中信建投（601066）发布研报称，2026年面临铜价中枢上移与人民币升值的双重考验，该行认为其对家 电龙头盈利的冲击整体可控。过往经验看，顺价是化解成本压力最为有效的核心手段。国补落地下需求 有支撑，元旦后提价存共识。凭借强大的终端定价权、成熟的成本传导机制以及完善的汇率风险管理体 系，龙头企业有能力穿越周期波动，维持盈利模型的稳健。当前板块估值处于历史低位，兼具稳健增长 与高分红特性，配置价值凸显。 中信建投主要观点如下： 铜再度迎来涨价潮，家电影响如何看? 2025年下半年起铜价中枢再度快速抬升。对比过往几轮大宗周期，此次原材料上涨幅度仍可控，成本端 呈现"金属抬升、化工和钢材相对缓释"的分化格局。原材料价格波动对毛利率产生滞后性冲击，但并非 决定板块估值与股价的核心变量。复盘历史，成本压力传导至毛利端存在2-3个季度的时滞，资本市场 层面，估值更多受宏观流动性与终端需求驱动，在需求复苏与货币宽松背景下，即便面临成本上行，家 电龙头股仍能实现良好的收益表现。 面对铜价上涨，家电龙头如何降低影响家电龙头可通过"向上游要利润、向内部要效率、向终端要溢 价"三种传导方法对冲成本影响。大宗品定价权高度集中于海外 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，考虑2026年碳酸锂供给增量市场一致预期落在30-50万吨， 预计碳酸锂价格可能在15-30万元/吨之间达到均衡，具体高度则需要看碳酸锂供给增量具体多少、中间 环节的累库效应，以及需求是否进一步超预期。股价层面，底部估值抬升之后，市场可能会对需求产生 怀疑导致板块阶段性纠结，但最终因产业链量价齐升股价同步跟随，价格弹性大的环节表现最优。该行 建议首选紧缺瓶颈环节，配置核心龙头。 中信建投主要观点如下： 2020年光伏周期复盘：多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，更多的情况是量价齐升，瓶颈环节几乎拿 走行业大部分利润 本轮由储能驱动的锂电周期和上一轮光伏周期高度相似，截至目前几乎有着近乎一致的剧情复刻。"平 价上网"之后，下游电站的超额利润推动了需求的非线性增长，且电站环节由"补贴驱动的工程项目"变 身"经济性驱动的电力资产"，大量国央企及社会资本涌入，同步伴随着国内利率下行周期启动，量价齐 升，对紧缺环节造成挤兑。 产能刚性的光伏硅料和玻璃几乎拿走产业链大部分利润(本文以2021-2022年的硅料为例)，价格上不言 顶。在这过程中市场多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，持续 ...

当前星链卫星已搭载星载相控阵天线以及激光链路终端，全球化供应链已实现相关芯片、模组、终端的 规模化量产与在轨运行。国内方面，细分领域的头部企业在相控阵T/R芯片、光通信芯片、星载光纤放 大器、星敏感器、星载高速通信终端等领域积极布局，验证星间与星地高速光通信技术落地，为商业航 天产业发展提供高速、稳定、安全的信息传输能力。 商业航天产业的兴起为卫星通信市场带来增量需求 可回收火箭技术使发射成本大幅降低，SpaceX在2025年完成167次发射，Starlink在轨卫星超9300颗，覆 盖150多个国家且付费用户突破900万，新推出50美元/月低价套餐旨在加速渗透。卫星通信应用场景从 传统广电、海事通信扩展至偏远地区互联网、物联网、应急救灾和国防领域，预计2035年全球市场规模 达830亿美元。国内方面，多家主体向ITU申报超20万颗卫星计划，产业配套逐步完善，发射能力有望 提升至年均万颗，推动市场持续增长。 卫星通信产业链涵盖上游芯片、中游模组和下游终端环节 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，卫星通信技术正经历产业变革，通过轨道高度降低、相控阵 天线应用和激光介质应用等技术创新，显著提升了传输速度、降低 ...

【中信建投：当前宏观环境类似2020 - 2021年，赛道投资或占优】1月26日，中信建投指出，数据表明 工业生产韧性持续，出口增长较快。但消费、投资等内需指标疲软，"生产强于需求、外需好于内需"贯 穿上年全年。货币政策维持宽松，央行行长潘功胜称今年降准降息仍有空间。 当前宏观环境与2020 - 2021年赛道投资高峰期相似，银行间利率降至2020年以来几乎最低水平。宏观需求弱、流动性宽松的组 合下，具备结构性景气的赛道投资占优。 科技领域，AI半导体/新能源是景气核心。新兴热点催化不 断，AI应用获政策支持、商业化加速，太空光伏产能规划超预期、技术突破打开万亿市场，创新药BD 交易等推动价值兑现。 资源品方面，有色金属行业2025年报业绩预告向好率最高。关注后续景气向能 化和机械板块扩散。货币宽松下，资金将从金融系统转向实体，有色、化工、机械和消费板块有望依次 受益。 2025年12月以来，南华金属指数涨12.5%，能化和工业品指数涨幅约7%，在当前市场更具投资 性价比。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights a resilient industrial production alongside rapid export growth, while domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment remain weak, indicating a year-long trend of "strong production versus weak demand, and better external demand than internal demand" [1] Economic Environment - The monetary policy remains accommodative, with the central bank governor indicating room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions this year [1] - The current macroeconomic environment shares similarities with the investment peak period of 2020-2021, as interbank rates have dropped to nearly the lowest levels since 2020 [1] Investment Opportunities - The combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity favors structural investment opportunities in thriving sectors [1] - Key sectors include AI semiconductors and renewable energy, which are currently at the core of economic vitality [1] - Emerging hotspots are continuously catalyzing growth, with strong policy support for AI applications and accelerated commercialization [1] Sector Performance - The global capacity planning for space photovoltaics exceeds expectations, and technological breakthroughs are opening up trillion-dollar markets [1] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, shows a high forecast for 2025 earnings, indicating a positive outlook [1] - As monetary easing continues, funds are expected to shift from the financial system to the real economy, benefiting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, and consumer goods [1] Market Trends - Since December, the South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5%, while the energy and industrial product indices have only increased by around 7%, suggesting better investment value in the current market [1]

豆粕：中性 1．美国寒潮天气引发冬小麦产量受损与加工企业停工担忧、南美天气给出阶段性风险溢价，隔夜CBOT大豆反弹。预报显示未来一周巴西大部降雨形势良 好，有利于大豆生长，但需关注持续性降水可能对收割工作造成延误；阿根廷大部产区仍然仅有零星降水，关注干旱发展的可能性； 2．美盘反弹从成本端给粕价带来边际利好，同时对未来国内大豆供应可能阶段性偏紧的担忧以及储备投放节奏的不确定性亦提供一定支撑。但另一方面， 当前巴西远月船期对盘压榨利润相对可观，暗示若南美到港压力兑现，仍可能通过粕价下跌挤出榨利。 观点总结：短期关注南美降水预期变化给美盘带来的扰动，05合约预计日内运行区间2700-2850元/吨。 鸡蛋：中性偏空 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．本周国内期现价格双双突破2300，但在基本面无明显单边偏紧的情况下，考虑备货刚需下的时间性阶段错配和地区间调动带来的空间错配，所引发的价 格上行压力。不过相应的，价格见顶明显，随着中储粮拍卖热度不减，节前备货刚需仍存，玉米主力短暂上行整理后将重回横盘区间。 2．本周玉米到港密集，广东预计周内将有53.4万吨到港量；23日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that while industrial production remains resilient and exports are growing rapidly, domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment are still weak, highlighting a characteristic of "strong production versus weak demand" throughout the previous year [1] Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment shows similarities to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, with interbank interest rates at their lowest levels since 2020 [1] - The combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity is expected to favor structural investment opportunities in certain sectors [1] Sector Insights - In the technology sector, AI semiconductors and new energy are identified as the core areas of current prosperity, with strong policy support for AI applications and accelerated commercialization [1] - The global capacity planning for space photovoltaics has exceeded expectations, and technological breakthroughs are opening up trillion-dollar markets [1] - The innovative drug sector is seeing value realization driven by business development transactions, clinical breakthroughs, and new drug approvals [1] Resource Sector - The non-ferrous metals industry has the highest forecasted performance improvement rate for 2025, with attention on the subsequent transmission of prosperity to the energy and machinery sectors [1] - As monetary easing continues, funds are expected to gradually shift from the financial system to the real economy, benefiting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, machinery, and consumer goods [1] - Since December 2025, the South China Metal Index has risen by 12.5%, while the energy and industrial product indices have only increased by around 7%, suggesting better investment value in the current market [1]

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai rose over 2% to 102,830 yuan, while London copper increased to approximately 13,134 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic environment is neutral, with the US threatening to cut dollar supplies to Iraq, leading to a decline in the dollar to 97, which boosted copper prices [4][17] - Global copper inventories increased to 1.015 million tons, with domestic copper stocks rising by about 14,400 tons to 330,000 tons [4][17] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply expectations, but high inventory levels may limit price increases [4][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel and stainless steel market is experiencing short-term high-level fluctuations, influenced by tight policy expectations from Indonesia [18][19] - The supply of nickel from the Philippines is hindered by weather conditions, while Indonesian wet method nickel is relatively abundant [18][19] - Short-term nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to remain high until Indonesian policies are relaxed [18][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing weak fluctuations in spot prices, with futures prices rebounding slightly after a decline [20][21] - The supply side is affected by high-cost producers adjusting production, while the production capacity of alumina remains high at 96.55 million tons [20][21] - The expected operational range for alumina futures is between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a bearish outlook on price rebounds [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, supported by improved macroeconomic sentiment and easing trade tensions between the US and Europe [23][24] - The overall supply remains limited despite some production plans being maintained, while demand from the black metal sector is weak [23][24] - The operational range for zinc futures is expected to be between 24,000 and 25,000 yuan per ton [23][24] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices are experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances persisting due to limited domestic ore and insufficient imports [24][25] - The operational range for lead futures is expected to be between 16,800 and 17,800 yuan per ton [24][25] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals are steadily rising, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] - The operational ranges for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are set at 1,120-1,170 yuan per gram, 25,500-27,500 yuan per kilogram, 690-750 yuan per gram, and 510-550 yuan per gram, respectively [27][28]

人民财讯1月26日电，中信建投（601066）研报称，谷歌、快手等头部模型重点解决了角色一致性与物 理逻辑难题，快手可灵月活破千万并实现订阅收入增长，标志着多模态工具从娱乐走向生产力。应用 侧，AI漫剧接棒短剧成为新增长极，字节跳动等平台通过高额激励推动内容精品化，AI加速IP影视化进 程，有望催生新的市场机遇，重塑广告与游戏资产生产逻辑。展望未来，原生多模态与世界模型技术共 同演进，有望重塑营销、影视、游戏等下游产业格局。 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the advancements in multimodal technology by leading companies like Google and Kuaishou, addressing challenges in character consistency and physical logic, marking a shift from entertainment to productivity [1][2] - AI-generated content, particularly AI comic dramas, is emerging as a new growth area, with platforms like ByteDance incentivizing high-quality content creation, potentially reshaping advertising and gaming asset production [1][7] Group 1: Company Developments - Google has established strong barriers in long-context understanding and native audio-video integration with models like Veo, Gemini, and Nanobanana [2] - Kuaishou's Keling model integrates multiple creative tasks into a unified engine, achieving a victory ratio of 247% in image reference tasks and 230% in instruction transformation tasks [3] - Alibaba's Tongyi Wanshang 2.6 model introduces commercial role-playing capabilities, ensuring character consistency across different shots and supporting high-definition video generation [4] - Zhizhu's GLM-Image model, developed in collaboration with Huawei, is the first to complete full-process training on a domestic computing platform, addressing industry challenges like Chinese character rendering [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - Kuaishou's Keling AI has seen a significant increase in active users, surpassing 12 million, with a 350% growth in paid users, indicating a shift of multimodal AI tools from entertainment to essential productivity tools in industries like film and advertising [6] - The AI comic drama sector is rapidly expanding, with ByteDance implementing aggressive incentive policies to promote high-quality content, reflecting a potential market size growth for short dramas and comic dramas [7][8] - The evolution of multimodal technology is expected to reshape business logic across various industries, including search and marketing, entertainment, and gaming, with advancements in generative AI leading to new commercial opportunities [8]