Group 1 - The coal stocks in the Hong Kong market are mostly rising, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] - China Shenhua (01088.HK) increased by 4.13%, reaching HKD 42.38 [1] - Yanzhou Coal (01171.HK) rose by 2.79%, trading at HKD 11.43 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) saw a 2.55% increase, priced at HKD 11.28 [1] - China Qinfa (00866.HK) gained 1.56%, with a share price of HKD 3.26 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by increased demand due to cold weather and tightening supply conditions, suggesting a favorable investment outlook for quality coal companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Major coal stocks have seen significant gains, with China Shenhua up 4.13% to HKD 42.38, Yanzhou Coal up 2.79% to HKD 11.43, China Coal up 2.55% to HKD 11.28, and China Qinfa up 1.56% to HKD 3.26 [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - A cold wave has led to lower temperatures in central and eastern regions, contributing to increased coal demand [1] - The average daily coal output from the four ports in the Bohai Rim region reached 1.682 million tons, an increase of 142,000 tons (9.19%) from the previous week, although it represents a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [1] - As of January 23, port inventories stood at 26.28 million tons, down 906,000 tons (3.33%) week-on-week, but up 3.48% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The tightening supply-demand balance in the coal market is expected to persist over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies maintaining high barriers to entry, strong cash flow, and attractive dividends [1] - The recent price stabilization in coal is anticipated to reshape sector valuations, making coal investments appealing, especially after recent market corrections [1]

型及広 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 版费 行业 相关研究 近券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动,有望支撑 委员 娱炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资后了 ● 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 23 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500动力煤现货价收报 514、599、685元/吨，环比-8、-9、-10 元/吨。供给端, 据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.11 万吨，环比上周减少 0.6 万 吨,降幅 0.39%,同比下降 4.12%,产地生产正常,降雪对运输的影响已消除。需求 端,寒潮来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China Shenhua's stock has shown a slight increase, with a current price of 40.82 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 811.03 billion CNY, indicating a stable performance in the market [1] - As of January 26, the stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 0.79%, a 5-day increase of 0.29%, a 20-day increase of 1.72%, and a 60-day decrease of 2.95% [1] - The company primarily engages in coal and electricity production and sales, with coal accounting for 75.23% of its revenue, followed by electricity at 29.35% [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for China Shenhua reached 209,200, an increase of 29.69% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 23.09% to 79,468 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, China Shenhua reported a revenue of 213.15 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.05 billion CNY, down 15.24% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 480.47 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 159.94 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]

Core Insights - The National Energy Group has established a solid energy supply foundation through supply assurance, price stability, green transformation, and innovative reforms, achieving significant milestones in coal production, wind power capacity, and market capitalization [1][2]. Energy Supply and Production - The company has stabilized its self-produced coal volume at 600 million tons and has achieved a wind power capacity exceeding 72 million kilowatts, contributing to a market capitalization surpassing 1 trillion yuan [1]. - The group aims to enhance effective investment and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries while developing emerging industries on a large scale by 2026 [1]. Renewable Energy Development - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the group has focused on expanding scale and optimizing layout, resulting in a threefold increase in renewable energy installed capacity compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2]. - The company has developed large-scale wind and solar bases and launched the world's largest open offshore photovoltaic project, showcasing innovative integration of green energy and agriculture [2]. Energy Storage and Hydrogen Production - The group has made significant advancements in energy storage, with 195 new storage projects operational by the end of 2025, accounting for approximately 6% of the national new energy storage capacity [2]. - The hydrogen energy sector has been established with a production capacity of 6,000 tons per year, representing 5% of the national total, with various applications leading industry development [2]. Coal Power Upgrades - The company is focusing on upgrading coal power as a key transformation strategy, with four projects selected as national pilot projects for next-generation coal power [3]. - These upgrades are expected to reduce carbon emissions by 10% for certain coal power units by 2024 [3]. Energy Security and Supply Assurance - The National Energy Group has built a resilient supply assurance system, prioritizing supply stability and price control while enhancing emergency supply capabilities [3][4]. - The company has accelerated the release of high-quality coal production capacity, achieving significant operational metrics, including a stable self-produced coal volume and record daily power generation [3][4]. Transportation and Logistics - The group is improving its transportation network, with ongoing projects like the Huanghua Port Phase V and the Dongyue Railway, enhancing coal transportation efficiency [4]. - The company’s coal production and power generation metrics account for significant national shares, with annual coal production representing one-sixth of the national total [4]. Reform and Innovation - The company has implemented comprehensive reforms, completing 161 specific reform tasks to enhance governance and operational efficiency [5][6]. - The restructuring of assets has led to a significant increase in the market value of China Shenhua, with over 200 billion yuan in asset restructuring [6]. Future Outlook - By 2026, the company plans to strengthen its safety and supply responsibilities, enhance investment effectiveness, and promote high-quality development while focusing on carbon asset management and technological innovation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for Pingmei Shenma Group [5][11]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to face a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [18][31]. - The report highlights the impact of AI on reshaping the U.S. coal market, indicating a rebound in demand that could influence global coal trade dynamics [2][3]. - Indonesia's government is tightening regulations on illegal mining, which may affect coal supply and prices globally [2][3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3743.77 points, an increase of 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [78]. - The report notes that U.S. coal consumption is experiencing explosive growth, while exports are expected to slow down, leading to a tighter global coal trade balance [3][35]. - As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 691 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 13 RMB/ton [31][19]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The report indicates a rise in daily consumption and cost support, but high inventory levels may lead to price fluctuations [18][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening due to rising costs impacting profitability for coking enterprises [38][49]. - **Coke**: The market is experiencing a pause in price increases, with a shift in sentiment leading to increased selling pressure from intermediaries [52][76]. Focused Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Shaanxi Coal and Energy, with a focus on those involved in smart mining and international coal markets [14][12]. - The report also highlights companies like Peabody (BTU) and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from international market dynamics [14][3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [3][8]. Summary by Sections Energy Price Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices also saw significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units (+4.04%) and U.S. HH natural gas futures at $5.35 per million British thermal units (+72.18%) [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies that are performing well, such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies involved in smart mining like Keda Control and those in recovery like China Qinfa [3][8]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Coal Market Dynamics - The report notes slight adjustments in coal prices, with Newcastle coal at $111.50 per ton, down $0.05 (-0.04%), while European ARA coal prices increased to $98.50 per ton, up $1.85 (+1.91%) [1][40]. - The overall coal market is expected to benefit from the rising natural gas prices, potentially leading to increased coal consumption in power generation [3].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal mining sector, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices due to a polar cold wave and short covering, with prices rising by 25% to $4.875 per million British thermal units, marking the highest settlement price since December 8 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal consumption to increase as power producers may switch to coal to control fuel costs amid rising natural gas prices [8]. - The report notes that the performance of coal mining companies is expected to improve as annual report disclosures approach, following the principle that "strong performance leads to strong stocks" [3]. Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 23, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.88 per barrel, up $1.75 (+2.73%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $61.07 per barrel, up $1.63 (+2.74%) [1]. - Natural gas prices have also seen significant increases, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.81 per million British thermal units, up $0.46 (+4.04%) [1]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report specifically recommends focusing on companies such as Keda Control Technology, which is advancing in smart mining, and China Qinfa, which is experiencing a turnaround [3]. - Additional companies to watch include Peabody (BTU), Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and others that may see growth in the future [3]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of weather on natural gas production, particularly in the Marcellus shale region, which may face operational challenges due to snow [8]. - It also notes that the U.S. natural gas inventory surplus is rapidly decreasing, with expectations that it will fall below the five-year average by the end of March [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The current phase is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [3][13] - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating the planning and construction of high-quality production capacity to meet medium- to long-term energy coal demand [14] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, with a favorable investment outlook due to the tightening supply-demand balance and the potential for price increases [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - As of January 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 686 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [4][31] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1780 RMB/ton, up 30 RMB/ton week-on-week [33] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines is 89.6%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.33%, up 0.9 percentage points [5][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 33.70 thousand tons/day (+8.18%) and in coastal provinces by 23.90 thousand tons/day (+10.97%) [5][50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.44% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [16] - The thermal coal segment saw a slight decline of 0.29%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.84% [18] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [14] - Consider companies with significant price elasticity and cost advantages in the coal chemical sector for potential alpha opportunities [5][13]