Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend of inventory reduction continues, driven by increased demand, and the aluminum price is expected to show stronger performance as inventory decreases [11] - The aluminum industry is anticipated to maintain high prosperity due to limited long-term supply growth and ongoing demand growth points [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of October 17, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,778.5 per ton, a week-on-week increase of $32.5 per ton, and a year-on-year increase of $191.0 per ton [24] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,910.0 yuan per ton, a week-on-week decrease of 70.0 yuan per ton, and a year-on-year increase of 320.0 yuan per ton [24] 2. Production - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.615 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 118,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 74,000 tons [56] - The alumina production in September 2025 was 7.604 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 135,000 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 38.3 million tons [56] 3. Inventory - As of October 16, the domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded 627,000 tons, a week-on-week reduction of 22,000 tons, indicating a potential return to the inventory reduction trend [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility in metal prices due to fluctuating tariff expectations and geopolitical factors, particularly affecting copper and aluminum prices [4][30]. - The precious metals sector is expected to benefit from increased central bank purchases, particularly gold, as the current pricing environment favors safety over yield [22]. - Industrial metals like copper are projected to see price increases due to stable demand from infrastructure investments and AI data centers, despite short-term tariff impacts [4][30]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.99% [5]. - The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 3.07%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.85 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 69.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 54.87 percentage points [5][8]. Price Changes - Precious metals saw significant price increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.76% and silver by 6.55% [4]. - Industrial metals experienced mixed results, with copper prices decreasing by 4.34% and aluminum by 1.19% [4][9]. - Lithium prices showed slight increases, while cobalt prices surged by 10.33% [4][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is expected to tighten due to production disruptions from incidents at major mines, with a projected 2.2% decrease in global copper supply [4][30]. - The aluminum sector is witnessing stable demand, with a shift towards peak consumption season anticipated [4][44]. - The steel industry is experiencing a decrease in production, while downstream demand is increasing, leading to a reduction in steel inventory [4][20]. Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the precious metals sector include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with varying price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating differing market expectations [19]. - In the industrial metals sector, companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted for their growth potential, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several key companies as investment opportunities [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that tariff uncertainties continue to disrupt the market, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have reached new highs [1][2]. - Industrial metal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions and optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, despite short-term volatility caused by tariffs [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to perform well due to strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3]. - Precious metals are benefiting from strong central bank purchases and high expectations for interest rate cuts, which are expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Tariff-induced short-term volatility is affecting copper prices, but supply disruptions are expected to support prices [2]. - Aluminum demand remains resilient, with a decrease in social inventory indicating a potential price stabilization [2][19]. - The report highlights key companies in the industrial metals sector, including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are rising due to new export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while lithium demand remains strong due to the growth of the electric vehicle market [3]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to strong demand from central banks and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Western Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Gold [3].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, with only four industries showing gains, notably banking and coal, which rose by 4.89% and 4.17% respectively [1] - The electronic and media sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 7.14% and 6.27% respectively [1] - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 301.74 billion yuan, with only two sectors seeing net inflows: banking (24.19 billion yuan) and coal (2.67 billion yuan) [1] Industry Performance - The banking sector had a weekly increase of 4.89% with a net inflow of 24.19 billion yuan [2] - The coal industry also performed well, increasing by 4.17% with a net inflow of 2.67 billion yuan [2] - The electronic industry faced the largest capital outflow, totaling 700.79 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with 416.92 billion yuan [2] Non-Metal Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 3.07% this week, with a net outflow of 326.17 billion yuan [2] - Within this sector, 30 out of 137 stocks increased, with notable gains from Xinlaifu (49.84%), Baiyin Nonferrous (28.54%), and Antai Technology (19.20%) [2] - Conversely, 107 stocks declined, with Jiangnan New Materials, Bowei Alloys, and Huaxi Nonferrous experiencing the largest drops of 15.31%, 13.34%, and 12.71% respectively [2] Capital Flow in Non-Ferrous Metals - In the non-ferrous metals sector, 15 stocks had net inflows, with China Aluminum leading at 2.12 billion yuan, followed by Shanjin International and Western Gold with 1.58 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively [3] - A total of 59 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with North Rare Earth, Ganfeng Lithium, and Zijin Mining seeing the largest outflows of 3.756 billion yuan, 2.747 billion yuan, and 2.100 billion yuan respectively [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a positive outlook for the industry from 2025 to 2031, with specific data on production volumes and growth rates [1]. Industry Summary - In April 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.76 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1]. - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of these metals totaled 26.6 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 2.3% [1]. - The report is based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics and is compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry research institution in China [1].

Core Insights - On October 17, China Aluminum conducted a block trade with a transaction volume of 580,000 shares and a transaction value of 4.9126 million yuan, at a price of 8.47 yuan per share [1] - The buyer was Ping An Securities Co., Ltd., and the seller was China International Capital Corporation [1] Trading Activity - In the last three months, China Aluminum has recorded a total of six block trades, amounting to a cumulative transaction value of 30.1571 million yuan [1] - The closing price of China Aluminum on the day of the trade was 8.47 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.51% [1] - The daily turnover rate was 2.13%, with a total trading volume of 2.408 billion yuan and a net outflow of main funds amounting to 34.1802 million yuan [1] Financing Data - The latest financing balance for China Aluminum is 3.373 billion yuan, with an increase of 64.1925 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 1.94% [1]

Group 1 - A new company, China Aluminum (Dalian) Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 3.17 billion yuan [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Cheng Tao, indicating a structured leadership [1] - The business scope includes non-ferrous metal rolling processing, common non-ferrous metal smelting, and new material technology research and development [1] Group 2 - The company is wholly owned by China Aluminum Corporation (stock code: 601600), reflecting a strategic expansion in the aluminum industry [1]

天眼查App显示，10月16日，中铝（大连）铝业有限公司成立，法定代表人为程涛，注册资本31.7亿人 民币，经营范围包括有色金属压延加工、常用有色金属冶炼、新材料技术研发等。股东信息显示，该公 司由中国铝业（601600）全资持股。 ...

Core Insights - Recently, China Aluminum (Dalian) Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 3.17 billion RMB [1] - The legal representative of the new company is Cheng Tao [1] - The company's business scope includes non-ferrous metal rolling processing, common non-ferrous metal smelting, and new material technology research and development [1] - China Aluminum holds 100% ownership of the newly established company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations in stock performance, with significant movements in the ETF market and new regulatory measures enhancing the strategic value of rare earth elements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 17, 2025, the China Rare Earth Industry Index decreased by 0.08%, with stocks showing mixed results; Shengxin Lithium Energy led with a 6.22% increase, while Galaxy Magnetic Materials saw the largest decline [1]. - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest (516150) is showing positive momentum, with a trading volume of 3.99 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 3.7% [2]. - The latest scale of the Harvest Rare Earth ETF reached 106.63 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [2]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The Harvest Rare Earth ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past five days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.184 billion yuan, totaling 2.985 billion yuan [2]. - Over the past year, the net value of the Harvest Rare Earth ETF has increased by 96.96%, ranking 8th out of 3069 index equity funds, placing it in the top 0.26% [2]. - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 41.25% and an average monthly return of 10.78% during rising months [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth-related technologies highlight the strategic importance of rare earths [2]. - The release of four policy documents aims to strengthen the management of the rare earth industry, including stricter controls on processing equipment and raw materials [3]. - New regulations expand the scope of export controls to include additional rare earth elements and require export licenses for products containing Chinese-origin rare earth materials [3].