Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. The negative feedback for copper and aluminum has notably weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The cycle assessment indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The precious metals sector experienced the highest gains [21]. 3. Precious Metals - For precious metals, trading has become intensely liquid, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold were 102 tons, an increase of 1.96 tons from the previous week [14][30]. 4. Copper - The copper market is experiencing renewed support due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. The operating rate for refined copper rods was 67.98%, up by 10.51 percentage points [17][29]. 5. Aluminum - The aluminum market shows signs of demand recovery as negative feedback weakens. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate rose by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][85].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates a decrease in risk aversion and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, suggesting a more favorable macroeconomic environment for the aluminum sector [6][10] - The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at high levels, with a long-term outlook indicating limited supply growth against a backdrop of increasing demand [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3173.5 per ton, up $39.5 from the previous week, marking a 1.3% week-on-week increase and a 20.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 24290.0 CNY per ton, up 365.0 CNY from the previous week, reflecting a 1.5% week-on-week increase and a 19.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 24130.0 CNY per ton, up 130.0 CNY week-on-week, representing a 0.5% increase and a 19.5% year-on-year increase [22] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 378.1 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [55] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 752.0 million tons, up 8.0 million tons month-on-month and up 2.5% year-on-year [55] 3. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 743,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons, indicating a slight slowdown in inventory accumulation [7] - The report notes that the overall inventory levels have not peaked, suggesting ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies highlighted include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5] - China Hongqiao's stock price was 32.16 CNY with an EPS forecast of 2.77 CNY for 2026, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.6 [5] 5. Demand - The report indicates that downstream demand remains subdued, with only essential purchases being made due to high aluminum prices and a seasonal demand lull [7] - The overall operating rate for aluminum processing was recorded at 60.9%, showing a slight increase but indicating mixed performance across different segments [7]

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]

Core Insights - The China Securities Sub-Industry Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (000811) has seen a strong increase of 2.55% as of January 23, 2026, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Huafeng Aluminum (up 10.00%), Silver Nonferrous (up 9.97%), and Tongling Nonferrous (up 9.94%) [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 2.75%, reaching a latest price of 2.24 yuan, and has accumulated a 1.16% increase over the past week [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 21 days, totaling 11.807 billion yuan, with the latest share count reaching 7.224 billion and total assets at 15.773 billion yuan, both marking new highs since inception [1] - Over the past two years, the net value of the Nonferrous Metals ETF has increased by 169.74%, ranking 35th out of 2,515 index equity funds, placing it in the top 1.39% [1] - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 27.00% since inception, with the longest consecutive months of increase being 6 months and the highest cumulative increase being 69.57%, averaging a monthly return of 9.76% during rising months [1] Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Theme Index include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Ganfeng Lithium, Shandong Gold, Yun Aluminum, Zhongjin Gold, and Tianqi Lithium, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2] Stock Performance - The performance of key stocks within the index includes: - Zijin Mining: -0.13% with a weight of 15.30% - Luoyang Molybdenum: +0.13% with a weight of 7.92% - Northern Rare Earth: +0.44% with a weight of 5.30% - Huayou Cobalt: +5.38% with a weight of 4.69% - China Aluminum: -0.45% with a weight of 4.39% - Ganfeng Lithium: +5.63% with a weight of 3.23% - Shandong Gold: +0.87% with a weight of 3.18% - Yun Aluminum: -0.24% with a weight of 3.11% - Zhongjin Gold: +2.88% with a weight of 3.08% - Tianqi Lithium: +3.54% with a weight of 2.60% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), reaching a historical high and significant trading volume, indicating potential investment opportunities [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a robust performance, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising by 3.29% and achieving a trading volume of 1.07 billion yuan, surpassing the previous day's total [1][9]. - Major stocks in the sector, such as Baiyin Non-Ferrous and Tongling Non-Ferrous, have seen significant gains, with Baiyin Non-Ferrous up by 9.97% and Tongling Non-Ferrous by 9.94% [2][14]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the non-ferrous metal sector leading among 31 primary sub-industries in the A-share market [5][13]. Group 2: Gold Price Surge - International gold prices have surged, with spot gold reaching 4,950 USD per ounce, marking a new historical high, while COMEX gold futures peaked at 4,970 USD per ounce [2][10]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to factors such as geopolitical tensions, U.S. risks, and central bank gold purchases, which are expected to support gold prices in the future [3][13]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has seen a net subscription of 52.2 million units, accumulating 844 million yuan over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [1][11]. - The ETF covers a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture various market cycles [6][16]. - Analysts predict that the demand for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin will continue to perform well due to emerging needs in AI, electricity, and new energy sectors [3][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong resurgence of gold's financial attributes, driven by factors such as real interest rates, the US dollar index, and regional situations, with gold prices reaching historical highs of $4,960 per ounce and silver surpassing $97 per ounce [1] - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set records 53 times, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $89 billion and total holdings climbing to a historical high of 4,025 tons, indicating a continuous influx of funds driving up the value of gold assets [1] - Silver is positioned as an essential raw material in three key sectors: solar photovoltaic, automotive and electric vehicles, and data centers and artificial intelligence, supporting its core role in future industrial transformations [1] Group 2 - As of January 23, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.86%, with component stocks such as silver and gold companies showing significant gains, including a 9.97% increase in silver stocks and a 7.02% rise in Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] - The National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector, based on a sample of 50 securities with notable scale and liquidity, providing a benchmark for industry investment [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests focusing on three stock selection criteria in the electrolytic aluminum industry: companies with high capacity-to-market value ratio and significant earnings elasticity with rising aluminum prices, those with overseas expansion capabilities and strong growth potential, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates amid current low alumina prices [1] Group 1: Stock Recommendations - CICC maintains a "outperform industry" rating for China Hongqiao (01378), raising the target price from 29.29 HKD to 42.79 HKD [1] - Recommended stocks include: China Hongqiao, Nanshan Aluminum (600219) International H-share (02610/target price 77.76 HKD), Nanshan Aluminum A-share (600219.SH/target price 7.25 RMB), China Aluminum (601600) (02600/target price 17.04 HKD), Tianshan Aluminum (002532) (002532.SZ/target price 22.67 RMB), and Huatong Cable (605196), all rated "outperform industry" [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017, with early movers gaining competitive advantages in resource-rich regions [2] - Companies like China Hongqiao are targeting low-cost regions, particularly in Indonesia, for alumina sourcing, while Guinea's bauxite mining is expected to produce around 170 million tons by 2025, with China Hongqiao projected to be the largest producer at 71 million tons [2] Group 3: Price and Cost Dynamics - The aluminum price increase benefits all electrolytic aluminum companies, with those having a high capacity-to-market value ratio showing greater potential for price appreciation [3] - Companies with alumina self-sufficiency above 100% can benefit from rising alumina prices, as it becomes an internalized cost, leading to increased sales profits [3] - Companies with high self-generated electricity ratios, like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum, are positioned to benefit from falling coal prices, while those with lower ratios face greater cost sensitivity [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for aluminum prices is positive, driven by a growing supply-demand gap and supportive global fiscal and monetary policies, with potential for significant profit expansion as costs remain low [5] - China Hongqiao, Yun Aluminum (000807), and Zhongfu Industrial (600595) are identified as companies with relatively high valuation elasticity, expected to rank among the top performers in 2025 with projected price increases of 177%, 134%, and 171% respectively [5]

Group 1 - International precious metals futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.48% and COMEX silver futures falling by 1.78% [1] - The non-ferrous sector benefits from the combination of "global monetary easing, rigid supply, and new demand," leading to increased interest in the "higher gold and copper content" Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which has attracted over 1.4 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days, bringing its total scale to over 6 billion yuan [1][4] Group 2 - A Danish pension fund plans to liquidate its U.S. Treasury holdings by the end of the month due to concerns over credit risk associated with U.S. policies, which has led to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to see strong performance in 2025, with companies in the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) projecting collective earnings growth, including a 120%-142% increase for Northern Rare Earth [4] Group 3 - The non-ferrous industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2026-2027 due to a combination of recovery cycles and supply constraints, with copper and aluminum prices anticipated to improve [5] - Global electrolytic copper supply is expected to remain limited in 2026, with demand driven by U.S. stockpiling and grid construction, potentially leading to a shift from surplus to shortage [6] Group 4 - Aluminum prices have been gradually increasing since the second half of 2025, with expectations of a supply growth rate of only 1.7% in 2026, resulting in a projected shortfall of over 800,000 tons [9] - Energy metals like lithium are expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026-2027, with prices likely to rise due to increased demand from energy storage batteries [12] Group 5 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a comprehensive layout across various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, capitalizing on the super cycle of non-ferrous metals [13] - The ETF has a leading copper content of 34% and gold content of 12%, with a high concentration of top holdings at 38% [15] Group 6 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has shown superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return leading its peers and a lower maximum drawdown, indicating a better investment experience [17] - The index's growth has been driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, with a current P/E ratio of 26.27, down 52% from five years ago, suggesting a favorable valuation [18]

Core Insights - The solar street light market in China is experiencing significant growth potential, transitioning from initial application to market promotion and scaling up towards intelligent upgrades, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand [1][11] Market Overview - The market size of China's solar street light industry is projected to grow from 291 million yuan in 2019 to 385 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.76% [1][12] - By 2025, the market size is expected to reach 407 million yuan [1] Industry Development - The solar street light industry has evolved from the 1970s, initially limited by low efficiency and storage capacity, to widespread application in urban and rural areas since the 21st century [7][11] - The production volume of solar street lights is forecasted to increase from 543,500 units in 2019 to 642,600 units in 2024, with a CAGR of 3.41% [11][12] - Sales volume is expected to rise from 458,200 units in 2019 to 571,000 units in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.5% [11][12] Technological Advancements - Continuous improvements in photovoltaic and storage technologies are leading to enhanced efficiency and cost optimization, facilitating the transition towards intelligent solar street lights [1][11] - The efficiency of single crystal PERC cells has surpassed 23%, and new battery technologies are emerging, significantly reducing initial investment costs and extending the lifespan of solar street lights [11] Industry Chain - The solar street light industry chain includes upstream raw material supply (solar panels, lithium batteries, LED lights), midstream manufacturing and assembly, and downstream applications in parks, squares, and urban roads [8][11] Key Players - Major companies in the solar street light industry include Qunshang Co., Ltd., Zhouming Technology, and Jiawei New Energy, among others [2][13] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of national brands and numerous regional manufacturers, with a shift towards comprehensive solutions that integrate smart control systems [13] Future Trends - The integration of smart management platforms and IoT technologies is expected to transform solar street lights into critical nodes for urban data collection and management [15] - Innovations in materials and storage technologies will drive performance improvements, with a focus on higher efficiency solar cells and advanced battery solutions [17] - Aesthetic design and scene-specific customization are becoming focal points for competition, moving beyond basic functionality to enhance visual appeal and environmental integration [18]