摩根大通发表研究报告指，正在调整对中芯国际的预测，以考虑到公司因去库存而导致的第四财季增长 放缓，以及由于折旧成本上升和缺乏均价上升的压力，虽然高端晶圆比例上升，但产量降低令毛利持续 受压。 摩通续予中芯国际"减持"评级，目标价为36港元。该行相信，由于公司将继续扩大28纳米及以下晶圆产 能，其未来2至3年的资本开支或仍保持高位，估计达70亿至75亿美元。该行预计，公司于第四季去库存 和CIS领域的竞争加剧，短期内可能抑制毛利和均价。 ...

（原标题：财报超预期市值却跳水，中芯国际怎么了？） 作者 | 丁卯 编辑 | 黄绎达 2025年8月7日，国产晶圆代工龙头中芯国际发布了一份略超预期的二季度财务报告。 根据港股财报披露，尽管受到生产波动性和产品结构变化的影响，使得公司的收入和毛利维持下滑趋势，但幅度相对上个季度明显放缓，且远好 于公司的业绩指引和市场预期。 但市场似乎对这份略超预期的财报表现并不买账。周五当天（8月8日），中芯国际港股严重下挫，最终阴跌8.2%，同日，A股也下跌了4.3%。 那么，中芯国际此次财报的质量究竟如何？市场的担忧在哪里？目前公司是否存在高估风险？ 2025年第二季度，中芯国际实现营业收入22.1亿美元，较去年同期增长16.2%，比一季度环比下滑1.7%，环比增速高于上季度的业绩指引和市场预 期。 分产品看，二季度12英寸晶圆产品仍然是中芯国际主要的收入来源，但8英寸的贡献度在回暖。根据港股财报披露，本季度8英寸晶圆产品的收入 为4.99亿美元，环比增长6.6%，收入占比23.9%；12英寸晶圆产品收入15.9亿美元，环比下滑4.8%，收入占比76.1%，较上个季度下降2个pct。 分地区看，二季度中国区贡献了超八成的 ...

交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团或持续受益于关键 半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026年2.1倍的市净率， 维持"中性"评级。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，看好中芯国际(00981)国产晶圆代工产的龙头地位，认为集团 或持续受益于关键半导体产品的国产代替趋势。上调H股目标价4%，由45港元升至47港元，对应2026 年2.1倍的市净率，维持"中性"评级。 该行认为集团次季业绩优于指引，且总体需求因关税影响提前拉货的情况对集团影响不大，预计需求将 平稳过渡到下半年，预测集团第三季收入环比增6.3%至23.5亿美元，毛利率19.3%。同时 预测2025-2026 年收入92.9/110亿美元，毛利率20.5%/21%。 该行测算出集团今年上半年新增12英寸月产能1.9万片，并于第三季继续新增1.1万片月产能。据该行推 测，第三季平均售价(ASP)虽高于第二季，但仍略低于首季，符合该行预期。 ...

Core Insights - The total margin financing balance on the STAR Market increased by 826 million yuan, while the margin short selling balance rose by 23.92 million yuan, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment [1][2] Financing Balance Summary - As of August 11, the total margin financing balance reached 181.72 billion yuan, marking a continuous increase for 21 trading days [1] - The highest margin financing balance was held by SMIC at 7.57 billion yuan, followed by Cambrian and Haiguang Information with 4.91 billion yuan and 4.50 billion yuan respectively [1] - A total of 301 stocks saw an increase in margin financing balance, while 283 stocks experienced a decrease [1] - Notable increases in margin financing balance were observed in Kewell, Jinghua Micro, and Songji shares, with increases of 43.46%, 26.35%, and 26.04% respectively [1] Short Selling Balance Summary - The highest margin short selling balance was also held by SMIC at 24 million yuan, followed by Cambrian and Haiguang Information with 21 million yuan and 17 million yuan respectively [2] - A total of 193 stocks experienced an increase in margin short selling balance, while 84 stocks saw a decrease [2] - Significant increases in margin short selling balance were noted for Diao Weiwei, Shengmei Shanghai, and Maixin Lin, with increases of 195.24%, 162.26%, and 152.43% respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the financial performance and trading activities of SMIC, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market with significant trading volumes and fluctuations in financing and margin trading [1][2] Group 2 - As of August 11, SMIC's stock price increased by 0.35% with a trading volume of 2.424 billion yuan, while the net financing buy was negative at 661.94 thousand yuan [1] - The total financing and margin trading balance for SMIC reached 7.594 billion yuan, with financing balance accounting for 4.38% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] - On the same day, SMIC's margin trading saw a repayment of 3,188 shares and a sell-off of 96,200 shares, with a total sell amount of 8.3686 million yuan, reflecting a high margin balance [1] Group 3 - For the first quarter of 2025, SMIC reported a revenue of 16.301 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.44%, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 166.50% year-on-year [2] - The number of shareholders for SMIC increased to 258,000, with an average of 8,042 circulating shares per person, indicating a slight decrease in individual holdings [2] - Major institutional shareholders have reduced their holdings, with notable decreases in shares held by various ETFs, reflecting a shift in institutional investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of $2.209 billion for Q2 2025, showing a year-over-year increase of 16.2%, which exceeded both the company's previous guidance and market expectations [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 gross margin was 20.4%, up 6.5 percentage points year-over-year, and above the company's guidance range of 18%-20% [3] - Net profit for Q2 2025 was $147 million, with a year-over-year decrease of 19.5% [3] - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to grow by 5%-7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased wafer shipments and product structure adjustments [3] Group 2: Orders and Market Demand - The company has a robust order backlog extending to October 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [4] - The impact of tariffs on revenue is estimated to be within 1.3%, as customers have made advance arrangements [4] - The automotive and industrial sectors contributed 10.6% to Q2 2025 revenue, with a significant increase in automotive electronics shipments [4] Group 3: Capacity and Production - The overall utilization rate for Q2 2025 was 92.5%, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.9 percentage points [5] - The company is expanding and relocating production lines to meet strong demand for 8-inch wafers, driven by both domestic and overseas customers [5] - The company is implementing new technologies and processes, such as GaN and SiC, to enhance production capabilities [5] Group 4: Future Guidance - The company anticipates improved product structure and ASP in Q3 2025, following a resolution of previous production fluctuations [6] - The guidance for Q3 2025 gross margin is set at 18%-20%, influenced by increased depreciation costs due to rapid capacity expansion [6] - The company remains optimistic about its long-term growth trajectory, supported by ongoing capacity expansion and technological advancements [6]

Group 1: A-Share Market Activity - The A-share market has seen increased trading activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, indicating a positive market cycle driven by profit effects [3][4] - Since July, there has been a significant inflow of funds into industry-themed ETFs, with active equity fund issuance showing a notable recovery [3][4] - Institutional positions have been continuously increasing, becoming a crucial support for the market rally [3][7] Group 2: ETF Inflows - Industry-themed ETFs have attracted substantial capital, particularly in three main areas: dividend-themed ETFs, AI sector ETFs, and ETFs related to policies aimed at reducing competition [4][5][6] - Notable inflows include 39.45 billion RMB into the Southern S&P China A-Share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility ETF and 30.54 billion RMB into the Huatai-PB CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF since July [4] - The surge in industry-themed ETF sizes often correlates with improved market activity and the formation of consensus on market themes [4][5] Group 3: Active Equity Funds - Active equity funds have experienced a resurgence, with an average annual return exceeding 14% and several products doubling in net value [6][7] - Seven active equity funds launched since July have raised over 1 billion RMB each, with the largest being the Dacheng Insight Advantage Mixed Fund at 2.461 billion RMB [6] - The second batch of floating management fee funds is also being launched, potentially driving further growth in the active equity fund market [6] Group 4: Institutional Investment Sentiment - Institutions have been increasing their positions, with average stock fund positions reaching approximately 90.55% as of August 8, reflecting a bullish outlook [7][8] - Major public funds, such as Southern Fund, have committed over 230 million RMB to their own equity funds, indicating confidence in the long-term stability of the capital market [8] - Analysts believe that the A-share market is currently in a favorable position for long-term investment, with expectations of continued inflows of capital [8][9] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - There is a significant shift in global asset allocation, with a notable influx of capital into the Hong Kong market, which has become a favored destination for global investors [10][11] - As of August 11, net inflows from southbound funds into Hong Kong exceeded 800 billion RMB, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [11] - The Hong Kong market is seen as a bridge for investing in China, with many private equity firms increasing their allocations to Hong Kong stocks while reducing exposure to U.S. equities [10][13] Group 6: Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong - The technology sector remains a key focus for institutional investors, with major stocks like Tencent and Alibaba seeing high trading volumes [17][18] - High-dividend stocks and new consumption sectors are also attracting attention, with significant net purchases in financials and consumer discretionary sectors [18] - The emergence of new core assets in China, driven by economic transformation, is expected to attract more global capital into the Hong Kong market [18]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月11日 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.博通2025Q2 AI营收大幅增 长，存储市场持续回暖——电 1. 北美云厂商资本开支持续扩张， AI算力需求强劲——电子行业周报 （2025/7/28-2025/8/3） 子行业周报2025/6/2-2025/6/8 2. 谷歌2025Q2云收入高增，WAIC 2025推动AI规范治理与产业加速— —电子行业周报（2025/7/21- 2025/7/27） ——电子行业周报2025/8/4-2025/8/10 [table_main] 投资要点： 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 电 子 1 ➢ 电子板块观点：中芯国际、华虹发布二季度财报，整体业绩表现优于指引，产能利用率 高企， ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月11日 电子行业周报 优于大市 GB 系列机柜出货预期有所上修，晶圆代工订单展望乐观 半导体维持高景气，看好模拟及存储左侧布局良机。过去一周上证上涨 2.11%，电子上涨 1.65%，子行业中消费电子上涨 4.27%，元件下跌 1.59%。 同期恒生科技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技上涨 1.17%、2.72%、2.90%。近 期在北美算力强势上涨的带动下，相关映射链条成为主要情绪拉动点，尤其 是受益于 ASIC 趋势下网络架构的变化而带来显著增量的交换机及服务器产 业链。一方面，供应链近期陆续上修 2026 年英伟达 GB 系列产品出货预 期，算力链业绩高增长趋势再强化；另一方面，台积电预计 AI 需求持 续强劲，非 AI 需求温和复苏，将年收入增速预期由 25%左右上调到 30% 左右；与此同时，中芯、华虹 2Q25 稼动率趋近饱和，订单需求展望乐 观，佐证半导体高景气延续。建议关注基本面趋势逐季强化、有较强品类 扩张及国产替代预期的模拟 IC 及存储模组。当下时点仍坚定看好 25 年电子 板块在"宏观政策周期、产业库存周期、AI 创新周期"共振下的"估值扩张" 行情，坚定推 ...