] - The performance of various asset allocation strategies since 2025 is noted, with low-volatility strategies yielding an annualized return of 6.2%, medium-low volatility strategies at 11.7%, and medium-high volatility strategies at 17.6% [7][62] Group 2 - The industry rotation strategy for January recommends focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, telecommunications, electronics, and media, driven by a return of risk appetite [42][48] - The report indicates that the industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks, achieving an annualized return of 40% since 2025, significantly surpassing the performance of the CSI 800 and mixed equity funds [44][45] - The ETF strategy for January includes recommendations for ETFs in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, telecommunications, information technology, and gaming, aligning with the broader asset allocation strategy [50][55]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese securities industry underwent profound changes under the strategy of "cultivating first-class investment banks," marked by resource integration, technological empowerment, and ecological restructuring, signaling a new chapter for the industry. Group 1: Major Events - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in 2025 established a new "dual leader" pattern in the industry, with the combined entity "Guotai Haitong" reporting a net profit of 22.074 billion yuan, closely following CITIC Securities' 23.159 billion yuan, both surpassing the 20 billion yuan mark [4] - The first "three-in-one" integration in the industry is being planned by CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, which, if completed, will create a new model for industry integration with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [5] - The margin trading balance reached a historical high of 2.551734 trillion yuan by December 29, 2025, accounting for 2.59% of the A-share market's circulating market value, with a 288% year-on-year increase in new accounts opened in September 2025 [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and renamed the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" in 2025, focusing on guiding the industry to serve national strategies and enhancing professional capabilities [7] - AI applications in securities firms accelerated, with leading institutions showcasing advancements at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, enhancing capabilities in investment research and risk control [8] Group 3: Leadership and Talent Dynamics - Over 10 chief economists in the securities industry changed positions in 2025, primarily due to the merger wave, indicating a significant reshuffling of talent [9] - More than 50 securities firms experienced changes in leadership roles, with approximately one-third of firms undergoing a "leadership change," driven by factors such as retirement and shareholder changes due to mergers [10] Group 4: Market Competition and Trends - Despite the rising trend of "anti-involution," a price war among securities firms intensified, with commission rates dropping to as low as 0.01% and financing rates falling below 4%, highlighting the need for the industry to return to its core financial services [11] - Securities firms were first included as issuers of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds in May 2025, with total issuance exceeding 80 billion yuan since then, enhancing their competitive edge [12] - The wave of public fund business that began in 2022 receded in 2025, with several institutions withdrawing their applications for public fund qualifications, indicating a shift in business models [14]

Core Viewpoint - The competition landscape among securities firms in the A-share IPO market has solidified with the successful listings of companies like Hengdongguang and Xinguoyi, marking the end of the 2025 A-share IPO season [1] Group 1: Overall Market Dynamics - Leading securities firms maintain a strong competitive edge, while smaller firms have made breakthroughs in niche segments. The top five firms account for nearly half of the total IPO projects in the market [2] - In 2025, the top five securities firms by IPO underwriting numbers are Guotai Haitong (19), CITIC Securities (17), CITIC Jianou (12), China Merchants Securities (10), and Huatai United (9) [3] Group 2: Differentiated Competition - The dual innovation board is a key platform for financing technology and emerging industries, raising a total of 633.71 billion yuan, which constitutes nearly half of the annual IPO fundraising total. This area is highly competitive among securities firms [4] - CITIC Securities leads the Sci-Tech Innovation Board with an underwriting scale of 168.95 billion yuan, capturing over 44% of the market share. Notable projects like Moore Threads contributed significantly to this figure [4] - The top five firms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in terms of underwriting numbers are CITIC Securities (7), CITIC Jianou (3), CICC (3), Huatai United (2), and others [5] - For the Growth Enterprise Market, Guotai Haitong and China Merchants Securities have a notable lead with 6 and 4 projects respectively, and underwriting amounts of 57.61 billion yuan and 45.46 billion yuan [6] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Association released the 2025 evaluation results for securities firms' investment banking business, indicating a focus on quality control and compliance. Twelve firms received an A rating, with five firms maintaining this rating for two consecutive years [9] - The dynamic optimization of the evaluation system reflects the ongoing trend of strict regulation and compliance in the securities industry [9] Group 4: Outlook for 2026 - The IPO market is expected to remain active in 2026, with a structural optimization characterized by stable volume and improved quality. The dual innovation sector is anticipated to see an expansion in financing and quality [10] - Hard technology companies in sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, commercial aerospace, and biomedicine are expected to increase their presence in the capital market [10] - The competition among securities firms will intensify, focusing on serving technological innovation and industrial upgrades, with a continued evolution in the competitive landscape between leading firms and niche market leaders [10]