Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2250 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is expected to grow by 48.3% [5]. - The demand surge will create substantial pressure on the supply of battery cells and four key upstream materials, highlighting a potential supply gap that needs to be addressed for stable and efficient supply chains [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the 2025 authoritative lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Speakers - The main forum will cover topics such as the outlook for lithium ore resource supply, operational strategies for lithium carbonate in the current market environment, and advancements in high-energy-density power battery technology [9]. - Sub-forums will address critical materials for power batteries and energy storage, including discussions on solid-state battery technology and market trends for electrolytes and separators [10][11]. Group 4: Participation and Costs - The participation fee for the conference is set at 2800 yuan per person, with a limited-time free attendance option available for the first 200 registrants [17].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Huabao ETF (159876), which encompasses leading companies in the non-ferrous metals industry, shows resilience with a recent price increase of 0.52% after an initial drop of 2%, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [1][7]. Fund Performance - As of the latest report, the Huabao ETF has seen a net subscription of 28.8 million shares, with an additional inflow of 15.36 million yuan the previous day, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the non-ferrous metals sector [1][7]. - The current trading price of the Huabao ETF is 0.974, with a gain of 0.005, representing a 0.52% increase [1][7]. Leading Stocks - Key stocks within the ETF include Tianshan Aluminum, which rose by 4.41%, and Yun Aluminum, which increased by 4.22%. Other notable performers include Jiangxi Copper, China Aluminum, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all of which saw gains exceeding 2% [2][8]. Market Trends - The overall metal market has been on an upward trend, particularly in precious metals, energy metals, and industrial metals, with significant price increases observed [9]. - The recent announcement by the CME Group to raise margin requirements for various metal futures, including gold and silver, has led to a decline in international metal futures prices [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new bull market driven by strong demand from "new productive forces," with supply constraints and diverse driving factors [3][9]. - The current bull market is characterized by a shift from traditional infrastructure-driven demand to one that integrates global energy transitions, technological revolutions, and industrial upgrades, with emerging fields such as new energy, new materials, AI, and aerospace being key growth drivers [3][9]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao ETF and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall beta performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, as it covers a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium [4][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance, with a 1.06% increase in share price, reaching 65.81 yuan per share, and a total market capitalization of 124.82 billion yuan [1] - Huayou Cobalt's main business involves the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials, with revenue composition including nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), and other segments [1] - The company is located in the Tongxiang Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province, and was established on May 22, 2002, with its listing date on January 29, 2015 [1] Group 2 - The fund "Shangyin Fengyi Mixed A" holds a significant position in Huayou Cobalt, with 16,000 shares representing 1.13% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 27.83% and ranks 3,387 out of 8,087 in its category, with a one-year return of 26.36% [2] - The fund manager, Gao Yong, has a tenure of 9 years and 6 days, with the fund's total asset size at 93.47 million yuan [3]

国信证券近日发布锂电产业链双周评：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思 源电气签署3年50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友 钴业与国际知名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年 27万吨订单。 固态电池产业化加速推进：材料端，欣旺达动力与中伟股份签署固态电池战略合作框架协议。电池端， 美国QuantumScape与全球前十汽车制造商签署联合开发固态电池协议；美国Factorial宣布，已与CGCT 达成最终业务合并协议，双方合并后Factorial将在纳斯达克挂牌上市；金龙羽拟设15亿元产业并购基 金，聚焦新能源固态电池产业链投资。 锂电产业链大单不断：电池端，宁德时代与岚图签署十年深化合作协议；宁德时代与思源电气签署3年 50GWh储能合作备忘录。材料端，宁德时代与韩国Enchem签署35万吨电解液订单；华友钴业与国际知 名客户签署7.96万吨三元前驱体订单；海科星源与法恩莱特签署电解液溶剂及添加剂3年27万吨订单。 多家磷酸铁锂企业公告进行部分产线检修：12月25日至26日，湖南裕能、万润新能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the index and various stocks experiencing notable gains, particularly in silver and copper prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.56%, with key stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up by 10.05% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up by 4.68% [1]. - The surge in precious metals, especially silver, is attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data, which has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with major players including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [3]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and includes 50 prominent securities from the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [2][4].

截至12月24日，中证申万有色金属指数年内涨幅高达88%，创下近年来罕见的年度涨幅纪录。伦敦现货 黄金站上4500美元/盎司，LME铜价突破1.21万美元/吨，纽约银年内涨幅翻倍，钴价从年初16万元/吨反 弹至年末超40万元/吨，一系列核心品种价格屡破历史新高。 这场行情早已超越传统供需驱动的周期逻辑，成为全球产业链重构、AI浪潮崛起与央行资产配置调整 共同作用的必然结果。有色金属行业正从"被动跟随周期的工业原料"，向"主动定义价值的战略核心资 源"完成深刻转型。 头部企业凭借资源卡位与产业链一体化优势，实现股价与业绩的"戴维斯双击"，而AI、新能源等新兴领 域的需求爆发，更让钨、钽、钴等品种迎来价值重估。 华夏时报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 周期迭代藏机遇，资源重估启新程。 2025年资本市场的收官钟声临近，有色金属板块以领涨主线姿态贯穿全年，勾勒出全年资本市场的景气 主线。 在全球经济转型与技术革命的交汇点上，2025年的金属牛市不仅是价格的狂欢，更是行业高质量发展的 新起点，其背后的供需重构与企业转型逻辑，正重塑全球有色金属产业格局。 有色牛市下 金属行情分化与共性 供需两端的双向发力，是本 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The cobalt market is experiencing significant changes due to delays in the export of cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), leading to a reduction in China's cobalt inventory and a subsequent rise in cobalt prices since December [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Surge**: The price of electrolytic cobalt in Wuxi has reached 436,000 yuan, marking a new high for the year. This increase aligns with previous expectations discussed in early December [2]. - **Supply Chain Disruptions**: The DRC's cobalt export process is still under approval, causing delays that are expected to extend into January. This has resulted in a significant reduction in China's cobalt inventory, which is projected to drop to approximately 8,000 tons by the end of April 2024, enough for only half a month's usage [3][4]. - **Future Price Predictions**: It is anticipated that cobalt prices could reach an average of 500,000 to 600,000 yuan per ton in 2026, driven by potential supply shortages and increased demand as companies prepare for possible disruptions [1][6]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies with Indonesian MHP production capacity, such as Huayou Cobalt, Greeenmei, and Tengyuan Cobalt, are expected to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices. Huayou Cobalt's MHP capacity of 230,000 to 240,000 tons will notably enhance its profit elasticity [1][5]. - **Nickel Market Dynamics**: Nickel prices have rebounded due to news from the Indonesian nickel mining sector, but the long-term trend remains uncertain. Strict enforcement of nickel mining quotas by the Indonesian government could shift the market from surplus to a balanced state, benefiting companies like Huayou Cobalt and Greenmei [1][7]. - **Lithium Market Outlook**: The lithium market remains stable, although some lithium iron phosphate companies plan to reduce production temporarily. Overall demand for lithium is expected to depend on battery production schedules. Huayou Cobalt's lithium business is projected to be profitable, especially with the expansion of the Arcadia project [3][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment indicates a potential "short squeeze" scenario for cobalt prices in 2026, as companies may prefer to engage in arbitrage rather than production due to cost imbalances [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with robust production reserves, such as Huayou Cobalt, Luxshare Precision, and Greenmei, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming market trends [7][8].

信任命 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 会属价格强势突破,看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示: 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 4.06%，铝上涨 6.33%， 能源金属上涨 6.66%，小金属上涨 6.16%，铜上涨 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 金属价格强势突破，看好春季行情 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万）指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for strategic metals investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [3][5][11]. Market Review: Strategic Metals Lead Nonferrous - From the beginning of the year until December 18, 2025, the nonferrous metals sector has risen by 78.53%, ranking second among all industries. Strategic metals have shown significant gains, with tungsten up 136.7%, cobalt up 69.1%, and rare earth permanent magnets up 56.7% [7]. Cobalt: Supply Tightening from Congo (DRC) - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented an export quota system for cobalt, leading to a projected supply-demand imbalance of -7.5/-3.3/-3.3 million tons for 2025-2027. The DRC's export ban and subsequent quota system are expected to keep cobalt prices elevated [3][14][16]. Rare Earths: Supply Expectations Tightening - The rare earth sector is experiencing tightening supply due to strategic export controls and a lack of public quota announcements. The price of light rare earths has seen fluctuations, with a peak price of 64.30 million yuan/ton for praseodymium and neodymium oxides in August 2025, followed by a decline [22][26][46]. Tungsten: Continued Supply-Demand Gap - The tungsten market is facing a supply squeeze due to mining restrictions and declining ore grades. Demand remains stable, supported by applications in military and photovoltaic sectors, suggesting that tungsten prices are likely to rise [3][5]. Tin: Supply Tightness and AI Demand Growth - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar is slow, with significant delays expected. However, the rapid development of AI is emerging as a new growth driver for tin demand [3][5]. Antimony: Export Recovery Expected - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is anticipated to boost China's antimony exports, which currently account for 36% of its production. The lifting of these restrictions is expected to enhance export volumes significantly [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the tightening supply of strategic metals, including Huayou Cobalt, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Specific recommendations include companies with significant cobalt production quotas in the DRC and those involved in rare earth processing [5][3].