Core Viewpoint - The recent "opening red" in the A-share market reflects a favorable macroeconomic environment and abundant liquidity, which supports market risk appetite and attracts incremental capital inflow, creating a positive feedback loop between capital inflow and market rise [2][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has experienced a strong start with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking key levels and achieving a "sixteen consecutive days" rise, exceeding many investors' expectations [1][19]. - Historical data indicates that after a single-day trading volume exceeds 3 trillion yuan, there is typically at least a monthly-level market rally [19]. - Various types of trading funds have shown signs of accelerated entry, including a net inflow of 78.9 billion yuan in margin financing since the beginning of the year and a return of retail investor net inflow to around 30 billion yuan daily [2][5]. Group 2: Structural Characteristics - The inflow structure of different funds shows a strong consensus on key themes, primarily focusing on TMT (storage, AI applications), military industry (commercial aerospace), non-ferrous metals, new energy (controlled nuclear fusion), machinery (robots), and pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs, brain-machine interfaces) [5][36]. - The global stock market has also seen a strong start in 2026, driven by macroeconomic and industrial narratives, with A-shares reflecting similar trends [13][18]. Group 3: Future Directions - As companies begin to disclose annual reports, earnings will become a key factor driving market dynamics, leading to a structural adjustment where previously hot sectors face performance validation, while some low-performing sectors may attract new capital inflows [36]. - Industries with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (consumer electronics, computing), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military), cyclical sectors (building materials, non-ferrous metals), and consumer sectors (food processing, retail) [37][38].

专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵出席并演讲。 王涵指出，观察全球股市市值，会发现大头仍在发达国家。美国GDP在全球占比26%，其股市市值在全 球占比48%。中国GDP在全球占比大概为17%，但A股就算加上港股，在全球占比也只有14%。也就是 说，股市市值并未完全反映中国经济在全球中的占比。 专题：2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会 2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会于1月10-11日在上海举行，主题为"棋至中局：承前启后 建设强国"。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵出席并演讲。 王涵指出，观察全球股市市值，会发现大头仍在发达国家。美国GDP在全球占比26%，其股市市值在全 球占比48%。中国GDP在全球占比大概为17%，但A股就算加上港股，在全球占比也只有14%。也就是 说，股市市值并未完全反映中国经济在全球中的占比。 "因此从这个角度讲，我们是否需要担心中国股市有泡沫？也许会有泡沫，但市值占比肯定还未到顶。" 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, highlighting a phase of profit growth, structural evolution, and valuation recovery for 2026 [1] Industry Performance Overview - The overall industry performance is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with a mismatch between valuation and performance [4] - From January to November 2025, the Securities II (Shenwan) index increased by 5.6%, underperforming the CSI 300, while the Hong Kong Chinese securities index rose by 42.7%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 10.9 percentage points [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed securities firms reported a combined revenue and net profit increase of 43% and 62% year-on-year, respectively, with an annualized ROE increase of 2.5 percentage points to 7.3% [6] Business Review and Outlook - **Brokerage Business**: The brokerage business is expected to benefit from increased trading volumes, with significant revenue growth anticipated in 2025. However, a decline in commission rates may limit profitability in traditional channel businesses [8] - **Proprietary Trading**: The contribution of proprietary trading to industry performance has significantly increased, with differentiation among firms based on investment capabilities and equity positions. Leading firms are expected to see stable returns, while smaller firms may experience higher volatility [9] - **Asset Management**: The asset management sector is entering a recovery phase driven by public fund transformation, with expected revenue growth of 33% year-on-year in 2026 [10] - **Investment Banking**: The investment banking sector is anticipated to enter a recovery cycle in 2026, supported by improved market conditions and policy incentives [10] Investment Themes for 2026 - The securities sector is positioned as a cost-effective investment opportunity due to its low valuation and performance recovery phase. Key factors include a clear trend of asset allocation towards equities, a recovery in multiple business lines, and supportive policies [12] - Recommended focus on leading securities firms with stable ROE, such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities, which are expected to achieve ROE of 10.1%, 9.4%, and 9.4% in 2026, respectively [12] - Attention should also be given to firms with distinctive asset management and investment banking capabilities, such as Industrial Securities and China International Capital Corporation, which are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market trends [12] Policy Environment - The report outlines a clear policy direction for the securities industry, emphasizing a shift from scale expansion to functional positioning and high-quality development. This includes a focus on value competition and the optimization of risk control indicators for leading firms [30][32] - The regulatory framework is evolving to support differentiated capabilities and strategic positioning among firms, with an emphasis on enhancing professional services and internationalization [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The semi-annual review of the Hang Seng Composite Index has concluded, and a new round of adjustments to the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible stocks is imminent, with results expected to be announced on February 20 and effective from March 9, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Adjustments and Market Impact - A total of 48 Hong Kong stocks are expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect eligible list based on simulated calculations [2][3]. - The market capitalization threshold for new eligible stocks has been raised to HKD 9 billion as of December 31, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Industry Distribution of New Eligible Stocks - The new eligible stocks are primarily concentrated in the following sectors: - Healthcare: 14 companies, including names like 英矽智能 and 健康160 [3]. - Information Technology: 8 companies, including 滴普科技 and 极智嘉-W [3]. - Consumer Discretionary: 8 companies, including 卧安机器人 and 轻松健康 [3]. - Industrial: 7 companies, including 京东工业 and 果下科技 [3]. - Financials: 5 companies, including HASHKEY HLDGS and 徽商银行 [3]. - Materials: 3 companies, including 创新实业 and 佳鑫国际资源 [3]. - Consumer Staples: 1 company, 乐舒适 [3]. - Telecommunications: 1 company, 经纬天地 [3]. - Conglomerates: 1 company, 周大福创建 [3]. Group 3: Detailed List of New Eligible Stocks - A detailed list of stocks expected to be included includes: - 乐舒适 (2025-11-10, average daily market cap: HKD 1.898 billion) [4]. - 经纬天地 (2024-01-12, average daily market cap: HKD 0.938 billion) [4]. - 卧安机器人 (2025-12-30, average daily market cap: HKD 1.717 billion) [4]. - 轻松健康 (2025-12-23, average daily market cap: HKD 1.335 billion) [4]. - 博泰车联 (2025-09-30, average daily market cap: HKD 1.297 billion) [4]. - 京东工业 (2025-12-11, average daily market cap: HKD 37.31 billion) [4]. - HASHKEY HLDGS (2025-12-17, average daily market cap: HKD 1.643 billion) [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the findings of the continuous supervision conducted by the sponsor institution, highlighting that Yuchen Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. has complied with relevant regulations in governance, internal control, information disclosure, independence, fundraising usage, and operational status during the supervision period [1][18]. Group 1: Company Governance and Internal Control - The company has completed and complied with its articles of association and internal control systems, with effective execution of relevant regulations [2][3]. - The decision-making procedures of the shareholders' and board meetings are compliant, with complete meeting records and well-preserved materials [3]. Group 2: Information Disclosure - The company has established and executed an information disclosure management system in accordance with relevant regulations during the supervision period [4][5]. Group 3: Independence and Related Party Transactions - The company maintains complete assets and operates independently, with no violations regarding the appropriation of company funds by related parties during the supervision period [6][8]. Group 4: Fundraising Usage - The company has adhered to regulations regarding the storage and usage of raised funds, with no violations found. The timeline for the completion of a fundraising project has been extended from December 2025 to December 2026 [9][10]. Group 5: Related Transactions and External Guarantees - The company has established sound internal control systems for related transactions, external guarantees, and significant external investments, with no violations reported during the supervision period [11][12]. Group 6: Operational Status - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 509.37 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 49.04% to -108.81 million, primarily due to lower acceptance of equipment and increased costs [13][14]. Group 7: Recommendations and Compliance - The company is advised to continue improving its governance structure and fulfill information disclosure obligations in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector experienced a collective decline, with all 43 listed brokerages falling on January 8, indicating a potential correction after a rapid increase in stock prices [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 8, the brokerage index dropped by 2.7%, with notable declines including Huayin Securities hitting the daily limit down, Hu'an Securities and Huatai Securities falling over 5%, and several others like Xinyi Securities and Guotai Haitong dropping over 4% [4][5]. - Huayin Securities closed at 16.92 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 4.28%, and a total market capitalization of 45.684 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The trading data showed that Huayin Securities was heavily traded, with a net sell of 205 million yuan, indicating significant investor activity despite the price drop [5][6]. - Major selling came from Guotai Haitong and Aijian Securities, while buying interest was noted from Dongfang Securities and China Galaxy Securities [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current pullback in the brokerage sector is a normal phenomenon following rapid price increases, with a long-term upward trend expected in a slow bull market [5]. - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see improved performance due to factors such as enhanced industry structure, balanced internal business growth, and increased return on equity (ROE) [8]. - By 2025, the brokerage sector is projected to achieve significant earnings growth, driven by a booming capital market and increased brokerage and credit business performance [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The M&A market in 2025 is expected to remain active, with a significant increase in both the number and scale of transactions, driven by policy support and market recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Activity - The number of M&A cases involving A-share listed companies reached 1,527, with a total scale of 10,158 billion yuan, marking a new high since 2022, representing an increase of 119 cases and 1,678 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - In the first half of 2025, there were 665 M&A cases with a scale of 4,174 billion yuan, while the second half is expected to see 862 cases totaling 5,984 billion yuan, indicating a faster pace of M&A activity [3]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The majority of M&A cases in 2025 are concentrated in the new productivity sectors, with traditional industries also contributing significantly to large-scale M&A cases [7]. - Key industries for M&A activity include chemicals, electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, power equipment, automotive, and computing, reflecting a trend towards resource integration driven by new productivity [10]. Group 3: Company Attributes - The participation of non-state-owned enterprises in M&A transactions has increased significantly, with their share of transaction amounts rising from 23.5% in 2024 to 37.2% in 2025 [14]. - Non-state-owned enterprises are leading M&A activities in new productivity sectors, while state-owned enterprises dominate traditional industries such as coal, banking, and public utilities [17]. Group 4: M&A Characteristics - Cross-industry M&A has increased, accounting for 56.31% of total M&A cases in 2025, up by 6.2 percentage points from 2024 [22]. - Most cross-industry M&A cases are focused on internal resource integration within the industry chain, with fewer traditional industry cases acquiring new productivity companies [28]. Group 5: Stock Performance - Companies involved in M&A activities, particularly those transitioning from traditional industries to new productivity sectors, have shown significant excess returns post-announcement [32][36].

Core Insights - The securities app market demonstrates strong resilience amid market fluctuations and technological changes, with an average monthly active user (MAU) of 127.28 million in the first 11 months of 2025, peaking at over 135 million in October [1][2]. User Engagement - The top 10 securities firms by MAU include Huatai Securities, Guosen Securities, and China Galaxy Securities, with Huatai's app achieving an average MAU of 8.25 million [4][5]. - A total of 18 firms reported an average MAU exceeding 1 million, indicating a competitive landscape [2][4]. App Development Trends - "High-frequency iteration" is a key trend, with the top 10 apps averaging 9 updates this year, focusing on trading features, market services, and AI capabilities [3][13]. - Guotai Junan's apps led the industry with 25 updates each, showcasing a commitment to continuous improvement [3][13]. Growth Metrics - Several apps achieved significant growth, with the highest increase seen in Industrial Securities' app, which grew by 67.64% from January to November [7][8]. - Year-over-year, 18 apps reported growth, with only two experiencing a decline [9][10]. Daily Active Users (DAU) - Huatai's app leads in DAU with an average of 337.97 million, significantly higher than the second-place app from招商证券 at 199.29 million [11][12]. AI Integration - The integration of AI in investment advisory services is a major focus, with firms like Guotai Junan and China Galaxy enhancing their apps with AI-driven features [13][14]. - The trend towards digital transformation is evident as firms aim to improve user experience and service efficiency through AI [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The financial sector is experiencing a significant decline, with brokerage firms and insurance companies leading the downturn [1]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, has seen notable declines, with the brokerage sector down by 2.74% and insurance down by 3.99% [2]. - Other sectors also reported losses, with engineering machinery down by 1.60% and basic metals down by 1.50% [2]. Group 2: Individual Company Performance - Huayin Securities has hit the daily limit down, falling by 10.00% to a price of 16.92 [3]. - Huashan Securities dropped by 5.58% to 7.11, while Huatai Securities fell by 4.88% to 23.99 [3]. - Other notable declines include China Ping An down by 4.63% to 70.05, and Guangfa Securities down by 4.19% to 22.19 [3]. - Several other companies, including CITIC Securities and Changjiang Securities, also experienced declines ranging from 2.57% to 3.19% [3].

Group 1 - The financial sector experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with non-bank financials leading the drop [1] - Huatai Securities and Hua'an Securities both fell over 5%, while Hualin Securities hit the daily limit down [1] - Other securities firms such as Industrial Securities, GF Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities also followed the downward trend [1]