Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price yet to be specified [9] Core Views - The bank's revenue shows signs of improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.50% in H1 2025, and a sequential growth acceleration of 1.57 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2][14] - Net interest margin is expected to stabilize, recorded at 1.7% in H1 2025, slightly down from Q1 2025 [2][16] - The bank's non-interest income has significantly increased, with net fee and commission income rising by 11.59% year-on-year [3][24] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for H1 2025 reached approximately 1794.46 billion yuan, with net interest income at 1390.58 billion yuan, accounting for 77.49% of total revenue [2][14] - Non-interest income for H1 2025 was 403.88 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 19.09% [3][24] - The bank's total interest-earning assets amounted to 17.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.83% [4][24] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.92%, with a provision coverage ratio of 260% [5][29] Asset and Liability Analysis - As of H1 2025, the bank's interest-bearing liabilities totaled 16.92 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.59% [4][28] - The structure of liabilities shows that deposits accounted for 95.21% of total interest-bearing liabilities, with a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [4][28] - The bank's loan portfolio has seen significant growth, particularly in corporate loans, which increased by 18.62% year-on-year [24][25] Provisioning and Asset Quality - The bank maintains a high level of provisioning, with a loan provision rate of 2.39% and a coverage ratio of 260.4% [5][29] - The overall NPL rate for corporate loans improved to 0.49%, while retail loans saw a slight increase to 1.53% [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate consumer spending and support the retail credit market, with banks actively participating in the program and developing systems to facilitate the process [1][2][6]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy officially started on September 1, with participating banks accepting applications for the subsidy [1]. - The subsidy covers consumption loans under 50,000 yuan and key areas such as home purchases, elderly care, and education [1]. - Different banks have varying operational details regarding application channels and eligibility criteria, including whether existing loans prior to September 1 qualify for the subsidy [1][5]. Group 2: Technical Integration - Banks are utilizing technology to streamline the subsidy process, with some institutions directly deducting the subsidy from loan interest payments [2][5]. - The maximum cumulative subsidy for each borrower is set at 3,000 yuan, corresponding to a total consumption amount of 300,000 yuan during the policy period [2]. Group 3: Market Impact - Bank executives express optimism about the positive impact of the subsidy policy on retail credit growth, with expectations of stable growth in personal consumption and business loans [6]. - The subsidy is anticipated to enhance the leverage effect of funds, potentially increasing the lending capacity of state-owned and joint-stock banks [6]. Group 4: Risk Considerations - Credit card installment plans are explicitly excluded from the subsidy program [7]. - Concerns regarding rising risks in retail credit are noted, with banks monitoring credit card risk as a leading indicator for overall retail credit risk [8]. - Banks have issued warnings against misuse of personal consumption loans, stating that violations may result in the denial or recovery of subsidies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The credit card sector in China is experiencing a significant decline, with various metrics such as credit card loan balances, transaction volumes, and the number of active cards showing downward trends, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Credit Card Loan Balances - The total credit card loan balance of 14 major banks reached 7.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 197.57 billion yuan or 2.56% compared to the beginning of the year, with 11 banks reporting a decline [1][2]. - China Bank reported the largest decrease in credit card loans, down 13.88% to 522.50 billion yuan, while other banks like Ping An Bank and Industrial Bank saw reductions of 9.23% and 8.07%, respectively [2]. Credit Card Transaction Volumes - The total credit card transaction amount for 12 banks was 11.47 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.05%, equivalent to a drop of 1.42 trillion yuan [2]. - The highest decline in transaction volumes was observed in China Bank and Everbright Bank, both exceeding 18%, while Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank experienced declines of around 5% [2]. Credit Card Circulation - The total number of circulating credit cards among 10 banks was 890 million, a decrease of 3.91 million cards compared to the previous year [3]. - Ping An Bank saw a net reduction of 6.26 million cards, a decline of 12%, while other banks like Industrial and Traffic Banks also reported significant reductions [3]. Credit Card Business Revenue - Credit card business revenue for several banks is in decline, with only four banks disclosing figures. For instance, China Merchants Bank reported a 4.96% drop in interest income and a 16.23% decrease in non-interest income [4][5]. - Other banks like Citic Bank and Everbright Bank experienced double-digit declines in credit card business revenue, with reductions of 14.61% and 21.3%, respectively [5]. Credit Card Non-Performing Loans - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for credit cards is on the rise for most banks, with Traffic Bank's NPL ratio increasing by 0.63 percentage points [6]. - As of mid-2025, China Merchants Bank maintained a stable NPL ratio of 1.75%, while Postal Savings Bank and Agricultural Bank reported lower ratios around 1.5% [6]. Changing Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer attitudes towards credit cards, with many individuals opting to cancel excess cards, reflecting a trend towards minimalism in card ownership [7]. - Users are expressing dissatisfaction with the reduced benefits of credit cards, leading to a more selective approach in maintaining only essential cards [7]. Industry Outlook - Despite the overall contraction in the credit card market, there is potential for quality improvement and differentiation among banks, focusing on high-end customer needs and basic customer demands [8]. - Banks are actively pursuing differentiated strategies, such as promotional activities and product innovations aimed at enhancing customer engagement and satisfaction [8].

Core Viewpoint - The listed banks in China have shown strong performance in the first half of the year and are preparing to reward investors with significant mid-term dividends, reflecting their profitability and commitment to shareholder returns [2][4]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - Among the 42 listed banks in A-shares, nearly half will implement mid-term dividends for 2025, with 17 banks already disclosing their plans, totaling 237.54 billion yuan [2]. - The six major state-owned banks lead in dividend distribution, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at the forefront, distributing 50.396 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China with 48.605 billion yuan and 41.823 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The total dividends from the six major state-owned banks account for 86% of the total dividends announced by the 17 banks [2]. Group 2: Specific Bank Plans - Among joint-stock banks, CITIC Bank, Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank, and Huaxia Bank have announced their mid-term dividend plans, with CITIC Bank proposing a total of 10.461 billion yuan [3]. - In the city and rural commercial banks, seven banks have announced mid-term dividends, including Ningbo Bank and Shanghai Bank, with Shanghai Bank proposing a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares [3]. - Four banks have a dividend payout ratio exceeding 30%, including Shanghai Bank and Postal Savings Bank, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - The expansion of banks implementing mid-term dividends and their willingness to distribute reflects the resilience of the banking sector's profitability and a positive response to shareholder return demands [4]. - This trend indicates improved cash flow and capital management capabilities among certain banks, which may help boost market confidence and attract long-term value investors [4].

Core Insights - The six major state-owned banks in China have released their mid-year performance reports for 2025, showing a strong focus on technology finance through various channels including loans, bonds, and equity investments [1] Group 1: Technology Loan Growth - As of June 2023, several state-owned banks reported double-digit growth in technology loan balances compared to the end of 2024, significantly outpacing average loan growth [2] - Five major banks have technology loan balances exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) leading at over 6 trillion yuan, a 20% increase from 2024 [2] - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) also showed substantial growth, with ABC's technology loan balance reaching 4.69 trillion yuan (21% increase) and CCB's at 5.15 trillion yuan (16.81% increase) [2] Group 2: Bond Issuance and Equity Investments - In the bond market, ICBC led the issuance of technology innovation bonds, with a maximum single issuance of 20 billion yuan and a total underwriting scale of nearly 50 billion yuan [3] - Other banks like CCB and ABC successfully issued 30 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, supporting technological innovation [3] - State-owned banks are actively establishing AIC (Asset Investment Company) equity investment pilot funds, with ICBC signing agreements for over 150 billion yuan in fund intentions [3] Group 3: Optimization of Service Ecosystem - State-owned banks are optimizing their technology finance service ecosystems through organizational restructuring, innovative product offerings, and enhanced resource collaboration [4] - ICBC has established a multi-tiered organizational structure for technology finance, while ABC has launched specialized online products like "Kejie Loan" [4] - The banks are focusing on creating a comprehensive service system that integrates various financial products to support technology enterprises [4] Group 4: Future Trends in Technology Finance - Experts predict that technology finance will continue to grow, with a focus on "hard technology" sectors, accelerated digital transformation, and the evolution of banks from mere fund providers to ecosystem builders [6][7] - The development of a comprehensive technology finance ecosystem is expected to enhance support for innovative enterprises and facilitate the transition to an innovation-driven economy [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) demonstrates strong financial performance with a net interest margin of 1.70% and a five-year average ROE of 11.26%, exceeding industry averages, indicating robust operational efficiency and growth potential [1][7]. Financial Performance - As of June 2025, PSBC's total assets reached 18.19 trillion yuan, a 6.47% increase from the previous year, while total liabilities grew by 6.21% to 17.05 trillion yuan [4]. - The bank reported operating income of 1794.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.50%, and net profit of 494.15 billion yuan, up 1.08% [1]. - Public loans increased by 5410.98 billion yuan, representing a growth of 14.83%, with a year-on-year increase of 2229.24 billion yuan [4]. Net Interest Margin - PSBC's net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.70%, a decrease of 17 basis points from 2024, primarily due to one-time factors affecting loan yields [2]. - The bank's self-operated deposits increased by 1300 billion yuan year-on-year, with the interest rate on these deposits declining to approximately 1.1% [3]. Loan Growth and Quality - The bank's credit growth rate of 10.1% in the first half of 2025 outpaced the industry average of 7.1%, with a focus on maintaining a balanced approach to loan volume and pricing [5]. - The overall non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.49%, a decrease of 5 basis points from the previous year [5]. Strategic Initiatives - PSBC aims to enhance capital efficiency and diversify income sources, with non-interest income increasing by 10 percentage points over the past five years [7]. - The bank is implementing a centralized approval process for retail loans to improve risk management and operational efficiency [8]. Operational Efficiency - The bank has initiated ten projects to promote a modern, centralized operational model, with five already implemented nationwide, significantly reducing operational costs [9]. - The cost-to-income ratio decreased by 5.15% in the first half of 2025, reflecting improved management efficiency [9].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Asset Investment Companies (AIC) is gaining momentum among Chinese banks, with notable developments from banks like CITIC Bank and Postal Savings Bank, indicating a shift in the banking sector towards new investment opportunities and strategies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Developments in AIC Establishment - In March 2025, regulatory authorities announced further support for national banks to establish AICs, leading to responses from several banks including CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank [1]. - CITIC Bank announced plans to fully establish a financial asset investment subsidiary, receiving approval from the National Financial Supervision Administration for the establishment of Xinyin Financial Asset Investment Co., with a registered capital of RMB 10 billion [1]. - The headquarters of Xinyin Financial Asset Investment Co. is expected to be in Guangzhou, chosen for its significance in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its vibrant tech enterprise ecosystem [1]. Group 2: Differing Attitudes Among Banks - There is a divide among banks regarding the establishment of AICs, with some banks like CITIC, Industrial, and China Merchants Bank officially moving forward, while others remain cautious and are observing the outcomes of these early adopters [3][4]. - Postal Savings Bank is actively pursuing the establishment of its own AIC, planning to invest RMB 10 billion, but has not yet received approval for its establishment [3][4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Challenges - The market generally views the expansion of AIC licenses from state-owned banks to joint-stock banks positively, anticipating new business opportunities distinct from traditional lending [5]. - Despite optimism, banks with existing AIC licenses are prioritizing stability and risk management, facing challenges such as limited exit channels for equity investments [5][6]. - The current IPO environment poses difficulties for banks seeking to realize returns on equity investments, leading to a cautious approach among smaller banks regarding AIC establishment [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The overall performance of state-owned banks in the first half of 2025 shows improved revenue and profit growth, driven by significant increases in non-interest income and cost reductions. The net interest income growth has also shown a marginal upward trend [8][14] - The asset quality of state-owned banks remains strong, with non-performing loan ratios stable or declining, and the provision coverage ratio increasing, enhancing the banks' risk resilience [8][14] - The investment logic for bank stocks has shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will be attractive [8][14] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Performance - In 1H25, the overall revenue of state-owned banks increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with a turnaround from negative to positive growth compared to the previous quarter [11][13] - The net profit for the same period decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous quarter [14][15] 2. Income Breakdown - Net interest income showed a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, while non-interest income grew by 15.5%, with both metrics improving quarter-on-quarter [18][19] - The growth in net interest income was supported by an increase in interest-earning assets, which rose by 10.4% year-on-year [18][19] 3. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.27%, with a slight improvement in the attention loan ratio [8][14] - The provision coverage ratio increased by 1.04 percentage points to 237.50%, further enhancing the safety margin [8][14] 4. Other Financial Indicators - The cost-to-income ratio decreased year-on-year, while the capital adequacy ratio for major banks improved, indicating a solid capital position [8][14] - The report highlights two main investment themes: regional banks with strong advantages and high dividend yields from large banks [8][14]

Core Insights - The six major state-owned banks in China demonstrated strong operational resilience amid the pressure of narrowing net interest margins, achieving a steady expansion in asset scale and a significant increase in non-interest income during the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - The total assets of the six banks increased, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) leading at 52.32 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [2]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) followed with 46.86 trillion yuan, up 8.37%, and China Construction Bank (CCB) at 44.43 trillion yuan, up 9.52% [2]. - In terms of revenue, all six banks reported year-on-year growth, with China Bank leading at a 3.76% increase, while the others had growth rates ranging from 0.77% to 2.15% [3]. Profitability - Agricultural Bank of China reported the fastest profit growth with a net profit of 139.51 billion yuan, up 2.66% year-on-year [3][4]. - In contrast, ICBC, CCB, and China Bank experienced declines in net profit, with ICBC's net profit at 168.10 billion yuan, down 1.39% [3][4]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remained stable, with ICBC and CCB reporting a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33%, a slight decrease from the previous year [7]. - Postal Savings Bank had the lowest NPL ratio at 0.92%, although it increased by 0.02 percentage points [7][8]. Non-Interest Income - The banks actively adjusted their business structures to enhance non-interest income, with significant growth observed across most banks [9][10]. - China Bank's non-interest income rose by 26.43% to 114.19 billion yuan, increasing its share of total revenue from 28.48% to 34.71% [9][10]. Future Outlook - The banks expressed cautious optimism regarding the future trajectory of net interest margins, with strategies in place to optimize asset-liability structures and enhance high-yield asset proportions [12][13]. - A total dividend plan exceeding 200 billion yuan was announced, reflecting confidence in future performance despite ongoing challenges [13].

Core Viewpoint - The six major state-owned banks in China demonstrated strong operational resilience in the face of narrowing net interest margins, achieving steady asset growth and a significant increase in non-interest income during the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total operating income of the six major banks reached approximately 1.83 trillion yuan, showing positive year-on-year growth [1]. - By the end of June 2025, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) led the industry with total assets of 52.32 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase from the previous year [2]. - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) followed with 46.86 trillion yuan, up 8.37%, and China Construction Bank (CCB) with 44.43 trillion yuan, up 9.52% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders showed divergence, with ABC reporting the fastest growth at 1,395.1 billion yuan, a 2.66% increase [3][4]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin - All six banks experienced a decline in net interest margin, but with signs of marginal improvement [6][7]. - The net interest margin for Postal Savings Bank dropped significantly to 1.7%, down 0.17 percentage points from the end of 2024 [7]. - ICBC's net profit decreased by 1.39% to 1,681.03 billion yuan, while CCB and Bank of China also reported declines [3][4]. Group 3: Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remained stable, with ICBC and CCB reporting a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33%, a slight decrease from the previous year [7][8]. - The NPL ratio for Bank of China was 1.24%, also showing a decrease [7][8]. Group 4: Non-Interest Income - The banks actively adjusted their business structures to increase non-interest income, achieving notable results [10]. - Bank of China reported a 26.43% increase in non-interest income, reaching 1141.87 billion yuan, with its share of total operating income rising from 28.48% to 34.71% [12][13]. - ICBC's non-interest income grew by 6.5% to 1135.16 billion yuan, increasing its share of total income to 26.58% [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The banks expressed cautious optimism regarding the future trajectory of net interest margins, with strategies in place to optimize asset-liability structures and enhance income from non-interest sources [14][15]. - The total dividend payout plan for the six banks exceeded 200 billion yuan, indicating confidence in their financial stability [15].