玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/04/28 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1300 | 34.52% | 77.1% | | 纯碱 | 1200-1400 | 19.66% | 10.9% | source： 南华研究 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | | | 套保比例 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | （%） | 建议入场区间 | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 | | | | | | | 库 | | 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1250-1300 | | | 存 | 产成品库存偏 ...

戴一帆：Z0015428 周燕勤：F03129302 黄思婕：F03130744 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 周度观点 南华苯乙烯产业链数据周报20250427 港口去库，基差走弱 | | 上游(纯苯) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 截至4月24日，石油苯开工率71.1%，环比+0.8%;加氢苯开工率58.2%,环比-3.1%。据评估，2025年3月韩国出口纯苯总计31.48 万吨,其中出口至中国29.02万吨。 | | | 库存 | 截至4月21日,江苏纯莱港口库存12.1万吨,较上期去库2.1万吨,环比下降14.79%。 | | | | 中游(苯乙烯) | | | 供应 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯开工率67.9%,环比+1.1% | | | 库存 | 截至2025年4月21日，江苏莱乙烯港口库存8.65万吨，较上周期去库0.91万吨，幅度一9.52%；截至2025年4月24日，中国苯乙烯 | | | | 工厂样本库存量21.63万吨,较上一周期增减少0.22万吨,环比减少1%。 | | | 利润 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯一体化利润在-379元/吨附 ...

展望后市，从短期市场驱动因素分析，前期致使美元走弱的核心因素 —— 国际贸易局势，现阶段出 现了短暂的边际缓和迹象。这一变化对市场风险偏好形成了支撑，在一定程度上，可能促使美元指数呈现 技术性修复态势。然而，从中期基本面视角审视，美国经济增长前景依旧低迷，其黯淡状况并未得到根本 性扭转，这对美元持续走强构成了实质性约束。美元兑人民币即期汇率方面，临近五一假期，市场交易活 跃度可能有所下降，大概率延续前期态势，在一定区间内保持相对稳定。不过，在假期期间，需重点关注 以下宏观风险因素： 1）贸易摩擦的不确定性依然存在，关税主题后续的演绎方向和程度仍需高度警惕，其发展态势或对 市场预期产生重大影响； 2）特朗普政府政策与美联储货币政策之间存在根本性矛盾，这一矛盾的解决路径及演变过程，将在 较大程度上左右金融市场走向； 3）受关税威胁影响下的5月初相关经济数据表现，尤其是五一假期间公布的非农就业数据。 风险点：海外货币政策调整超预期、地缘政治冲突超预期、特朗普非常规出牌 南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 五一假期临近，注意宏观风险 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 ...

Group 1 - Multiple banks have issued warnings about the risks of gold investment, particularly regarding the use of credit cards for purchasing gold, which is considered a violation of regulations [1] - The "Guzi" economy, centered around anime and gaming merchandise, is projected to reach a market size of 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 40.63% from 2023 [1] - The first public appearance of a megawatt-level helium refrigeration machine marks a significant breakthrough in China's low-temperature technology, with a liquefaction rate of 3,370 liters per hour [1] Group 2 - The first embodied intelligent robot sports event in Wuxi showcased advancements in robotics, with local companies making progress in key technologies [2] - MIT has created a unique "periodic table" of machine learning algorithms, highlighting over 20 classic algorithms and their interconnections, which may enhance AI model development [2] - Harvard University is exploring the sale of approximately $1 billion in private equity fund assets as part of a financial strategy following a federal funding freeze [2] Group 3 - Meituan clarified rumors regarding account suspensions due to alleged use of dual-opening or JD software, attributing the misinformation to malicious editing of a legitimate warning [3][4] - Tianhe Environmental Protection has terminated its IPO plans on the Beijing Stock Exchange, which aimed to raise 180 million yuan for various projects [4] - The first quarter performance report of several futures companies indicates a significant divergence in results, with some companies experiencing substantial growth while others face declines [5] Group 4 - Tianli Lithium Energy announced that its subsidiary's land use rights have been seized due to a lawsuit, with a three-year freeze period [6] - Ningbo Shuntong received a written warning from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for inaccuracies in its financial data disclosures [6] - Rixin Technology reported overdue bank loans totaling 39.7 million yuan, and is in discussions with the bank to secure funds for repayment [7] Group 5 - A private education institution from Chengdu has emerged in the A-share market, acquiring significant stakes in multiple companies, with total holdings exceeding 55 million yuan [8] - Changchun High-tech reported its first decline in revenue and net profit in a decade, with a 7.55% drop in revenue to 13.466 billion yuan and a 43.01% decrease in net profit to 2.583 billion yuan [8]

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures reported a significant decline in revenue for Q1 2025, with a 46.2% year-on-year drop to 534 million yuan, while net profit saw a slight increase of 0.13% to 85.7383 million yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - The revenue decline is attributed to the adoption of net method for revenue recognition in commodity trading, which does not affect net profit [2] - Core business performance is under pressure, with net commission income down 22.7% to 107 million yuan and net interest income down 20.5% to 143 million yuan [2] - Other business income fell by 60.9% to 270 million yuan, a decrease of 420 million yuan year-on-year [2] Wealth Management - As of the end of Q1, the asset management scale of Nanhua Fund decreased to 11.806 billion yuan, a drop of 45.2% year-on-year, primarily due to market fluctuations in the bond sector [2] Cost Management - The company managed to reduce management expenses from 172 million yuan to 156 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 3.52% to 32% [2] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow saw a drastic decline of 354% to -11.758 billion yuan, with cash outflows related to operations increasing significantly [3] IPO and Capital Strategy - Nanhua Futures is accelerating its IPO process in Hong Kong, having submitted its application on April 17, aiming to enhance its capital structure and competitiveness in overseas markets [4] - The company views its overseas business as a crucial growth area, with overseas revenue reaching 654 million yuan in 2024, a 15.32% increase [4] - Since its A-share listing in 2019, Nanhua Futures has raised capital multiple times to support its expansion, including a recent 1.2 billion yuan convertible bond issuance plan [4][5] Overall Business Outlook - Despite profit growth, overall revenue has been declining, indicating a need for capital replenishment to expand overseas market operations [5]

瑞财经 王敏 4月21日，南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"南华期货"）发布2025年第一季度报告。 | | | | 单位: 元 巾神:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | | | | | 增减变动幅度(%) | | 营业收入 | 533, 712, 383. 94 | 992, 083, 545. 23 | -46. 20 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净 利润 | 85, 738, 272. 20 | 85, 623, 759, 78 | 0. 13 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣 | 85, 649, 688. 65 | 85. 018. 198. 61 | 0. 74 | | 除非经常性损益的净利润 | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量 | -11.758.175.827.18 | -2,588, 971, 322. 30 | -354. 16 | | 净额 | | | | | 基本每股收益(元/股) | 0.14 | 0. 14 | | 2025年一季度，南华期货实现营业收入为5.34亿元，同比下降46.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Nanhua Futures, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - Nanhua Futures reported a total operating revenue of 530 million yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 46.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 90 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from its upcoming listing in Hong Kong, which could strengthen its competitive edge in overseas markets [9][10]. - The report highlights a significant decline in net interest income and commission income, with respective year-on-year decreases of 20.5% and 22.1% [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A, the main revenue is projected at 5,711.61 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.6%. The net profit is expected to be 457.97 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 14.0% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be 0.88 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.06 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.52, 13.48, and 12.05 [4][10]. - The total market capitalization of Nanhua Futures is reported at 7.778 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 89.41% [6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the high interest rate environment will continue to support the company's overseas net interest income growth [9]. - The company has submitted an application for a stock listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its international presence and solidify its competitive advantages in overseas markets [9][10].

Core Points - The company guarantees the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the quarterly report, and assumes legal responsibility for any false records or misleading statements [1][5][10] Financial Data - The first quarter financial statements are not audited [2] - The report includes major accounting data and financial indicators, but specific figures are not provided in the text [2][3] Shareholder Information - Information regarding the total number of common shareholders and the top ten shareholders is mentioned, but specific details are not provided [3] Board Meeting - The fourth board meeting was held on April 18, 2025, with all seven directors present, and the meeting procedures complied with legal regulations [6][8] - The board approved the proposal regarding the 2025 first quarter report [6][7] Supervisory Meeting - The fourth supervisory meeting was also held on April 18, 2025, with all three supervisors present, and the meeting procedures complied with legal regulations [11][12] - The supervisory board approved the proposal regarding the 2025 first quarter report, confirming that the report's preparation and review processes met all regulatory requirements [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for Nanhua Futures [1] Core Views - Nanhua Futures reported a stable net profit year-on-year in Q1 2025, despite a significant decline in revenue, primarily due to changes in revenue recognition methods [7][8] - The company has formally submitted its application to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its competitiveness in overseas markets [7][8] - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.39 billion, 5.88 billion, and 6.66 billion respectively, indicating growth rates of 17.72%, 9.15%, and 13.16% [7][8] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 534 million, down 46.2% year-on-year, while net profit was 86 million, up 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The decline in revenue was attributed to a significant drop in net commission income and interest income, with net commission income falling by 22.7% and interest income by 20.5% [7] - Investment income showed a positive turnaround, contributing 18 million in Q1 2025 [7] Cost and Expense Management - Overall expenses decreased in line with revenue, with business and management fees down 9.3% to 156 million [7] - Credit impairment losses significantly decreased by 65% to 7 million [7] - Other business costs also fell by 61.6% to 266 million, reflecting the decline in other business income [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - Nanhua Futures is positioned to become the second "A+H" listed futures company in China, following Hongye Futures, which could enhance its market presence [7] - The company is expected to continue leveraging its strengths in overseas clearing and risk management capabilities [7]

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-027 南华期货股份有限公司 第四届监事会第十七次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、监事会会议召开情况 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届监事会第十七次会议于 2025 年 4 月 18 日以现场和通讯相结合的方式召开，本次会议的通知于 2025 年 4 月 9 日以电话、电子邮件等方式向全体监事发出，由厉国平先生主持。本次会 议应出席监事 3 人，实际出席监事 3 人。本次会议的召集、召开及表决程序符合 《公司法》及《公司章程》的有关规定，会议决议合法有效。 二、监事会会议审议情况 本次会议审议并通过如下议案： 监事会认为，公司 2025 年第一季度报告的编制和审议程序符合法律、法规、 《公司章程》和公司内部管理制度的规定；公司 2025 年第一季度报告的内容和 格式符合中国证监会和上海证券交易所的规定，所包含的信息真实地反映了公司 报告期的经营管理情况和财务状况；未发现参与公司 2025 年第一季度报告编制 和 ...