Core Insights - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start its full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, implementing a policy characterized by "one line open, one line controlled, and free within the island" to promote higher levels of openness [1] - The duty-free shopping policy in Hainan, launched in April 2011, has continuously evolved alongside the Free Trade Port construction, reshaping the consumption landscape in Hainan [1][2] - China Duty Free Group (CDFG), a subsidiary of China Tourism Group, plays a crucial role in the implementation of Hainan's duty-free policy, driving the development of a diverse and innovative "duty-free+" ecosystem [1][4] Policy Evolution and Market Impact - The Hainan duty-free policy has undergone multiple iterations since its inception, expanding beyond a single shopping scenario to meet diverse traveler needs and integrating deeply into Hainan's cultural tourism industry [2][4] - In November 2025, the new duty-free policy led to a significant increase in sales, with duty-free shopping amounting to 2.38 billion yuan in the first month, a year-on-year increase of 27.1% [2] - CDFG has actively responded to policy changes, enhancing service and innovation to support consumption and enrich the shopping experience [2][4] Infrastructure and Sales Performance - CDFG's Sanya International Duty-Free City has achieved cumulative sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, becoming the first duty-free store in Hainan to reach this milestone [5] - The CDF Haikou International Duty-Free City, with a total construction area of 280,000 square meters, is recognized as the world's largest single duty-free store [4][5] - CDFG has established a comprehensive duty-free ecosystem across six stores in Hainan, covering the entire consumer journey from arrival to departure [4][5] Consumer Experience and Engagement - The consumption narrative in Hainan's duty-free market has been restructured, with a notable shift towards younger consumers and a focus on experiential shopping [6][7] - CDFG has integrated cultural tourism into the shopping experience, creating immersive environments and hosting various themed events to enhance consumer engagement [7][9] - The company has implemented a full-service mechanism covering pre-sale, sale, and post-sale processes, significantly improving customer satisfaction [9][10] Brand and Product Strategy - CDFG is expanding its brand portfolio by introducing first stores and exclusive products, responding to consumer trends and enhancing the uniqueness of its offerings [11][13] - The company has hosted events like the fifth CDF Watch Festival, featuring over 50 global watch brands, including many first-time entrants to Hainan [13] - CDFG is also focusing on the silver economy by developing products and services tailored for older consumers, enhancing their shopping experience [13][14] Future Outlook - With the ongoing development of Hainan Free Trade Port and the continuous release of duty-free policy benefits, Hainan is set to enter a new chapter in its construction as an international tourism consumption center [14] - CDFG aims to deepen its "product + scene + service" innovation model, stimulating consumption vitality and contributing to the robust development of Hainan's duty-free market [14]

Group 1 - The duty-free store concept index rose by 1.44%, ranking first among concept sectors, with 17 stocks increasing, including Eurasia Group and Guangbai Co., which hit the daily limit [1][2] - Notable gainers in the duty-free sector included Dongbai Group, Dazhong Co., and Haikong Group, which rose by 7.32%, 5.52%, and 4.23% respectively [1] - The stocks with the largest declines included Hainan Development, Caesar Travel, and ST Huayang, which fell by 4.98%, 3.02%, and 2.87% respectively [1] Group 2 - The duty-free store sector experienced a net outflow of 190 million yuan in main funds, with 10 stocks receiving net inflows [3] - Guangbai Co. led the net inflow with 148 million yuan, followed by Eurasia Group, China Duty Free, and Dazhong Co. with net inflows of 70.24 million yuan, 32.06 million yuan, and 17.18 million yuan respectively [3] - The net inflow ratios for Eurasia Group, Guangbai Co., and Dazhong Co. were 47.30%, 22.01%, and 3.86% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The recent bidding results for duty-free projects at Shanghai airports indicate a new competitive landscape, with international retailers regaining operational rights in China after 1999. The expected annual passenger throughput for the two terminals at Pudong Airport is 80 million, with the bidding results showing a decrease in commission rates [2][19] - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference emphasized the retail sector as a foundational industry for the national economy, encouraging companies to accelerate transformation and focus on high-quality development [3] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The bidding results for duty-free operations at Shanghai airports have led to a significant shift in the competitive landscape, with China Duty Free Group (CDFG) and Dufry winning key contracts. The commission rates for the new contracts are lower than previous agreements, which may enhance profitability for operators [1][2][19] - Walmart has transitioned from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, marking a strategic shift towards being perceived as a technology-driven company rather than a traditional retail stock. This move is seen as a response to the evolving retail landscape and the increasing importance of technology and AI [21] Macro & Industry Data - In October, the total retail sales reached 4.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.0%, indicating a slight acceleration in consumer spending [39][40] - The online retail growth rate has slowed, while new retail formats continue to grow rapidly. For the first ten months, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with new retail formats like warehouse membership stores and unmanned stores showing double-digit growth [40] Investment Recommendations - Five investment themes are suggested: 1. Continuous upgrades in AI technology, benefiting companies like Keri International and Focus Technology [7] 2. Increased consumer willingness to pay for emotional value, with high-growth potential in new retail sectors [7] 3. Recovery of cyclical sectors under the backdrop of domestic demand stimulation, with companies like Haidilao and Yum China expected to benefit [7] 4. Expanding opportunities for domestic brands going overseas, with a focus on service providers and strong product offerings [7] 5. Revitalization of traditional formats as offline traffic returns, benefiting companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [7]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55% on December 15, with 13 industries rising, led by non-bank financials and retail, which increased by 1.59% and 1.49% respectively [1] - The defense and military industry saw the largest net inflow of funds, totaling 2.287 billion yuan, while the electronic industry experienced the largest net outflow of 16.331 billion yuan [1] Industry Summary - The retail industry rose by 1.49% with a net inflow of 955 million yuan, comprising 97 stocks, of which 75 rose and 21 fell [2] - Notable stocks in the retail sector included Hongqi Lianhuo, which saw a net inflow of 206 million yuan, followed by Central Plaza and Guangbai Co., with net inflows of 127 million yuan and 117 million yuan respectively [2] - The retail sector had 13 stocks with net outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, with Yonghui Supermarket, China Duty Free, and Guolian Co. leading the outflows at 57.602 million yuan, 40.624 million yuan, and 25.257 million yuan respectively [2][5] Fund Flow Analysis - The defense and military industry had a net inflow of 2.287 billion yuan, while the food and beverage sector followed with a net inflow of 1.124 billion yuan [1] - The electronic industry led the outflows with a net outflow of 16.331 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with 5.919 billion yuan [1] - The retail sector's top stocks by fund flow included Hongqi Lianhuo, Central Plaza, and Guangbai Co., with significant trading volumes and price increases [2][3]

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 0.28% compared to the previous trading day, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3867.92, down 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13112.09, down 1.1% [1] - A detailed table of individual stock performance in the tourism retail sector is provided [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital flow, the tourism retail sector experienced a net outflow of 26.01 million yuan from main funds, and a net outflow of 19.51 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 45.52 million yuan [2] - A detailed table of capital flow for individual stocks in the tourism retail sector is included [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Duty Free Group is capitalizing on key traffic in Beijing and Shanghai while continuously expanding its domestic and international segments, with signs of recovery in consumer spending in Hainan [1] - The company is making ongoing investments in value creation within core business districts, preparing for significant growth in the retail industry following the full closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1] - Recent policy developments are expected to boost consumption and provide a strategic foundation for domestic brands to expand internationally, with the company's active layout in city duty-free stores showing promising potential for continued realization [1] Group 2 - The article notes that all consumer categories in China are working to standardize tax regulations, which enhances the relative advantages of the duty-free channels in which the company operates, positioning it well to capture key traffic [1] - Future development opportunities for the company are anticipated to be promising, with current stock prices reflecting price-to-earnings ratios of 40X, 32X, and 26X, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful bid for the duty-free operations at Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports has been awarded to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free Group) in partnership with Avolta's Shanghai Dufurui Trading Co., marking a significant shift in the airport's duty-free retail landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Bidding Results - The first candidate for the duty-free store at Pudong International Airport's T1 terminal and S1 satellite hall is Dufurui (Shanghai) Commercial Co., with China Duty Free Group as the second candidate [2]. - For Pudong Airport's T2 terminal and S2 satellite hall, the first and second candidates are China Duty Free Group and Dufurui, respectively [2]. - At Hongqiao International Airport's T1 terminal, the first and second candidates are China Duty Free Group and Dufurui [2]. Group 2: Operational Changes - The current operator, Sunrise Duty Free, will exit the Shanghai airport duty-free market after 26 years due to restrictions from its controlling shareholder, China Duty Free Group [1]. - The bidding results indicate that the duty-free business at Pudong Airport will not allow for dual operations, meaning each winning bidder will manage one terminal's duty-free operations [2]. Group 3: Fee Structure Adjustments - The fee structure for the duty-free operations will shift from a "no ceiling on sales" model to a "minimum rent plus commission" model [3]. - The first candidate for the first segment, Dufurui, quoted a monthly fixed fee of 3141 yuan per square meter, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 24% [3]. - The second candidate, China Duty Free Group, quoted a monthly fixed fee of 3090 yuan per square meter, with similar commission rates [3]. - The commission rates for various product categories have been adjusted downward compared to the previous agreements, with new rates ranging from 8% to 22% and 8% to 24% for different segments [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the airport service industry [8]. Core Insights - The introduction of foreign participants in the new round of duty-free tenders at Shanghai Pudong, Hongqiao, and Beijing Capital airports marks a significant change in the competitive landscape [2][4]. - Dufry, a global leader in travel retail, has entered the bidding process, indicating a shift towards a more diversified and competitive market in China's duty-free sector [4][21]. - The bidding rules now allow only one segment win per bidder, breaking the previous monopoly held by China Duty Free Group [14][21]. - The overall commission rates for duty-free contracts are expected to increase unless there is a substantial growth in sales volumes [2][6]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Tender Competition Intensifies - Major airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen a significant drop in international passenger numbers from 2020 to 2022, leading to the expiration of restructured duty-free contracts [4][16]. - The new bidding process allows for foreign companies to participate, which is a departure from the previous exclusive operations by domestic firms [14][21]. Changes in Duty-Free Contract Commission Rates - The new contracts at Shanghai Airport utilize a "fixed rent + additional commission" model, which is a high minimum guarantee combined with lower commission rates [6][40]. - If the sales volume at Shanghai Pudong Airport reaches 15 billion yuan, the comprehensive commission rate could drop to approximately 22%, aligning with previous contract levels [6][40]. Airport Fundamentals and Recovery - The airport sector is undergoing significant fixed asset investments due to historical external shocks, with a stable recovery in passenger volumes expected [7][43]. - Airports like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai are projected to have absolute yield value amidst improving mid-term operational data [7][43].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in consumer spending, with tourism-related prices showing strong performance. The national CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November 2025, reflecting a continued recovery in consumer spending [2][7]. - Hotel prices have shown resilience despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with the average hotel room price maintaining positive growth year-on-year. The RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) has only slightly declined, indicating a shift from a volume-driven recovery to a price-stabilized and optimized operational approach [2][8]. - The introduction of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) in the service industry is expected to clarify the asset securitization path for various service sectors, including tourism and hospitality. This initiative aims to revitalize existing assets and improve financial structures [2][22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotel Structure Differentiation and Price Resilience - The hotel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in occupancy rates, but average room prices remain stable, with an ADR (Average Daily Rate) of 388.8 CNY per night in early December, up 4.3% year-on-year [8][10]. - The RevPAR for the week ending December 6, 2025, was 233 CNY per night, showing only a 0.4% decline year-on-year, indicating a recovery phase focused on price stability and operational efficiency [8][10]. 2. REITs Supporting Asset Securitization in the Service Industry - The newly released REITs project industry scope includes cultural tourism infrastructure and commercial facilities, allowing for a clearer path to asset securitization for hotels and tourist attractions [22][23]. - The report emphasizes that the inclusion of high-quality service industry assets in the REITs framework will enhance cash flow stability and operational efficiency, ultimately benefiting the valuation and investment landscape of the sector [22][24]. 3. Valuation of Key Industry Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the tourism and hospitality sectors, including metrics such as market capitalization and PE ratios, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities [26]. - Notable companies highlighted for investment consideration include tourism sites like Sanxia Tourism and hotels like Shoulu Hotel and Huazhu [26].