1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - **Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - **Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - **Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - **Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - **Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil)**: Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - **Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp)**: Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Views - The report highlights a weakening in industrial metal commodities due to reduced interest rate expectations and the U.S. imposing a 50% tax on copper, which raises concerns about demand in non-U.S. regions [2] - The strategic value of rare earths is emphasized, with the government reinforcing control over resources and smelting, while overseas efforts to build rare earth supply chains are accelerating [2][8] - Precious metals are expected to perform well, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high driven by increased risk aversion and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices stabilized while silver prices hit a new high, driven by heightened risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [6] - The report suggests focusing on silver stocks due to their potential for significant price increases, given the current low silver-to-gold ratio [6] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals experienced volatility, with LME copper down 1.9% and SHFE copper down 1.6%, primarily due to weakened interest rate expectations and the U.S. tax on copper [7] - Copper and aluminum inventories increased, with copper up 8.65% week-on-week and down 21.7% year-on-year, while aluminum increased by 3.06% week-on-week and decreased by 51.8% year-on-year [7] Strategic and Energy Metals - The report indicates a revaluation of strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten, with the government focusing on enhancing control over these resources [8] - The price of rare earths is expected to rise, with significant improvements in the performance of companies in this sector [8] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to an extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while nickel prices are expected to stabilize [8]

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific Haikou expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [1] - The main reason for the profit increase is the merger with Haitong Securities, which has led to significant growth in wealth management and trading revenues [1] - Shenyuan Hongyuan anticipates a net profit increase of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [6][7] Group 2 - Southern Airlines expects a net loss of 1.338 billion to 1.756 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in passenger structure and international uncertainties [2] - China Eastern Airlines projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by intense domestic market competition [3] - Air China anticipates a net loss of 1.7 billion to 2.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, affected by market supply imbalances and international uncertainties [4] Group 3 - HNA Group expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 45 million to 65 million yuan, attributed to improved market conditions and operational adjustments [5] - CICC forecasts a net profit increase of 55%-78% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 55%-60% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.43 billion to 4.573 billion yuan [9] Group 4 - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 84.3%-120.5% [10] - Poly Developments anticipates a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.735 billion yuan [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit increase of 51%-68% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan [13] Group 5 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, but with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [14] - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by ongoing industry challenges [15] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from the previous year's loss [16] Group 6 - Jianghuai Automobile expects a net loss of approximately 680 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased competition in the international market [21] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, attributed to ongoing transformation challenges [22] - ST Huatuo expects a net profit increase of 107.2%-159% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan [23] Group 7 - New Hope anticipates a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [25] - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit increase of 32%-67% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan [27] - Pengding Holdings expects a net profit increase of 52.79%-60.62% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.198 billion to 1.26 billion yuan [29] Group 8 - Hengtong Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of approximately 251 million yuan [30] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 50%-56% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.4 billion to 1.45 billion yuan [31] - Founder Securities expects a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.299 billion to 2.43 billion yuan [33]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's significant profit growth in the first half of 2025 is attributed to rising prices of key products such as copper and cobalt, alongside increased production and sales volumes [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [2] - The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 8.3 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 47.55% to 63.55% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Production and Sales - The production of cobalt metal reached 61,100 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 13.05% [2] - Copper metal production was 353,600 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of about 12.68% [2] - The completion rate for the 2025 production guidance is 56% [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - The company has successfully acquired 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold [5] - The project is expected to commence production in 2028, with an anticipated annual output of 11.5 tons of gold [5] - The company aims to enhance its organizational structure and management to achieve its annual operational goals and foster significant growth [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The Congolese government has extended a ban on cobalt raw material exports, but the company believes this will not have a significant impact on its operations [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (603993) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices, alongside increased production and sales of copper products [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders between 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.83 billion to 36.83 billion yuan, or a growth of 51.37% to 67.98% [2]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 8.3 billion to 9.2 billion yuan, an increase of 26.75 billion to 35.75 billion yuan, translating to a growth of 47.55% to 63.55% year-on-year [2]. Production and Sales - For the first half of 2025, copper production is expected to reach 353,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 12.68%, while cobalt production is projected at 61,100 tons, up about 13.05% [2][3]. - The completion rate for copper production based on the mid-point of the 2025 production guidance is 56% [3]. Market Trends - Copper prices have shown an upward trend in the first half of the year, with global exchanges reporting price increases between 5% to 20% [2]. - Cobalt prices have also surged, with a reported increase of approximately 50% from January 2 to June 30 [2]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold for 581 million Canadian dollars, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, which adds significant gold resources to its portfolio [4]. - The Cangrejos Project has an estimated resource of 1.376 billion tons with an average gold grade of 0.46 g/t, containing 638 tons of gold, and is expected to have a service life of 26 years [4]. Future Outlook - The Cangrejos Project is planned to commence production in 2028, with an expected annual gold output of 11.5 tons [4]. - The company aims to leverage its experience in South America to enhance operational synergies and utilize advanced mining technologies for the new gold project [4].

2025 年半年度业绩预增公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何 虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、 准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 重要内容提示： 1、预计 2025 年上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 82 亿元到 91 亿元,与上年同期（法定披露数据，下同）相比增加 27.83 亿元到 36.83 亿元，同比增加 51.37%到 67.98%。 股票代码：603993 股票简称：洛阳钼业 编号：2025—040 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 2、预计 2025 年上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性 损益的净利润 83 亿元到 92 亿元，与上年同期相比增加 26.75 亿元到 35.75 亿元，同比增加 47.55%到 63.55%。 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年6月30日。 （二）业绩预告情况 1 1、预计 2025 年上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 82 亿元到 9 ...

智通财经7月14日电，洛阳钼业(603993.SH)发布2025年半年度业绩预告，预计归属于上市公司股东的净 利润为82亿元到91亿元，同比增加51.37%到67.98%。主要原因是主要产品铜钴价格同比上升，叠加铜 产品产销量增长，带动业绩提升。公司主要产品产量实现增长，其中铜金属产量同比增长约12.68%， 钴金属产量同比增长约13.05%。 洛阳钼业：上半年净利同比预增51.37%-67.98% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that the gold market will continue to rise due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to tighten [15]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate due to a tight supply situation, while antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 3.75%, outperforming other sectors [23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+18.65%), magnetic materials (+11.28%), and silver (+8.35%) [23]. 2. Precious Metals - London gold price was $3352.10 per ounce, up $20.20 from July 4, with a 0.61% increase [34]. - London silver price reached $37.5 per ounce, increasing by 0.62% from July 4 [34]. - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's differing views on inflation may impact precious metals, but a bullish trend is anticipated [6][34]. 3. Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9640 per ton, down $240 from July 4, a decrease of 2.43% [41]. - Domestic aluminum price was 20760 RMB per ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% [42]. - The report highlights that short-term copper and aluminum prices may face downward pressure due to weak demand [15][41]. 4. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 266820 RMB per ton, down 0.37% from July 4 [43]. - Antimony price was 185500 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.80% [15][43]. - The report suggests that while demand is weak, supply constraints may support tin prices in the future [15]. 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, and in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [15][17].

China Copper Equities Turning point China The long expected US import tax on copper is finally here: On Tuesday 8 July, US President Trump announced plans to implement a 50% tariff on imported copper and the tariff may be implemented as soon as this month (see Copper: Trump announces 50% import tariff, 9 July). The US imports around 50% of its refined copper demand per year, predominantly from Chile (65%), Canada (17%), and Mexico (9%). Given the impending tariffs, Comex copper prices have spiked over 10% s ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the unexpected increase in US copper tariffs, which may impact supply and demand dynamics in the market [3] - The overall performance of the metals sector has been strong, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [4][7] - The report suggests that the long-term trend for gold prices is upward due to central bank purchases and a shift in monetary credit dynamics [3][21] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.78% [4] - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.20 percentage points [4][6] - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 20.42%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 [7] Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw varied price movements, with copper prices down by 2.07% and aluminum prices up by 0.50% [13] - Lithium prices have shown an upward trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.01% [17] - Gold prices increased by 1.03%, while silver prices rose by 5.49% [14] Precious Metals - The report notes an increase in gold ETF holdings, indicating a positive sentiment towards gold [21] - The Chinese central bank has resumed gold purchases, which may bolster market confidence [21] Industrial Metals - Copper supply is tightening due to unexpected production cuts, while demand remains stable [3][33] - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to trend upward due to supply constraints and policy support [3][49] Steel Industry - The report observes a decrease in steel production and a stable demand environment, with slight price increases for rebar and hot-rolled coils [71] - The overall steel inventory remains stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [71] Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [3]