Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][29]. Core Views - The report anticipates a recovery in coal companies' performance in the second half of 2025, driven by a rebound in coal prices after a bottoming out in the second quarter [3]. - Domestic raw coal production increased by 5.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while coal imports decreased by 11.1% [3][13]. - The average price of thermal coal and coking coal at ports fell significantly in the second quarter of 2025, with thermal coal prices dropping approximately 25.79% year-on-year [3][17]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic raw coal production reached 2.405 billion tons in the first half of 2025, up from 2.266 billion tons in the same period of 2024, with notable increases in Shanxi (10.1%) and Xinjiang (12.4%) [8][9]. - Coal imports totaled 22.2 million tons in the first half of 2025, marking an 11.1% decline compared to the previous year, with negative growth observed since March 2025 [13][18]. - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports was approximately 630 CNY/ton in Q2 2025, down from 850 CNY/ton in Q2 2024, reflecting a significant price drop [3][17]. Company Performance Forecast - Companies expected to exceed performance expectations include China Shenhua (EPS 1.24, YOY -16.62%), Electric Power Investment (EPS 1.36, YOY 3.49%), and Xinji Energy (EPS 0.38, YOY -15.78%) [3][20]. - Companies with performance in line with expectations include Shaanxi Coal (EPS 0.86, YOY -21.1%) and Yanzhou Coal (EPS 0.54, YOY -47.24%) [3][20]. - The only company expected to underperform is Shanxi Black Cat (EPS -0.25, YOY -14.61%) [3][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stable, high-dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [3]. - It also suggests considering undervalued stocks with potential for growth, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Huabei Mining, Electric Power Investment, Yanzhou Coal, and Pingmei Shenma [3]. - Attention is drawn to Xinji Energy as a growth stock benefiting from coal-electricity integration [3].

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed strong performance in sectors such as banking, insurance, and liquor, while the consumer electronics sector underperformed [1][6]. Banking Sector - Everbright Bank had a market capitalization of 254.068 billion with a trading volume of 609 million, closing at 4.30, up by 0.03 (+0.70%) [3]. Insurance Sector - China Ping An and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 1,039.258 billion and 356.818 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 24.93 billion and 6.12 billion. Their stock prices increased by 0.42 (+1.15%) and 0.03 (+0.36%) [3]. Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,805.156 billion, 220.936 billion, and 480.465 billion respectively. Their trading volumes were 59.85 billion, 25.98 billion, and 30.62 billion, with stock price increases of 5.03 (+2.86%), 20.65 (+1.46%), and 1.13 (+0.92%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon had market capitalizations of 234.658 billion, 243.739 billion, and 318.365 billion respectively. Their trading volumes were 26.40 billion, 29.85 billion, and 16.55 billion, with stock price changes of +6.59 (+2.07%), -1.03 (-0.75%), and +0.22 (+0.04%) [3]. Oil Industry - Sinopec and PetroChina had market capitalizations of 271.538 billion and 705.647 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 8.53 billion and 6.48 billion. Their stock prices increased by 0.09 (+1.57%) and remained unchanged [3]. Coal Industry - China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 743.083 billion and 185.562 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 7.78 billion and 9.61 billion, with stock price increases of 0.27 (+0.73%) and 0.17 (+0.90%) [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 1,808.349 billion with a trading volume of 44.82 billion, closing at 329.11, up by 1.09 (+0.33%) [3]. Shipping and Port Sector - No specific data provided for this sector in the document [4]. Power Industry - No specific data provided for this sector in the document [4]. Securities Sector - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 420.014 billion with a trading volume of 18.87 billion, closing at 28.34, up by 0.09 (+0.32%) [4]. Battery Sector - CATL had a market capitalization of 1,236.485 billion with a trading volume of 59.82 billion, closing at 271.20, up by 5.70 (+2.15%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian and Luxshare Precision had market capitalizations of 538.390 billion and 280.871 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 35.27 billion and 53.15 billion, with stock price decreases of -0.39 (-1.42%) and -0.67 (-1.70%) [4]. Home Appliances - Haidilao and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 268.195 billion and 241.985 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 10.06 billion and 8.44 billion, with stock price changes of +0.32 (+0.67%) and -0.02 (-0.08%) [4]. Chemical and Pharmaceutical Sector - Hengrui Medicine had a market capitalization of 251.506 billion with a trading volume of 38.81 billion, closing at 47.71, up by 1.35 (+2.91%) [4]. Logistics Sector - SF Holding had a market capitalization of 241.541 billion with a trading volume of 11.63 billion, closing at 46.04, up by 0.76 (+1.68%) [4]. Non-ferrous Metals - Mindray Medical had a market capitalization of 273.187 billion with a trading volume of 25.08 billion, closing at 225.32, up by 8.14 (+3.75%) [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with most sectors in the green, while the consumer electronics and internet services sectors experienced declines [1][6]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The banking sector, represented by Everbright Bank, had a market capitalization of 255.25 billion with a trading volume of 392 million, showing a slight increase of 1.17% [3]. - In the liquor industry, Kweichow Moutai led with a market cap of 1,797.53 billion and a trading volume of 3.923 billion, increasing by 1.37% [3]. - The semiconductor sector saw Northern Huachuang with a market cap of 233.94 billion and a trading volume of 1.908 billion, rising by 1.76% [3]. - In the oil sector, Sinopec had a market cap of 703.22 billion with a trading volume of 552 million, increasing by 1.22% [3]. - The coal industry was represented by China Shenhua with a market cap of 743.88 billion and a trading volume of 709 million, rising by 0.83% [3]. - In the automotive sector, BYD had a market cap of 1,793.90 billion with a trading volume of 516 million, but saw a decrease of 0.47% [3]. - The battery sector was led by CATL with a market cap of 4,189.77 billion and a trading volume of 1.153 billion, increasing by 0.88% [4]. - The consumer electronics sector, represented by Hon Hai Precision, had a market cap of 540.97 billion with a trading volume of 2.376 billion, decreasing by 0.74% [4]. - In the home appliance sector, Gree Electric had a market cap of 267.47 billion with a trading volume of 446 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.31% [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector was led by Hengrui Medicine with a market cap of 387.15 billion and a trading volume of 2.654 billion, increasing by 2.36% [4]. - The logistics sector, represented by SF Holding, had a market cap of 240.58 billion with a trading volume of 737 million, increasing by 1.04% [4].

Group 1 - The core concept of the new "anti-involution" supply-side reform differs significantly from the 2016 supply-side reform, focusing on regulating low-price competition rather than eliminating backward production capacity [1] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to stabilize the price bottom in the coal industry by reducing disorderly competition, which is expected to lead to a more pragmatic bottom in the current market [1][3] - The report recommends leading companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH), and Jinkong Coal (601001.SH), as they are expected to benefit from the release of performance risks [1] Group 2 - The cement industry serves as a successful case of "anti-involution," where collaborative production cuts have led to a recovery in industry profitability, highlighting the challenges of implementing similar strategies in the coal sector [2] - The coal industry is currently at a fundamental turning point, with over 50% of coal enterprises reporting losses, particularly in coking coal, indicating a need for production cuts to stabilize prices [3] - The supply side has shown a significant decrease in production from April to May, with spontaneous production cuts occurring due to economic pressures, while demand has started to recover, suggesting a potential turning point for electricity consumption growth [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the establishment of the international standard for supercapacitors in energy storage, proposed by China and supported by countries like Germany and Japan, which is expected to promote global standardization in this field [2] - The report discusses the Chinese government's initiatives to boost domestic consumption and optimize policies for replacing old consumer goods, aiming to enhance the internal circulation of the economy [2] - The report notes the historical peak in national electricity load, surpassing 1.5 billion kilowatts, indicating a strong demand for energy during the summer peak season [2] - The report mentions the ongoing efforts to regulate the competition in the new energy vehicle industry, emphasizing the need for rational competition and adherence to payment commitments by major companies [2] Company Insights - The report details the performance of Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd., which is the largest listed coal enterprise in Shaanxi, focusing on its coal mining, washing, transportation, and sales operations [15][16] - The company achieved a revenue of 184.145 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, and a net profit of 22.36 billion yuan, reflecting stable performance despite declining coal prices [16] - The company has a significant coal resource base of 17.931 billion tons, with a mining life of over 70 years, primarily located in the Shaanxi region [17] - The report indicates that the company is implementing a "coal-electricity integration" strategy following its acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power Group, which is expected to enhance profitability and stability [19][21] - The company has maintained a high cash dividend policy, with total cash dividends reaching 13.07 billion yuan in 2024, representing 58.45% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [20][21] Industry Insights - The report analyzes the domestic airline industry, noting a cautious increase in capacity during the low season, with a 1.1% year-on-year rise in domestic flight capacity in June [11] - The report highlights that the overall passenger load factor for listed airlines decreased by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month but increased by approximately 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The international airline capacity saw a year-on-year increase of about 17.4%, but the growth rate has slowed down, indicating a challenging demand environment [12] - The report suggests that the coal market may experience a rebound in prices due to seasonal demand and regulatory measures aimed at curbing low-price competition [20]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for domestic resources has shown positive performance, with a recent increase in value and significant year-to-date growth, indicating a favorable market trend for resource-related stocks [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for domestic resources rose by 0.29% to 3511.13 points, with a trading volume of 35.435 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 1.37%, by 5.59% over the last three months, and by 5.12% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Index for domestic resources are: Zijin Mining (15.56%), China Shenhua (6.62%), China Petroleum (5.46%), China Petrochemical (4.52%), Northern Rare Earth (4.1%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical (3.98%), China National Offshore Oil (3.32%), Luoyang Molybdenum (3.07%), China Aluminum (3.06%), and Shandong Gold (2.99%) [1]. - The index is primarily composed of the materials sector (68.47%) and the energy sector (31.53%) [2]. Group 3: Market Structure - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 78.58% of the index's holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange represents 21.42% [1]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the domestic resources index include Minsheng Jianyin China Securities Domestic Resources C and Minsheng Jianyin China Securities Domestic Resources A [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry [2][69] Core Views - Shaanxi Coal Industry focuses on building a "coal-electricity integration" development model, enhancing operational stability and profitability through strategic acquisitions and investments [3][11][69] - The company has shown resilience in performance despite declining coal prices, with stable revenue and profit growth [27][28][69] - The upcoming summer coal demand and regulatory changes are expected to support a rebound in coal prices, positively impacting the company's performance [12][59] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shaanxi Coal Industry is the only large-scale listed coal enterprise in Shaanxi, primarily engaged in coal mining, washing, transportation, and sales [3][24] - The company is backed by Shaanxi Coal Group, which holds 65.25% of its shares [3][24] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 1841.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, and a net profit of CNY 223.60 billion, up 5.28% [27][28] - In Q1 2025, despite a 0.71% decline in revenue to CNY 401.62 billion, net profit rose by 3.29% to CNY 48.05 billion [28][69] Resource and Production - The company has abundant coal resources, with a total resource volume of 17.931 billion tons and a mining life of over 70 years [4][38] - In 2024, coal production reached a historical high of 170.4846 million tons, a 4.13% increase year-on-year [43][44] Railway Infrastructure - The company has developed a self-operated railway network to support its coal business, enhancing logistics and market reach [5][52] - In 2023, railway transport volume was 167.1896 million tons, a 35.21% increase, while in 2024, it slightly decreased to 166.2825 million tons [5][52] Electricity Business - The acquisition of Shaanxi Coal Power in 2024 has enabled the company to implement a "coal-electricity integration" model, enhancing profitability [11][54] - In 2024, total electricity generation was 37.615 billion kWh, a 4.41% increase, with electricity revenue of CNY 16.176 billion [11][54] Investment and Dividends - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditure in 2025 to CNY 135.59 billion, with a focus on electricity projects [61][69] - The company maintains a high dividend payout, with total cash dividends reaching CNY 13.070 billion in 2024, representing 58.45% of net profit [12][64]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment, policy signals, and various industry sectors including oil and gas, chemicals, construction materials, and transportation. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Signals and Economic Outlook** - The discussion highlights the anticipation of new policy signals before identifying structural opportunities in the market. The recent easing of tariffs between the US and China is noted, although uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations [1][2][3]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade** - In April, the US collected approximately $1-2 billion in additional tariffs from China, which is insufficient to offset the fiscal risks posed by tax cuts. This indicates a potential expansion risk in the US fiscal situation [2]. 3. **Domestic Economic Conditions** - The domestic economy shows signs of slowing down, particularly in exports to the US, which have declined due to tariff tensions. There is a concern that the temporary boost in exports may not be sustainable [3][4]. 4. **Fiscal Policy and Debt Issuance** - The Chinese government has been proactive in fiscal policy, issuing a significant amount of debt to stimulate the economy. Approximately 2 trillion yuan of bonds were issued in the last quarter, with expectations for continued issuance [4][5][6]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The potential for further monetary easing is discussed, especially as inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) are expected to decline. This could provide more room for liquidity support in the economy [7][8]. 6. **Oil and Gas Sector Analysis** - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a decline in capital expenditure, with a noted 18% drop in the previous year. Demand uncertainties, particularly due to US-China trade relations, are highlighted as a significant concern [10][11]. 7. **Construction Materials and Steel Industry** - The construction materials sector is entering a seasonal downturn, with prices under pressure. However, there are expectations for a rebound in demand as the market transitions from a slow to a peak season [24][26]. 8. **Transportation Sector Insights** - The shipping industry has seen a significant price increase, with container shipping rates doubling in the past month. However, a potential decline in demand is anticipated as the rush for shipping eases [31][32]. 9. **Investment Recommendations** - The call suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and stable fundamentals, particularly in the construction materials and transportation sectors. Specific companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their strong dividend attributes [29][36]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Emerging Opportunities in New Materials** - Companies involved in domestic substitutes for new materials are highlighted as long-term investment opportunities [24]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Stock Performance** - The performance of small-cap stocks is noted, with fluctuations indicating a lack of strong market direction. However, some stocks have shown resilience and potential for recovery [24]. 3. **Global Economic Factors** - The call acknowledges ongoing global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on market dynamics, particularly in the commodities sector [19][20]. 4. **Sector-Specific Risks** - The chemical sector faces challenges due to demand uncertainties and potential overcapacity, which could hinder price recovery despite favorable cost conditions [11][12]. 5. **Future Monitoring of Policy Changes** - The need for ongoing observation of policy developments, particularly in fiscal and monetary areas, is emphasized as critical for future investment strategies [6][8].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry and a specific coal company’s performance and market conditions. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Stability**: The average selling price of coal has stabilized around 380, with slight increases noted in June compared to May, which was also around 380 [1][2] 2. **Market Recovery**: There are indications of market recovery as the price has returned to approximately 390 or above, although real-time comprehensive data is not available [2] 3. **Import Coal Predictions**: It is anticipated that coal imports will decrease, with projections suggesting a reduction of several million tons for the year [3] 4. **Production Capacity**: The company is operating at full production capacity, indicating limited room for growth in output [4] 5. **Regulatory Environment**: There are ongoing discussions about expediting the approval process for new mining projects, which is currently complex and time-consuming [5] 6. **Industry Self-Regulation Challenges**: The coal industry faces challenges in self-regulation, necessitating administrative intervention due to the complexity and diversity of enterprises involved [6][7] 7. **Sales Strategy**: The company is focused on maintaining profit margins through strategic sales policies, despite the current market conditions [8] 8. **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain or increase dividend payouts, reflecting confidence in financial performance despite price fluctuations [9] 9. **Cost Management**: The production cost is stable at around 290, with expectations that costs will remain manageable throughout the year [10] 10. **Long-term Resource Availability**: The company estimates that current resources can sustain production for approximately 70 years, assuming no significant depletion occurs [15][16] Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Impact of Freight Costs**: The discussion includes the implications of freight costs on revenue and how they are accounted for in financial reporting [12][14] - **Coal Production Data**: Clarification on the production data and how certain companies are not included in the reported figures [16] - **Electricity Generation Contribution**: The coal company’s contribution to electricity generation is noted, with figures indicating a slight increase in revenue from this segment [17][18] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current market position, strategic outlook, and operational challenges within the coal industry.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates seasonal improvement in thermal coal demand due to high temperatures in July and August, which may lead to a short-term price recovery for thermal coal. The coal sector is currently underweight, with attractive dividend yields and defensive allocation value [2][25] - For coking coal, there is a rebound in prices driven by strong policy expectations and market sentiment, but the bargaining power of coking coal remains relatively weak in the black industry chain, limiting short-term upside potential [2][34] Supply Summary - Domestic coal production in June reached 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a month-on-month increase of 4.4%. The total coal production for the first half of the year was 240.5 million tons, up 5.4% year-on-year [6][14] - Coal imports in June fell to 33.04 million tons, a decrease of 25.93% year-on-year and 8.3% month-on-month. Cumulative imports for the first half of the year were 221.7 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year [18][21] Demand Summary - In June, thermal power generation increased by 1.1% year-on-year and 7.0% month-on-month, with total domestic power generation reaching 796.3 billion kWh, up 1.7% year-on-year [24][27] - Non-electric coal demand, particularly in cement production, saw a decline, with June production at 15.547 million tons, down 5.3% year-on-year [29][33] - The steel sector showed a significant year-on-year decrease in production, with crude steel output in June at 8.318 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year [33][38] Future Outlook - The report suggests that thermal coal prices may see further support due to seasonal demand increases and the current low inventory levels at power plants. Key factors to monitor include supply conditions, high-temperature weather, and sustained demand release [25][27] - For coking coal, while recent price rebounds are noted, the report indicates limited short-term upside due to weak bargaining power and strong expectations of a seasonal downturn [34][38]