Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 65.7 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.86 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.07 billion yuan, a significant decline of 49.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 38.6% year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The coal business revenue for 2024 was 16.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.2% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 8.4 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [2] - The company’s coal production for 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decline of 6.46% year-on-year, and coal sales were 15.37 million tons, down 13.82% year-on-year [2] Price and Cost Dynamics - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 553 yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [2] - In Q4 2024, the coal price was 1,052 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, with a cost of 538 yuan per ton, up 11.6% year-on-year [2] Chemical Segment Performance - The company produced and sold 370,000 tons of anhydrous ethanol in 2024, contributing 1.8 billion yuan in revenue, with a selling price of 4,999 yuan per ton [3] - The production and sales of coke were 3.55 million tons and 3.52 million tons respectively, with a selling price of 1,961 yuan per ton, down 15.85% year-on-year [3] Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing coal and electricity projects, including the 8 million tons power coal project expected to be completed by the end of 2025, and has secured mining permits for new coal mines [4] - Non-coal business initiatives include the establishment of seven limestone mines, increasing limestone resource capacity to 27.4 million tons per year, and the rapid progress of a 2×660MW supercritical power generation unit [4] Dividend and Profit Forecast - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan per share, accounting for 41.6% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders, with a dividend yield of 5.7% based on the closing price on March 28 [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 63.6 billion yuan, 66.3 billion yuan, and 68.9 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.6 billion yuan, 3.98 billion yuan, and 4.61 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company [12] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from deepening integrated operations and potential growth in dividends [4] - Despite a decline in revenue and profit, the company is focusing on cost control and new profit growth points [4][12] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.43% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year, with a basic earnings per share of 1.84 yuan, a decrease of 26.69% [1][8] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 9.063 billion yuan, down 30.45% year-on-year [1] Coal and Coke Segment Summary - The coal and coke segment faced price declines due to weak downstream demand and increased imports, with average prices for various coal types down by approximately 11.44% to 15.41% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a coal production volume of 20.553 million tons and sales of 15.367 million tons, representing year-on-year changes of -6.46% and -13.82% respectively [2] - The average selling price of coal was 1,100.38 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 547.61 yuan per ton, reflecting year-on-year changes of -5.12% and -3.49% [2] Chemical Segment Summary - The chemical segment continued to be impacted by cost pressures and declining prices, resulting in a gross loss [3] - The company produced 3.5465 million tons of coke, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a selling price of 1,961.04 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15.85% [3] - The methanol production was 407,700 tons, down 22.74%, with sales of 198,400 tons, down 61.75% [3] Future Outlook - The company is advancing new projects, including a 600,000-ton anhydrous ethanol project, which is expected to contribute positively to future revenues [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.020 billion yuan, which represents 41.60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.53, 1.90, and 1.95 yuan, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 8.5, 6.9, and 6.7 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from deepening integrated operations and has potential for both growth and dividends [1][6] - The coal and coke industry has faced price declines due to weak downstream demand and increased imports, impacting the company's performance [4][5] - The company has implemented effective cost control strategies, which have helped maintain its gross margin despite market challenges [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 657.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 48.55 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year [2][10] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 90.63 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 30.45% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 1100.38 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 547.61 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% and 3.49% respectively [4][5] Production and Sales Data - The company produced 2,055.30 million tons of commodity coal and sold 1,536.69 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year changes of -6.46% and -13.82% respectively [4] - The company’s coke production was 3.55 million tons, with a sales volume of 3.52 million tons, both down approximately 6% year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 20.20 billion yuan, which is 41.60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.53, 1.90, and 1.95 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.5, 6.9, and 6.7 [8][10]

Summary of Huabei Mining Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huabei Mining - **Year**: 2024 - **Key Financials**: - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 4.855 billion yuan, a decrease of 22% year-on-year [3] - Total coal production: 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 1.42 million tons year-on-year [3] - Coal sales volume: 15.37 million tons, a decrease of 2.46 million tons year-on-year [3] - Ethanol production: 370,000 tons, sales volume: 360,000 tons [3] Industry Insights - **Coal Market**: - Current main coking coal price: approximately 1,510 yuan/ton, with a net profit of about 210 yuan per ton [7][8] - Power coal profit: around 100 yuan per ton, with stable long-term contract prices due to high electricity demand in Anhui province [9] - **Ethanol Market**: - Ethanol profitability was strong in August and September last year, with a profit of approximately 70 million yuan, but has since stabilized due to falling corn prices [3] - Expected ethanol profit for the year: 300 to 400 million yuan [3][16] Key Strategies and Plans - **Cost Control**: - Plans to reduce costs through automation, restoring production, and releasing low-cost capacity [5] - No new expense items expected this year, with potential reductions [5] - **Production Recovery**: - Happiness Holdings is undergoing comprehensive equipment repairs, with normal production expected to resume in Q3 [6] - Production target for Happiness Holdings: 600,000 to 1 million tons [6] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Total capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be around 6 billion yuan, focusing on projects like the Taohutu power plant [11][19] - Major projects expected to be operational by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [12] Financial Outlook - **Dividends**: - Dividend ratio is expected to decrease due to new projects and resource reserve plans, but future dividend amounts and ratios are not in jeopardy [14] - **Profitability Projections**: - Anticipated that 2025 Q2 will be the most challenging period, but market pressures are easing [8] - LNG market profits are optimistic, with a profit of approximately 1 yuan per cubic meter, totaling 253 million yuan [13] Additional Considerations - **Trade Business**: - The trading business has negatively impacted overall asset ROE, with plans to gradually divest non-essential trading operations [4] - **Future Production Goals**: - New projects expected to add nearly 17 million tons of capacity, with significant releases expected by the end of the year [17][18]

盈利预测与估值 考虑到焦煤价格趋弱，我们下调2025 年盈利41%至33.5 亿元，引入2026年盈利35 亿元，现价对应2025- 26 年P/E 为11x、10x；公司为优质主焦煤龙头，中长期增量空间明确，我们维持跑赢行业评级，考虑估 值轮动至2025 年，我们下调目标价21%至15 元，目标价对应2025-26 年P/E 为12x、11.5x，隐含13%上 行空间。 2024 年业绩低于我们及市场预期 公司公布2024 业绩：营业收入657 亿元，同比-10%，归母净利润48.6 亿元，同比-22%，加权平均ROE 为12%；4Q24 收入91 亿元，归母净利润7.2 亿元，同比-39%，环比-41%，主要系整体产品价格走弱。 点评：1、煤炭业务：产销量：2024 年商品煤产量、销量（不含内销，下同）为2,055/1,537万吨，分别 同比-6%/-14%，主要系安监趋严+信湖煤矿停产；单4Q 实现商品煤产量488 万吨，同比-7%/环比-9%， 销量349 万吨，同比-14%/环比-9%，销量走弱主要系内销动力煤增多。价格层面：2024 年全年主焦煤 长协价逐步下调，全年均价（含内销）为1,075 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has experienced unexpected declines in the first quarter, leading to a year-on-year profit drop for most companies. However, companies with a higher proportion of long-term contracts, benefiting from improved calorific value and increased electricity generation, such as Xinji Energy, are expected to perform relatively well [2][7] - Despite the seasonal decline in coal demand post-heating season and high port inventories, the report suggests that the negative factors affecting coal stocks may gradually diminish, recommending a proactive approach towards the coal sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of March 28, 2025, the average price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal was 722 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.2%. The long-term contract price remained more stable at 690 CNY/ton, down 2.6% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [7][14] - The average price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jing Tang port was 1443 CNY/ton, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 40.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15.4% [15] Production and Sales - In the first two months of 2025, the average monthly coal production in China was 38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. However, production decreased by 10% compared to the previous quarter [7][17] - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal & Energy reported varied production changes, with Shenhua's production down 2.6% year-on-year and Shaanxi's up 9.4% [17] Profitability Forecast - The report anticipates that key coal companies will see an average profit decline of 7% to 17% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% to 16% is expected [7][8] - Xinji Energy is highlighted as a company likely to maintain stable performance due to its long-term contracts and operational efficiencies [2][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a marginal allocation strategy focusing on high-quality leaders with stable profits, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment and Xinji Energy [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][8] Core Views - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in production and sales, with chemical operations contributing to profit growth [3][5] - The coal mining segment is facing challenges with both volume and price declines, but the new Taohutu coal mine is anticipated to provide a new profit growth point by the end of 2025 [5][6] - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio to 35% for the years 2025-2027, with a projected dividend yield of 5.40% for 2024 [5][6] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.49% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.00% year-on-year [5][6] - The coal production for 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 6.46% year-on-year, with sales volume down 13.82% [5][6] - The average price of coal was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 553 yuan, down 6.68% [5][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 1.80 yuan, a decrease of 26.69% year-on-year [5][6] Future Projections - The company’s projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 60.152 billion yuan, 62.960 billion yuan, and 64.518 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 3.381 billion yuan, 4.178 billion yuan, and 4.513 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.26 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.68 yuan, respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) [7] Core Views - The company is expected to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan per share in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.6%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on March 27 [4] - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years (2025-2027), increasing the minimum dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35% [4] - Due to the decline in thermal coal and coking coal prices, the earnings forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 3.4 billion, 4 billion, and 4.4 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.9, 9.4, and 8.5 times [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating income of 65.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw an operating income of 9.089 billion yuan, a decline of 49.21% year-on-year, and a net profit of 716 million yuan, down 38.58% year-on-year [1] Coal Business - The company's coal production in 2024 was 20.55 million tons, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, while coal sales were 15.37 million tons, down 13.8% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, with a cost of 553 yuan per ton, down 6.7% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 548 yuan per ton, down 3.5% year-on-year [2] Coking and Chemical Business - The coking segment reported a loss of 990 million yuan in 2024, an increase in loss of 80 million yuan compared to 2023 [3] - The ethanol segment reduced its loss to 136 million yuan in 2024, down 265 million yuan from 2023, with expectations of turning profitable in 2025 as capacity utilization improves [3] - The civil explosives segment achieved a profit of 359 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 76 million yuan compared to 2023, with significant capacity expansion expected to enhance future profitability [3] Growth Prospects - The company is accelerating the construction of the Tao Hutu mine to ensure completion by the end of 2025 and is also advancing the construction of a significant coal-fired power generation project in Anhui [4] - The chemical industry is focusing on stabilizing ethanol production and advancing various projects to ensure timely completion and production [4] - The company is actively seeking additional wind power resources to maximize the utilization of its renewable energy projects [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 65.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.855 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to increase the minimum dividend payout ratio to 35% for the years 2025-2027, with a proposed dividend of 0.75 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a total payout of 2.020 billion yuan [2]. - The coal production and sales volumes decreased in 2024, with a production of 20.553 million tons, down 6.5% year-on-year, and sales of 15.367 million tons, down 13.8% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 9.066 billion yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 49.2%, and a net profit of 716 million yuan, down 38.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The coal business's gross profit margin improved to 49.8%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in coal prices and sales [3]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a dividend payout ratio of 41.6% for 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on March 27, 2025 [2]. Coal and Chemical Business - The coal chemical business saw a decline in gross profit margin to 19.34%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, with significant drops in production and sales of coke and methanol [4]. - The company has initiated production of a 600,000-ton ethanol project, which is the largest single-series production facility globally [4]. Future Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.924 billion yuan, 2.476 billion yuan, and 3.384 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71 yuan, 0.92 yuan, and 1.26 yuan [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal volume and price, with a focus on growth potential and the recovery of its net asset value [4][6] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 65.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.86 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year [4][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit from 2025 onwards, with projections of 3.37 billion yuan in 2025, 4.50 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.09 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -30.7%, +33.6%, and +13.1% respectively [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s coal production and sales volume decreased by 6.5% and 13.8% year-on-year, respectively, with Q4 production and sales down 8.7% and 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,100.4 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 552.8 yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross profit per ton of coal was 547.6 yuan, a decline of 3.5% year-on-year [4][5] Product Performance - In 2024, the production and sales of coke and methanol also saw declines of 6% and 22.7% year-on-year, respectively [5] - The average selling price of coke decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, while the price of its main raw material, washed coal, fell by 14.4% [5] Growth Potential - The company is focusing on the growth of coal mining and coal chemical projects, with significant projects underway, including the construction of a coal mine with an annual capacity of 8 million tons [4][6] - The company plans to increase its minimum dividend payout ratio from 30% to 35%, with a current dividend payout ratio of 41.6% [4][6]