Group 1 - Major airlines including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced a special policy for ticket refunds and changes for flights to and from Japan, applicable for tickets purchased or changed before January 26, 2026, 12:00 PM, for travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [1][2] - The policy aims to assist travelers in light of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' warnings regarding travel to Japan, allowing for free changes and cancellations for affected flights [2][3] - As of January 26, 2026, the cancellation rate for flights from mainland China to Japan reached 47.2%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points compared to December 2025, with 49 routes already canceling all flights in February 2026 [3]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 1.1% on January 26, with CITIC Hainan Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 58.13, up 0.05% with a trading volume of 50,900 shares and a turnover of 297 million yuan - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.81, down 1.19% with a trading volume of 2,620,300 shares and a turnover of 1.536 billion yuan - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) closed at 20.44, down 3.90% with a trading volume of 251,500 shares and a turnover of 518 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 999.1 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 624.0 million yuan [3][4] - The capital flow for specific stocks shows: - Shenzhen Airport (000089) had a net outflow of 6.15 million yuan from retail investors - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) had a significant net outflow of 60.43 million yuan from institutional investors [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and saw a 6.64% increase over the past five days, with a net subscription of 190 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and had a 5.15% increase, but saw a decrease of 10 million shares in its latest subscription [7]

Group 1 - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, announced free ticket changes and cancellations for flights to and from Japan scheduled between March 29, 2026, and October 24, 2026, for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026 [1][9] - The announcement indicates a contraction in the Japanese travel market, with significant losses of Chinese tourists expected during major holidays in 2026, including Qingming, Labor Day, summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1] - Data shows that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan reached 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024, but there was a notable decline in November and December 2025, with visitor numbers dropping to 560,000 and 330,000 respectively [2][1] Group 2 - Since November 15, 2025, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% in January 2026, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [1] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 routes for February 2026 have had all flights canceled, indicating a severe reduction in flight availability [1]

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Responses - France is organizing a G-7 Finance call to coordinate international aid for Ukraine's energy infrastructure, following severe damage to Ukraine's power grid from Russian attacks, leaving millions without electricity and heating [3] - The European Union is deploying 447 emergency generators to Ukraine, valued at 3.7 million euros, to support critical services [3] - UNESCO has expressed concern over damage to the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra and threats to the Saint Sophia Cathedral, both World Heritage sites, due to ongoing conflicts [4] Currency and Commodity Markets - The South African Rand (ZAR) has appreciated past 16/$ for the first time since June 2022, trading at 16.0475 against the dollar, up approximately 0.4% from the previous close, driven by record-high gold prices above $5,000 an ounce and an improved economic outlook [6] - OPEC+ is likely to maintain its supply pause in March amid signs of a surplus in global oil markets, with oil futures declining 15% this year to around $63 a barrel [7] International Trade and Digital Regulation - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated Canada has no intention of pursuing a free trade deal with China, responding to U.S. tariff threats of 100% on Canadian goods [8] - The EU Commission is initiating proceedings against xAI's Grok chatbot under the Digital Services Act due to concerns over inappropriate content generation [10]

1月26日，国航、东航、南航、山航、川航、厦航等航司陆续发布通知称，1月26日前出票，航班起飞日 期在2026年3月29日（含）至2026年10月24日（含）的日本进出港或经停航班，可免费退改签。 此前的2025年11月，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆郑重提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本。11月15日，国 航、东航、南航、川航、厦航、春秋航空分别发布通知，对日本航线客票特殊处理，符合适用范围的客 票在有效期内可按规则办理退改手续。当时改退措施适用于航班起飞日期在2025年11月15日至2025年12 月31日期间的机票。 今年1月3日，驻日本大使馆再次提醒在日中国公民注意人身安全。 近期，日本部分地区治安环境不靖。福冈县、静冈县、爱知县等多地发生杀人未遂、报复社会案件。 多名旅日中国公民报告遭无端辱骂殴打并受伤。2025年12月31日，东京新宿区发生汽车撞人事件。两名 中国公民被严重撞伤，后被紧急送往医院救治。 获悉上述有关案情后，驻日本大使馆第一时间向受伤中国公民及其家属表示慰问并提供协助，同时向日 本警方交涉，敦促尽快破案，切实保护中国公民合法权益。 出行在外，安全最重要。值此岁末年初、春节将至之际，中国驻日本大使 ...

Group 1 - Multiple airlines, including Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines, announced special handling policies for tickets related to flights to Japan, effective until January 26, 2026 [1][2] - Air China allows for one free change of tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for travel dates between March 29, 2026, and October 24, 2026, with no change fee for the first change [1] - Eastern Airlines permits free changes for flights within three days before or after the original flight, with conditions for subsequent changes [2] Group 2 - The collective announcement extends the free cancellation and change policy for Japan routes through the summer and autumn seasons of 2026 [2] - Reports indicate that over 40% of planned flights from China to Japan in December 2025 were canceled, reflecting a significant reduction in travel demand [4] - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan in December 2025 dropped by 45.3% year-on-year, with a notable decline in shopping and consumption in Japanese department stores [3][4]

记者 ｜ 陈姗姗 编辑 ｜ 钉钉 今天下午，国航、东航、南航陆续发布通知称，1月26日前出票，航班起飞日期在2026年3月29日 （含）至2026年10月24日（含）的日本进出港或经停航班，可免费退改签。 在此之前，免费退改签政策执行到3月28日。 ...

今天下午，国航、东航、南航陆续发布通知称，1月26日前出票，航班起飞日期在2026年3月29日（含） 至2026年10月24日（含）的日本进出港或经停航班，可免费退改签。 （文章来源：第一财经） 在此之前，免费退改签政策执行到3月28日。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Overweight" indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from the previous quarter, ranking 16th among 31 industries [5][6]. - The proportion of holdings in the aviation transportation, ports, cross-border logistics, and highways sectors has increased, with respective shares of 56.8%, 3.4%, 4.6%, and 4.8%, showing significant increases [12]. - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, SF Express, and others, with notable growth rates for China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines at 448% and 244% respectively [20][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Fund Holdings - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from Q3, with a 1 rank increase in the industry ranking [5][6]. - The transportation industry fund holdings accounted for 1.32% of all fund heavy holdings, up by 0.24 percentage points from Q3 [10]. 2. Sector Performance - The market value changes for various sectors within the transportation industry showed significant fluctuations, with aviation transportation increasing by 80% and express delivery decreasing by 39% [12]. - The holdings in the aviation transportation sector have increased significantly, while express delivery and shipping sectors have seen declines [12]. 3. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include: - China Eastern Airlines: 45 billion, up 448% - Southern Airlines: 31 billion, up 244% - SF Express: 11 billion, down 16% [20][23]. - Other notable stocks with over 3 billion in total market value and growth rates exceeding 10% include Spring Airlines and Jiayou International [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of relative performance that exceeds the relevant market indices over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the transportation sector's public fund heavy holding ratio decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.09%, primarily due to significant reductions in logistics and supply chain investments, while the aviation sector saw a slight increase in allocation [2][6]. - The number of heavily held stocks in the transportation sector increased to 60, with a total market value of 21.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% quarter-on-quarter increase [6]. - The transportation sector index outperformed major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index, with a quarterly increase of 3.4% [6]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The transportation sector's allocation is ranked 17th among 32 primary industries, indicating an underweight status compared to the standard allocation ratio of 2.46% [6]. - The allocation ratios for sub-sectors in Q4 2025 are as follows: Aviation (0.50%), Logistics and Supply Chain (0.34%), Rail and Road (0.12%), Maritime (0.08%), and Transportation Infrastructure (0.05%) [6][14]. Heavy Holdings - The top five heavily held stocks in the transportation sector accounted for 57.7% of the total market value, with the top ten accounting for 79.2%, indicating an increase in concentration [7]. - The leading stocks by market value in Q4 2025 were China Eastern Airlines (4.55 billion yuan), Southern Airlines (3.08 billion yuan), and SF Express (2.29 billion yuan) [7][22]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the transportation sector increased to 4.3%, with the aviation sector being the largest segment at 11.61 billion yuan, representing 27.5% of the transportation industry [8][26]. - The top five stocks with the highest foreign ownership ratios included Sichuan Chengyu, Southern Airlines, and Iron Dragon Logistics, with foreign ownership ratios of 15.4%, 14.6%, and 8.1% respectively [8][26].