Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a slight increase in prices and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, suggesting a potential balance between supply and demand [6][23] - The report highlights the importance of positioning in high-dividend coal companies and those undergoing turnaround in coking coal and coke sectors [6][23] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of September 5, 2025, the CITIC coal industry index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.81%, resulting in a 0.91 percentage point advantage [2] - The highest weekly stock price increase was seen in Yunmei Energy, with a rise of 4.03% [2] Supply and Demand Data - Average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises were 6.67 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% [2] - The average daily coal production was 6.64 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) was 25.85 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 9.1% year-on-year [2] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was 676 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.75% [3] - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port was 1550 CNY/ton, down 4.9% week-on-week [4] - The report notes fluctuations in prices across various coal types, with some showing declines while others have remained stable [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to rebound in September, with long-term contract prices for different grades of coal being 674, 613, and 551 CNY/ton respectively [6][23] - Recommended companies for investment include major thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, as well as coking coal companies like Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6][23]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) has seen a significant increase in new stock financing, reaching HKD 134.5 billion in the first eight months of the year, a nearly sixfold year-on-year growth, with A+H listings accounting for 70% of the total fundraising in the first half of the year [1][2] - A total of 11 A-share companies have completed A+H listings this year, raising over HKD 90 billion, which represents about 70% of the total IPO fundraising in the Hong Kong market [2] - More than 51 A-share companies are currently in the process of preparing for their listings in Hong Kong, including notable firms like SANY Heavy Industry and Sungrow Power Supply [2][3] Group 2 - Innovative listing methods are emerging in the current A+H expansion wave, such as share swap mergers and privatization, which provide companies with new financing channels and resource optimization opportunities [3] - Zhejiang Hu-Hang-Yong plans to achieve A+H listing through a share swap merger with Zhenyang Development, while New Hope Group intends to privatize New Hope Energy through its wholly-owned subsidiary and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] Group 3 - The enthusiasm for A+H listings is driven by multiple factors, including support from mainland authorities for quality companies to list in Hong Kong and the ongoing optimization of the approval process by HKEX [4] - The trend of A+H listings is expected to improve the industry structure of the Hong Kong market, attracting more capital and updating the composition of A+H listed companies [5] Group 4 - As of September 5, 2023, among 161 A+H stocks, only 5 have H-share prices exceeding A-share prices, with CATL showing the largest discount at 17.43% [5][6] - The premium of A-shares over H-shares has significantly decreased, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and a revaluation of H-shares due to the low interest rate environment in mainland China [6]

Group 1 - China Shenhua plans to acquire equity stakes in 13 companies from the State Energy Group through issuing A-shares and cash payments, covering coal, pit coal power, and coal chemical industries, including several large coal mine assets [1] - In its 2024 Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) report, China Shenhua reported an environmental investment of 3.768 billion yuan and a comprehensive energy consumption of 2.87 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan of output value [1] - The company aims to focus on green low-carbon development in the power sector, supported by low-carbon technology research and a combination of clean energy substitution, energy-saving and emission reduction technologies, and carbon asset management to promote its carbon peak action strategy [1] Group 2 - During an earnings call, the company’s executive director and general manager stated that the overall goal for carbon peak and carbon neutrality is to reach peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive for carbon neutrality before 2060, with mid-term and short-term targets set accordingly [3] - The acquisition of coal, pit coal power, and coal chemical assets will significantly enhance the company's asset scale, which will have a substantial impact on energy consumption and carbon emissions [3] - After the acquisition is completed, the company will adjust and optimize its management targets based on actual business conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (601088.SH) aims to enhance its coal chemical industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period through upgrades and mergers, focusing on both quantity and quality improvements to strengthen its integrated development advantage [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The energy transition in China is accelerating under the "dual carbon" goals, leading to a decrease in coal power's share as clean energy increases [1] - Coal chemical products are expected to become a significant growth point in coal consumption, effectively replacing petroleum chemicals and alleviating resource shortages [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, China Shenhua reported a revenue of 138.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.64 billion yuan, down 12% [1] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a profit drop of 53% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - Profit contributions from various segments include: coal segment 21.76 billion yuan, power segment 5.09 billion yuan, railway segment 7.04 billion yuan, port segment 0.11 billion yuan, and coal chemical segment 0.0076 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Coal Chemical Segment Performance - The coal chemical segment, while contributing minimally to overall profits, showed significant growth from 1 million yuan in the previous year to 0.76 billion yuan this year [2] - The growth in the coal chemical segment is attributed to reduced maintenance costs, improved production efficiency, and cost-saving measures implemented by the company [2]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a performance bottoming out, with improvements expected in the future. In Q2 2025, national raw coal production remained high, but commodity coal consumption decreased by 11.8% month-on-month during the off-season, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance and high social inventory, which pressured coal prices downwards. Except for the coking coal sector, which benefited from the price dual-track system, the performance of coal companies generally faced pressure [2][11] - The supply side is tightening due to rainfall and production checks, with July's production decreasing by 40 million tons month-on-month and 9 million tons year-on-year. The four major producing regions all saw a reduction in output, with Xinjiang experiencing the largest month-on-month decrease [3][30] - Demand improved significantly in July, entering the peak season, with national commodity coal consumption reaching 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%. The upcoming non-electric consumption peak season in September and October is expected to support coal demand [4][67] - Inventory levels across various segments have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, which may provide support for coal prices [5] - Coal prices are expected to rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season. The price of thermal coal has rebounded close to 100 yuan/ton, and the downside potential is limited [5] Summary by Sections Q2 2025 Performance Summary - The coal industry is at a performance bottom, with improvements anticipated. Q2 2025 saw a high national raw coal output but a significant drop in commodity coal consumption during the off-season, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and falling prices [2][11] Supply - July's coal production decreased significantly due to rainfall and production checks, with a month-on-month reduction of 40 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 9 million tons. The supply tightening expectations remain [3][30] Demand - July marked the peak demand season, with a notable improvement in coal consumption. National commodity coal consumption reached 450 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%. The upcoming non-electric consumption peak season is expected to sustain coal demand [4][67] Inventory - Inventory levels across various segments have decreased, with port inventories lower than the same period last year, potentially supporting coal prices [5] Price - Coal prices are expected to rebound due to supply contraction expectations and the upcoming non-electric demand peak season. The price of thermal coal has rebounded close to 100 yuan/ton, with limited downside potential [5]

Group 1 - The coal mining sector increased by 0.66% on September 5, with Shanxi Coking Coal leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51, up 1.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56, up 3.89% [1] - Key stocks in the coal mining sector showed significant price increases, with Shanxi Coking Coal rising by 4.44% to a closing price of 7.05 [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector saw a net inflow of 347 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 456 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and China Shenhua experienced varying levels of fund inflow and outflow, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the coal sector reflected active market participation, with Shanxi Coking Coal achieving a turnover of 494 million yuan [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry moving forward [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is experiencing a reversal rather than a rebound, with expectations for profitability to improve as coal prices have likely reached their lowest point [12][10]. - The report highlights that coal prices have begun to stabilize and recover, particularly in the context of both thermal and coking coal [15][19]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of September 1, 2025, the spot price for Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 695 CNY/ton, down 73 CNY/ton from the beginning of the year but up 77 CNY/ton from the lowest price in June [19]. - The average spot price for Q5500 thermal coal in Q2 2025 was 642 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 211 CNY/ton (24.7%) and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 91 CNY/ton (12.5%) [19]. - Coking coal prices have also shown resilience, with the price for low-sulfur coking coal reported at 1480 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from the start of the year [23]. Performance Overview - The report notes that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 16.37% from April 1 to September 1, 2025, while the coal index only increased by 8.99% [2][29]. - Among 26 sampled coal companies, 19 saw their stock prices rise, while 7 experienced declines during the same period [2]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, active funds held 0.43% of their portfolios in the coal sector, a slight decrease from Q1, while passive funds held 0.71%, also down from the previous quarter [3][34]. - The combined holding of both active and passive funds in the coal sector is 0.55%, reflecting a decline of 0.06 percentage points from Q1 2025 [3]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that coal companies' profits have been under pressure due to declining coal prices, with a total profit decline of 5.4% to 113.7% among the sampled companies [3][12]. - Notably, companies like Electric Power Energy and Kailuan achieved profit growth despite the overall downward trend in the sector [3]. Operational Insights - Coal companies are focusing on increasing production, improving quality, and reducing costs to mitigate the impact of falling prices [4][12]. - The total coal production for the sampled companies in H1 2025 was 586 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with strong earnings elasticity such as Lu'an Energy, Yanzhou Coal, and Jinkong Coal, while also highlighting key state-owned enterprises like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy for potential investment [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending specific companies based on their performance and market conditions [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal market experienced a decline in prices during the first half of 2025, with an average price of 675.7 CNY/ton for thermal coal, a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [3][14]. - A rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased demand and supply constraints, potentially returning to levels seen in Q3 2024 [4][29]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in production from both domestic and international sources, with a year-on-year decrease in coal production from major exporting countries [18][24]. Market Review - In H1 2025, thermal coal prices continued to decline, with Q2 prices hitting a low of 631.6 CNY/ton, down 25.6% year-on-year [3][14]. - The average price of coking coal also saw a significant drop, with the main coking coal price at 1377.67 CNY/ton, down 38.79% year-on-year [3][14]. Industry Outlook - The report forecasts a price recovery driven by supply reductions and seasonal demand increases, with expectations for prices to return to Q3 2024 levels [4][29]. - Supply-side constraints are expected to persist, with an estimated annual reduction of 230 million tons due to stricter production regulations [24][25]. - Non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is projected to grow, providing additional support for coal prices [29][30]. Fund Holdings - In Q2 2025, most listed companies in the coal sector saw an increase in fund holdings compared to Q1, with notable increases for companies like Huabei Mining and Xinjie Energy [5][34]. Half-Year Report Summary - The coal sector's total revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 18.8% year-on-year, with the thermal coal sub-sector experiencing a 16.6% decline [36][37]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 32% year-on-year, with the coking coal sub-sector facing the steepest decline of 60.1% [38].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the pressure on coal sector companies' profits due to declining coal prices in the first half of 2025, listed companies are generally maintaining or increasing their dividends, indicating confidence in the long-term stability of the industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Shenhua (601088) and Shanxi Coking Coal (000983) have implemented their first interim dividends, while Shougang Resources has raised its interim dividend payout ratio to 76% [1] - The performance of leading thermal coal and coking coal companies reflects their confidence in the industry's long-term development [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The expectation of high coal prices remaining stable in the second half of the year suggests that investment in the sector will continue to focus on dividend logic [1] - Leading thermal coal companies with high long-term contracts are expected to maintain good sales realization and stable profits, with a continued trend of strong cash flow [1] - The rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may further enhance the allocation value of high dividend yield companies [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China's Coal Segment - **Current Status**: The coal segment is in structural decline due to the energy transition, with thermal coal facing slight oversupply while coking coal is broadly balanced for the year [1][4] Core Insights - **Thermal Coal**: - Demand is expected to decline by approximately 1% YoY to around 4.17 billion tons (bnt) in 2025, driven by a 2.5% drop in power-sector coal consumption and a 6% decrease in construction-related consumption [3][19] - Total thermal coal supply is projected to increase by about 1% YoY to 4.3 billion tons in 2025, despite a 12% YoY drop in imports [3][18] - The average price of thermal coal has corrected by 22% YoY, with domestic prices hitting lows of RMB 677 per ton [18] - **Coking Coal**: - Supply is expected to remain flat at approximately 592 million tons (mnt) in 2025, with demand also flat at 591 mnt, supported by stable pig iron production [4][22] - The market is expected to face rising supply pressure in the coming years, despite current balance [4] Policy Context - **Regulatory Environment**: The current industry backdrop is different from the 2015 supply-side reform, with fewer loss-makers and greater consolidation. The share of output from large, advanced mines has increased, making broad cuts unlikely [2][16] - **Safety and Environmental Checks**: Supply discipline is more likely to come from tighter safety and environmental checks rather than blanket quotas [2][16] Stock Implications - **Investment Ratings**: - Shenhuo Coal & Power initiated at Overweight (OW) due to strong aluminum contributions [6][26] - Shenhua (H) remains OW, while Yankuang H is moved to Equal Weight (EW) and Yancoal Australia to Underweight (UW) [6][10] - China Coal (A) is rated UW, reflecting a weaker outlook [6][10] Risks and Opportunities - **Key Risks**: Implementation of anti-involution measures could lead to deeper production cuts, driving prices up for both thermal and coking coal [5][28] - **Other Risks**: Stricter inspections could lead to material supply reductions, while stronger-than-expected thermal power demand could increase coal demand [31] Additional Insights - **Market Preferences**: Coal is ranked lower among commodities, with preferences for copper, aluminum, and steel over coal [24] - **Dividend Yields**: Coal producers typically offer high dividend payouts, around 5%, which may attract yield-focused investors despite the structural downturn [27] Conclusion - The coal industry in China is navigating a complex landscape marked by declining demand, regulatory scrutiny, and shifting market dynamics. While coking coal remains relatively balanced, thermal coal faces significant challenges. Investment strategies should consider the potential for regulatory impacts and the overall commodity landscape.