晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive outlook for the non-ferrous metal sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic benefits, with specific attention to various metals like gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, and tungsten [1] Summary by Category Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from clear investment logic, with various metals poised to gain from supply-demand conflicts and favorable macroeconomic conditions [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) rose by 0.90%, and Huayou Cobalt increased by 3.68% [1] Precious Metals - The long-term trend of de-dollarization continues, coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a stable support for gold and silver [1] - Silver is expected to exhibit higher elasticity due to its financial and commodity attributes [1] Copper - Short-term price fluctuations do not alter the mid-term outlook for copper, with supply adjustments from Freeport intensifying the expected supply-demand tightness by 2026 [1] - Low inventory levels and fiscal stimulus expectations reinforce the value of buying on dips [1] Aluminum - Aluminum prices are benefiting from low inventory resilience and an explosion in energy storage demand, with price elasticity highlighted under supply disruptions [1] Tin - Tin prices are constrained by supply chain disruptions and slow recovery in Myanmar, with interest rate cuts expected to maintain high price levels [1] Tungsten - Tungsten prices are experiencing sustained increases due to upstream raw material shortages and overseas production halts, with short-term supply-demand conflicts remaining unresolved [1] Investment Opportunities - Overall, the non-ferrous metals sector presents significant investment value driven by improved liquidity expectations, rigid supply, and structurally growing demand [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) tracks the CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which includes 50 stocks with good liquidity and large market capitalization, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on December 23, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% at one point, reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 31 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 50 million yuan during the trading session [1]. - The ETF's performance indicators show a year-to-date increase of 87.92% and a 120-day increase of 62.58% [1]. - The ETF's top ten constituent stocks mostly experienced gains, with Shandong Gold (600547) up 6.72% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 3% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The spot gold price continued to rise, nearing $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 3%, continuing a trend of price increases, with expectations of further price support due to low inventory levels [7]. - Copper prices reached record highs, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The nonferrous metal sector is projected to maintain strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 90% year-to-date, positioning it as a leading industry [12]. - The 2026 outlook for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to expected demand improvements and supply constraints [10]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to grow, with lithium prices expected to continue their upward trend due to supply and demand dynamics [11].

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 132.70% and a recent surge of 16.48% over the past five trading days, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 23, Huayou Cobalt's stock price reached 66.94 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.668 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.15%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 126.925 billion CNY [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, with the most recent occurrence on October 9 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported a revenue of 58.941 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion CNY, which is a 39.59% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 3.876 billion CNY in dividends, with 2.835 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Huayou Cobalt had 257,100 shareholders, an increase of 31.78% from the previous period, with an average of 7,328 circulating shares per shareholder, down by 15.22% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 148 million shares, a decrease of 1.6723 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report predicts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 57.52 billion, 67.48 billion, and 80.84 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 3.03, 3.56, and 4.26 yuan, and PE ratios of 21, 18, and 15 times, respectively [1][5][6] - The target price for the company is set at 78.98 yuan per share, with a "Buy" rating assigned for the first coverage [1][5] Group 2: Nickel Market Analysis - Nickel prices are currently at a bottom level, with expectations of a cyclical turning point around 2027-2028, supported by significant investment scales in nickel projects that create financial and scale barriers [6][5] - The company has established a full industry chain layout from nickel ore to nickel intermediate products and nickel products, showcasing its core competitive advantages [6][5] Group 3: Cobalt Market Analysis - Cobalt supply is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with significant policy disruptions affecting supply, while demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics is steadily increasing [6][5] - The report anticipates that cobalt industry overcapacity will significantly ease by 2025, and the company's cobalt product business is expected to maintain or even increase its gross margin during periods of declining cobalt prices [6][5] Group 4: Battery Materials Outlook - The report highlights the potential for solid-state batteries to increase the market share of ternary materials, which are expected to see improved profitability due to upstream raw material security and downstream customer binding [7][5] - The company's ternary precursor and cathode materials business is projected to maintain industry-leading profitability, with a strong position expected to be reinforced as new projects come online [7][5] Group 5: Industry Trends - The industrial added value in China showed a year-on-year growth of 4.8% in November, indicating a stable economic development trend [9][10] - The U.S. CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, lower than expected, which has raised expectations for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [10][11]

南方财经12月23日电，南财投研通数据显示，12月22日有21家上市公司得到券商推荐，其中皖新传媒、 神开股份、鑫铂股份均获得1家推荐。从目标价涨幅来看，券商给予上市公司目标价共5次，按最新收盘 价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前的公司有五粮液、华友钴业、天振股份，目标价涨幅分别为94.87%、 20.38%、20.27%，分别属于白酒、能源金属、家居用品行业。 查看原文：五粮液目标价涨幅超90%，21股获推荐丨券商评级观察刚刚 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies, with notable gains for Wuliangye, Huayou Cobalt, and Tianzhen Co., with target price increases of 94.87%, 20.38%, and 20.27% respectively, across the liquor, energy metals, and home goods industries [1] - On December 22, a total of 21 listed companies received broker recommendations, with Wuxin Media, Shenkai Co., and Xinbo Co. each receiving one recommendation [1] - There was one instance of a rating upgrade on December 22, where Dongwu Securities raised the rating of Huasheng Lithium from "Hold" to "Buy" [1] Group 2 - On December 22, brokers provided 13 instances of initial coverage, with Shenkai Co. and Xinbo Co. receiving "Buy" ratings from Aijian Securities, Tianzhen Co. receiving an "Increase" rating from Tianfeng Securities, Hezhu Intelligent receiving an "Increase" rating from Northeast Securities, and Shenhuo Co. receiving a "Buy" rating from Xinda Securities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market perceives the company as a beta play following cobalt prices, but the greater focus should be on nickel, which is currently near its bottom price level, with a potential cyclical turning point expected around 2027-2028 [1] Group 1: Nickel Market Insights - Nickel project investments are substantial, presenting significant financial and scale barriers to entry [1] - The company has established a full industry chain layout from nickel ore to nickel intermediate products and nickel products, showcasing its core competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - The company is considered a relatively rare alpha-type company in the market [1] - A price-to-earnings ratio of 26 times is projected for 2025, with a target price set at 78.98 yuan per share, initiating coverage with a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 78.98 CNY per share based on a 26x PE for 2025 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to have a net profit of 57.52 billion, 67.48 billion, and 80.84 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with EPS of 3.03, 3.56, and 4.26 CNY respectively [2][25]. - The market views the company as a beta play on cobalt prices, but the report emphasizes that the greater opportunity lies in nickel, which is currently at a cyclical low and may see a turning point around 2027-2028 [2][19]. Summary by Sections Nickel - Nickel prices are at a cyclical low, with potential for a turning point in supply-demand dynamics by 2027-2028. The company has established a full industry chain from nickel mining to intermediate products and final products, showcasing significant competitive advantages [3][20]. - The investment scale for nickel projects is substantial, creating high barriers to entry, which further strengthens the company's market position [3][20]. Cobalt - Cobalt supply is concentrated in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with significant policy disruptions affecting exports. Demand is stable, driven by electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and high-temperature alloys [4][22]. - The company’s cobalt business has shown resilience, with gross margins increasing even during price declines, indicating strong competitive positioning [4][22]. Three-way Precursor and Cathode Materials - The report anticipates that solid-state batteries will increase the market share of ternary materials, leading to stable profitability for the company [4][23]. - The company benefits from upstream raw material security, midstream manufacturing scale effects, and strong customer relationships, which are expected to reinforce its leading position in the industry [4][23]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 746.85 billion, 830.75 billion, and 1,038.31 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 22.5%, 11.2%, and 25.0% respectively [18][25]. - The company’s gross margins are expected to be 16.0%, 16.6%, and 16.2% over the same period, reflecting stable operational efficiency [18][25].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温助推降息预期，金属 板块景气持续 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251215-20251219 究 报 告 相关研究 - 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.03%，深证成指下跌 0.89%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，有色金属 ...