华泰证券电子行业2026年度展望：持续看好AI链 关注存储周期影响 华泰证券发布电子行业2026年度展望指出，2025年电子行业在AI链引领创新以及下游终端需求整体持 续复苏的带动下持续上行，同时2025年下半年开始存储板块也在大幅供需差下开启涨价周期，展望2026 年，建议关注几个方向：1）继续看好存储周期，涨价在AI数据中心的拉动下或具备一定持续性，国内 存储芯片及配套环节均有望受益；2）看好全球头部CSP厂ASIC加速落地，带动PCB等算力产业链向高 端化持续演进；3）国内代工厂以及存储IDM扩产有望在2026年开始加速，同时技术节点向先进制程以 及3D堆叠等方向迈进，上游国产设备商同步受益；4）消费电子端侧AI产品创新或加速换机周期带动产 业链受益。 本文转载自"智通财经"，智通财经编辑：刘家殷。 中信建投认为，四季度以来，全球宏观经济与地缘政治不确定性加剧，凸显了战略矿产资源在安全保障 与价格弹性方面的投资价值。基于当前供需格局、政策导向及产业趋势，铜、铝、黄金三大品种的中长 期配置逻辑清晰铜受益于矿端供应紧张与绿色经济需求拉动；铝受限于国内产能天花板，并受益于轻量 化及绿电需求；黄金则具备对冲风险 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信建投指出，四季度以来，全球宏观经济与地缘政治不确定性加剧，凸显了战略矿产资源在安全保障 与价格弹性方面的投资价值。基于当前供需格局、政策导向及产业趋势，铜、铝、黄金三大品种的中长 期配置逻辑清晰。铜受益于矿端供应紧张与绿色经济需求拉动；铝受限于国内产能天花板，并受益于轻 量化及绿电需求；黄金则具备对冲风险及通胀的独特属性。投资应围绕三大主线：一是供给刚性，关注 受资源约束和产能政策限制显著的品种；二是绿色需求，把握能源转型在新能源汽车、光伏风电等领域 带来的结构性增长；三是金融属性，利用流动性预期变化配置避险资产。 ...

近期，AI产业链催化不断，包括谷歌新模型性能大幅提升及TPU的较强能力、DeepSeek V3.2发布、亚 马逊发布Trainium3、摩尔线程上市市场展现出的高参与热情等，同时更多公司包括英伟达、阿里、 AMD等否认AI泡沫的观点，均展现了AI的良好发展前景。持续推荐AI算力板块。 工信部量子信息标准化技术委员会筹建方案公示。量子科技作为国家重点布局的未来产业，承载着成为 新经济增长点的重任，建议重点关注稀释制冷机、低温同轴线缆等环节。 人民财讯12月8日电，中信建投（601066）指出，DeepSeek V3.2发布，强化Agent能力。豆包与中兴通 讯合作推出首款工程样机，支持豆包手机助手，探索手机AI Agent。AI大模型仍在持续迭代，大局未 定，AI应用也在持续发展，不论是手机还是眼镜，都可能引发阶段性行情，值得持续关注。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，四季度以来，全球宏观经济与地缘政治不确定性加剧，凸显 了战略矿产资源在安全保障与价格弹性方面的投资价值。基于当前供需格局、政策导向及产业趋势， 铜、铝、黄金三大品种的中长期配置逻辑清晰。铜受益于矿端供应紧张与绿色经济需求拉动；铝受限于 国内产能天花板，并受益于轻量化及绿电需求；黄金则具备对冲风险及通胀的独特属性。投资应围绕三 大主线：一是供给刚性，关注受资源约束和产能政策限制显著的品种；二是绿色需求，把握能源转型在 新能源汽车、光伏风电等领域带来的结构性增长；三是金融属性，利用流动性预期变化配置避险资产。 中信建投主要观点如下： 铜：三重利好共振，开启"超级周期" 供给端紧缺加剧。全球铜矿供应扰动频发：智利Codelco将2026年长单溢价大幅提升，印证资源稀缺 性；自由港格拉斯伯格矿、刚果(金)卡莫阿铜矿事故进一步收紧供应。国内冶炼产能主动收缩，中国铜 原料联合谈判小组(CSPT)达成2026年减产10%以上共识，加工费(TCRC)一度接近零或负值，倒逼行业 出清。库存方面，国际铜库存以及SHFE铜库存下降，国内库存加速去化，供需缺口持续扩大 需求端结构性增长。绿色经 ...

中信建投研报认为，储能需求爆发的大背景下，制造业环节的盈利能力仍处于历史低位的情况是不合理 和不可持续的。当前终端IRR水平较高，预计可接受10-15分/Wh的利润让渡。我们预计2026年制造业环 节价格将上涨10-15分/Wh，税后对终端电站的成本上涨12分/Wh，这对于下游需求的影响是可控的，但 中游制造业利润将大幅增厚，看好储能需求驱动下，制造业上下游量价齐升、共振受益。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the expectation of a robust economic start in 2026 driven by proactive macro policies and structural reforms as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to improve, nearing the "7" mark against the USD [1][19] Focused Commentary - Wu Qing highlights the importance of enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on public fund reforms and aligning investor interests [3] - The article discusses the need for a binding mechanism for public funds to ensure investor profit and loss are core to assessments, promoting the development of equity funds and index investments [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities predicts a more proactive policy direction in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, with a focus on consumption expansion, technological innovation, and real estate risk mitigation [5] - Huaxia Fund suggests that the "spring rally" may start earlier due to key meetings, improved macro liquidity, and easing of funding pressures, recommending a focus on AI, domestic demand recovery, and resource sectors [6] -招商证券 notes that December's market will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meetings and domestic conferences, with a preference for large-cap stocks and blue-chip dividends [7] Industry Research - Galaxy Securities indicates that the power industry will see opportunities for capacity upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on stable profitability in thermal power and growth in nuclear power [12] - Harvest Fund expresses optimism for the energy storage sector, highlighting its transition to a growth phase driven by policy and technological advancements [13] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities sees significant growth potential in the low-altitude economy, predicting a market size exceeding one trillion by 2030 [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities anticipates a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with a forecast of 6.82 against the USD by the end of 2026, driven by strong export growth and seasonal currency settlement peaks [19] - Bosera Fund notes a cautious sentiment in the bond market, with a need for clearer signals of policy easing to boost demand [20] - Guotai Fund believes that the bond market may see a recovery opportunity following recent volatility, suggesting it could be a good time for long-term positioning [21] Asset Allocation - CICC recommends maintaining a "barbell" strategy in asset allocation, combining dividend stocks with technology investments, while adjusting weights based on market conditions [23]

南方财经12月7日电，中信建投证券研报认为，本周茅台批价回落短期压制板块表现，关注12月政策面 消费存在潜在催化，当前食饮估值已处于历史相对低位，白酒等优质资产底部逻辑清晰，大众品聚焦三 条主线具备细分领域结构性机会，继续推荐白酒及具备细分逻辑的大众品，预计大众品细分板块继续表 现优于白酒，白酒需求磨底后静待春节行情。白酒方面，行业动销持续磨底。大众品方面，把握餐饮链 供应链与商超定制边际改善、健康化功能化高景气增长、成本周期优化等三大主线。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Moutai's wholesale prices has temporarily suppressed the performance of the sector, but potential policy-driven consumption catalysts in December are noteworthy. Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at relatively low historical levels, indicating clear bottom logic for quality assets like liquor. The focus on three main lines in the consumer goods sector presents structural opportunities, with recommendations to continue investing in liquor and consumer goods with specific logic. It is expected that the consumer goods sector will outperform liquor, with liquor demand stabilizing as the market awaits the Spring Festival [1][14]. Group 1: Market Performance - This week, the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3902.81 points, a weekly change of 0.37%. The food and beverage sector experienced a weekly decline of 1.90%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industry classifications [2][15]. - Among the various sub-sectors of food and beverage, the performance from highest to lowest was as follows: pre-processed foods (+1.51%), beer (+1.20%), soft drinks (+0.43%), meat products (-0.11%), health products (-0.17%), seasoning and fermented products (-0.32%), snacks (-0.73%), dairy products (-1.74%), liquor (-2.59%), and other alcoholic beverages (-3.06%) [2][15]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Clear signals of industry bottoming are evident, presenting opportunities for undervalued investments. Liquor demand is in a bottoming phase, with sales still under pressure but gradually recovering compared to Q3. Liquor companies are expected to continue the trend of performance clearing, actively alleviating market burdens. The liquor sector's valuation is at historical lows, providing strong bottom configuration value, while potential consumption policy catalysts are also noteworthy [3][16]. - For consumer goods, focus on three structural opportunities: 1) Improvement in the restaurant supply chain and supermarket customization, with a reduction in price wars and lighter channel inventory burdens as the traditional peak season approaches. 2) The health and functional product segment is experiencing high growth, with leading oat brands benefiting from the "oat+" health trend. 3) The price cycle is nearing a turning point, with expected improvements in upstream profitability as raw milk prices stabilize [3][16]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the liquor sector, the recent global distributor conference for Fenjiu emphasized the certainty of future growth, with expectations for the domestic economy to stabilize and recover, supported by policy and consumption revival. This is anticipated to lead to a dual leap in cultural value and market scale for liquor as a cyclical industry [4][17]. - The average milk price in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg in the last week of November, down 0.1 yuan/kg, indicating a continued bottoming of raw milk prices. The first batch of deep-processed products from Mengniu has passed testing and is expected to contribute to performance improvements in the dairy sector as production capacity increases [20].

本周全球大类资产表现一览： 核心观点 2024年开始，日债走向公众视野，频繁引发市场关注。因为日债利率影响日本套息交易，进而影响美国资产。 尤其在美股脆弱之际，日债波动放大担忧，加剧美国资产高波动。2024年三季度和2025年二季度，市场已经历了两轮日本套息交易逆转叙事引发的美 股"崩溃"。 结束了20年低利率的日债，近年波动加大，最终是否会引发一轮全球范围内的资产震荡？ 日债是境外美元流动性非常重要的观测指标，日本在全球中的定位，决定了日债本身不可能成为全球资产波动的决定因素，但全球美元流动性转向一定会 在日债上得到反馈。与其关注日债，我们更需要跟踪的是美国经济和政策周期。 下周需要关注： 国内中央政治局会议，出口、社融、通胀数据；海外关注美联储议息会议。 摘要 本周A股和港股在震荡中收涨，上证重回3900。宽松预期修正影响下，空头情绪较强，债市延续回调。 本周风险资产波动加大，总体收涨。日本央行鹰派发言，引发全球风险资产调整；随后美国披露就业和通胀数据，美联储降息预期走高，股票和大宗走 强。 一、中国股市：A股、H股震荡反复，总体收涨。 中国AH股回顾： A股：本周市场反复震荡，周五沪指重返3900点，创 ...

美国银行的股价变动，估值驱动远大于业绩驱动，即估值对股价的直接弹性远大于基本面弹性，估值决定着涨不涨和绝对收益。更进一步，在估值的表象 下，美国市场对银行基本面的定价极其充分，哪些银行提估值、哪些杀估值、哪些涨得多、哪些跌得多，跟各家银行基本面趋势紧密相关，基本面决定着 涨多少和相对收益。 核心观点： 此外，在不同阶段，估值和基本面的影响有显著差异，投资者既需要在各个阶段都紧密跟踪基本面，亦需准确区分不同的股价周期，把握基本面之外的估 值、市值等阶段性重要因素。 报告全文如下： 我们把美国银行板块的股价上涨分解为估值因素和基本面因素，并按两大因素的不同组合划分了四个典型阶段。四个阶段股价表现从高到低：估值和基本 面双升阶段>估值提升、基本面未改善阶段>基本面改善、估值未提升阶段>估值和基本面双杀阶段。 估值决定涨不涨、基本面决定涨多少：美国银行板块和个股的股价表现受估值变动影响更大，但美国市场对基本面的定价极其充分，在四个不同的历史周 期中，都在板块内部决定着个股之间的相对表现。此外，低估值是个股超额收益的重要来源，市值因素极端阶段有重大影响。 阶段1：板块估值和基本面双杀：危机时刻，稳健是关键：类似次贷危机 ...