Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several companies as key investment opportunities [5][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of the U.S. increasing copper import tariffs, which is expected to create a divergence in copper prices between COMEX and LME, while domestic policies are expected to support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of lithium prices due to improved demand expectations and the ongoing shortage of cobalt, which is anticipated to drive cobalt prices higher [3]. - The report notes the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs but remains bullish on gold prices in the long term, driven by central bank purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The U.S. plans to raise copper import tariffs to 50%, leading to a significant increase in COMEX copper prices while negatively impacting LME and domestic copper prices [2]. - Domestic copper smelting enterprises have seen an increase in operating rates, driven by the tariff announcement, which has stimulated downstream purchasing [2]. - Aluminum production capacity has slightly decreased, and domestic aluminum social inventory has shifted from accumulation to reduction, supporting aluminum prices [2][20]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to recover due to improved production expectations in the new energy sector, despite ongoing supply pressures [3]. - Cobalt prices are projected to rise due to a shortage of raw materials, exacerbated by delays in policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with some nickel salt manufacturers planning to reduce or halt production due to weak demand [3]. Precious Metals - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs continues, but silver prices have reached new highs, and gold prices are expected to trend upward in the long term [4]. - The report highlights several companies in the precious metals sector as key investment opportunities, including Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [4][5]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides detailed earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, all rated as "Recommended" for investment [5]. - Key companies highlighted include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios [5].

Group 1: Liquidity and Scale of Rare Metal ETFs - The rare metal ETF had an intraday turnover of 3.5%, with a transaction volume of 30.73 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the rare metal ETF reached 37.71 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the past year, the rare metal ETF's scale increased by 16.82 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest margin buying amount for the rare metal ETF reached 2.08 million yuan, with a margin balance of 21.28 million yuan [3] Group 2: Performance and Returns - As of July 10, the net value of the rare metal ETF increased by 30.36% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 3 months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06% [3] - The average return during the rising months was 7.76% [3] Group 3: Industry Insights and Recommendations - The lithium sector is currently in a bottom oscillation phase, with solid-state battery industrialization accelerating and energy storage demand expected to surge [3] - The new energy storage installations are projected to grow by 140% year-on-year in 2024, which may serve as a core catalyst [3] - Companies with strong cost control in lithium extraction from salt lakes and those with overseas resource layouts are recommended for attention [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - The implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations is expected to enhance compliance capacity concentration, with a growth rate of 5.9% in 2024 [4] - The supply-demand gap for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is anticipated to widen starting in 2025, with a focus on light rare earth leading enterprises [4] - The strategic position of rare earths is significant due to U.S. tariff policies, which may positively impact company performance [4] Group 5: Key Stocks in Rare Metal Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, accounting for 54.07% of the total weight [4] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth with a 9.85% increase and Salt Lake Co. with a 0.86% increase [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [7]

Summary of Luoyang Molybdenum Co. Conference Call Industry Overview - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on copper, exceeding market expectations, with limited impact on demand and supply but affecting global logistics [2][4] - If Chile receives exemptions or tariffs are implemented in phases, copper prices may rebound, presenting buying opportunities during price dips [2][4] Company Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum has become the largest cobalt producer globally, with a projected 38% of global production in 2024 and 50% from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] - The company’s tungsten inventory was sold out by Q2, potentially impacting Q3 profits, but H1 profits have already matched the previous year's total [2][5] - Copper production growth is leading among global copper mining companies, with an expected annual compound growth rate of approximately 9% over the next five years, primarily driven by TFM mine expansion and KFM project contributions [2][6][11] Project Developments - The KFM project has exceeded expectations, with annual production capacity increased to over 200,000 tons, benefiting from shared infrastructure with TFM [2][9] - The company acquired an Ecuadorian gold mine with reserves of 638 tons, expected to produce 11.6 tons of gold annually starting in 2028, with a design life exceeding 20 years [2][10] Future Projections - Luoyang Molybdenum aims to expand copper production capacity to 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028, with significant contributions from TFM and KFM projects [2][6][11] - The company’s copper production forecast is conservative, with potential for further increases if copper prices rise to favorable levels [2][7] Financial Sensitivity - A rise of 5,000 RMB/ton in copper prices could increase profits by approximately 1.3 billion RMB, while a 30,000 RMB/ton increase in cobalt prices could add 600-700 million RMB to net profits [3][12] - The company's profit center is estimated at around 15.6 billion RMB under baseline assumptions [3][12] Resource Comparison - As of 2023, Luoyang Molybdenum has a resource volume of 27 million tons, significantly lower than leading global companies like Codelco and BHP, but comparable to some large mining firms [2][8]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for the subdivided non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant growth, with a 3.10% increase over the past month and a 13.89% increase year-to-date, indicating a strong performance in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for subdivided non-ferrous metals rose by 1.28% to 6711.19 points, with a trading volume of 39.135 billion yuan [1]. - The index has increased by 13.83% over the past three months [1]. - The index is composed of seven sub-indices, reflecting the overall performance of larger, more liquid listed companies in related industries [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (15.24%), Northern Rare Earth (5.39%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.48%) [1]. - The index's holdings are primarily concentrated in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (64.67%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (35.33%) [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The index's sample holdings are predominantly in the raw materials sector (99.39%), with a small representation in the industrial sector (0.61%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the subdivided non-ferrous metal index include several products from Huaxia and Huitianfu, indicating investor interest in this sector [2].

股票代码：603993 股票简称：洛阳钼业 编号：2025—039 洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司 关于对外担保计划的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导 性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法 律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、担保审批及授权情况 2025年5月30日，公司2024年年度股东大会审议通过《关于本公 被担保方：相关全资子公司 本次担保金额：洛阳栾川钼业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）直接或通过全资子公司（含直接及间接全资子公司，下同） 为其他全资子公司合计提供总额预计不超过19亿元的担保。 本次担保不涉及反担保。 截至本公告披露日公司无逾期担保。 本次担保计划部分被担保方为资产负债率超过70%的全资子公司； 截至本公告披露日，公司对外担保总额占公司最近一期经审计净 资产的21.62%。敬请投资者注意相关风险。 司2025年度对外担保额度预计的议案》，同意授权董事会或董事会授 权人士（及该等授权人士的转授权人士）批准公司直接或通过全资子 公司（含直接及间接全资子公司，下同）或控股子公司（含直接及间 接控股子公司，下同）为其他全资子公司、控股子公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the China Hong Kong 300 Resource Index, which has shown a 2.39% increase over the past month, a 22.23% increase over the past three months, and a 9.29% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of securities from various industry themes such as banking, transportation, resources, infrastructure, logistics, and leisure, reflecting the overall performance of different thematic listed companies in the Hong Kong market [1] - The index's top ten holdings include China National Offshore Oil (29.27%), PetroChina (13.19%), Zijin Mining (10.84%), China Shenhua Energy (9.38%), Sinopec (9.08%), China Hongqiao Group (4.51%), China Coal Energy (3.47%), Zhaojin Mining (3.08%), Luoyang Molybdenum (2.86%), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.39%) [1] Group 2 - The industry composition of the index shows that oil and gas account for 51.92%, precious metals for 15.97%, coal for 15.72%, industrial metals for 14.86%, rare metals for 0.91%, and other non-ferrous metals and alloys for 0.62% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or undergoes mergers, acquisitions, or splits [2]

Group 1 - As of July 9, the total market financing balance reached 1.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.84 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking three consecutive days of growth [1] - The financing balance for the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 932.96 billion yuan, up by 1.88 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's balance was 916.86 billion yuan, increasing by 1.96 billion yuan [1] - A total of 1,875 stocks experienced net financing inflows on July 9, with 434 stocks having net inflows exceeding 10 million yuan, and 11 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top net financing inflow was seen in Zijin Mining, with a net inflow of 310 million yuan, followed by Luoyang Molybdenum and Dongshan Precision, with net inflows of 228 million yuan and 167 million yuan, respectively [2] - In terms of industry distribution, the sectors with significant net inflows included non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, with three, two, and two stocks respectively [1][2] - The average ratio of financing balance to circulating market value for stocks with large net inflows was 3.28%, with Jin Kai New Energy having the highest ratio at 8.52% [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10]. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices have been leading the industrial metals market, with LME copper expected to surpass $11,000 per ton in May 2024, marking a new high since 2006. From 2000 to July 3, 2025, copper prices have increased by 431%, compared to 58% for aluminum, 319% for lead, and 124% for zinc [2][4][16]. Summary by Sections Long-term Perspective: Metal Prices - Supply and Demand Analysis Framework - The ideal scenario for commodity prices is when demand grows while supply is constrained. Demand determines the industry's ceiling, while supply influences profitability. If demand continues to grow, weak supply responses lead to stronger price performance. Copper is characterized by growing demand and constrained supply [5][20][42]. - Demand is assessed through three dimensions: volume, growth rate, and structure. Volume indicates the industry's ceiling, growth rate reflects industry potential, and structure indicates demand stability. A more diversified demand structure leads to greater stability [5][42]. - Supply is evaluated based on reserves, grade, and mine dispersion. Reserves indicate resource scarcity, grade reflects extraction difficulty, and mine dispersion affects the slope of the cost curve. Generally, lower reserves and grades lead to higher price levels due to increased development costs [5][42][43]. Copper: Growing Demand, Constrained Supply - Copper exhibits the most stable upward demand trend among industrial metals. It is primarily used as a conductor, with over 70% of copper products serving this role. The global electrification trend supports copper demand, aligning closely with global electricity consumption and GDP growth rates [6][21][28]. - On the supply side, copper resources are relatively scarce, with reserves only about one-tenth of iron ore and bauxite. The average grade of copper is lower than that of aluminum, and the industry has the highest mine dispersion, leading to a steep cost curve. New copper mines take over five years to develop, making supply responses to demand changes slow [7][29][31]. Investment Strategy: Focus on Quality Copper Companies - Given the long-term upward trend in copper prices, despite short-term uncertainties in the U.S. economy, it is recommended to invest in copper companies with resource advantages and strong growth expectations. Companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Cangge Mining are highlighted as potential investment targets [8][47].

Group 1: Core Insights - A-share companies are experiencing significant overseas expansion, with notable achievements in infrastructure, biomedicine, and equipment manufacturing, leading to large overseas orders [2][3] - The shift in Chinese enterprises' overseas strategy is moving from cost-driven to innovation-driven, leveraging advanced supply chains, international talent, and digital technologies [2] Group 2: Large Orders and Competitive Strength - A-share companies have secured substantial overseas contracts, particularly in the infrastructure sector, with notable projects including a $1.6 billion contract for a gas processing plant in Iraq and contracts totaling approximately 5.34 billion yuan for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway [3][4] - In the biomedicine sector, companies like Rongchang Bio are accelerating internationalization, exemplified by a licensing agreement with Vor Bio worth up to $4.1 billion [4] - Equipment manufacturing firms are also making strides, with agreements such as a $406 million contract for a conveyor system in Guinea, enhancing their international market presence [4] Group 3: Accelerated Overseas Capacity Layout - Several A-share companies are intensifying their overseas production capacity, viewing local production as a key driver for global competitiveness [6] - Companies like Linglong Tire are investing $1.193 billion in a production base in Brazil, aiming for an annual output of 14.7 million high-performance tires [6] - Other firms, such as North Special Technology and Zhongke Electric, are also establishing production bases in Thailand and Oman, respectively, to enhance their global supply chain [7] Group 4: Rising Trend of Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions - The number of disclosed overseas mergers and acquisitions by A-share companies has surpassed 60 in the first half of the year, with a focus on electronics, automotive parts, and machinery [9] - Companies are pursuing overseas acquisitions to enter emerging markets and enhance their technological capabilities, as seen with Dongshan Precision's dual acquisitions in the optical communication sector [9][10] - The strategy of overseas mergers and acquisitions is aimed at resource and market integration, with firms like Luoyang Molybdenum consolidating their overseas mineral resource reserves [10]

汇丰银行将 洛阳钼业A股评级下调至持有，目标价8.60元人民币。 ...