拜耳是全球草甘膦龙头，若孟山都破产或致使全球草甘膦供给格局重塑 当前草甘膦全球产能约118万吨，其中海外拜耳公司产能37万吨，其余81万吨产能都集中在中国。若拜 耳草甘膦致癌诉讼和解失败导致孟山都最终破产，或导致草甘膦龙头企业产能出清，全球草甘膦供需格 局或重塑，我国草甘膦生产企业有望凭借完善的产业链和成本优势掌握主动权。同时，产能出清背景下 或带来草甘膦盈利能力回暖，相关企业有望实现盈利增长。 方正证券发布研报称，据媒体报道，拜耳正在准备一项计划，以解决其在密苏里州因Roundup除草剂引 发的一些大规模诉讼，如果努力失败，拜耳还可能寻求旗下孟山都公司破产。草甘膦行业或处于供需格 局重塑的大变局之中，我国草甘膦生产企业有望凭借完善的产业链和成本优势掌握主动权，建议关注： 兴发集团（600141）、江山股份（600389）、和邦生物（603077）、扬农化工（600486）、广信股份 （603599）等。同时，草铵膦有望受草甘膦变局影响需求端迎来快速增长，建议关注：利尔化学 （002258）等。 方正证券主要观点如下： 草甘膦是全球用量最大的除草剂 作为一种非选择性除草剂，草甘膦可以同时杀死杂草和农作物，因此 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by increased purchases from global central banks and heightened investment demand, reflecting new characteristics in gold demand structure [1][2][3] - Short-term fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking by investors and a temporary slowdown in central bank purchases, but a long-term upward trend in gold prices is expected due to declining dollar credibility and ongoing central bank gold accumulation [1][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold prices are determined by supply and demand balance, with supply being relatively stable due to gold's scarcity. Demand is categorized into jewelry manufacturing, industrial use, central bank purchases, and investment [4][6] - Central bank gold purchases have significantly increased in recent years, accounting for 21.77% of total demand by the end of 2024, making it a crucial factor influencing gold prices [6][9] Historical Trends - Gold's historical price movements can be divided into three phases: the Bretton Woods system (1944-1971), a period of volatility post-1971, and the current phase characterized by increased central bank purchases since 2022 [2][31] - The current phase of gold price increases is marked by central bank purchases and investor demand driven by inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions [2][65] Future Outlook - Short-term corrections in gold prices may occur, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated due to factors such as declining dollar trust, the onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, and sustained central bank gold purchases [3][65] - The interplay of gold's financial, commodity, and monetary attributes will continue to influence its demand and pricing dynamics in the context of global economic uncertainties [18][26][70]

方正证券主要观点如下： 2)新趋势：功效多元化、剂型零食化，对供给端的研发能力提出更高的要求。功效方面，当前"悦己经 济"蓬勃发展，消费者对功效的期待变得更加具体且个性化，比如单个产品开发复合功效，这要求供给 端具备市场洞察捕捉各类群体的隐蔽健康痛点，同时也要具备开发循证有效产品的研发能力;剂型方 面，软糖、饮品等新兴剂型兼具适口性与便利性，有利于培养消费者的日常服用习惯，根据灼识咨询， 22-24年软糖/饮品剂型CAGR分别约为40%/30%，剂型增速领先，这要求供给端具有充足的新剂型产能 及出色的研发能力。 方正证券发布研报称，当前中国营养保健食品市场处于重要变革期，新消费驱动下行业呈现渠道多元 化、产品创新化、人群全龄化三大特征。该行重视积极把握新消费变革趋势的头部B端企业，新消费驱 动业绩增长，或有望带来板块的估值切换。建议关注积极布局新消费赛道的头部企业，推荐聚焦高价值 客户拓展的仙乐健康（300791）(300791.SZ)及布局跨境与宠物营养的百合股份（603102） (603102.SH)。该行预计，未来行业将保持中高个位数复合增长，头部企业集中度有望加速提升。 当前中国营养保健食品市场处于重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition of public collective investment products from large brokerage firms to their affiliated fund companies is nearing completion, aligning with regulatory guidance and enhancing resource sharing and collaboration within the industry [1][8]. Group 1: Transfer of Products - Recently, Guangfa Securities applied to transfer seven public collective investment products to Guangfa Fund Management, while Huazhong Securities transferred two products to its subsidiary Huafu Fund Management [1]. - Earlier, CITIC Securities transferred all 19 of its public collective investment plans to Huaxia Fund Management, with some applications already approved by the CSRC [1][5]. - Other firms like Founder Securities, Guoyuan Securities, Donghai Securities, and Everbright Securities are also transferring their public collective investment plans to affiliated fund companies [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The public collective investment product transformation is expected to conclude by June 30, indicating a significant shift towards compliance and standardization in the industry [8]. - Currently, less than 20% of brokerage asset management companies hold public fund licenses, necessitating the transfer of products to licensed fund companies for continued operation [8]. - The transition is anticipated to enhance the operational efficiency of asset management firms, allowing them to focus on high-value private equity sectors while public fund operations are managed by specialized fund companies [8]. Group 3: Market Impact - As of the end of Q1 2025, there are 303 public collective investment products with a total asset size of approximately 3,565.42 billion yuan, indicating a significant scale increase for the involved fund companies [9]. - The publicization of these products is expected to improve compliance and market acceptance, pushing brokerage asset management towards a more transparent and standardized operational model [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a "sustained, stable, and active capital market" as a key driver for market sentiment and growth [6][7] - It highlights the significant growth in the securities industry, particularly in brokerage and proprietary trading, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for listed brokers in Q1 2025 [36][37] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Interpretation on "Sustained, Stable, and Active Capital Market" - The report discusses recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing and invigorating the capital market, including support for long-term capital inflows and the promotion of new regulatory frameworks [8][7] - It outlines specific actions from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) to enhance market liquidity and investor confidence [8] 2. Securities Industry Q1 2025 Performance Overview and Outlook - In Q1 2025, 42 listed brokers achieved revenues of CNY 125.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit of CNY 52.18 billion, up 77.8% [37][38] - The fastest-growing segments were proprietary trading (up 45.5%) and brokerage services (up 43.2%), while investment banking and asset management saw slight declines [36][37] - The report notes that the average return on equity (ROE) for listed brokers improved to 8.05%, reflecting enhanced profitability across the sector [47][46] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing reforms and market conditions present favorable investment opportunities within the securities sector, particularly in brokerage and proprietary trading [36][37] - It identifies potential benefits for underweighted sectors, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards areas with lower current allocations [15]

销售均价：重点上市猪企四月商品猪销售均价环比小幅上涨 重点上市猪企四月生猪出栏量同比+37.2% 13家重点上市猪企中，12家出栏量同比为正值，其中正邦科技(+236.0%)、正虹科技(+111.3%)同比增幅 超100%，增幅较大;仅京基智农(-2.8%)同比出栏量小幅下降。由于牧原股份出栏量占比较大，剔除其影 响后，剩余12家重点猪企4月出栏量同比+27.4%。牧原股份4月商品猪出栏量在24年大基数之上，同比 再增长51.8%。 出栏体重：该行测算，重点猪企四月生猪出栏均重环比约+0.6% 4月，8家重点上市猪企生猪出栏均重约124.7kg/头，高位环比持续增长。其中，仅金新农(-2.1%)、温氏 股份(-1.0%)出栏均重小幅下调，重点猪企出栏均重基本在120kg以上。该行认为，受标肥价差影响，上 市猪企为优化头均盈利水平，普遍采取增重出栏措施，后续压栏情绪或随价差收窄有所减弱。 智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，4月重点上市猪企整体出栏量环比小幅下降，变动值在正常 生产经营调整范围内。该行测算，重点猪企四月生猪出栏均重环比约+0.6%。重点上市猪企四月商品猪 销售均价环比小幅上涨生猪板块在低猪价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that overseas polyurethane companies faced pressure on volume and price in Q1 2025, leading to a general decline in profits. However, MDI/TDI prices have stabilized and rebounded by the end of April, with supply-side adjustments and progress in US-China trade negotiations suggesting a potential recovery in Q2 2025 for the Asia-Pacific polyurethane business [1][2]. - Major companies reported revenue declines in Q1 2025: BASF and Covestro both saw a 1% decrease, Huntsman a 4% decrease, and Dow a 3% decrease. EBITDA also fell significantly, with BASF down 18%, Covestro down 50%, Huntsman down 11%, and Dow down 32%. The overall demand weakness and price pressures were the main reasons for the revenue decline [1]. - The North American polyurethane market has become increasingly reliant on imports, particularly MDI, with about 500,000 tons imported annually, 70% from China and 30% from Europe. The impact of tariffs and anti-dumping duties is expected to reduce direct exports to the US, shifting trade flows towards Asia-Pacific or Europe [2]. Group 2 - Companies are accelerating asset disposals to cut costs, with BASF proceeding with the divestment of its coatings business and closing a production line in Germany. Huntsman plans to close two downstream factories in Europe and one in Canada, while Dow is shutting down its chlor-alkali/ethylene asset in Schkopau and a silicone plant in the UK [3]. - Earnings guidance remains cautious, with BASF maintaining an EBITDA target of €8-8.4 billion for 2025, Covestro expecting €200-300 million for Q2 2025, Huntsman projecting $35-50 million for Q2 2025, and Dow reducing capital expenditures by $1-2.5 billion [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [39]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the introduction of incremental policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which are expected to provide significant liquidity to the market [32][33]. - The performance of the non-bank financial sector is analyzed, with the overall index showing a slight increase of 1.75%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.26 percentage points [9][39]. - Specific sectors within the non-bank financial industry, such as securities, insurance, and diversified finance, are rated positively, with expected growth in their respective markets [3][39]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index experienced weekly increases of 1.92%, 2.00%, and 3.27% respectively [9]. - The non-bank financial sector's performance was slightly below the broader market, with the Shenwan Non-Bank Index rising by 1.75% [9]. Data Tracking - As of May 9, 2025, the securities sector's PE-TTM valuation stands at 18.81x, while the PB-LF valuation is at 1.34x [5]. - The insurance sector's PEV valuations for major companies are as follows: China Life at 0.63x, Ping An at 0.60x, and China Pacific at 0.49x [6]. Industry Dynamics - A joint announcement by the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced a series of financial policies to support market stability, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio [32][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting technology innovation through bond issuance, which is expected to enhance financing channels for tech enterprises [37]. Recommended Companies and Ratings - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Founder Securities: Buy - Xiangcai Securities: Buy - China Life: Buy - ZhongAn Online: Increase [3][38].

Group 1 - Red Tower Securities announced a proposal for share buyback to optimize capital structure and enhance shareholder value, with a total potential buyback amount reaching up to 40 billion yuan across multiple securities firms [1] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission expressed support for state-owned enterprises to increase share repurchases, leading to a wave of buyback plans among securities companies [1] - The current buyback plans from six securities firms amount to approximately 38 billion yuan, with a minimum estimate of nearly 20 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Han Yong has stepped down as General Manager of Huatai-PB Fund, with Chairman Jia Bo temporarily taking over the role [2] - Han Yong served as General Manager for over 13 years, and the company emphasizes a stable governance structure and mature team-building system [2] - The management transition aims to ensure the company's continued stable development, although short-term operational impacts may occur [2] Group 3 - He Yagang has retired due to age, and Jiang Zhijun has been appointed as the new President of Founder Securities [3] - Jiang Zhijun has extensive experience in wealth management and aims to enhance the company's wealth management business [3] - The market is expected to focus on the new president's strategic direction, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in the brokerage sector [3] Group 4 - The private equity issuance market has seen significant activity this year, with nearly 3,500 new products launched, representing a nearly 40% increase compared to the same period last year [4] - Quantitative private equity has shown notable performance, with some new products raising over 100 million yuan [4] - The recovery in private equity performance indicates a restoration of investor confidence, which may inject new vitality into the stock market and boost market sentiment [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the transition of leadership within the securities industry, particularly focusing on the retirement of veteran executives and the appointment of new leaders [1][2][3] - He Yagang, a long-serving executive at Founder Securities, has retired at the age of 61 after a significant career that began in 1992, during which he played a crucial role in the company's transformation and strategic developments [1][3] - The new president, Jiang Zhijun, has been appointed to succeed He Yagang, and he has extensive experience in wealth management, which is a key area of focus for the company moving forward [1][4][5] Group 2 - Founder Securities has reported strong financial performance, with a projected revenue of 77.18 billion yuan and a net profit of 22.07 billion yuan for 2024, marking a record high in dividend payout ratio at 40.02% [3] - The wealth management segment is a significant driver of revenue for Founder Securities, contributing over 70% of total revenue in 2024, with a revenue of 56.64 billion yuan from this segment alone [5] - In the first quarter of 2025, Founder Securities achieved a revenue of 29.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 49.35%, primarily driven by increases in wealth management and trading business revenues [6]