截至12月24日，中证申万有色金属指数年内涨幅高达88%，创下近年来罕见的年度涨幅纪录。伦敦现货 黄金站上4500美元/盎司，LME铜价突破1.21万美元/吨，纽约银年内涨幅翻倍，钴价从年初16万元/吨反 弹至年末超40万元/吨，一系列核心品种价格屡破历史新高。 这场行情早已超越传统供需驱动的周期逻辑，成为全球产业链重构、AI浪潮崛起与央行资产配置调整 共同作用的必然结果。有色金属行业正从"被动跟随周期的工业原料"，向"主动定义价值的战略核心资 源"完成深刻转型。 头部企业凭借资源卡位与产业链一体化优势，实现股价与业绩的"戴维斯双击"，而AI、新能源等新兴领 域的需求爆发，更让钨、钽、钴等品种迎来价值重估。 华夏时报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 周期迭代藏机遇，资源重估启新程。 2025年资本市场的收官钟声临近，有色金属板块以领涨主线姿态贯穿全年，勾勒出全年资本市场的景气 主线。 在全球经济转型与技术革命的交汇点上，2025年的金属牛市不仅是价格的狂欢，更是行业高质量发展的 新起点，其背后的供需重构与企业转型逻辑，正重塑全球有色金属产业格局。 有色牛市下 金属行情分化与共性 供需两端的双向发力，是本 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The cobalt market is experiencing significant changes due to delays in the export of cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), leading to a reduction in China's cobalt inventory and a subsequent rise in cobalt prices since December [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Surge**: The price of electrolytic cobalt in Wuxi has reached 436,000 yuan, marking a new high for the year. This increase aligns with previous expectations discussed in early December [2]. - **Supply Chain Disruptions**: The DRC's cobalt export process is still under approval, causing delays that are expected to extend into January. This has resulted in a significant reduction in China's cobalt inventory, which is projected to drop to approximately 8,000 tons by the end of April 2024, enough for only half a month's usage [3][4]. - **Future Price Predictions**: It is anticipated that cobalt prices could reach an average of 500,000 to 600,000 yuan per ton in 2026, driven by potential supply shortages and increased demand as companies prepare for possible disruptions [1][6]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies with Indonesian MHP production capacity, such as Huayou Cobalt, Greeenmei, and Tengyuan Cobalt, are expected to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices. Huayou Cobalt's MHP capacity of 230,000 to 240,000 tons will notably enhance its profit elasticity [1][5]. - **Nickel Market Dynamics**: Nickel prices have rebounded due to news from the Indonesian nickel mining sector, but the long-term trend remains uncertain. Strict enforcement of nickel mining quotas by the Indonesian government could shift the market from surplus to a balanced state, benefiting companies like Huayou Cobalt and Greenmei [1][7]. - **Lithium Market Outlook**: The lithium market remains stable, although some lithium iron phosphate companies plan to reduce production temporarily. Overall demand for lithium is expected to depend on battery production schedules. Huayou Cobalt's lithium business is projected to be profitable, especially with the expansion of the Arcadia project [3][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment indicates a potential "short squeeze" scenario for cobalt prices in 2026, as companies may prefer to engage in arbitrage rather than production due to cost imbalances [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with robust production reserves, such as Huayou Cobalt, Luxshare Precision, and Greenmei, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming market trends [7][8].

信任命 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 会属价格强势突破,看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示: 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 4.06%，铝上涨 6.33%， 能源金属上涨 6.66%，小金属上涨 6.16%，铜上涨 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for strategic metals investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [3][5][11]. Market Review: Strategic Metals Lead Nonferrous - From the beginning of the year until December 18, 2025, the nonferrous metals sector has risen by 78.53%, ranking second among all industries. Strategic metals have shown significant gains, with tungsten up 136.7%, cobalt up 69.1%, and rare earth permanent magnets up 56.7% [7]. Cobalt: Supply Tightening from Congo (DRC) - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented an export quota system for cobalt, leading to a projected supply-demand imbalance of -7.5/-3.3/-3.3 million tons for 2025-2027. The DRC's export ban and subsequent quota system are expected to keep cobalt prices elevated [3][14][16]. Rare Earths: Supply Expectations Tightening - The rare earth sector is experiencing tightening supply due to strategic export controls and a lack of public quota announcements. The price of light rare earths has seen fluctuations, with a peak price of 64.30 million yuan/ton for praseodymium and neodymium oxides in August 2025, followed by a decline [22][26][46]. Tungsten: Continued Supply-Demand Gap - The tungsten market is facing a supply squeeze due to mining restrictions and declining ore grades. Demand remains stable, supported by applications in military and photovoltaic sectors, suggesting that tungsten prices are likely to rise [3][5]. Tin: Supply Tightness and AI Demand Growth - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar is slow, with significant delays expected. However, the rapid development of AI is emerging as a new growth driver for tin demand [3][5]. Antimony: Export Recovery Expected - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is anticipated to boost China's antimony exports, which currently account for 36% of its production. The lifting of these restrictions is expected to enhance export volumes significantly [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the tightening supply of strategic metals, including Huayou Cobalt, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Specific recommendations include companies with significant cobalt production quotas in the DRC and those involved in rare earth processing [5][3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain bullish, supported by ongoing inventory depletion and supply-side disruptions [8][27] - Nickel prices may find support due to potential reductions in Indonesia's nickel ore quotas and additional taxes on associated resources [1][27] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise further due to a persistent supply shortage, with structural tightness expected to last for the next two years [5][17] - The antimony market is expected to see prices converge towards higher international levels due to export restrictions and tight supply [6][19] - The rare earth industry remains dominated by China, despite overseas efforts to develop supply chains, with significant supply tightening expected [9][20] - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [11][21] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing supply tightness and regulatory controls on mining quotas [13][22] - Uranium prices are likely to be supported by ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical factors affecting global energy security [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore production target is set to be reduced to 250 million tons, down 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, to prevent further price declines [1][27] - The Indonesian government plans to classify cobalt and iron as independent commodities and impose a royalty tax of 1.5%-2%, potentially generating an additional $600 million annually [1][27] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise towards international levels due to export controls and tight supply conditions [6][19] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 97,700 CNY/ton, with a 3.27% increase [8][27] - Supply stability is expected from lithium salt plants, while demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets remains strong [8][27] Rare Earth Industry Update - China continues to dominate global rare earth supply, with new export restrictions from Vietnam further tightening the market [9][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - Supply tightness in the tungsten market is expected to persist due to regulatory controls and reduced mining quotas [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical factors are expected to support uranium prices in the near term [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the results of the 2024 restricted stock incentive plan of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., including the number of shares granted, the pricing, and the adjustments made to the plan due to participation issues. Group 1: Initial Grant of Restricted Stock - The 2024 incentive plan involves granting 19.1893 million shares, representing 1.13% of the total share capital, with an initial grant of 15.3515 million shares (0.90%) and a reserved grant of 3.8378 million shares (0.23%) [2] - The first grant date was set for January 23, 2025, with 1,298 eligible participants initially, but this was adjusted to 1,161 participants and 9.3493 million shares due to non-participation [3] Group 2: Reserved Grant of Restricted Stock - On October 29, 2025, the company approved the reserved grant of 1.1110 million shares to 302 eligible participants, which was later adjusted to 176 participants and 0.6302 million shares due to non-participation [4] - The reserved grant price was set at 30.91 yuan per share [4] Group 3: Terms of the Incentive Plan - The incentive plan is valid for a maximum of 48 months from the completion of the restricted stock grant registration [5] - The lock-up period for the reserved shares is set at 12 and 24 months, during which the shares cannot be transferred or used as collateral [6] Group 4: Financial Impact and Fund Usage - The total funds raised from the reserved stock grant amount to 19,479,482 yuan, which will be used to supplement the company's working capital [12] - The accounting costs associated with the incentive plan will be amortized over the vesting period, impacting the company's financial results [12][13] Group 5: Share Capital Changes - Following the completion of the reserved stock grant registration, the total number of shares increased from 1,896,097,297 to 1,896,727,497, with the controlling shareholder's ownership percentage slightly decreasing from 20.63% to 20.62% [10]

证券代码：603799 证券简称：华友钴业 公告编号：2025-136 浙江华友钴业股份有限公司 关于 2024 年限制性股票激励计划预留授予结果公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 限制性股票登记日 | 2025年12月25日 | | --- | --- | | 限制性股票登记数量 | 630,200股 | 一、股权激励计划首次授予基本情况 浙江华友钴业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2024 年股权激励计划（以 下简称"本次激励计划"）方式为限制性股票，股份来源为公司向激励对象定向 发行公司 A 股普通股，拟授予的权益数量为 1,918.93 万股，占公司总股本（截 止 2024 年 12 月 27 日可转债转股后公司股本总额 1,697,214,928 股）比例为 1.13%。其中，首次授予的权益数量为 1,535.15 万股，占公司总股本比例为 0.90%； 预留授予的权益数量为 383.78 万股，占公司总股本比例为 0.23%。具体内容详见 公司 2024 年 12 月 31 日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the photovoltaic equipment and new energy battery sectors, with significant gains in related stocks such as BYD and Tianhua New Energy, reflecting a robust market for new energy vehicles and batteries [1] - The Xinyin Guozheng New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF (159767) has achieved a one-year return of 59.33%, indicating strong investor interest and market confidence in the sector [1] - The fund manager emphasizes the substantial market potential for power batteries, projected to reach trillions, driven by increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, clear policy support, accelerated technological iterations, and enhanced global competitiveness of Chinese companies [1] Group 2 - The battery leader ETF (159767) closely tracks the Guozheng New Energy Vehicle Battery Index, which reflects the market performance of listed companies in the new energy vehicle battery industry in the A-share market [2] - The ETF consists of 30 constituent stocks, with the top ten holdings including CATL, BYD, and Ganfeng Lithium, showcasing a diversified investment in leading companies within the sector [2] - The current management and custody fees for the battery leader ETF are 0.60% per year, which is lower than the industry average, making it suitable for both retail and professional investors [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights a sustained high growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales across nine European countries in November 2025, with a total of 281,000 new energy vehicles sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.6% and a penetration rate of 34.3%, up by 9.0 percentage points [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In November 2025, battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales reached 190,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.5%, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales totaled 91,000 units, up by 35.0% [1][2]. - Germany's BEV sales were 56,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 58.5%, and PHEV sales were 32,000 units, up by 57.4% [2][3]. - France's BEV sales reached 34,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.5%, with a penetration rate of 25.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points [3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The implementation of subsidies in France and Italy has led to a rapid increase in BEV sales, with Italy experiencing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 131.4% in BEV sales, totaling 15,000 units [3]. - The UK has restarted EV subsidies and is under pressure from zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets, which is expected to sustain growth in EV sales in the coming months [2][3]. - Norway is anticipated to see a surge in electric vehicle purchases as the year-end approaches, driven by consumer demand [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets is not expected to hinder the long-term trend of electrification in Europe; instead, it may promote sales of small electric vehicles [4]. - New generations of pure electric models are set to be launched by various automakers from late 2025 to the first half of 2026, which is likely to boost the European EV market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations include companies involved in lithium batteries, lithium materials, battery structural components, power/electric drive systems, automotive safety components, and charging infrastructure [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment in lithium batteries include CATL, EVE Energy, and Xinwangda, while lithium material companies include Hunan Youneng and Tianci Materials [4].