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2026年01月主动权益基金配置月观点:周期热度持续,关注化工主题基金-20260108
Orient Securities· 2026-01-08 04:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In December 2025, the growth style dominated, with the China Securities Value Index rising 1.05% and the China Securities Growth Index rising 4.08%. The mid - cap style was significantly superior, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rising 2.28%, 6.17%, and 3.56% respectively. The cyclical sector maintained trading activity, while the trading heat of the technology and manufacturing sectors cooled slightly, and the consumer and financial real - estate sectors showed some trading heat [5][8][9]. - In December 2025, the Wande equity - biased fund index rose 3.06%. Funds focusing on commercial aerospace and military themes such as Yongying High - end Equipment Selection A and Qianhai Kaiyuan Greater Ocean recorded large increases. From the monthly win - rate perspective, high - win - rate active equity funds had obvious growth attributes, and Huaxia Zhaoxin Hongrui A maintained a 100% monthly win - rate in the past year and half - year [5][15][16]. - In January 2026, the mid - cap blue - chip market is expected to rise. Short - term focus can be on the mid - cap blue - chips in the cyclical sector, especially the chemical sector. Recommended funds include China Europe Chemical Industry A, Galaxy Value Growth A, etc. [5][20][22]. - China Europe Chemical Industry A has significant product positioning advantages, can provide active excess returns in the chemical sector, and its investment ideas are closely related to the comparison of sub - industry prosperity in the chemical industry [5][24]. - In 2026, the low - volatility fund portfolio has 18 funds, and the new - star fund portfolio has 16 products, including 3 technology - themed, 3 cyclical - themed, 3 manufacturing - themed, 5 pharmaceutical - themed, 1 consumer - themed, and 1 financial - themed products [5][30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Style Change Tracking: Mid - cap Rise, Growth Strength - In December 2025, in terms of style indices, the growth style dominated, and the mid - cap style was significantly superior. The cyclical sector maintained trading activity, while the technology and manufacturing sectors' trading heat cooled slightly, and the consumer and financial real - estate sectors showed some trading heat [5][8][9]. 2. Multi - perspective Fund Tracking: Continued Heat in Commercial Aerospace - From the market hot - spot fund perspective, in December 2025, the Wande equity - biased fund index rose 3.06%. Funds focusing on commercial aerospace and military themes recorded large increases. Some funds focusing on the technology innovation field also performed well due to increased related holdings [15]. - From the monthly win - rate perspective, high - win - rate active equity funds had obvious growth attributes, and Huaxia Zhaoxin Hongrui A maintained a 100% monthly win - rate in the past year and half - year [16]. 3. January 2026 Allocation Suggestion: Mid - cap Blue - chips, Focus on Chemicals 3.1 Mid - cap Blue - chips, Cyclical Sector is King - The mid - cap blue - chip market is expected to rise. Short - term focus can be on the mid - cap blue - chips in the cyclical sector, especially the chemical sector. Recommended funds include China Europe Chemical Industry A, Galaxy Value Growth A, etc. [20][22]. 3.2 Focus on China Europe Chemical Industry A - It has significant product positioning advantages, can provide active excess returns in the chemical sector, and its investment ideas are closely related to the comparison of sub - industry prosperity in the chemical industry [24]. - The fund manager's investment framework is to build an industrial map, select potential high - prosperity sub - industries based on supply - demand patterns and industry prosperity, and then choose undervalued and high - performance - elastic targets [25]. - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from overseas interest - rate cuts and domestic economic stabilization in the next 1 - 2 years. The supply inflection point has gradually emerged, and overseas chemical enterprises are withdrawing, which will promote the domestic fine - chemical industry [27][28]. - In the chemical sector, two types of opportunities are favored: cyclical opportunities in sub - industries with improved supply - demand patterns, and growth opportunities in fine - chemical products with high import dependence and upstream materials driven by downstream technological breakthroughs. The cyclical inflection point may be in the second half of 2026, and it's time to gradually allocate bottom - oriented pro - cyclical varieties [29]. 4. Fund Portfolio Tracking 4.1 Bottom - position Portfolio - Low - volatility Funds - Low - volatility funds can be used as the bottom - position of asset allocation portfolios. In January 2026, 18 low - volatility funds were selected, with stable excess returns, low - risk, and low - volatility characteristics [30]. 4.2 Satellite Portfolio - New - star Funds - In January 2026, the new - star fund portfolio included 16 products, covering technology, cyclical, manufacturing, pharmaceutical, consumer, and financial themes [32].
东方证券:英伟达推出推理上下文内存存储平台 AI存储需求持续扩张
智通财经网· 2026-01-07 07:38
Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA has launched a context memory storage platform at CES 2026, aimed at creating a new memory layer optimized for AI inference, bridging GPU memory and traditional storage [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's New Platform - The context memory storage platform is a POD-level AI-native storage infrastructure designed to support long-term AI operations by optimizing data management and access [2]. - The platform includes hardware and software components such as BlueField-4 for data management, Spectrum-X Ethernet for high-performance networking, and various software tools to enhance system efficiency [2]. Group 2: Shift in AI Inference Bottlenecks - The bottleneck in AI inference is shifting from computation to context storage, necessitating a restructured AI storage architecture to handle increased context data from complex tasks [3]. - There is an anticipated significant growth in demand for storage chips as AI evolves from simple chatbots to intelligent collaborative agents requiring extensive context capacity [3]. Group 3: Domestic Storage Industry Opportunities - The ongoing shortage of storage capacity presents a historic opportunity for domestic storage manufacturers, especially as international competitors may face limitations in expanding production [4]. - Companies like Changxin Technology and Yangtze Memory Technologies are making strides in DRAM and NAND technologies, respectively, which could lead to substantial production increases following their IPOs [4]. Group 4: Related Companies - Key semiconductor equipment companies include Zhongwei Company, Jingzhida, and Beifang Huachuang, while notable packaging and testing firms are Deep Technology and Huicheng Shares [5][6]. - Companies involved in AI storage solutions and benefiting from storage technology iterations include Zhaoyi Innovation and Jiangbolong [6].
东方证券:英伟达(NVDA.US)推出推理上下文内存存储平台 AI存储需求持续扩张
智通财经网· 2026-01-07 07:37
Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA has introduced a context memory storage platform at CES 2026, aimed at creating a new memory layer optimized for AI inference, bridging GPU memory and traditional storage [1][2]. Group 1: NVIDIA's New Platform - The context memory storage platform is a POD-level AI-native storage infrastructure designed to support long-term AI operations by optimizing data access and management [2]. - The platform includes hardware and software components such as BlueField-4 for data management, Spectrum-X Ethernet for high-performance networking, and various software tools to enhance system efficiency [2]. Group 2: Shift in AI Inference Bottlenecks - The bottleneck in AI inference is shifting from computation to context storage, necessitating a restructured AI storage architecture to handle increased context data from complex tasks [3]. - There is an expectation that the demand for storage chips will grow significantly as AI evolves from simple chatbots to more complex collaborative entities requiring extensive context capacity [3]. Group 3: Domestic Storage Industry Opportunities - The ongoing supply-demand imbalance in storage, coupled with limited expansion from overseas storage giants, presents a historic opportunity for domestic storage manufacturers to increase their market share [4]. - Companies like Changxin Technology and Yangtze Memory Technologies are making significant advancements in DRAM and NAND technologies, respectively, which could lead to substantial production capacity increases post-IPO [4]. Group 4: Related Companies - Key domestic semiconductor equipment companies include Zhongwei Company, Jingzhida, and Beifang Huachuang, among others [5]. - Companies involved in packaging and testing include Deep Technology and Huicheng Shares [6]. - Firms focusing on AI storage solutions and benefiting from storage technology iterations include Zhaoyi Innovation and Lianyun Technology [6].
A股开盘速递 | 创业板指涨0.36% 存储芯片等涨幅居前
智通财经网· 2026-01-07 02:59
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring market rally has started early, and the bull market pattern remains intact, with 2026 expected to be a significant year due to multiple positive factors [1] - Macro policy cycles indicate that 2026 will be the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with various departments intensifying the introduction of supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment for the market [1] - Institutional funds, particularly from stock ETFs, have shown early entry into the market, with additional inflows expected from insurance funds and foreign capital due to currency appreciation, which may strengthen the spring market trend [1] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to have depth, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing continuous upward movement, indicating a robust spring theme with high elasticity in thematic opportunities [2] - Key themes to focus on include industrial themes (commercial aerospace, robotics, nuclear fusion), funding themes (high dividend recovery and core asset recovery), and policy themes (service consumption, Hainan) [2] - The investment focus is on AI computing power chains and cyclical opportunities, which are expected to have high institutional attention, although their weight in the spring market may be relatively low [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, after a significant rebound, the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 4100-point mark, and the upward momentum is expected to slow down, with potential for significant fluctuations [3] - Future industry focus remains critical, but caution is advised regarding the risk of significant adjustments following substantial speculation in individual stocks, with attention to high-low switches within sectors [3]
海外札记:委内瑞拉事件对美国“例外溢价”或短多长空
Orient Securities· 2026-01-06 06:43
Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - The "American exceptionalism" narrative has reversed, impacting major asset performance throughout the past year[7] - The trend of "exceptionalism" is driven by weakening internal narratives and external challenges, with significant doubts about the U.S.'s ability to maintain global order[10] - Economic and market momentum is overly reliant on AI narratives, which are now facing increasing skepticism, leading to a decline in confidence[11] Group 2: Impact of Venezuela Events - The Venezuela situation may provide short-term support for the "exceptionalism premium," potentially enhancing market perceptions of U.S. power projection[14] - Optimistic scenarios suggest that U.S. control over Venezuela could temporarily boost risk appetite for U.S. assets, but long-term benefits are limited[14] - Risks include the possibility of the U.S. becoming entrenched in a prolonged conflict in Venezuela, which could shift the impact from short-term gains to long-term burdens[14] Group 3: Employment Data and Future Projections - Key observation points include upcoming U.S. employment data, particularly the December non-farm payrolls, which could influence market sentiment[15] - If employment data exceeds expectations, it may create a temporary "exceptionalism recovery" window, favoring U.S. assets[15] - However, if employment continues to weaken, the U.S. dollar is likely to revert to a downward trend, with a mid-term outlook of continued dollar weakness and benefits for non-U.S. markets[21]
“春季躁动”启动?沪指涨超1%再创十年新高,“行情旗手”强势回归,华林证券涨停,证券ETF龙头(560090)持续冲高大涨3%!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 06:38
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing a nearly 10-year high, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market and a potential for continued growth in the securities sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 6, the A-share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1%, marking a new high not seen since July 2015, and aiming for a 13-day winning streak [1][2]. - The securities ETF (560090) saw a significant increase of over 3%, with trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Major securities firms such as Huayin Securities and Huatai Securities experienced substantial gains, with some stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Outlook for 2026 - The securities sector is expected to see a "Davis Double" effect in 2026, with a projected overall profit growth of 12%, although there will be increased differentiation among individual firms [3][4]. - Policy support is anticipated to catalyze growth, with a focus on normalizing IPO issuances and expanding product offerings, which could enhance market liquidity [3][4]. - The trading environment is expected to provide a safety net, with improved institutional holdings and valuation levels, suggesting a favorable outlook for the securities industry [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The securities ETF (560090) is highlighted as an efficient investment tool for gaining exposure to the securities sector, tracking the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index [4]. - The market is characterized by high trading activity and supportive policies, creating multiple catalysts for the securities sector [4].
东方证券:AI有望加速融入硬件产品 关注AI端侧的升级与创新突破
智通财经网· 2026-01-06 02:32
Group 1 - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) will focus on the acceleration of edge AI in traditional consumer electronics and innovative hardware, showcasing AI's ongoing implementation in industrial, robotics, and smart driving scenarios [1][2] - Edge AI is expected to deeply integrate into various hardware products and industry scenarios by 2026, with significant advancements in traditional consumer electronics such as computers, displays, and home appliances [3] - Major companies like AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm are anticipated to showcase AI-enhanced processors at CES 2026, with Intel introducing its first product based on the 18A process technology [3] Group 2 - AI innovation hardware, including AI glasses and headphones, is expected to achieve breakthroughs in user interaction experiences, with various manufacturers set to present new products at CES 2026 [4] - Companies like Thunderbird Innovation and Yingmu Technology will showcase AI glasses, while other firms will introduce AI recording headphones and all-sensing wearable devices [4] - The event will also feature the world's first belt-type wearable device, VITALBELT, from a Japanese company, along with new drone products [4] Group 3 - In traditional industrial settings, companies like Siemens and Caterpillar will present innovations in AI, digital twins, and automation technologies, highlighting the large-scale application of AI in industrial and mechanical scenarios [5] - Robotics will be represented by companies like Yuzhu, which will demonstrate humanoid robots, and other firms showcasing their latest technologies and products [5] - In the smart driving sector, companies such as Aptiv and Bosch will present intelligent edge solutions that enable real-time perception, decision-making, and execution [5] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on the upgrade and innovative breakthroughs in edge AI, with suggested companies including chip manufacturers like Amlogic and AI component manufacturers like Huanxu Electronics [6] - Terminal product manufacturers and brand companies such as Lenovo, Xiaomi, and BYD Electronics are also highlighted as potential investment targets [6] - Core component manufacturers for edge AI, including Sunny Optical Technology and OmniVision Technologies, are recommended for investment consideration [6]
中科江南接待26家机构调研,包括淡水泉、东方证券、华泰证券、中金公司等
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-01-05 10:47
2026年1月5日,中科江南披露接待调研公告,公司于1月4日接待淡水泉、东方证券、华泰证券、中金公 司、华创证券、国泰海通等26家机构调研。 调研情况显示,近期中国人民银行出台《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施 建设的行动方案》,其明确的"账户体系+币串+智能合约"数字化方案大幅提升了数字人民币在广域政 府资金使用场景的应用空间,为财政、行政、社保、医保等政府性资金管理领域的资金流转、使用和监 管指明发展方向。以财政资金为代表的政府性资金在公用事业、医保社保等闭环领域具备低成本、高效 能运用前景,中科江南自2022年起与多家银行合作开展智能合约技术预研和场景测试,率先验证财政资 金全流程闭环管理模式,已在江苏、山东、河北等地财政场景成功试点落地。 中科江南在分布式账本和区块链领域拥有成熟技术储备与实践经验,其打造的"电子凭证库"可保证智能 合约规则在财政、行政事业单位与银行间精准落地,解决单据电子化及信息流、资金流、凭证流四流合 一问题,叠加数字人民币智能合约能力能实现全流程可追溯和穿透式监管,提升财政资金管理效率和安 全性。例如在惠农补贴场景中,结合伞列钱包体系与电子凭证库优势解决传统 ...
东方证券:维持吉利汽车(00175)买入评级 目标价23.02港元
智通财经网· 2026-01-05 09:32
Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto is leveraging a "dual fuel" strategy to mitigate the impact of declining new energy subsidies and is accelerating its overseas expansion, targeting an export volume of 1 million units by 2027 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Geely Auto achieved a sales target of 3 million units, with a goal of 3.45 million units by 2026 [2] - In December, Geely's total sales reached 236,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with new energy vehicle sales at 154,300 units, up 38.7% [2] - The company expects to sell 3.02 million units in 2025, a 39.0% year-on-year increase, and aims for 3.45 million units in 2026, representing a 14.1% growth [2] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The "dual fuel" strategy is expected to counteract the effects of subsidy reductions in 2026, with plans to sell 2.22 million new energy vehicles, a 31.5% increase [3] - Geely's exports in December reached 40,300 units, a 49.0% year-on-year increase, with total annual exports at 420,100 units, up 1.3% [3] - The company is expanding into 13 new international markets, including the UK, Italy, and Brazil, with significant progress in local production facilities [3] Group 3: Brand Development - The premium brands Zeekr and Lynk & Co showed strong sales in December, with Zeekr selling 30,300 units (up 11.3%) and Lynk & Co selling 33,800 units (up 29.4%) [4] - The average transaction price for Zeekr 9X exceeded 530,000 yuan, making it a leader in the large SUV segment, while Lynk & Co 900 has delivered over 50,000 units in six months [4] - Following the privatization of Zeekr, the integration is expected to enhance strategic synergy and scale effects, supporting brand elevation and profitability [4] Group 4: Financial Projections - The forecasted net profit for Geely Auto is 17.04 billion yuan in 2025, 20.60 billion yuan in 2026, and 24.32 billion yuan in 2027 [5] - The target price is set at 20.79 yuan per share, equivalent to 23.02 HKD, maintaining a buy rating [5]
东方证券:维持吉利汽车买入评级 目标价23.02港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 09:28
Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile is leveraging a "dual-fuel" strategy to mitigate the impact of declining new energy subsidies and is accelerating its overseas expansion, targeting an export volume of 1 million units by 2027 [1][2]. Sales Performance - In December, Geely's total sales reached 236,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales at 154,300 units, up 38.7% [1]. - For 2025, Geely's total sales are projected to be 3,024,600 units, reflecting a 39.0% year-on-year growth, achieving its annual sales target [1]. - The company aims for sales of 3,450,000 units in 2026, representing a 14.1% increase, supported by a sustainable subsidy policy and an expanding product matrix [1]. Dual-Fuel Strategy and International Expansion - Geely's brand sales in December reached 172,800 units, a 10.2% increase, with NEV sales at 1,687,800 units for 2025, marking a 90.0% year-on-year growth [2]. - The company plans to sell 2,220,000 NEVs in 2026, a 31.5% increase, to counteract the effects of subsidy reductions [2]. - Geely's exports in December totaled 40,300 units, a 49.0% increase, with total annual exports at 420,100 units, up 1.3% [2]. - The company is expanding into 13 new markets, including the UK, Italy, and Brazil, with significant progress in its factories in Egypt and Indonesia [2]. High-End Brand Development - In December, sales for the Zeekr and Lynk & Co brands were 30,300 and 33,800 units, respectively, showing increases of 11.3% and 29.4% [3]. - The Zeekr 9 model has become the best-selling large SUV priced above 500,000 yuan, while the Lynk & Co 900 has sold over 50,000 units within six months of its launch [3]. - The company aims for Lynk & Co sales of 400,000 units in 2026, a 14.1% increase, and Zeekr sales of 300,000 units, a 33.8% increase [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price is set at 20.79 yuan per share, equivalent to 23.02 HKD, maintaining a buy rating [4].