Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates that the central bank's renewed mention of "cross-cycle adjustment" suggests a relatively cautious monetary policy stance, with expectations for the banking sector's relative returns to improve in Q4 2025 due to stabilizing interest margins and positive fundamental trends [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The overall monetary policy remains moderately loose, but the central bank's emphasis on "cross-cycle adjustment" indicates a more cautious approach to monetary policy [2]. - With a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, the necessity for significant policy stimulus has decreased, and the likelihood of major rate cuts is low [2]. Credit Growth - The report suggests that credit growth will continue to decline, with Q4 credit growth expected to remain lower than previous levels due to a larger base effect [3]. - In Q3 2025, credit growth decreased by 0.92 trillion yuan year-on-year, with corporate and household loans also showing declines [3]. Interest Margin - The report emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to support banks' net interest margins, which are expected to stabilize [4]. - As of Q3 2025, listed banks' net interest margins have stabilized, benefiting from a significant reduction in funding costs, while asset yields have decreased [4]. Risk Management - The report highlights the need for an orderly resolution of risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with an acceleration in mergers and restructuring expected [5]. - The establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is emphasized to enhance financial stability [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including specific stocks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ningbo Bank [6]. - It also recommends state-owned banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China [6].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector shows positive fundamentals with long-term investment value highlighted by three key supporting arguments Group 1: Positive Outlook for Insurance Companies - The expectation for the "opening red" (a term for the first quarter performance) is optimistic, with major listed insurance companies setting targets for Q1 2026 that exceed previous market expectations, driven by competitive account support, increased cooperation with state-owned banks, and the introduction of higher-value long-term products, with anticipated new business value (NBV) growth exceeding 20% for leading companies [1] - The recovery of dividend assets and stable long-term interest rates are beneficial for insurance companies' investment returns, as recent price trends for dividend assets, represented by bank stocks, have been positive, and insurance companies have increased their holdings in these assets, leading to favorable investment returns in Q4 [1] - The performance of insurance companies appears attractive relative to their valuations, with expected return on equity (ROE) for most listed insurers reaching 15-25% for 2025-2026, while current price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are at 1-1.2 times and 0.5-0.7 times, respectively, which are below historical averages [1] Group 2: Index and ETF Information - The insurance securities ETF closely tracks the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index, which selects securities from the insurance sector based on the CSI 800 Index, providing investors with diversified investment options [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index include China Ping An, Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, China Pacific Insurance, Huatai Securities, China Life, GF Securities, China Merchants Securities, and Dongfang Securities, collectively accounting for 62.44% of the index [2]

责任编辑：常福强 东方证券董事长将换人，券业格局又要重塑？详细拆解哪些传言可能性大，哪些传言可能性小新浪声 明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点 或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 来源：芭菲媛 ...

Market Performance - On November 13, the securities sector rose by 1.03%, with Dongxing Securities leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Dongxing Securities (601198) closed at 13.12, up 4.13% with a trading volume of 729,200 shares and a turnover of 938 million [1] - Huaxi Securities (002926) closed at 66.6, up 2.67% with a trading volume of 485,400 shares [1] - Zhongyin Securities (601696) closed at 13.86, up 2.67% with a trading volume of 549,300 shares [1] - Huatai Securities (601688) closed at 22.84, up 2.42% with a trading volume of 1,895,800 shares [1] - Other notable stocks include Guangfa Securities (000776) and Dongfang Fortune (300059), which also saw increases in their closing prices [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net inflow of 328 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 124 million [1] - Dongfang Fortune (300059) had a significant net inflow of 460 million from institutional investors, despite a net outflow of 309 million from retail investors [2] - Dongxing Securities (601198) saw a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, with retail investors showing a net outflow of 14.89% [2]

Core Insights - Perfect World reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.73 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 31%, primarily driven by the growth contribution from the online game "Zhu Xian World" [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 64.8%, an increase of 13.1 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to improved margins in the film and television sector [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 160 million yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 210 million yuan in the same period last year, largely due to the increased contribution from online games [1] Financial Projections - The company anticipates that the upcoming game "Yihuan" will launch in the first half of 2026, contributing to revenue growth [1] - The recent broadcasting policy changes are expected to drive a recovery in the long-form drama market, with new projects likely taking 1-2 quarters to reflect in financial results [1] - Forecasted net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 780 million yuan, 1.571 billion yuan, and 1.607 billion yuan, respectively, adjusted from previous estimates based on game progress and assumptions regarding revenue, gross margin, and expense rates [1] Valuation and Rating - The company maintains a target price of 16.20 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2026, sustaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights the potential for an upward revision in the prosperity expectations of the phosphorus industry chain, driven by the rapid growth in energy storage demand [1] Group 1: Energy Storage Demand and Phosphorus Market - The development of the energy storage industry is significantly increasing the demand for phosphorus resources, making it a crucial component in the energy transition [1] - In the first half of 2025, global energy storage battery shipments exceeded 260 GWh, with projections suggesting a total of over 500 GWh for the year, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 60% [1] - Phosphate iron lithium batteries account for about 95% of energy storage batteries, leading to an estimated demand for around 1.2 million tons of phosphate iron lithium in 2025 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about the phosphorus market primarily stem from fears of oversupply following a peak in 2021, but the current supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight [2] - The pricing power on the supply side is strengthening, which is expected to maintain a tight balance in the phosphorus market [2] - The report suggests that the supply of phosphorus will be released in an orderly manner, alleviating fears of a systemic reversal in the supply-demand balance [2] Group 3: Future Outlook for the Phosphorus Industry - The upward revision of the phosphorus industry chain's prosperity expectations is anticipated due to the significant demand from the energy storage sector, which is expected to surpass traditional agricultural demand [3] - If energy storage growth exceeds expectations, the future prosperity curve for phosphorus could see further upward adjustments [3] - The midstream material segment's operating rates are also expected to improve, with recent increases in industry operating rates indicating a potential recovery [3]

Group 1 - Huafeng Chemical (SZ 002064) announced that on November 12, 2025, it will accept investor research from Dongfang Securities and others, with the company’s board secretary and securities affairs specialist participating in the reception and answering investor questions [1] - For the first half of 2025, Huafeng Chemical's revenue composition was 99.44% from industrial operations and 0.56% from logistics services [1] Group 2 - Despite a decline in exports to the US reaching a seven-year low, China's total export volume has reached a historical high, indicating a shift in export dynamics with the emergence of new categories [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, driven by policies and the capital environment, the REITs sector outperformed stocks and bonds, with the consumption and affordable rental housing sectors leading the market. Since the third quarter, REITs have weakened and deviated from stocks and bonds. Despite positive signals from policies, the market reaction has been lagging, and the current correction may offer a layout window for long - term funds [5][8]. - Against the backdrop of a long - term decline in the bond market interest rate center and the continuation of the asset shortage logic, public REITs are expected to meet a large amount of low - interest substitution demand. Their characteristics such as certain cash flows from underlying assets, stable high dividends, and strong bond attributes make them attractive to institutions with stable liability ends like wealth management and insurance [5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Secondary Market Performance - In October, the public REITs market continued to decline, but the decline was narrower than in September. The CSI REITs (closing) index fell 1.74% in October, while the CSI Convertible Bond index fell 0.11%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.91%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 remained flat compared to September, and the ChinaBond Composite Index (total value) wealth index rose 0.64% [9]. - In terms of volatility, the REITs index performed poorly in October, with greater volatility than the CSI Convertible Bond index, only stronger than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the CSI 1000 [9]. - In October, the new infrastructure and municipal infrastructure sectors led in terms of gains, reaching 5.08% and 3.63% respectively. The ecological and environmental protection infrastructure rose slightly by 1.57%, while other sectors declined. The park infrastructure fell 2.94%, the warehousing and logistics infrastructure fell 1.95%, and the water conservancy infrastructure fell 1.67% [11]. - By project attribute, the property - right type declined by 1.54% in October, far more than the 0.15% decline of the franchise - right type. The top 5 performing REITs in October were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REITs, Southern Wanguo Data Center REITs, CICC First Agricultural REITs, Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REITs, and Fuguo First - created Water Service REITs [12]. 3.2 Transaction Situation - In October, the trading heat was similar to that in September. The average daily turnover rate decreased slightly, while the average daily trading volume increased slightly. The average daily trading volume in October was 505 million yuan, a 1.47% increase from September, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.57%, a 4.51% decrease from September [18]. - By project type, the new infrastructure, water conservancy infrastructure, and affordable rental housing were more popular in the market, with average daily turnover rates of 0.99%, 0.85%, and 0.84% respectively. By project attribute, the property - right type had higher trading heat than the franchise - right type [18]. - In October, the large - scale trading volume declined, with the monthly trading volume at 932 million yuan, down from 1.309 billion yuan in the previous period. The discount rate for large - scale transactions was - 0.79% in October, compared to - 0.30% in the previous period [18]. 3.3 REITs Valuation - For franchise - right REITs, since their future cash flow structure is different and the value at maturity is 0, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation are more appropriate valuation indicators. For property - right REITs, P/NAV, P/FFO, cash distribution rate, and the REITs valuation yield provided by ChinaBond valuation can all be used as valuation indicators [21]. - Among the asset categories of franchise - right REITs, transportation infrastructure and ecological and environmental protection facilities have lower valuations, with P/FFO of 10.51 and 10.79 respectively, and dividend yields of 9.5% and 7.3%. Municipal infrastructure and water conservancy infrastructure have relatively higher valuations, with P/FFO reaching 31.71 and 20.04 respectively, and dividend yields of only 6.2% and 6.3% [22]. - Among the asset categories of property - right REITs, park infrastructure and warehousing and logistics infrastructure have lower valuations, with P/NAV of 1.20 and 1.21 respectively, and dividend yields of 4.8% and 4.0%. Affordable rental housing and consumption infrastructure have relatively higher valuations, with P/NAV reaching 1.55 and 1.45 respectively, and dividend yields of only 2.9% and 4.2% [22]. 3.4 Primary Market Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the number of listed public REITs products in China reached 76, with a total market value of 22.0577 billion yuan, an increase of one product compared to the end of September but a decrease of 403 million yuan in total market value [26]. - Currently, there are 21 REITs funds waiting to be listed, including 12 initial offerings and 9 expansion offerings. CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REITs has been established, and Huaxia Anbo Warehousing REITs has reached the pricing stage. One product was issued in October, but none were listed [26].

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to significantly alter the iron ore supply landscape and enhance the pricing power of Chinese companies in the iron ore market, potentially reducing production costs for steel companies and increasing their profitability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Project Launch and Supply Impact - The Simandou project has commenced production, with the first batch of iron ore being exported, which may disrupt the monopoly of the four major iron ore suppliers [1][3]. - Simandou is noted for having the largest and highest-quality undeveloped iron ore reserves globally, with an average grade exceeding 65% and an annual capacity of 120 million tons, positioning it as a potential fifth major mine [1][2]. Group 2: Chinese Companies' Influence - Chinese enterprises hold significant equity stakes in the Simandou project, with China Baowu holding 7.99% and potentially increasing its stake to 43.35%, while Chinalco holds 35.25% [2]. - The shift towards a pricing and settlement system based on the Chinese yuan is gaining traction, with major global miners beginning to adopt this model for trade with China [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The iron ore supply is expected to remain in surplus, with production growth rates projected at approximately 1%, 5%, and 3.6% from 2025 to 2027, potentially leading to downward pressure on iron ore prices [3]. - The combination of low capital expenditure and stable profitability is anticipated to enhance the dividend capacity of steel companies, reinforcing the mid-term investment value of the steel sector [3]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks in the steel sector include Nanjing Steel (600282.SH), CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ), and Shandong Steel (600022.SH), which are expected to benefit from optimized product structures and improved profitability [4].

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (09618) and raises revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1,331.2 billion, 1,409.4 billion, and 1,485.6 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 27.1 billion, 43.8 billion, and 52.5 billion yuan for the same period [1][2] Group 1 - The company expects JD Retail's revenue for Q3 2025 to reach 248.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, driven by increased traffic from the peak season of food delivery, although partially offset by the base effect of national subsidies [2] - JD Retail's Q3 operating profit is projected to be 13.67 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin of 5.5%, benefiting from improved traffic growth and cost structure optimization due to synergies with food delivery [2] - The overall outlook for JD Retail remains positive, with expectations of sustained growth driven by synergies from food delivery optimization [2] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its target market value to 554.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a target share price of 190.96 HKD, based on a 9XPE valuation for retail and new businesses in 2026 [1]