Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance exceeded expectations due to rising prices of key products and increased production and sales of copper products, leading to a significant profit increase [4][6] - The copper production is expected to exceed 700,000 tons annually, with the KFM Phase II project set to enhance production capacity significantly [6][7] - The forecasted net profit for the company is projected to be 18.6 billion, 24.4 billion, and 25.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6% [4] - The third quarter of 2025 alone saw a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.36% year-on-year, but a profit increase of 96.4% year-on-year [4] Production and Pricing - In the first three quarters of 2025, copper production reached 543,400 tons (up 14.14% year-on-year) and sales were 520,300 tons (up 10.56% year-on-year) [6] - The average price of copper on the LME was $9,589 per ton (up 3.66% year-on-year), while the average price on the SHFE was 78,300 yuan per ton (up 4.42% year-on-year) [6] Profitability - The copper segment achieved a gross profit of 20.88 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase from 52.34% to 54.07% [6] - The cobalt segment's gross profit rose to 3.92 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase from 36.49% to 63.46% [6] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve an annual copper production target of 80,000 to 100,000 tons over the next five years, with significant investments planned for the KFM Phase II project [6][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 20, 15, and 15 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation as the company enters a capacity release phase [7]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by favorable factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the Copper ETF (159652) seeing substantial inflows and price increases [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has surged over 2%, attracting over 20 million yuan in capital inflows during the trading session [1]. - Key components of the non-ferrous 50 ETF, including lithium and other industrial metals, have shown strong price increases, with notable gains from Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium [3]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached an all-time high of 11,200 points, indicating strong market demand [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Citic Securities forecasts that copper and cobalt prices will continue to rise due to supply constraints, while lithium prices will benefit from unexpected increases in energy storage demand [5]. - The supply side is facing significant constraints, with global copper mine supply expected to enter negative growth in Q4 2024 due to production disruptions and reduced output guidance from major producers [5]. - Emerging demand from AI data centers is projected to significantly increase copper consumption, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% expected from 2023 to 2027 [6]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The current geopolitical tensions and dollar credit risks are enhancing the financial attributes of copper, positioning it as a key reserve asset for countries [10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut to a target range of 3.75%-4% is expected to support the price of physical assets like copper [10]. - Citic Jin Investment predicts that copper prices may return to a range of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton by Q4 2025, supported by supply-demand fundamentals and liquidity conditions [11]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high copper and gold content, with a leading position in the market [11]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return of 116.5% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, indicating strong growth potential [13]. - The projected compound annual growth rate for net profit over the next two years for the ETF's index is 16.28%, suggesting superior growth compared to peers [13].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock price growth and strong financial performance, indicating potential investment opportunities in the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [2]. Stock Market Activity - On October 30, 2023, Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rose by 2.28% to 17.95 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 2.44 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.79% [1]. - The stock has increased by 180.60% year-to-date, with a 12.89% rise in the last five trading days, 42.23% in the last 20 days, and 92.18% in the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 28.08% to 304,200, with an average of 0 shares per shareholder [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 695 million shares, an increase of 47.47 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The carbon-neutral ETF Southern (159639) increased by 0.77%, with trading volume expanding rapidly. The index it tracks, the China Shanghai Environmental Exchange Carbon Neutral Index, rose by 0.50% [1] - Key constituent stocks such as Arctech (up 10.65%), Hangyang (up 7.12%), Sungrow (up 5.17%), Hunan Yueneng (up 4.20%), and Jiangxi Copper (up 4.17%) showed significant gains [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a press conference on October 29, announcing the implementation of the first central document in China's carbon market, aimed at accelerating the construction of a national carbon market [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted the release of the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0," predicting high growth in domestic new energy vehicle sales by 2025, which will drive demand for batteries and materials [1] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing, with XINWANDA launching a new generation polymer all-solid-state battery with an energy density of 400 Wh/kg [1] - In the photovoltaic sector, the investment theme remains focused on "anti-involution," with expectations that domestic high-power modules will drive an increase in module prices [1] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission's draft implementation plan for renewable energy consumption targets includes non-electric renewable energy, marking a shift towards multi-energy collaborative consumption [2] - This policy creates a regulatory market space for the green hydrogen, ammonia, and alcohol industries, enhancing the certainty and long-term expectations for industry development [2] - The carbon-neutral ETF Southern closely tracks the China Shanghai Environmental Exchange Carbon Neutral Index, which includes 100 listed companies with significant contributions to carbon neutrality [2]

Fixed Income Research - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of government bond trading operations, indicating a shift in monetary policy tools to enhance liquidity management [2][3] - Since August 2024, the PBOC has conducted net purchases of government bonds totaling 1 trillion yuan, with a gradual increase in bond buying until January 2025 when operations were paused due to market imbalances [3][4] - The resumption of bond trading is expected to enrich the monetary policy toolkit, enhance the financial functions of government bonds, and improve the pricing benchmark for the yield curve [5][8] Company Research: Heng Rui Medicine (600276) - Heng Rui Medicine reported a revenue of 23.188 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.85%, with a net profit of 5.751 billion yuan, up 24.50% [14][15] - The company achieved significant overseas expansion, securing three overseas business development agreements and launching three new drugs in Q3 2025 [15][16] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is set at 8.045 billion, 9.866 billion, and 11.702 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [16] Company Research: YTO Group (601038) - YTO Group reported a revenue of 9.703 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 9.63%, with a net profit of 994 million yuan, down 9.69% [20][21] - Despite the decline, Q3 showed improvement with a net profit of 225 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.14% [21] - The company continues to focus on the trend of agricultural machinery intelligence and high-end products, launching a new heavy-duty tractor at an agricultural machinery exhibition [21][22] Company Research: Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) - Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 145.485 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 5.99%, while net profit increased by 72.61% to 14.280 billion yuan [24][25] - The company achieved production completion rates exceeding 75% for major products, with significant cost reductions in cobalt production [25][27] - The company plans to invest 1.084 billion USD in the KFM Phase II project, expected to be completed by 2027, which will enhance copper processing capacity [27][28] Company Research: Aluminum Corporation of China (601600) - Aluminum Corporation of China reported a revenue of 176.516 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.57%, with a net profit of 10.872 billion yuan, up 20.65% [30][31] - The company experienced steady growth in production, with alumina and primary aluminum output increasing by 3.74% and 6.76% respectively [31][32] - The profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 14.553 billion, 16.036 billion, and 17.076 billion yuan, maintaining an "accumulate" rating [32][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) is maintained as "Buy" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 145.5 billion yuan (down 6.0% year-on-year) and a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan (up 72.6% year-on-year) primarily due to rising copper prices and increased copper production and sales [6]. - The company plans to invest in the KFM Phase II project, expected to commence production in 2027, which will add an average of 100,000 tons of copper per year upon completion [6]. - The acquisition of Lumina Gold Company enhances the company's portfolio, adding a gold project with significant resources located in Ecuador [6]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards due to rising copper prices and production exceeding initial plans, with projected net profits of 19.56 billion, 22.80 billion, and 25.90 billion yuan respectively [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 216.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.4% [5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 19.56 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 44.5% year-on-year [5]. - The company's gross margin is expected to be 19.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 22.6% [5].

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant increase in the scale of actively managed equity funds, with a current position of 87% [8][19] - The report highlights a shift in industry allocation, with increased investments in electronics, communication, electric power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and retail, while reducing exposure to banking, food and beverage, home appliances, automotive, and defense industries [21][22] - The report notes a preference for high elasticity, high momentum, and high volatility stocks, with a further increase in growth stocks compared to the previous period [29] Group 2 - The report states that the scale of actively managed bond funds has decreased by 2.3%, while the number of funds continues to grow [9] - The allocation has shifted towards financial bonds, medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and convertible bonds, with a decrease in government bonds and interbank deposits [9] - The average duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds is reported at 3.50, indicating a high overall duration despite a downward trend in government bond yields [9] Group 3 - The report mentions that 19 new FOF products were launched in Q3 2025, with a total scale increase of approximately 20.5% compared to Q2 2025 [11] - The allocation continues to favor passive bond funds, while the proportion of actively managed equity and QDII funds has decreased [12] - FOF equity funds are focusing on strong industry allocation and dynamic trading capabilities, particularly favoring technology growth funds [12][13] Group 4 - The report indicates that the top sectors for growth-oriented funds include electronics, biomedicine, electric power equipment, communication, and food and beverage [51] - Growth-oriented funds have increased their positions in electronics, communication, electric power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and retail [52] - The report emphasizes that AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are current market hotspots, with a focus on the domestic policy support and global market positioning of leading companies [51][52]

Core Insights - The metal cobalt sector experienced a rise of 3.31%, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with 30 stocks increasing in value, including notable gains from Zhongtung High-tech, Guocheng Mining, Hainan Mining, and Xiamen Tungsten [1][2] Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included Hainan Free Trade Zone (+4.35%), BC Battery (+3.89%), and Metal Zinc (+3.60%), while the worst performers were DRG/DIP (-1.31%) and Military Equipment Restructuring Concept (-1.14%) [2] - The metal cobalt sector saw a net inflow of 3.74 billion yuan, with 25 stocks receiving net inflows, and 10 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflows [2] Key Stocks - Zijin Mining led the net inflow with 878.94 million yuan, followed by Ganfeng Lithium, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt with net inflows of 542.84 million yuan, 444.77 million yuan, and 355.20 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflow ratios included China Metallurgical Group (15.78%), Zijin Mining (13.58%), and China Railway Group (13.38%) [3][4] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Zhongtung High-tech (+10.00%), Ganfeng Lithium (+6.22%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (+4.78%), while stocks like Huaxin Environmental Protection and China Ruilin saw declines of -2.48% and -2.15% respectively [1][5]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993) experienced a stock price increase of 4.78%, closing at 17.55 yuan on October 29, 2025, with a trading volume of 2.8384 million hands and a total transaction value of 4.911 billion yuan [1] - The stock opened at 16.98 yuan, reached a high of 17.56 yuan, and a low of 16.93 yuan during the trading session [1] - The net inflow of main funds was 466 million yuan, accounting for 9.49% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 305 million yuan, representing 6.22% of the total transaction value [1] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that Luoyang Molybdenum's stock is in a narrow consolidation pattern, with a clear resistance level at 16.92 yuan and a key support level at 16.53 yuan [3] - The stock price has tested the resistance level multiple times without success, while buying support remains near the support level [3] - Technical indicators are neutral to weak, with short-term moving averages intertwined, not providing a clear trend signal [3]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading volume, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in its operations in the metals sector [1] Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum is the second-largest cobalt producer globally, with a comprehensive integrated supply chain in non-ferrous metal mining, including copper, molybdenum, tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and phosphorus [2][7] - The company has been expanding its precious metals business, with increasing revenue and profit contributions from gold and silver products [2] Recent Developments - The company signed a share transfer agreement to acquire 100% of Woyuan Holdings, indirectly increasing its stake in Huayue Nickel Cobalt to 30% [2] - In 2023, the company expects a 56% to 69% year-on-year increase in gold production from its NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with a production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 ounces [3] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 14.28 billion yuan [8] - The company has distributed a total of 21.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 10.58 billion yuan in the last three years [9] Market Position - The company ranks 47th in market popularity within the A-share market, with a total market capitalization of 375.47 billion yuan [1] - The stock has a current average trading cost of 11.82 yuan, with a recent price approaching a resistance level of 18.00 yuan, indicating potential for upward movement if this level is surpassed [6]