Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales momentum in the first half of 2024, with revenue expected to reach between 78.6 billion to 80.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95% to 47.98% [3] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 16.0 billion to 17.3 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 44.39% to 56.12% [3] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance due to national expansion, increased terminal coverage, and product pricing strategies that align with current consumer trends [4] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company is projected to achieve Q2 revenue of 43.78 billion to 45.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.4% to 54.8% [4] - Key growth drivers include ongoing national expansion, strong performance in northern and southwestern regions, and effective channel expansion [4] Profitability - The expected net profit for Q2 is between 9.36 billion to 10.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.2% to 74.5% [4] - The net profit margin is anticipated to improve to 22.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved operational efficiencies [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 149.73 billion, 186.83 billion, and 226.63 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.95%, 24.77%, and 21.30% [6] - The projected net profit for the same period is 28.33 billion, 36.88 billion, and 44.11 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 38.90%, 30.17%, and 19.61% [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 7.08, 9.22, and 11.03 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30, 23, and 19 times [6]

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company expects to achieve operating revenue of 7.86-8.08 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95%-47.98% [3] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.60-1.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.39%-56.12% [3] - For Q2 2024, the expected operating revenue is 4.38-4.60 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 47.44%-54.84% [3] - The expected net profit for Q2 2024 is 936-1,066 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 53.24%-74.53% [3] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The main business continues to exceed expectations, attributed to the investment in freezers and national expansion [3] - The number of retail outlets has increased to nearly 4 million, contributing to sales growth [3] - The introduction of new products, such as "Bup Shui La," has positively impacted sales performance [3] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The company has expanded its market reach, enhancing its channel capabilities and increasing product repurchase rates [3] - The performance of "Bup Shui La" is expected to meet annual targets ahead of schedule, indicating strong market demand [3] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its production capacity and enhancing its national distribution network [3] - The strategy includes improving product offerings and maintaining cost control to enhance profitability [3] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's growth trajectory, citing strong consumer demand and effective cost management [3] - The company anticipates continued revenue and profit growth in the coming years, supported by strategic investments and market expansion [3] Other Important Information - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, reflecting its strong performance and growth potential [1] - Risks include food safety concerns, raw material price fluctuations, and seasonal demand variations [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for revenue growth in the coming years? - The company projects revenue growth of 37.60% in 2024, followed by 29.43% in 2025 and 26.22% in 2026 [4] Question: How is the company managing costs amid rising raw material prices? - Management indicated that cost control measures and improved operational efficiency are key to maintaining profitability despite cost pressures [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - B" [1]. Core Views - The company reported Q2 performance exceeding expectations, with a revenue forecast for H1 2024 between 7.86 billion to 8.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95% to 47.98% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.6 billion to 1.73 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 44.39% to 56.12% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its national distribution channels, with significant growth expected in its new product line, "Water La" [1]. Revenue Analysis - Q2 revenue growth is anticipated to be robust, driven by strong performance in functional drinks and water products [1]. - The company is expanding its distribution network and increasing the number of sales points, which is expected to contribute to steady revenue growth [1]. - The new product "Water La" has shown rapid sales growth, with daily sales surpassing 120,000 boxes in the first half of the year [1]. Profit Analysis - The estimated net profit margin for Q2 is projected to increase by 1.7 percentage points to 22.3% [1]. - The decline in raw material costs, particularly sugar and PET bottle prices, is expected to positively impact profit margins [1]. - Effective cost control measures are anticipated to further enhance profitability [1]. Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned to transition from a single-category to a multi-category beverage enterprise, leveraging its brand strength, distribution channels, and scale advantages [1]. - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 15.255 billion, 18.767 billion, and 22.632 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.4%, 23.0%, and 20.6% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised, with expected figures of 2.806 billion, 3.530 billion, and 4.301 billion yuan, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 37.6%, 25.8%, and 21.8% respectively [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 210.48 CNY and a target value of 253 CNY, reflecting a potential upside of over 20% [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 78.6-80.8 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.0%-48.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 16.0-17.3 billion CNY, also showing a year-on-year increase of 44.4%-56.1% [1][4]. - The second quarter of 2024 is anticipated to see accelerated growth, with revenue expected to reach 43.8-46.0 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 47.4%-54.8%. This growth is attributed to the strong performance of the core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, and the expansion of its national distribution [1][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high net profit margin, with the net profit margin projected to increase by 2.0-6.0 percentage points to 20.1%-24.1% in Q2 2024, driven by significant scale effects and a recovery in gross margins [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 153.8 billion CNY, 193.3 billion CNY, and 235.5 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 36.5%, 25.7%, and 21.9% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 28.9 billion CNY, 37.0 billion CNY, and 47.3 billion CNY during the same period, with growth rates of 41.8%, 27.9%, and 27.9% respectively [1][4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 29, 23, and 18 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [1][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in Q2 2024, with revenue projected between 4.38 billion to 4.60 billion yuan (up 47%-55%) and net profit between 940 million to 1.07 billion yuan (up 53%-75%) [1] - The strong performance is attributed to both the main business and new product launches, with a notable increase in the contribution from new products [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue growth exceeding 30% for five consecutive quarters [1] Revenue Analysis - In Q2, the main business is expected to grow by 35%-40% despite weak consumer demand and increased rainfall in southern regions, with inventory levels significantly reduced [1] - The special beverage segment is projected to account for approximately 80% of revenue in Q2, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 30% [1] - New products are anticipated to contribute nearly 20% to revenue in Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 130% [1] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q2 is estimated at 22.3%, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, indicating effective cost control [1] - For the first half of the year, the net profit margin is expected to be 20.9%, reflecting stability despite increased investments [1] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 15.23 billion yuan in 2024, 19.15 billion yuan in 2025, and 23.72 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.2%, 25.7%, and 23.9% respectively [2] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.85 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 4.63 billion yuan, with growth rates of 39.8%, 29.0%, and 25.7% respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 30, 23, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]

2024 年 7 月 11 日 公司研究 24H1 业绩表现优秀,新品"补水啦"持续放量增长 ——东鹏饮料(605499.SH)2024 年中报业绩预告点评 要点 买入(上调) 事件:24H1 公司预计实现营业收入 78.6~80.8 亿元,同比+43.95%~47.98%; 预计归母净利润为 16~17.3 亿元,同比+44.39%~56.12%;预计扣非归母净利润 15.5~16.8 亿元,同比+56.49%~69.62%。24Q2,公司预计实现营收 43.78~45.98 亿元,同比+47.5%~54.9%;预计归母净利润为 9.36~10.66 亿元,同比 +53.2%~74.5%;预计扣非归母净利润为 9.26~10.56 亿元,同比+72.4%~96.6%。 东鹏特饮销量预计持续增长,新品"补水啦"快速放量。受益于公司日渐夯实的 基本盘——东鹏特饮销量持续增长以及其他饮料的快速放量,24H1 公司业绩增 速较高。2024 年是公司全面实施"1+6 战略"的首年,战略落地效果较好,我 们预计 24H1 东鹏"补水啦"销量实现较高增速,已经具备大单品的雏形。 2024H1,东鹏"补水啦"取得亮眼成绩: ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Dongpeng Beverage [2][3] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage's performance exceeded expectations with strong growth in sales, particularly in the hydration segment [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 7.86-8.08 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.95%-47.98% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.6-1.73 billion yuan, an increase of 44.39%-56.12% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to push its national strategy, enhancing channel management and product exposure to drive sales [2] - New product launches are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with a target of reaching 2 million distribution points [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 4.378-4.598 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.44%-54.84% [2] - The net profit for Q2 is expected to be 936-1.066 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 53.24%-74.53% [2] - The net profit margin is projected to be 21.41%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its production bases, with significant investments planned for new facilities [2] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 to 6.99, 9.02, and 11.49 yuan respectively [3] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its core energy drink segment while also seeing rapid growth in new electrolyte water products [2][3]

业绩简评 7 月 10 日公司发布半年度业绩预告,24H1 预计实现营收 78.6- 80.8 亿元,同比+43.95-47.98%;实现归母净利润 16.0-17.3 亿 元,同比+44.39-56.12%;实现扣非归母净利润 15.5-16.8 亿元, 同比+56.49-69.62%。 其中单 Q2 预计实现营收 43.8-46.0 亿元,同比+47.4-54.9%;实 现归母净利润 9.4-10.7 亿元,同比+53.2-74.5%;实现扣非归母 净利润 9.3-10.6 亿元,同比+72.4-96.6%,业绩超预期。 经营分析 消费大环境疲软背景下,公司收入大超预期的原因:1)能量饮料 具备性价比+拓渠道α,Q2 预计维持高增长,主要来自全国终端网 点数量加速扩张。2)"补水啦"动销加速,新品类势能充沛。公司 于 Q1 加大冰柜投入,搭配成体系的产品矩阵,单点产出显著提升。 其中补水啦补齐新口味,学校等特通场景实现与特饮互补。无糖 茶,椰汁,鸡尾酒等品类逐步实现全国化推广。 单 Q2 归母净利率为 22.3%,同比+1.7pct,环比+3.2pct,均实现 大幅改善,主要系 1)补水啦借势迅速起量,规 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 7.86-8.08 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95%-47.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.55-1.68 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 47.5%-54.9% [2]. - The report highlights strong sales momentum, with channel inventory at a historical low, and anticipates continued high growth in revenue driven by national expansion and increased product exposure [2][4]. - Gross margin is expected to improve due to cost optimization and increased scale effects, with a notable decrease in sugar prices contributing to cost benefits [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in the second half of the year, supported by low channel inventory and ongoing market expansion efforts [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at 15.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40.0%. Net profit is forecasted at 2.88 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 41.0% [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 7.19 yuan in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29 [5]. - Key financial ratios indicate a gross margin of 43.5% and a net margin of 18.2% for 2024E, showcasing strong profitability [5].

[Table_Header] 公司点评●饮料乳品 2024 年 07 月 10 日 Q2 增速创历史峰值,特饮与第二曲线共振 [Table_StockCode] 东鹏饮料(605499) [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 (维持) --2024 年半年度业绩预告点评 核心观点: [Table_Summary] ⚫ 事件:7 月 10 日,公司披露业绩预告,预计 24H1 收入 78.6~80.8 亿元,同 比+44%~48%;归母净利润 16.0~17.3 亿元,同比+44%~56%;扣非归母净利 润 15.5~16.8 亿元,同比+56%~70%。24Q2 收入 43.8~46.0 亿元,同比+47~55%; 归母净利润 9.4~10.7 亿元,同比+53~75%;扣非归母净利润 9.3~10.6 亿元,同 比+72~97%。 ⚫ 收入增速创 Q2 历史峰值,特饮高景气+补水啦放量。24Q2 收入预计同比 +47~55%,增速为上市至今单二季度最高值,主要得益于:1)宏观复苏节奏 偏慢背景下产品高性价比优势进一步彰显;2)网点开发节奏明显偏快叠加单 店动销旺盛,下游渠道库存下降,订单需求超出产能供 ...