Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings that met expectations, with a revenue of 58.94 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year [1] - The nickel segment maintained stable production and overproduction to offset price declines, while rising cobalt prices contributed to profit growth [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 21.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.3% - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.505 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase and a 3.2% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] Industry Trends - The company is advancing key projects and strengthening its integrated industrial advantages, including new stakes in two laterite nickel mines and a 63% increase in lithium resources from the Arcadia lithium mine [2] - The tightening supply and demand dynamics are driving cobalt prices up, with the Democratic Republic of Congo's new export quotas expected to tighten the market further [2] - The commercial application of solid-state batteries is anticipated to boost demand for ternary batteries, with projections indicating a tight supply-demand situation in the cobalt industry from 2025 to 2027 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the significant rise in cobalt prices, the company's profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 20.3% and 54.3%, respectively, to 5.92 billion yuan and 8.33 billion yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 for 2025 and 14.3 for 2026, with a target price increase of 72.1% to 74.56 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 19.1% from the current stock price [3]

Macro and Strategy Research - The actual GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8%, matching expectations but down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, indicating economic resilience despite a slight slowdown [2][3] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 5.2% [2] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, indicating a need for structural optimization in investment [2][3] Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds mostly declined, with an overall change of -7 basis points to 0 basis points, indicating a slight market recovery [6] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes showing positive net financing [6] - The overall credit bond yield is expected to enter a downward channel in the long term, with a focus on adjusting strategies during market fluctuations [6][8] Company Research: Zijin Mining (601899) - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan, up 55.45% [9][10] - Gold, copper, and silver production increased year-on-year, with gold production rising by 19.68% and copper by 5.12% [10] - The successful listing of Zijin Gold International on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange raised approximately 28.7 billion HKD, enhancing the company's resource base [11][12] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt (603799) - Huayou Cobalt achieved a revenue of 58.941 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 29.57% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% [14][15] - The company's integrated operations and rising cobalt prices significantly contributed to its performance [15] - Long-term supply contracts with LGES for ternary precursor materials are expected to support future revenue growth [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Huayou Cobalt in Q3 2025, driven by integrated operations and rising cobalt prices, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 4.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 21.74 billion yuan, marking a 40.9% year-on-year growth and a 12.4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Operational Highlights - The integrated operational advantages are evident, with nickel wet-process capacity gradually being released, leading to sustained overproduction. In the first half of 2025, MHP shipments reached approximately 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with expectations for continued overproduction in Q3 [5]. - Cobalt prices have shown significant recovery, with average prices in China for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 192,000 yuan/ton, 239,000 yuan/ton, and 267,000 yuan/ton respectively, primarily benefiting from the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Project Developments - The Pomalaa project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons, is progressing well [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is in the equipment installation phase and is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. - The first phase of the ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, has achieved bulk supply, and the first phase of the cathode material project in Hungary, with a capacity of 25,000 tons, is expected to be completed within the year [6]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo, effective from October 16, 2025, allows for exports of 36,250 tons in Q4 2025 and a total of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027. This change is expected to support cobalt prices in the coming years [7]. - Based on the estimated cobalt production reduction of 141,600 tons during the export ban period, and assuming stable demand, the cobalt supply-demand balance for 2025-2027 is projected to be -75,000 tons, -33,000 tons, and -33,000 tons respectively, indicating a potential supply deficit [7].

Summary of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd - **Ticker**: 603799.SS - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: Rmb104,001 million - **Current Share Price**: Rmb61.46 (as of October 17, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb76.00, indicating a 24% upside potential Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb1.5 billion, up 11.5% YoY and 3% QoQ [1] - **1H25 Profit**: Rmb4.2 billion, up 40% YoY [1] - **Revenue**: Increased approximately 12% QoQ to Rmb21.7 billion [1] - **Gross Margin**: Remained stable at 16.2% [1] - **Gross Profit**: Increased by approximately Rmb400 million (13% QoQ) to Rmb3.5 billion [1] - **Financial Expenses**: Increased by Rmb206 million QoQ, likely due to foreign exchange losses [1] - **Effective Tax Rate**: 16.1% in 3Q25 compared to 8.7% in 2Q25 [1] - **Net Gearing**: Decreased by 7.2 percentage points QoQ to 55.7% due to the conversion of Rmb7 billion convertible bonds into equity [1] Market Dynamics - **Cobalt Prices**: Expected to rise, with a 14% increase in October and a 34% increase in 3Q25, driven by the DRC's extended cobalt export ban and new export quotas [2] - **Production Capacity**: Huayou can achieve approximately 10% cobalt production as a byproduct from its HPAL nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia, estimated at 12,000 tons attributable production in 2025 [2] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Price target derived from a DCF model with a WACC of 10.9% and a steady-state revenue growth rate of 2% [7] - **Upside Risks**: Improvement in cobalt prices, copper price hikes, rising sales volume of NCM precursors, and cost declines on self-supply of nickel raw materials [9] - **Downside Risks**: Lower-than-expected cobalt and copper prices, weaker-than-expected demand affecting precursor sales volume, and slower ramp-up of Indonesia nickel projects [9] Analyst Ratings - **Stock Rating**: Overweight [4] - **Industry View**: Attractive [4] Additional Insights - **Earnings Consistency**: Financial results are in line with estimates, indicating stable performance amidst market fluctuations [1] - **Future Outlook**: Continued benefits from rising cobalt prices are anticipated, positioning Huayou favorably in the market [2]

Core Points - The company has repaid a total of RMB 534.90 million of temporarily used idle raised funds as of October 17, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Fundraising and Usage - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. approved the use of idle raised funds to temporarily supplement working capital, not exceeding RMB 550 million, during a board meeting on March 10, 2025 [1] - The duration for the temporary use of these funds is up to 12 months from the board's approval date, with a commitment to return the funds to the designated account upon maturity [1] Group 2: Repayment Status - As of the announcement date, the company has fully repaid the raised funds used for temporary working capital back to the designated account [2] - The company has notified the sponsor institution and the sponsor representative regarding the repayment status [2]

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a rise of 1.83% on October 21, with Huayou Cobalt leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Energy Metals Sector Performance - Huayou Cobalt (603799) closed at 62.62, with a gain of 3.45% and a trading volume of 887,300 shares [1] - Zangge Mining (000408) closed at 56.70, up 2.42%, with a trading volume of 117,700 shares [1] - Tengyuan Mining (301219) closed at 66.56, increasing by 2.10%, with a trading volume of 63,900 shares [1] - Jizhong Mining (600711) closed at 10.38, up 1.96%, with a trading volume of 1,204,100 shares [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) closed at 61.59, with a gain of 1.48% and a trading volume of 648,700 shares [1] - Other notable performances include Sai Rui Mining (300618) at 48.66 (+1.23%), Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) at 19.30 (+1.21%), and Boqian New Materials (605376) at 56.11 (+1.19%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 319 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 266 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for key stocks include: - Huayou Cobalt: Net inflow of 31.3 million yuan from main funds [3] - Zangge Mining: Net inflow of 39.36 million yuan from main funds [3] - Ganfeng Lithium: Net inflow of 36.95 million yuan from main funds [3] - Jizhong Mining: Net inflow of 34.01 million yuan from main funds [3] - Retail investors showed significant outflows in several stocks, including Zangge Mining and Ganfeng Lithium, indicating a cautious sentiment among retail participants [3]

Core Insights - On October 20, 2023, brokerage firms set target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and Hikvision, showing target price increases of 56.95%, 46.86%, and 33.19% respectively, across the energy metals, industrial metals, and computer equipment sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Huayou Cobalt received a target price of 95.00 yuan, reflecting a target price increase of 56.95% [2] - Zijin Mining's target price is set at 43.69 yuan, with a target price increase of 46.86% [2] - Hikvision's target price stands at 43.10 yuan, showing a target price increase of 33.19% [2] - Other companies with significant target price increases include Gaoneng Environment (29.80%), Zhuhai Guanyu (27.80%), and Sankeshu (27.28%) [2] Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 32 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on October 20, with Hikvision receiving 5 recommendations, Zijin Mining 4, and Sankeshu 3 [3] - The only downgrade noted was for Haiguang Information, which was lowered from "Buy" to "Range Trading" by Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) [3][4] Group 3: First-Time Coverage - On October 20, 2023, there were 5 instances of first-time coverage by brokerages, including Morning Light Biological receiving a "Buy" rating from Shanxi Securities, and Baihehua receiving an "Add" rating from China Merchants Securities [4] - Weigao Blood Products was rated "Add" by Dongguan Securities, Tiannai Technology received a "Buy" rating from Northeast Securities, and Nine Company was rated "Add" by Huayuan Securities [4]

Core Viewpoint - A total of 80 stocks have shown a continuous improvement in net profit for two consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in profitability [1] Group 1: Profitability Trends - As of the third quarter of 2025, 80 stocks have reported profitability with both the third and second quarters showing sequential net profit growth [1] - Continuous improvement in net profit suggests that these companies are in a phase of sustained profitability enhancement [1] Group 2: Valuation Levels - Among the 80 stocks with improving performance, 29 have a rolling price-to-earnings (PE) ratio below 30 times [1] - Xinhua Insurance has the lowest rolling PE ratio at 7.01 times, while several companies like Zijin Mining, Hanhua Environment, and others have PE ratios ranging from 10 to 20 times [1] Group 3: Capital Inflows - Recently, some low PE ratio stocks with continuous performance improvement have attracted increased investment from financing clients [1] - As of October 20, 2023, seven stocks have seen net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since October, with Zijin Mining leading at a net purchase of 2.349 billion yuan [1]

10月21日，华友钴业盘中上涨2.02%，截至09:42，报61.75元/股，成交8.77亿元，换手率0.76%，总市值 1172.80亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入3647.52万元，特大单买入1.36亿元，占比15.53%，卖出9093.91万元， 占比10.37%；大单买入2.10亿元，占比23.95%，卖出2.19亿元，占比24.96%。 华友钴业今年以来股价涨114.66%，近5个交易日跌5.25%，近20日涨18.18%，近60日涨58.74%。 分红方面，华友钴业A股上市后累计派现38.76亿元。近三年，累计派现28.35亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，华友钴业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1.48亿股，相比上期减少167.23万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第四大流通股 东，持股2341.21万股，相比上期减少84.31万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第六大流通股东， 持股1814.17万股，相比上期增加84.01万股。广发国证新能源车电池ETF（159755）位居第七大流通股 东，持股1641.81万股， ...

南财投研通数据显示，10月20日，券商给予上市公司目标价共19次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排 名居前的公司有华友钴业、紫金矿业、海康威视，目标价涨幅分别为56.95%、46.86%、33.19%，分别 属于能源金属、工业金属、计算机设备行业。 评级调低方面，10月20日，群益证券(香港)对海光信息的评级从"买进"调低至"区间操作"。 | | | 1家最新被调低评级的公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 证券名称 | 机构 | 此前评级 | 最新评级 | 行业 | | 688041 海光信息 | 群益证券(香港) | 买进 | 区间操作 | 半导体 | | | | 日期：10月20日，南财投研通×南财快讯制图 | | | 首次覆盖方面，10月20日券商共给出了5次首次覆盖，其中晨光生物获得山西证券给予"买入"评级，百 合花获得招商证券给予"增持"评级，威高血净获得东莞证券给予"增持"评级，天奈科技获得东北证券给 予"买入"评级，九号公司获得华源证券给予"增持"评级。 | | | | 10月20日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | ...