Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the materials sector, specifically aluminum, copper, and the battery chain, with a cautious stance on anti-involution sectors [1][2][3]. Core Insights Aluminum - Aluminum is preferred over copper due to underappreciated supply risks, particularly regarding smelting capacity in Indonesia and potential over-optimism in Middle Eastern expansion plans [2]. - Chinese smelter utilization is reported at over 98%, with China being a net importer of aluminum, primarily from Russia [2]. - Apparent consumption and inventory levels for aluminum in China are healthier compared to copper [2]. - Top picks in aluminum include Hongqiao and Chalco H/A [2]. Copper - Demand for copper is weakening as of Q4 2025, with inventory stockpiling observed in both the US and China [3]. - Price expectations for copper may be influenced by anticipated rate cuts into 2026, with long-term bullish sentiment due to potential supply deficits in the next 3-5 years [3]. - Tight global power supply is contributing to positive sentiment for copper [3]. - Zijin Mining's copper and lithium assets are considered undervalued, with a Buy rating maintained [3]. - Among pure copper plays, MMG is preferred over CMOC for better valuation [3]. Battery Chain - The battery chain is viewed as more defensive, with a rally driven by strong expectations for energy storage systems (ESS) [4]. - Caution is advised before the Chinese New Year, as the rally may be mostly priced in [4]. - Defensive names like CATL are preferred into Q1 2026 due to uncertainties in production pipelines and weak EV demand [4]. - Key catalysts to watch include the production pipeline in March 2026, which could shift market sentiment towards companies with higher elasticity [4]. Cement and Steel - Cement and steel sectors are the least preferred, with steel demand supported by exports but facing weaker anti-involution enforcement [5]. - Production cuts in cement are not expected due to profitability among companies, leading to low prices and profits into H1 2026, with potential recovery in H2 2026 [6]. Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the production pipeline and market conditions closely, particularly for aluminum and copper [2][3][4]. - The overall sector ranking is: Aluminum > Copper > Battery > Gold > Battery Materials > Coal > Cement > Steel [1]. - Cross-sector top picks include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A [1].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to an increase in aluminum prices [6][11] - Domestic aluminum supply is slightly increasing due to new projects, while demand is expected to weaken as the year-end approaches [7][11] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 5, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2900.5 per ton, up $35.5 from the previous week, and up $262.0 year-on-year [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥22,345.0 per ton, an increase of ¥735.0 week-on-week and ¥1,765.0 year-on-year [24] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥22,150.0 per ton, up ¥720.0 week-on-week and ¥1,740.0 year-on-year [24] 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and 66,000 tons year-on-year [56] - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [56] 3. Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 596,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants reached 3.365 million tons, with a weekly increase of 19,000 tons [34] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price ¥30.67, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.54, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price ¥14.07, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.00, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price ¥27.20, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥2.13, with a "Buy" rating [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price ¥11.40, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥0.84, with a "Buy" rating [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price ¥28.31, EPS forecast for 2025E is ¥1.88, with a "Buy" rating [5]

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on the "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify investment hotspots. The calculation formula is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of fallback [11][19][26] - The model evaluates the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies, referencing studies by George (2004), William O'Neil's CANSLIM framework, and Mark Minervini's "Stock Market Wizard," which emphasize the importance of stocks near their 52-week highs as potential leaders in market uptrends [11][18][21] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Sustained new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days [26][28][29] - The report identifies 41 "stable new high stocks" based on the above criteria, with the majority belonging to cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Notable industries include non-ferrous metals and machinery [29][30][32] - Backtesting results show that cyclical and manufacturing sectors have the highest number of stocks achieving new highs, with cyclical stocks leading in non-ferrous metals and manufacturing stocks excelling in machinery [19][20][29]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Aluminum Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association highlighted the current state and future direction of the aluminum industry, emphasizing the need for innovation, green transformation, and international cooperation to ensure sustainable development [2][3][6]. Group 1: Meeting Overview - The fourth council meeting of the Aluminum Branch was held in Kunming, Yunnan, with participation from various industry leaders and companies [2][3]. - The meeting summarized the work of the branch's secretariat over the past year and made adjustments to leadership positions and member units [3][36]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The aluminum industry is characterized by high resource dependence, accelerated overseas expansion, deepening green transformation, enhanced trade resilience, and overall improved efficiency since 2025 [6][37]. - Key areas for high-quality development in the aluminum industry include resource security, alumina reform, maintaining the electrolytic aluminum ceiling, extending aluminum processing, promoting green low-carbon manufacturing, expanding aluminum applications, enhancing international cooperation, and strengthening industry self-discipline [6][37]. Group 3: Recommendations and Future Directions - Recommendations for the industry's future include strengthening policy research, deepening innovation in services, promoting technological advancements, and fostering industry self-discipline [6][37]. - The new chairman of the Aluminum Branch emphasized the importance of aligning with national strategies, building cooperative platforms, and enhancing collaboration within the industry to achieve a strong aluminum sector [11][43]. Group 4: Company Highlights - Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. has developed into a leading green aluminum supplier with significant production capacities, including 1.6 million tons of bauxite and 1.4 million tons of alumina [20][52]. - The company aims to become a benchmark for green aluminum enterprises through low-carbon transformation and technological innovation [20][52]. Group 5: Technical Reports - The meeting featured reports from experts on the current state and future trends of alumina and electrolytic aluminum technology, highlighting the need for innovation and development in these areas [24][56].

证券之星消息，12月5日，全指材料（000987）指数报收于4681.4点，涨2.13%，成交1256.67亿元，换手 率1.57%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有137家，国际复材以20.03%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有24家，多氟 多以2.46%的跌幅领跌。 全指材料（000987）指数十大成份股详情如下： | 证券代码 | 股票简称 | 权重 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | 总市值(亿元) | | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sh601899 | 紫金矿业 | 11.36% | 31.32 | 2.05% | | 8324.09 | 有色金属 | | sh600309 | 万华化学 | 3.05% | 69.98 | 3.40% | | 2190.70 | 基础化工 | | sh603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 2.75% | 18.42 | 2.90% | | 3940.83 | 有色金属 | | sh600111 | 北方稀土 | 2.75% | 47.33 | 1.44% | | 1711.01 | 有色金属 | | sz ...

Core Insights - The document outlines various merger and acquisition cases involving multiple companies, with a focus on their completion dates and involved parties [3]. Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions - Baker Hughes Company is set to acquire a stake in Charter Industrial Company, with the case expected to conclude on November 24, 2025 [3]. - Anhui Wanlong Magnetic Plastic Co., Ltd. plans to acquire Guangdong Midea Smart Life Appliance Manufacturing Co., Ltd., with a completion date of November 24, 2025 [3]. - Beijing Tongrentang (Group) Co., Ltd. is acquiring Tianjin Tongrentang Group Co., Ltd., expected to finalize on November 24, 2025 [3]. - Shengke Public Utilities Co., Ltd. and OQ Alternative Energy Co., Ltd. are establishing a joint venture, with the case concluding on November 24, 2025 [3]. - Yanfeng International Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. is acquiring Chongqing Xiaokang Automotive Parts Co., Ltd.'s automotive interior and exterior business, expected to close on November 25, 2025 [3]. - Anqing Dibo Powder Metallurgy Co., Ltd. is set to acquire Aisin (Anqing) Automotive Parts Co., Ltd., with the case expected to conclude on November 25, 2025 [3]. - China Aluminum Group High-end Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is acquiring Shandong Yanzhou Mining Group Light Alloy Co., Ltd., with a completion date of November 26, 2025 [3]. - Tangshan Industrial Holding Group Co., Ltd. is acquiring Shenzhen Gongjin Electronics Co., Ltd., expected to finalize on November 26, 2025 [3]. - Mingqijia Information Service Co., Ltd. and Zibo Energy Group Co., Ltd. are establishing a joint venture, with the case concluding on November 27, 2025 [3]. - Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is acquiring Suzhou Jingkong Energy Technology Co., Ltd., expected to close on November 27, 2025 [3]. - China Resources Cultural Sports Development Co., Ltd. and Wuxi New Zewen Business Travel Investment Development Co., Ltd. are establishing a joint venture, with a completion date of November 27, 2025 [3]. - Shenzhen Guangsheng Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd. and Guangdong Hengjian Asset Management Co., Ltd. are establishing a joint venture, expected to conclude on November 27, 2025 [3]. - Dazhang Capital Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. is acquiring Aneng Logistics Group Co., Ltd. from Emei Investments Pte. Ltd., with the case expected to finalize on November 27, 2025 [3]. - Nokia Communications Investment (China) Co., Ltd. is acquiring Shanghai Nokia Bell Co., Ltd., with a completion date of November 28, 2025 [3]. - Hillhouse Investment Management V, L.P. is acquiring shares in Shanghai Kangde Hongyi Medical Clinical Research Co., Ltd. and Shanghai WuXi AppTec Co., Ltd., expected to close on November 28, 2025 [3].

库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378)、中国铝业（601600）(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业（601899） (02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代（300750）(300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民 币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民币。 花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为85.6万公吨，按周持 平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比上升7%。 ...

库存方面，截至12月4日，铝坯加铝锭(Aluminum Ingot)总库存为87.8万公吨，按周下降1%，同比上升 3%。库存水平较2021年同期低，但较2022至24同期高。期内消耗量按周下降，但水平仍高于2022至 2024年同期。 在物料行业中，该行较偏好铝，其后依次为铜、电池、黄金、电池材料、煤炭、水泥及钢铁。股份方 面，该行首选中国宏桥(01378) 、中国铝业(02600,601600.SH)、紫金矿业(02899,601899.SH)和宁德时代 (300750.SZ)，目标价分别为36港元、12.41港元/14.77元人民币、39港元/35.5元人民币，及571元人民 币。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，行业数据显示，今年11月27日至12月3日期间，中国铝总产量为 85.6万公吨，按周持平，同比上升3%，当中铝坯(Aluminum Billet)产量为36.2万公吨，按周持平，同比 上升7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aluminum stocks strengthened in the late trading session, driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Aluminum (601600) rose by 5.77% to HKD 11.74 - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) increased by 3.69% to HKD 44.94 - China Hongqiao (01378) gained 1.94% to HKD 33.64 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline since March 2023, which was significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 10,000 jobs [1] - This data has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1] Group 3: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum price increases were influenced by the performance of silver and copper [1] - Long-term supply constraints and low inventory levels provide substantial support for aluminum prices [1] - Despite December being a traditional off-peak consumption season, demand remains resilient without significant declines [1] Group 4: Supply Outlook - Global aluminum supply growth is expected to remain constrained, keeping the market in a "tight balance" in the long term [1] - A key risk factor is Indonesia's aluminum production capacity, which is being developed due to low-cost coal power and bauxite resources, although the scale of new capacity remains uncertain [1]