保险行业 超配（维持） 负债端转型提速，资产端乘势慢牛 保险行业深度报告 2025 年 8 月 28 日 投资要点： ◼ 行情复盘：年初至今A股险企实现全线上涨。今年年初至8月15日，保险 板块行情呈现波动上涨的特征，申万保险指数上涨17.88%，跑赢沪深300 指数7.88个百分点，A股险企实现全线上涨。保险行情主要由负债端压 力缓解、政策红利释放以及板块强β属性推动。 ◼ 负债端：险企全面转型分红险，看好银保业务增长潜力。在产品切换维 度，预定利率下调加速分红险转型进程，险资全面聚焦分红险布局，助 力险企稳定保费规模、优化负债成本。渠道结构维度，代理人规模继续 收缩，行业聚焦队伍质态提升，推动代理人渠道向精英化、专业化转型， 强化高价值业务深耕能力。与此同时，银保渠道废止"一对三"合作限 制，市场竞争充分化，头部险企加速布局银行网点资源，逐步复苏，凭 借银行网点资源、客户触达优势，成为险企保费增长新引擎，为规模与 价值增长注入动力。 ◼ 资产端："慢牛"渐成共识，险资权益收益弹性释放资产端："慢牛" 渐成共识，险资权益收益弹性释放。保险资金规模快速增长，在"慢牛" 行情与中长期入市政策推动下，权益投资比例 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日保险板块主力资金净流出3.56亿元，游资资金净流入1.19亿元，散户资金净流入 2.37亿元。保险板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601319 中国人保 | | 4868.47万 | 5.49% | 1812.38万 | 2.04% | -6680.86万 | -7.54% | | 601628 中国人寿 | | -5101.96万 | -4.73% | 5108.35万 | 4.74% | -6.39万 | -0.01% | | 601601 中国太保 | | -8045.81万 | -7.31% | 2581.18万 | 2.34% | 5464.63万 | 4.96% | | 601318 中国平安 | | -1.26亿 | -3.36% | 1861.92万 | 0.50% | 1.07亿 | 2.87% | | 601336 新华保险 | ...

Core Insights - China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) has been actively involved in supporting the economic development and social welfare in Tibet, providing risk coverage and financial services tailored to local needs [2][3][4] Group 1: Emergency Response and Claims - Following an earthquake, CPIC's Tibet branch quickly mobilized to assess damage to a power station, ensuring rapid claims processing with a payout of 3.17 million yuan [1] - The company established a green channel for claims, simplifying procedures to expedite support for affected infrastructure [1] Group 2: Financial Support and Risk Coverage - CPIC has provided approximately 2.3 billion yuan in risk coverage to support key infrastructure projects in Tibet, including the Sichuan-Tibet Railway and other major initiatives [2] - The company has launched various inclusive financial products aimed at small and micro enterprises, addressing previously uncovered risks in the region [2] Group 3: Agricultural Insurance and Support - CPIC has developed innovative insurance products tailored to the unique characteristics of the Tibetan economy, particularly in livestock and agriculture [3] - The company has provided risk coverage for over 35 billion yuan in agricultural insurance, including policies for yaks and barley fields [3] Group 4: Future Commitment - CPIC plans to continue injecting financial resources into the development of Tibet, reinforcing its commitment to local economic growth and stability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - In July, the life insurance premium growth rate significantly increased, while the property insurance business remained stable [1] - The life insurance companies' original premium income for the first seven months of 2025 reached 33,203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a total premium income of 37,498 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates a shift towards dividend insurance products following adjustments in the preset interest rates, indicating a positive outlook for the industry's liability cost optimization [4] - The health insurance premium in July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, marking a return to positive growth [4] - The property insurance companies' premium income for the first seven months of 2025 was 10,933 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [4] - The report highlights that the market's savings demand remains strong, and the liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure from interest rate differentials [4] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - July's single-month life insurance premium reached 3,447 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, with a notable acceleration from June's growth [4] - The new investment contributions from policyholders showed a year-on-year decrease of 1% for the first seven months, but July saw a significant increase of 21% [4] Health Insurance - The health insurance premium for July was 2.6% higher year-on-year, reversing the negative trend observed in June [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term growth in health insurance through the integration of various health-related services [4] Property Insurance - The property insurance premium for July increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with non-auto insurance business showing improved growth [4] - The report notes that the growth in non-auto insurance premiums was driven by health insurance, with specific segments like health and accident insurance showing substantial increases [4] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the valuation of the insurance sector remains at historical lows, with expected valuations for 2025 ranging from 0.64 to 0.95 times PEV and 1.10 to 2.24 times PB [4] - The report concludes that the leading insurance companies are likely to maintain robust growth and profitability, particularly in the context of ongoing reforms [4]

从资金流向上来看，当日保险板块主力资金净流出15.62亿元，游资资金净流入3.48亿元，散户资金净流 入12.14亿元。保险板块个股资金流向见下表： 证券之星消息，8月27日保险板块较上一交易日下跌2.74%，新华保险领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3800.35，下跌1.76%。深证成指报收于12295.07，下跌1.43%。保险板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601628 | 中国人寿 | 41.66 | -2.46% | 25.08万 | | 10.56 Z | | 601319 | 中国人保 | 8.52 | -2.52% | 86.53万 | | 7.45亿 | | 601601 | 中国太保 | 39.74 | -2.88% | 34.49万 | | 13.83亿 | | 601318 | 中国平安 | 58.69 | -3.02% | 106.46万 | | 63.25 7 | | 601336 | 新华保险 | 63.75 | -3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector is experiencing a decline in stock prices, with major companies like New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life seeing significant drops in their share prices, indicating market concerns about the sector's performance [1][1][1] Company Performance - China Ping An reported a year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, but operating profit showed a year-on-year increase, attributed to three main factors: one-time accounting adjustments, issuance of convertible bonds, and unrealized gains from investments in listed companies not reflected in the profit statement [1][1][1] - The CFO of China Ping An suggested that the market should focus more on operating profit metrics rather than net profit figures [1][1][1] Market Trends - Longcheng Securities noted that the ten-year government bond yield has risen to around 1.78%, influenced by policies related to capacity reduction and market fluctuations in the insurance sector [1][1][1] - According to a recent survey by the Insurance Asset Management Association, stocks are the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [1][1][1] - The insurance sector is viewed with cautious optimism regarding its allocation value despite the high volatility observed [1][1][1]

Group 1 - Insurance capital is increasingly involved in equity markets, with 14 insurance institutions making 26 stake acquisitions in 2024, the highest since 2016, covering 21 listed companies, 17 of which are Hong Kong stocks [1][2][53] - The insurance industry is experiencing upward momentum, with total assets reaching 39.22 trillion yuan as of June 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.08%, and cumulative premium income rising from 1.45 trillion yuan in 2010 to 5.70 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.15% [1][5][53] - Market activity is recovering, with average daily trading volume in the past year reaching 1.50 trillion yuan, a ten-year high, and margin trading balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan, supporting the performance recovery of non-bank financial institutions [1][7][12] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index (931028.CSI) was launched on November 6, 2017, selecting up to 50 eligible Hong Kong stocks based on free float market capitalization, with a concentration in insurance (64.45%), securities (15.23%), and diversified finance (14.44%) [15][20][55] - The index's valuation is currently at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.61 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24, indicating a rapid recovery phase [26][55] - The index has shown strong performance in rebound phases after market downturns, with an annualized return of 8.52% since its inception, outperforming major broad-based indices [37][40] Group 3 - The GF CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF (513750) is the only ETF tracking the Hong Kong non-bank index, with a scale of 182.54 billion yuan as of August 20, 2025, reflecting significant growth since its launch [44][56] - GF Fund Management Co., Ltd. has a total asset management scale exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan as of the end of 2024, managing 64 ETFs with a total scale of 227.3 billion yuan as of August 20, 2025 [51][56]

- The "China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index" (931028.CSI) was launched on November 6, 2017, selecting up to 50 eligible stocks from the Hong Kong Stock Connect scope that align with the non-bank financial theme, using free-float market capitalization weighting with restrictions on individual sample weights (no more than 15%) and the top five sample weights combined (no more than 60%) [4][26][68] - The index is heavily concentrated in the insurance, securities, and diversified financial sectors, with weights of 64.45%, 15.23%, and 14.44%, respectively. The diversified financial sector is primarily contributed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4][29][68] - The index's constituent stocks span a wide range of market capitalizations, with an average market cap of 1,718.74 billion yuan as of August 20, 2025. It includes 16 stocks with market caps exceeding 1,000 billion yuan, and stocks with market caps above 5,000 billion yuan account for 51.49% of the index weight [30][33][68] - The index valuation is at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.61 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24 as of August 20, 2025, showing a rapid recovery trend [35][36][68] - The index demonstrates strong profitability, with 12 constituent stocks having trailing twelve-month net profits exceeding 100 billion yuan, accounting for 81.73% of the index weight [39][41][68] - The top ten heavyweights in the index account for approximately 78.19% of the total weight, with the top three (Ping An Insurance, AIA, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange) contributing 41.94%. These include six A/H dual-listed stocks and other high-quality non-bank financial companies exclusively listed in Hong Kong [42][44][68] - Among the 36 constituent stocks, 19 are A/H dual-listed stocks with an average A/H premium rate of 59.50%, indicating higher relative value on the Hong Kong side [43][45][68] - Since its inception on November 14, 2014, the index has achieved an annualized return of 8.52%, annualized volatility of 27.07%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.41, outperforming major broad-based indices in terms of risk-adjusted returns. During rebound periods following significant market declines, the index has shown strong upward momentum [47][48][50]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 非银行金融行业数据周报（20250818-20250822） 推荐（维持） 交投活跃度持续上行 推荐顺序：广发、国泰海通、中金 H、中信、华泰、东财，建议关注：银河 H、华林、湘财、建投 H。 推荐顺序：中国太保 H、中国人寿 H、中国平安 H，建议关注：中国人保 H、 中国财险. 风险提示：经济下行压力加大、创新改革节奏低于预期、利率较大波动。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 中国太保 | 41.57 | 4.87 | 4.99 | 5.10 | 8.53 | 8.34 | 8.16 | 1.21 | 推荐 | | 中国人寿 | 42.86 | 3.09 | 3.19 | 3.25 | 13.86 | 13.46 | ...

三、请中国太平洋人寿保险股份有限公司持此批复和中国太平洋人寿保险股份有限公司张北支公司的保 险许可证到国家金融监督管理总局张家口监管分局办理有关换证手续，并按照《银行保险机构许可证管 理办法》的规定办理有关公告事宜。 2025年8月20日，国家金融监督管理总局张家口监管分局发布批复称，《关于中国太平洋人寿保险股份 有限公司张北支公司变更营业场所的请示》（冀太保寿〔2025〕183号）收悉。经审查，批复如下： 一、同意中国太平洋人寿保险股份有限公司张北支公司营业场所由"河北省张家口市张北宏怡嘉苑住宅 小区A29幢商业06号"变更为"河北省张家口市张北县张北镇尚品乐居小区3幢1单元商铺101室、201 室"。 此复。 二、变更营业场所后，中国太平洋人寿保险股份有限公司张北支公司不得在原营业场所办理业务。 ...