二、风险提示 2025 年度主要财务数据的公告 中国国际金融股份有限公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记 载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据中国外汇交易中心暨全国银行间同业拆借中心的相关规定，中国国际金 融股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）全资子公司中国中金财富证券有限公司（以 下简称"中金财富"）将于中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn）披露其 2025 年度未经审计的母公司资产负债表、利润表及净资本计算表。上述报表为中金财 富未经审计的单体报表，不包括中金财富合并范围内的子公司数据。公司现将中 金财富 2025 年度未经审计的母公司主要财务数据披露如下： 一、中金财富 2025 年度未经审计的母公司主要财务数据 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，中金财富总资产 204,051,686,642.62 元（人民币， 下同），净资产22,437,196,926.77元；2025年1-12月实现营业收入8,349,401,184.00 元（其中：手续费及佣金净收入 5,342,514,362.43 元，利息净收入 1,760,64 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities expresses optimism about the brokerage sector, highlighting the sustained growth of brokerage performance and the pressure on the funding side, indicating a significant lag in the brokerage sector [1] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - On January 16, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) solicited opinions on the draft of the "Supervision and Management Measures for Derivative Transactions (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" [2] - The policy aims to strengthen the standardized management of the derivatives market, clarifying the CSRC's regulatory scope and emphasizing enhanced monitoring and cross-market regulation [3] - The policy supports the steady development of the derivatives market, encouraging risk management activities and limiting excessive speculation [3] Group 2: Impact on Brokerage Firms - The enhanced transparency in derivatives regulation is expected to benefit the long-term development of brokerage firms' derivatives business, providing a more stable operational framework for brokers and investors [4] - The derivatives business is highly concentrated, with top-tier brokers holding significant advantages; as of November 2023, the market share of the top five firms in swap and OTC options was 66% and 59%, respectively [4] - Top-tier brokers, such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, can directly engage in stock hedging transactions, while secondary brokers are limited in their trading capabilities [4] Group 3: Market Stability and Investment Recommendations - Derivative tools are seen as beneficial for stabilizing market fluctuations, with the potential for relaxed scale restrictions favoring leading brokers [5] - The CSRC's commitment to a robust monitoring system for derivatives trading is expected to facilitate high-quality development in the derivatives business, contributing to market stability [5] - Investment recommendations include top brokers with strong international business and undervalued stocks, such as Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan, as well as firms with significant wealth management advantages like GF Securities [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xinke Mobile (688387) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of 22.61 CNY, based on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation, indicating a potential upside of 18.9% [4]. Core Insights - Xinke Mobile is a leading player in the autonomous communication standard and system construction, with a strong technical foundation, having accumulated 17,170 patents by the end of 2024 and ranking tenth globally in effective 5G standard patents [4]. - The company is a core participant in satellite internet communication systems, leading the development of 21 5G NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) standards, which account for about one-third of global initiatives [4]. - Xinke Mobile's satellite internet strategy includes a full-stack layout across the entire industry chain, enhancing its growth logic through advancements in phased array technology and payload value expansion [4]. - The company has established key patent licensing agreements with major overseas terminal manufacturers, including a $95 million patent licensing fee from Apple, showcasing its strong patent operation capabilities [4]. - The report highlights a significant difference in market perception, asserting that Xinke Mobile is a key payload supplier for satellite internet, poised to benefit from industry trends [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of 6.136 billion CNY, 6.227 billion CNY, and 8.012 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of -192 million CNY, 58 million CNY, and 330 million CNY for the same years [4]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is -0.06 CNY, 0.02 CNY, and 0.10 CNY, respectively, with a CAGR of 289% from 2026 to 2027 [4]. Industry Overview - The global mobile communication industry is currently in the 5G phase, with significant advancements in standards and technology, including the establishment of the IMT-2020 (5G) promotion group in China [32]. - The integration of satellite and terrestrial networks is a key feature of the upcoming 6G era, with the report emphasizing the importance of satellite technology in enhancing communication coverage [37]. - The demand for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations is increasing, with significant improvements in download speeds and latency compared to traditional geostationary satellites [41]. - The report notes that the global satellite internet construction is entering a peak phase, driven by companies like SpaceX, which has significantly increased its satellite launch numbers [45]. - The Chinese government is actively supporting the commercial space sector, with policies aimed at fostering the development of satellite internet and related technologies [54].

Investment Rating - The report estimates that Alibaba Cloud's revenue CAGR is expected to exceed 30% over the next three years [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba's Tongyi series models lead globally through an open-source strategy and continuous investment in iteration, enhancing its model engineering capabilities [4][15]. - The company has announced a capital expenditure plan of 380 billion RMB over three years to enhance its infrastructure, which is currently distributed across 29 regions and 92 availability zones globally [4][60]. - Alibaba Cloud is building a developer ecosystem through the Bailian platform and the Modao community, creating a unique business model that integrates model open-sourcing, computing power monetization, and ecosystem value addition [4]. Summary by Sections Full-Stack Technology and Infrastructure - Alibaba Cloud's full-stack technology establishes a strong competitive moat in the AI era, with significant investments in infrastructure and self-developed GPU chips [4][15]. - The company aims to enhance its overseas infrastructure layout, leveraging its global data center expansion and AI product internationalization [7]. Revenue Growth and Profitability - The report anticipates a significant increase in profitability, with profit margins expected to exceed 15% due to the rising proportion of AI revenue and high-margin overseas business [6]. - The domestic market is experiencing accelerated intelligent transformation across industries such as internet, finance, and automotive, allowing Alibaba Cloud to continuously increase its market share [7]. Competitive Positioning - Alibaba Cloud maintains a leading position in model iteration, scenario adaptation, and understanding of B2B customers, with a robust global infrastructure that supports its AI development [15]. - The Tongyi series models have established a comprehensive technology matrix, serving over 1 million enterprise customers globally and demonstrating strong commercial viability [23][29]. AI Ecosystem and Applications - The report highlights the importance of open-source strategies in building a robust AI ecosystem, with Alibaba's Tongyi models being the most downloaded globally [26][45]. - Alibaba is advancing its C-end applications and hardware ecosystem, aiming to create a super app that integrates various services and enhances user engagement [47].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "bottomless top" in the context of the A-share market, suggesting that the market is currently in a slow bull phase, which is characterized by gradually rising highs and lows, contrasting with the historical volatility of the A-share market [1][2]. Group 1: Significance of "Bottomless Top" Slow Bull - A "bottomless top" slow bull market supports a healthy capital market, which is crucial for enhancing China's international status, improving economic growth quality, and facilitating industrial upgrades [4]. - Strengthening the RMB as a "functional anchor" is essential for establishing a financial powerhouse, with a sustainable return rate from a slow bull market attracting global capital [4]. - Improving residents' income expectations through capital market returns can create a positive feedback loop for consumption, especially in the context of current asset scarcity [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Past A-share Market's Inability to Form a Slow Bull - The A-share market has historically struggled to establish a slow bull due to its high volatility and frequent bull-bear cycles, with only 51% of months showing gains compared to 66% in the S&P 500 [8][12]. - The market has experienced a high frequency of large monthly gains, indicating a tendency for rapid price increases that can deplete future expectations [8][12]. - Structural characteristics of the Chinese economy, such as reliance on capital formation and real estate, contribute to the "pulse-like" nature of earnings cycles, leading to frequent fluctuations [12][20]. Group 3: Current Conditions Favoring a Slow Bull in A-share Market - The current A-share market is better positioned for a slow bull than ever before, driven by the restructuring of the international monetary order and the resilience of the Chinese economy [30]. - Economic transformation and the emergence of new growth drivers, such as manufacturing and innovation, are expected to enhance the sustainability of profit growth [31][32]. - Recent reforms, including the new "National Nine Articles," aim to address imbalances in investment and financing, improving the overall market environment [39][40]. Group 4: Challenges to Sustaining a Slow Bull - Despite favorable conditions, challenges remain in the form of structural issues in the economy, regulatory frameworks, and the need for a balanced investment environment [61][62]. - The implementation of the new "National Nine Articles" and the need for improved financial hedging tools are critical for stabilizing the market and enhancing investor confidence [62][63]. - Attracting long-term capital from both domestic and international sources is essential for sustaining the slow bull, necessitating further reforms and openness in the market [63].

人民财讯1月19日电，中金公司（601995）研报称，看涨铝价和吨铝利润扩张，迎接电解铝板块重估机 遇。研报认为，电解铝供需缺口持续扩大，叠加全球积极的财政和货币政策共振，铝价有望持续创出新 高；考虑成本侧有望维持低位，吨铝利润有望随着铝价上行进一步走阔。按照当前价格，电解铝公司 2026年平均估值中枢仍压在10倍附近，在涨价过程中具备较大向上重估空间，板块有望迎来戴维斯双 击。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，国际货币秩序重构是本轮A股牛市的核心驱动力。2024年9月以 来，A股在此前一片悲观声音中走出震荡上行的牛市，关于牛市成因市场有诸多讨论。其中"924"的政 策转向是基础，而该行认可的牛市持续驱动力是国际货币秩序重构，既因为美元资产安全性本身出问 题，中国经济强大韧性，以及AI革命之下中国创新叙事反转也至关重要。尤其是2025年中美谈判反映 中国综合国力的提升，进一步动摇美元霸权和强化新秩序，驱动全球资金再配置以及中国资产重估。此 外，低利率环境，居民旺盛的资产配置需求，国家队稳市机制也是有利于市场的环境。考虑到A股估值 从大类资产比较以及全球股市比较维度仍具备吸引力，国际货币秩序重构仍在演绎中，中国创新产业叙 事延续并将带来业绩兑现，该行看好A股牛市继续进行。中金认为值得注意的是，A股面临的基本面、 制度面和资金面环境在过去不断量变的过程中发生较多质变，当前A股可能比历史任何时候更具备慢牛 的条件。 中金主要观点如下： 基本面：推进全国统一大市场建设，产业政策进一步多元化。该行认为宏观层面的产能周期波动，核心 是地方区域之间竞争导致行业过度投资，最终加总供给远超市场需求。 ...

中金公司研报指出，供给端弹性下降且脆弱性上升。一是国内产能触顶，二是欧美受制于电力紧张难以 恢复且脆弱性提升，三是印尼受制于电力供应产能难以快速释放，我们预计2025-2030年全球供应增速 将系统性下滑,供应CAGR为1.4%。需求侧受益于财政货币双宽松且新兴需求方兴未艾。我们认为，一 是传统需求有望在宽松下获得提振，二是储能、IDC叠加新三样正在成为铝需求的新引擎，三是海外新 兴经济体支撑铝需求进入新周期，我们预计2025-2030年需求CAGR为2.3%。成本端，我们认为，一是 氧化铝受反内卷和几内亚政策风险有望驱动价格否极泰来，二是能源绿色转型有望降低电解铝绿电成 本，三是煤炭需求拖累价格维持低位。中国铝产业加速出海布局，具有出海潜力的公司具备更强的成长 性。受制于国内铝土矿短缺和2017年以来电解铝产能天花板限制，中国铝企出海东南亚、非洲、中东等 地的进程正全面加速。率先出海的企业将构建先发优势，卡位资源和能源丰富区域。看涨铝价和吨铝利 润扩张，迎接电解铝板块重估机遇。我们认为，电解铝供需缺口持续扩大，叠加全球积极的财政和货币 政策共振，铝价有望持续创出新高；考虑成本侧有望维持低位，吨铝利润有望随着 ...

Focus Review - The People's Bank of China has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-lending rate now at 1.25% [3] - This policy is seen as the start of a monetary easing process, with potential for further adjustments if economic conditions worsen [3] Equity Market - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on performance and cost-effectiveness as the earnings forecast period approaches, suggesting two main categories for investment: themes with catalysts and relatively low crowding, such as media (gaming) and service consumption (duty-free), and sectors benefiting from external demand recovery, like batteries and engineering machinery [5] - Fuguo Fund highlights that in a low-interest-rate environment, dividend assets are gaining attention due to their stable cash flow and high dividend yield, making them a mature investment strategy globally [6] - CICC predicts that A-shares are likely to outperform Hong Kong stocks in 2026, while investors should focus on unique structural opportunities in Hong Kong, particularly in sectors like dividends, internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [7] Industry Research - GF Fund suggests that resource products may become a key investment theme in 2026, driven by macroeconomic conditions and AI demand, with a focus on non-ferrous metals and certain chemicals [11] - Huatai Securities notes a significant recovery in the liquidity of the Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical sector, driven by unexpected BD transactions and overseas interest rate cuts, recommending increased allocation to this sector [12] - Fuguo Fund reports that surging AI demand is causing a supply-demand imbalance in the memory industry, leading to significant price increases, with expectations of a strong cycle lasting until the second half of 2026 [13] Macro and Fixed Income - Guohai Franklin Fund indicates that the bond market may experience volatility in 2025, with a focus on stable growth and price recovery policies, while remaining cautious of potential upward risks from stimulus measures [18] - Guotai Fund believes that the recent interest rate cuts by the central bank have boosted market sentiment, although the direct impact on credit and the bond market is limited [19] -招商基金 suggests a defensive approach in the first quarter, anticipating stabilization in the bond market as supply shocks are absorbed [19] Asset Allocation - HSBC Jintrust Fund highlights that global liquidity easing will create diverse asset allocation opportunities, with A-shares expected to show a low valuation and technology-driven market [21]

Core Insights - The emergence of AI Agents marks a significant shift from AI as an auxiliary tool to a core productivity driver, reshaping industry logic and unlocking trillion-dollar market potential [1][5] Group 1: AI Agent Development - Major tech companies are actively developing AI Agents, which are defined as systems that utilize large language models (LLMs) to autonomously manage workflows and tools, moving beyond traditional AI capabilities [2][3] - AI Agents can perform complex tasks such as online ordering and investment decision-making, demonstrating their ability to replace certain human functions rather than merely assist [2][4] Group 2: Market Potential and Commercialization - The global AI programming market is currently valued at approximately $3 billion, with projections to reach $23 billion by 2030 and a long-term potential nearing $700 billion [5] - AI Agents are penetrating various industries, with finance, programming, and government sectors leading the way as benchmark scenarios for technology empowerment [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The Chinese AI Agent market is expected to reach ¥147.3 billion by 2024, with a projected growth to over ¥3.3 trillion by 2028, indicating significant enterprise adoption potential [6] - Despite the optimistic outlook, challenges such as high entry barriers, safety concerns, and reliability issues remain, as the industry is still in its early stages [6]