2025年8月18日，A股市场再度全线大涨，同时A股市值首次突破100万亿元大关，沪指突破自2015年8月 20日之后新高。截13:42，A500ETF南方(159352)上涨1.28%，盘中换手26.17%，成交45.56亿元，市场交 投活跃。跟踪指数中证A500指数强势上涨1.41%，成分股芒果超媒上涨18.62%，石头科技上涨13.77%， 恒玄科技上涨11.82%，同花顺，中鼎股份等个股跟涨。 拉长时间看，截至8月15日，A500ETF南方(159352)近1月规模增长8.04亿元。 中证A500指数前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台、宁德时代、中国平安、招商银行、兴业银行、美的集 团、长江电力、紫金矿业、东方财富、比亚迪。 消息面上，据国家统计局公布数据，7月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长5.8%。分行业看，信息传 输、软件和信息技术服务业，金融业，租赁和商务服务业生产指数同比分别增长11.9%、8.7%、8.0%， 分别快于服务业生产指数6.1、2.9、2.2个百分点。今年7月份，国民经济保持稳中有进发展态势，生产 需求持续增长，就业物价总体稳定，新质生产力培育壮大，高质量发展取得新成效。 A500ETF ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai 180 Index (000010) has shown a strong increase of 1.12% as of August 18, 2025, with notable gains from stocks such as Stone Technology (688169) up 14.10%, Northern Rare Earth (600111) up 10.00%, and Great Wall Motors (601633) up 8.32% [3] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) has risen by 0.44%, marking its fifth consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.13 yuan. Over the past week, the fund has accumulated a rise of 2.46%, ranking 1st among comparable funds [3] - The Shanghai 180 Index employs a barbell strategy consisting of 90% dividend stocks and 10% technology stocks, providing a good option for equity market allocation. This strategy allows for potential benefits from rapid technological development while maintaining a solid dividend base [3] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Hengrui Medicine (600276), and Ping An Insurance (601318), with these stocks collectively accounting for 25.4% of the index [4] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Kweichow Moutai at 4.92%, Ping An Insurance at 2.75%, and Hengrui Medicine at 2.62%, among others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal and mining industry [10]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the metal market is currently at a cyclical bottom, with commodity prices experiencing fluctuations and equities leading the way. The first half of the year saw a "strong reality, weak expectations" scenario for copper and aluminum, while the second half is expected to see a decline in demand due to reduced wind and solar installations and export factors. However, supply elasticity is limited, and the extent of supply-demand deterioration is expected to be manageable. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased domestic stimulus policies, a "weak reality, stable expectations" state is anticipated, leading to continued fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices until demand enters a strong expectation or reality phase, projected by the end of this year or early next year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Commodity Market - In the commodity market, copper and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of strong reality and weak expectations in the first half of the year. The second half is likely to see a decline in demand, but supply constraints will limit the deterioration of the supply-demand balance. The report suggests that the market will stabilize as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and domestic stimulus measures are implemented [6][7]. Equity Market - The equity market is positioned to lead the recovery as the cyclical bottom is reached. The report highlights that the current equity valuations have already factored in a significant amount of pessimism, making it an opportune time for investment in copper and aluminum sectors. The influx of long-term capital is expected to enhance pricing power and support the recovery of copper and aluminum values [7][8]. Precious Metals - The report maintains a bullish outlook on precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts. It suggests that gold stocks may experience a quarterly-level resonance across price, valuation, and style dimensions. The recommendation is to increase allocation to gold stocks, especially after gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce [5][6]. Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, noting that the value of these metals is being reassessed. The government is intensifying control over resources and smelting, which is expected to enhance the long-term strategic value of rare earths amid ongoing trade tensions. The report also highlights the potential for price increases in tungsten due to supply constraints and improving macroeconomic expectations [8][9].

2025 年 8 月 17 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业空头创 2012 年 1 月以来新低 ——铜行业周报（20250811-20250815） 要点 本周小结：铜价短期仍维持震荡。截至 2025 年 8 月 15 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 79060 元/吨，环比8月8日+0.73%；LME铜收盘价9760 美元/吨，环比8月8日-0.08%。 （1）宏观：美联储 9 月降息概率增加，美元本周走弱。（2）供需：美国与非 美地区的库存套利逻辑已结束，原搬运至美国的库存将逐步显性化，短期 LME 和 COMEX 均面临累库压力；国内线缆开工率本周小幅回落，8-10 月空调排产 同比下降，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求 Q4 回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，Q4 铜价有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比-4.8%，LME 铜库存环比+0.1%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 15 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 55.8 万吨，环比上周 -10.0%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 8 月 11 日，全球三大交易所库 存合计 50.2 万吨，环比+6.4%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 36.77% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 29.98 percentage points [5][9] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by increased production and investment in infrastructure [4][11] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [4] - The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points, with notable increases in copper (5.95%) and aluminum (5.04%) prices [4][11] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains across various metals, with small metals up by 49.02% and energy metals by 33.83% [11] Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices increasing by 0.12% and aluminum decreasing by 0.08% [16] - Lithium prices surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 17.48% and industrial-grade lithium carbonate by 19.42% [16] - Precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold prices dropping by 2.21% [16] Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a current stock price of 21.29 CNY and a projected PE ratio of 27 for 2023 [20] - Shandong Gold's stock price is 31.26 CNY, with a projected PE ratio of 60 for 2023 [20] - Companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum are highlighted for their potential benefits from the ongoing market trends [20] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance in the aluminum market, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production at 373.96 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year [52] - Copper supply remains relatively stable, with social inventory at 126,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 million tons [35] - The report suggests that the demand for copper will be supported by ongoing investments in electrical infrastructure and home appliance subsidies [4][35]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is recovering, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and the upcoming peak demand season in September and October, leading to price increases in copper and aluminum [1][2] - Precious metals are supported by rising trade tensions, weak labor market data in the US, and ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts, which have contributed to an upward trend in gold and silver prices [3] - The small metals sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in antimony and rare earths, with price increases and improved fundamentals expected [4][5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices continue to rise, with the Shanghai copper closing at 79,080 CNY/ton, supported by tight supply and increased demand from downstream sectors [1][14] - Aluminum prices have increased, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,660 CNY/ton, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and favorable macro policies [2][19] - Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 780.72 CNY/gram and silver at 9,210 CNY/kilogram, supported by weak US economic data and inflation trends [3][23] Small Metals - Antimony prices are showing signs of stabilization, with market dynamics indicating limited downward space due to strong cost support and low inventory levels [4] - Rare earth prices have reached new highs, with light rare earth oxide prices rising by 7% to 557,500 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in the sector [5] Other Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 83,000 CNY/ton, reflecting strong market demand and supply disruptions [33] - Cobalt prices are experiencing a slight increase, with cobalt intermediate prices rising to 13.1 USD/pound, although demand remains weak [38] - Tin prices have shown strength, with LME tin closing at 33,700 USD/ton, supported by positive macro sentiment despite underlying supply weaknesses [43] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten ore prices reaching 200,500 CNY/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [48] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, with 45-50 degree molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,365 CNY/ton, driven by increased demand from steel mills [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply expectations for copper are further tightening, leading to a robust performance in copper prices. Additionally, the gold market is expected to benefit from rising inflation expectations in the U.S. due to tariff disturbances [1][38] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase this week [13] - Price fluctuations among non-ferrous metals varied, with some prices rising while others fell [23] 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Supply expectations are tightening, with global copper inventories increasing by 0.84 thousand tons. Chile's copper production growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced [2] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to macroeconomic sentiments, with a slight increase in supply and moderate demand [2] 3. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Supply disruptions are causing lithium prices to rebound strongly, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15% to 83,000 CNY/ton [3] - **Metal Silicon**: The market remains stable with no significant changes in the fundamentals, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] 4. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by U.S. inflation data, with a notable increase in the PPI to 3.7% in July, leading to expectations of continued upward pressure on gold prices [1][38] 5. Key Stocks - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market conditions [1][2][3]

Core Insights - Chile's copper supply is tight, continuing to recommend opportunities in industrial metals [5][7] - The report maintains a positive investment rating for industrial metals [5] Industrial Metals - Copper: Supply constraints due to the suspension of Codelco's copper mine in Chile (350,000 tons), limited future increments post-resumption, and no hope for the Panama copper mine to resume this year. Tight raw material supply has led to reduced output and declining social inventory. Demand remains stable, with major traders reluctant to sell, creating a bullish market sentiment. The upcoming demand peak from September to November could significantly push copper prices higher if supply remains constrained. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Western Mining, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and Zangge Mining [7]. - Aluminum: Slight increase in theoretical operating capacity and rising aluminum ingot inventory. Weekly aluminum rod production decreased, but real estate consumption sentiment in Beijing improved. In the medium to long term, alumina supply is expected to increase, potentially keeping prices low. Electrolytic aluminum inventory is at historical lows, providing price support as the peak season approaches. Recommended stocks include Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Suotong Development, Huatong Cable, and Zhongfu Industrial [7]. Energy Metals - Rare Earths: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 3.62% to 558,000 yuan/ton, and praseodymium-neodymium mixed metal prices increased by 2.65% to 678,000 yuan/ton. Supply remains tight, with some companies halting production due to raw material shortages. The upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices higher. Recommended stocks include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, Shenghe Resources, and Guangsheng Nonferrous [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.12% to 81,200 yuan/ton. The suspension of the Jiangxi mine since August 10 and other mines facing license reviews have led to low inventory levels, shifting the industry from surplus to tight balance. Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Lingnan, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Rongjie, and Salt Lake Resources [7]. Precious Metals - Inflation recovery and interest rate cut expectations are under scrutiny, with market focus on the aftermath of US-Russia-Ukraine talks. CPI data was weak, but core CPI exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in rate cut expectations for September. The lack of a ceasefire agreement after the US-Russia summit has heightened market caution. Long-term, risks from debt and slowing economic growth may pressure the dollar and US Treasuries, highlighting gold's value as a hedge. Recommended stocks with production growth and performance release include Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shanjin International, Western Gold, Chifeng Gold, Tongguan Gold, and Wanguo Gold Group [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to support commodity prices in the near term [1][2]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to the upcoming "golden September and silver October" season, despite some weakness in demand [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly cobalt and lithium, are projected to experience price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to rise in price, driven by central bank gold purchases and changing tariff policies [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices are supported by rising production rates and demand from downstream cable consumption, with the SMM import copper concentrate index showing a slight increase [2][3]. - Aluminum production remains high, but demand is weak, leading to an increase in social inventory [2][21]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages, while lithium prices are also increasing due to tight supply conditions [3]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with a target of breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark [4]. - Key companies recommended include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4][5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance and holdings of the Invesco Great Wall State-Owned Enterprise Value Mixed A fund, which has shown positive returns since its inception [1] - The fund's latest net value is 1.3793 yuan, with a weekly return of 2.43%, a three-month return of 12.44%, and a year-to-date return of 14.46% [1] - The fund was established on May 30, 2023, and as of June 30, 2025, it has a total scale of 295 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top ten stock holdings of the fund include Zijin Mining, China Mobile, Shenhuo Holdings, Tencent Holdings, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Chuan Yi Co., Ltd., Sinopharm Holdings, Zhuhai Yinhai Group, Yun Aluminum, and CRRC Corporation, with a combined holding percentage of 52.32% [1]