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研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持绿联科技“买入”评级,产品&渠道均发力
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-07 06:02
东吴证券研报指出,绿联科技预计2025年归母净利润6.53至7.33亿,同比增长41~59%;Q4预计归母净 利润1.86~2.66亿元,同比增长33~89%。公司2025年全年业绩指引中枢为6.93亿元,略高于Wind一致预 期的6.75亿元。公司多维度发展要素协同发力,叠加清晰的品牌战略与稳健的经营理念支撑,通过精准 捕捉市场需求,持续夯实核心竞争力,全面拓展市场布局并借力政策利好,最终实现经营质量与效益的 稳步提升。该行认为公司在产品端和渠道端近期均有亮眼表现,未来渠道和产品的发力有望让公司业绩 持续高增,维持"买入"评级。 ...
研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持华友钴业“买入”评级,Q4价格全面向上,业绩超预期
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-07 05:39
Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.85 to 6.45 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8% to 55.2% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 1.63 to 2.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 44% to 97% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% to 48% [1] - The company's performance in Q4 2025 is anticipated to exceed market expectations [1] Nickel Price Outlook - The average nickel price in Q4 2025 is expected to be 15,000 USD, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce mining quota issuance in 2026, which may support nickel prices; the price has risen from a low of 14,500 USD to 16,800 USD in December [1] - If nickel prices maintain this level, the company's profit per ton of nickel could increase by 1,000 to 4,000 USD, contributing over 4 billion yuan in profit [1] Product Growth - The production of ternary cathodes is expected to reach nearly 100,000 tons in 2025, doubling year-on-year, while ternary precursors are projected to be around 110,000 tons, with stable growth expected in 2026 [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 from 6.0/9.0/10.9 billion yuan to 6.2/10.7/12.4 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 50%/72%/15% [1] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios (PE) are projected to be 22x/13x/11x, with a target PE of 20x for 2026 and a target price of 113 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]
东吴证券:太空光伏有望迎来高速发展 投资聚焦高效钙钛矿与叠层技术
智通财经网· 2026-01-07 02:25
Core Insights - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the rapid development of commercial aerospace and low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, indicating that space photovoltaic power supply is optimal and may experience rapid growth, supported by efficient perovskite/silicon tandem technology [1] Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Development - The maturity of reusable rocket technology has significantly reduced launch costs, breaking down economic barriers to entering space. The scarcity of satellite frequency resources is driving countries to accelerate the acquisition of strategic resources, leading to a sustained increase in global spacecraft launches. The number of global spacecraft launches has grown from 237 in 2016 to over 4,300 by 2025, with a CAGR of 34% and an increase of over 50% year-on-year in 2025 [2] Group 2: Photovoltaic Energy in Satellites - Photovoltaics are the only efficient and stable energy source for satellites, with solar wings accounting for approximately 20-30% of the satellite manufacturing cost. Solar wings are critical for spacecraft operation, representing over 60% of the value, with current mainstream gallium arsenide costing around 200,000 to 300,000 per square meter. As the power requirements of satellites increase, the area of solar wings is expected to grow significantly, with SpaceX's Starlink V3 satellite solar wing area increasing by over 10 times compared to earlier versions [3] Group 3: Technology Optimization - Gallium arsenide is the mainstream technology in China, known for its high efficiency and radiation resistance, with component efficiency exceeding 30%. However, its high cost (200,000 to 400,000 yuan per square meter) may limit large-scale satellite constellation deployment. In contrast, foreign companies like SpaceX have lower launch costs, and while silicon can offer lower weight-to-cost ratios, the lower-cost P-type silicon route may be preferred for single satellite costs. Perovskite batteries show promise in terms of lightweight, high energy-to-weight ratio, low cost, and stability, potentially becoming a superior solution for space power supply [4] Group 4: Market Potential and Investment Recommendations - The global deployment of low Earth orbit satellites is entering an explosive phase, with over 100,000 satellites registered globally by the end of 2025. The U.S. leads with approximately 42,000 satellites through Starlink, while China has submitted plans for over 51,000 satellites. Assuming an annual launch of 10,000 satellites, the solar wing market could reach nearly 200 billion. The surge in AI computing demand is pushing computational power to space, leveraging the advantages of solar energy and thermal conditions in near-Earth orbit. If a 10GW space computing system is established, the solar wing market could reach several trillion yuan. Investment recommendations include JunDa Co. (collaborating with Shangyi on satellite perovskite), Mingyang Smart Energy (subsidiary focusing on perovskite and HJT technology), and others in the HJT/perovskite battery sector [5]
东吴证券:商业航天+低轨卫星加速发展 太空光伏前景广阔
智通财经网· 2026-01-06 22:37
智通财经APP获悉,东吴证券发布研报称,商业航天+低轨卫星加速发展背景下,太空光伏供能最优, 或有望迎来高速发展。载荷升级推动太阳翼用量扩张,大面积、高效率的太阳翼将成商业航天竞备的关 键。低轨卫星锤炼技术+太空算力需求潜力大,太空光伏前景广阔。若后续构建10 GW太空算力系统, 太阳翼市场规模或达数万亿元。钙钛矿电池在轻量化与高能质比、低成本、稳定性等方面具备优势,潜 力十足、有望成为太空供电更优方案。 东吴证券主要观点如下: 科技竞争前沿,商业航天冉冉升起。随着可回收火箭技术的成熟,航天发射成本大幅下降,逐步打破进 入太空的经济壁垒。卫星频轨资源的稀缺性推动各国加速抢占战略资源,全球航天器发射量持续高增。 近10年来全球航天器发射数自2016年237颗增长至2025年超4300颗,CAGR达34%;25年同增超50%。全 球卫星在轨工作数已超万颗,备案数量超10万颗,后续发射数有望进一步井喷。 光伏是卫星唯一高效、长期稳定的能源形式,随功耗增长太阳翼用量提升。卫星电源系统在整星制造成 本中约20-30%,其中太阳翼是航天器在轨运行的能量心脏,材料特殊、可靠性要求极高,约占60%+价 值量,当前主流砷化镓对 ...
研报掘金|东吴证券:看好平价茶饮细分赛道持续保持较快增长 维持蜜雪集团“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-06 07:30
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the affordable tea beverage segment is expected to maintain rapid growth due to its lower average transaction value and alignment with mass consumer upgrade logic, with significant penetration potential in lower-tier markets [1] - The report indicates that after an initial phase of rapid expansion, the current number of industry stores has significantly exceeded demand, leading to an accelerated trend of eliminating weaker brands and favoring stronger ones with robust product and channel capabilities [1] - The brand Mixue is highlighted as a leading player in the affordable tea beverage market, with a strong visibility of market share growth, and the company is projected to reach approximately 70,000 stores domestically and 10,000 to 15,000 stores in Southeast Asia [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that Mixue's net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.85 billion, 6.52 billion, and 7.3 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 12%, and 12% respectively [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory and market position [1]
东吴证券:看好平价茶饮细分赛道持续保持较快增长 维持蜜雪集团“买入”评级
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 07:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the affordable tea beverage segment is expected to maintain rapid growth due to its lower average transaction value and alignment with mass consumer upgrade logic, with significant penetration potential in lower-tier markets [1] - The report indicates that the current number of stores in the industry has significantly exceeded demand, leading to an accelerated trend of eliminating weaker brands and favoring stronger ones with robust product capabilities and channel strength [1] - The company, Mixue, is highlighted as a leading brand in the affordable tea beverage market, with a strong visibility in market share growth, and is projected to reach approximately 70,000 stores domestically and 10,000 to 15,000 stores in Southeast Asia [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that Mixue's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 5.85 billion, 6.52 billion, and 7.3 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 12%, and 12% respectively [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, indicating confidence in its future performance and market position [1]
研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持鼎泰高科“买入”评级,AI PCB需求爆发拉动公司业绩成长
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-06 06:45
Core Viewpoint - Ding Tai High-Tech is expected to see significant growth in its 2025 performance, driven by the explosive demand for AI PCB, with a strong performance trend continuing from the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company maintains a high growth trajectory for the entire year of 2025, primarily due to the sustained demand for AI computing servers and data centers [1] - The high-end PCB market demand has significantly increased, leading to growth in the demand for the company's PCB drilling needles and polishing materials [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - The company's expansion speed is leading in the industry, with continuous breakthroughs in high aspect ratio drilling needles [1] - Due to the accelerated construction of AI computing infrastructure, the supply of drilling needles is currently insufficient [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - The net profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards for 2025-2027 to 440 million (originally 400 million), 810 million (originally 630 million), and 1.57 billion (originally 900 million) yuan respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic P/E ratios of 134, 72, and 37 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]
研报掘金丨东吴证券:维持巨星科技“买入”评级,看好公司成长韧性&降息带来业绩弹性
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-06 06:32
Core Viewpoint - The performance forecast for 2025 by Giant Star Technology aligns with expectations, indicating strong growth resilience and performance elasticity due to anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Performance Outlook - The company has a record high order backlog for 2026, with an 81.7% probability of interest rate cuts in January 2026 according to FedWatch, suggesting a potential turning point for company performance [1] - The acceleration of overseas production capacity and rapid growth in the electric tools business are highlighted as key growth drivers [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to continue product innovation, aiming for high revenue growth in the coming years, which is expected to establish a second growth curve [1] - The chairman's continuous share purchases reflect confidence in the company's long-term development [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]
研报掘金丨东吴证券:世纪华通以创新持续推动品类突破,首予“买入”评级
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-06 06:23
Core Viewpoint - Century Huatong is positioned as a leader in mobile game globalization, driven by innovation and high growth [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Century Huatong's subsidiary, Diandian Interactive, has gained extensive global marketing, community operation, and publishing experience through the agency distribution of KingsGroup's hit games, "King of Avalon" and "Gunfire Reborn" [1] - The company has transitioned from agency publishing to self-research and self-publishing from 2019 to 2022, employing a multi-track "trial and error" approach to expand its game categories and solidify its methodologies [1] Group 2: Growth Strategy - The company has clarified its positioning and strategy, believing that a mature framework can reduce development costs and trial risks for new projects, thereby improving product ROI [1] - Century Huatong is deeply engaged in the global market, continuously iterating and expanding its game categories, with the dual hit games validating its framework and marking its entry into a new growth phase [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Comparable companies are projected to have average P/E ratios of 31.6, 19.7, and 17.3 times for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [1] - The company is expected to gradually release profits as the user acquisition phase for its hit games concludes, while continuing to drive category breakthroughs through innovation [1] - The initial coverage of the company has been rated as "Buy" [1]
东吴证券:港股进入震荡上行期 把握上半年的科技成长行情
智通财经网· 2026-01-06 00:03
Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks are showing strong performance at the beginning of the year, making them attractive for medium to long-term investment allocation. The expectation is that southbound funds will continue to increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks, primarily driven by insurance and fixed income investments. The performance of Hong Kong technology stocks will be influenced by the pace of interest rate cuts overseas and the performance of US technology stocks, necessitating dynamic observation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, emerging markets rose by 2.3%, while developed markets fell by 0.6%. The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 4.3%, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.0%, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect gained 1.5%. The energy sector led the gains, with southbound funds primarily flowing into the financial sector and out of telecommunications [2]. - The report indicates that the current position of Hong Kong stocks is attractive for medium to long-term allocation, largely due to factors such as new year positioning and short covering [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Short-term positioning in Hong Kong stocks should be controlled, with expectations for better performance around the Chinese New Year. Concerns exist regarding potential pullbacks in US technology stocks in January, which could indirectly affect Hong Kong stocks. Investors are cautious about upcoming earnings reports from US technology companies, focusing on capital expenditures and return on investment [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining dividends as a base while capitalizing on the technology growth trend in the first half of the year. Southbound funds are expected to continue increasing their allocation to value dividends [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing and services PMIs showed a slowdown, with the December Markit Composite PMI falling to 53, the lowest in six months, and both manufacturing and services PMIs below market expectations. This indicates a weakening economic growth momentum [3][4]. - The US job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims dropping to 199,000, the lowest level in a year, and continuing claims also decreasing. The housing market is recovering, with a 3.3% month-on-month increase in the pending home sales index for November [4]. Group 4: Global Investment Trends - Global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $30.976 billion, with a marginal inflow of $4.844 billion, while bond ETFs experienced a net inflow of $5.337 billion. The US stock ETFs had the highest net inflow at $19.64 billion, while Chinese stock ETFs led among emerging markets with a net inflow of $1.46 billion [7]. - The report highlights that institutional investors are reducing their gold holdings, while retail investors are slightly increasing theirs, indicating a shift in investment preferences [6][7].