中信证券 工程机械版块近况跟踪&重点公司推荐（机械） 20250305 摘要 Q&A 2025 年国内工程机械行业的市场表现如何？ 2025 年国内工程机械行业的开局表现超出预期。2 月挖掘机内销预计达到 1 万 台以上，相比 2024 年 2 月的 5,837 台，同比增速约为 70%。1-2 月合并来看， 内销同比增速预期在 30%-40%之间。3 月内销情况依旧乐观，预计销量将冲刺至 2 万台，而 2024 年 3 月为 15,000 多台，占全年内销排量的 16%-17%。全年挖掘 • 柳工预计 2025 年 3 月国内挖掘机销量将达 2 万台，同比增长约 30%，受益 于新农村建设、高标准农田建设和水利工程等需求驱动，全年销量目标为 12 万-13 万台，同比增长 20%-30%。 • 柳工设定了清晰的盈利目标，计划到 2027 年实现 500 亿人民币收入，净利 率达到 8%，对应净利润约 40 亿人民币，若按 15 倍 PE 估值，远期市值可 达 600 亿人民币，较目前 260 亿人民币市值有显著增长空间。 • 柳工在电动产品领域取得进展，电装产品在欧洲市场反馈良好，受益于欧 美市场电装产品高 ...

中国资产午后走强。 5日，A股午后在金融板块的带动下发力拉升，上证50指数涨0.77%，北证50指数大涨近3%；港股走势强劲，恒生指数涨近3%，恒生科技指数大涨超4%。个 股方面，同程旅行涨超10%，小米集团、华虹半导体、京东健康涨超7%，京东集团、腾讯控股涨约3%。 具体来看，沪指午后在金融板块的带动下发力上攻，深证成指、创业板指翻红，北证50指数表现强势。截至收盘，沪指涨0.53%报3341.96点，深证成指涨 0.28%报10709.46点，创业板指涨0.01%报2190.36点，上证50指数涨0.77%，北证50指数涨2.82%，沪深北三市合计成交15459亿元，较昨日增加659亿元。 银行、保险、券商板块集体上扬，成都银行涨超3%，中信银行、招商银行等涨超2%；工程机械板块大幅拉升，山东矿机、柳工、山推股份等涨停；6G概念 爆发，本川智能、三维通信、兴森科技等涨停；人形机器人概念热度不减，一博科技、隆盛科技续创新高，捷昌驱动、兆威机电、智微智能等斩获两连板； 算力概念走高，元道通信、拓维信息、纵横通信等涨停，并行科技大涨超17%。 金融板块拉升 银行板块盘中发力拉升，截至收盘，成都银行涨超3%，中信 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry experienced significant market changes in 2024, with unexpected positive growth in excavator sales starting in March, leading to improved performance in Q1 reports and a notable stock price increase in May [2][4] - The domestic demand in China is expected to exceed expectations in early 2025, reversing the downward trend in main engine manufacturers' revenues from 2021 to 2024, with scale effects likely to enhance gross and net profit margins [2][4] - Key factors influencing the engineering machinery industry's development include the sustainability of domestic market recovery, the impact of the real estate cycle, and the expansion of Chinese enterprises in Africa and Latin America [2][5] Company-Specific Insights: Liugong - Liugong has achieved significant results through reforms aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a stable management team and strong reform momentum indicating an optimistic future outlook [2][6] - The company has maintained its leading position in the electric charging pile market, with a market share of 25% and a significant year-on-year increase in sales [2][12] - Liugong's revenue and profit are expected to grow in the context of a recovering domestic market, with a focus on continuous reform and improvement in profitability [2][9] Market Trends and Financial Performance - The engineering machinery sector has seen a loosening of capital flow recently, but upcoming events such as the Two Sessions and sales data releases may lead to a rebound in stock performance [2][7] - The company has shown improved profitability, but the sustainability of this improvement remains to be observed [2][7] - Liugong's revenue and profitability have been positively impacted by the ongoing national enterprise reform, which has injected operational vitality and improved efficiency [2][18] Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The engineering machinery industry is projected to achieve positive growth in 2025, with small-tonnage equipment remaining resilient and significant growth in water conservancy infrastructure investment [2][19] - Key investment opportunities include companies like Liugong, XCMG, SANY, and Zoomlion, each with unique investment value and strategic focuses [2][15] - The overseas market demand is expected to vary, with Southeast Asia, South America, and the Middle East showing positive trends, while North America and Europe may experience weaker demand [2][20] Risks and Challenges - The industry faces risks related to the sustainability of domestic demand recovery and the influence of the real estate cycle on machinery demand [2][5] - Fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices, particularly steel, could impact profit margins [2][14] - The need for supply chain optimization and monitoring of overseas market conditions, especially in Eastern Europe, is crucial for future growth [2][14] Conclusion - Liugong's strong technological foundation and proactive approach to reforms position it well for future growth, with expectations of continued revenue and profit increases [2][10][18] - The engineering machinery industry is at a pivotal point, with potential for recovery and growth driven by domestic demand and international market expansion [2][19][20]

证券代码：000528 证券简称：柳 工 公告编号：2025-09 债券代码：127084 债券简称：柳工转2 广西柳工机械股份有限公司 广西柳工机械股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 28 日召开第九届 董事会第二十六次（临时）会议，审议通过了《关于公司回购股份方案（第二期）的 议案》，同意公司使用自有资金及股票回购专项贷款资金通过集中竞价的方式回购部 分公司已发行的人民币普通股（A 股）股票，用于新一期的股权激励或员工持股计划。 本次回购金额区间为不低于人民币 30,000 万元（含）且不超过人民币 60,000 万元 （含），回购价格为不超过人民币 18.20 元/股（含），该价格不高于董事会通过回购 决议前三十个交易日公司股票交易均价的 150%。具体回购股份的数量以回购期满时 实际回购的股份数量为准。上述具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 12 月 3 日在巨潮资讯网 （www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《公司第九届董事会第二十六次（临时）会议决议公告》 （公告编号：2024-81）、《公司关于回购股份方案（第二期）暨取得金融机构股份回 购专项贷款承诺函的公告》（公告编 ...

证券代码：000528 证券简称：柳 工 公告编号：2025-08 债券代码：127084 债券简称：柳工转2 广西柳工机械股份有限公司 关于非公开发行股份部分解除限售上市流通的提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 2022 年 3 月 31 日、2023 年 2 月 22 日，公司分别完成部分 2018 年限制性股票 回购注销，总股本由 1,955,019,991 股减少为 1,951,261,261 股。 2023 年 7 月 28 日，公司基于吸收合并交易业绩承诺实现情况及补偿方案完成广 西柳工集团有限公司（以下简称"柳工集团"）业绩补偿股份的回购注销，总股本由 1,951,261,261 股减少为 1,951,205,775 股。 1、本次解除限售上市流通的股份数量为 537,484,776 股，占广西柳工机械股份有 限公司（以下简称"柳工"或"公司"）截止 2 月 21 日股本总额的 26.6183%。 2、本次限售股上市流通日期为 2025 年 3 月 4 日。 一、公司非公开发行股份的基本情况 经中国证券监督管理 ...

中信证券股份有限公司 关于广西柳工机械股份有限公司吸收合并 （一）本次限售股核准情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简称"中国证监会"）《关于核准广西柳 工机械股份有限公司向广西柳工集团有限公司等发行股份吸收合并广西柳工集 团机械有限公司的批复》（证监许可[2021]4021 号）核准，广西柳工机械股份 有限公司向 9 名投资者非公开发行 A 股股票合计 991,782,278 股，具体发行情 况如下： | 序号 | 发行对象 | 发行股份数量（股） | 限售期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 广西柳工集团有限公司 | 505,809,038 | 个月 36 | | 2 | 广西招工服贸投资合伙企业（有限合伙） | 150,867,425 | 个月 12 | | 3 | 国新双百壹号（杭州）股权投资合伙企业 | 99,845,895 | 12 个月 | 广西柳工集团机械有限公司暨关联交易 之部分限售股解禁上市流通的核查意见 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"或"独立财务顾问"）作为 广西柳工机械股份有限公司（以下简称"柳工"、"公司"或"上市公司"）吸 收合并广西柳 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.85 CNY based on a 14x PE for 2025 [4]. Core Views - The company is leveraging reforms to drive growth, with significant profit releases observed. The integration of various business segments post-reform is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [1][25]. - Domestic and international demand for construction machinery is anticipated to rise, with excavator sales in China projected to reach 100,500 units in 2024, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year increase [2][43]. - The company is focusing on modularization and standardization of excavator components, which is expected to boost market share and revenue growth in both domestic and international markets [3][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Reform-Driven Growth - The company has undergone significant structural changes, including the introduction of mixed ownership and the absorption of subsidiaries, which have optimized its equity structure and operational efficiency [1][12]. - A second round of stock incentives was launched in 2023, with a total of 58.54 million shares allocated, aimed at enhancing ROE and profit growth [21][25]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, reducing reliance on earth-moving machinery and integrating pre-stressed and agricultural machinery to mitigate cyclical fluctuations [16][18]. 2. Demand Outlook - Domestic excavator sales are expected to stabilize, with a recovery in the replacement cycle supporting ongoing demand growth [2][43]. - Internationally, demand is projected to rebound, particularly in mature markets and emerging regions, driven by economic stimulus measures [2][30]. 3. Excavator Market Dynamics - The company is enhancing its market position in the excavator segment, with a continuous increase in market share expected through 2024 [3][44]. - The global market share remains low, indicating substantial growth potential, especially as overseas demand improves [3][50]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 30.135 billion, 35.027 billion, and 40.786 billion CNY, with net profits projected at 1.371 billion, 2.141 billion, and 2.882 billion CNY respectively [4][7]. - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve, with a significant increase in profitability observed in recent quarters [28][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.85 RMB based on a 14x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Views - The company is leveraging reforms to drive growth, with significant profit releases expected. The integration of various business segments post-reform is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [1][2]. - Domestic and international demand for excavators is expected to resonate positively, with projections indicating a recovery in sales and a favorable market environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has undergone significant changes post-reform, including the merger with Liugong Limited, which has optimized its equity structure and diversified its product offerings into less cyclical segments such as pre-stressed and agricultural machinery [1]. - A second round of equity incentives was initiated in 2023, with 58.54 million shares at an exercise price of 6.9 RMB per share, aimed at improving ROE and profit metrics [1]. - Manufacturing and procurement costs have decreased by 3.4% and 4.3% respectively in the first half of 2024, leading to an increase in net profit margin to 6.3%, up 4.1 percentage points from 2022 [1]. Domestic and International Demand - Domestic excavator sales are projected to reach 100,500 units in 2024, reflecting an 11.7% year-on-year increase, with a continued upward trend expected through 2027 [1]. - Internationally, demand is anticipated to recover, particularly in mature markets post-election and in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America, with expectations of sustained growth in 2025 [1][2]. Excavator Market Dynamics - The company is enhancing its market share in the excavator segment through modularization and standardization of components, with a projected increase in market share for 2023 and 2024 [2]. - Overseas revenue reached 7.71 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, marking an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued high growth in international markets [2]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 30.135 billion RMB, 35.027 billion RMB, and 40.786 billion RMB respectively, with net profits projected at 1.371 billion RMB, 2.141 billion RMB, and 2.882 billion RMB [3]. - The company’s PE ratios are expected to decrease from 16 in 2024 to 8 in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to significantly improve in 2024 due to market recovery and enhanced operational efficiency [4] - The company has achieved substantial growth in net profit, with forecasts indicating a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70% for 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The current stock price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23 billion yuan and a total share count of 2019 million shares [1] Industry Overview - The earthmoving machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with excavator sales increasing by 16% year-on-year in December 2024 [4] - The overall demand for earthmoving machinery is on the rise, contributing to the company's performance [4] Company Strategy - The company has implemented a flexible strategy focusing on "profit growth, business growth, and capability enhancement" as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan [4] - The completion of the mixed-ownership reform has diversified the shareholder structure and optimized governance, enhancing the company's internal vitality [5] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 30.26 billion yuan, 34.92 billion yuan, and 40.59 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.72, 1.01, and 1.30 yuan [9][11] - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 1.26 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan, with a significant increase in profitability metrics [3][11] Product Development - The company is a leader in the industry for electric products, having achieved full electrification across its product lines, with significant advancements in electric excavators and autonomous machinery [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2024, with a projected net profit of approximately 1.258 billion to 1.475 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 45% to 70% [3] - The construction machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved operational efficiency contributing to the company's performance [4] - The company has successfully implemented a mixed-ownership reform, enhancing its internal vitality and diversifying its shareholder structure [5] - The company is a leader in the electric product market, having achieved full electrification across its product lines, with significant advancements in electric and autonomous machinery [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of February 12, 2025, the company's stock price is 11.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 23 billion yuan and a total share count of 2,019 million [1] Industry Overview - The construction machinery market is experiencing a rebound, with excavator sales increasing by 16% year-on-year in December 2024, and overall excavator sales for the year reaching 201,100 units, a 3.13% increase [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 30.257 billion, 34.918 billion, and 40.589 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.72, 1.01, and 1.30 yuan [9] - The company is expected to see a net profit growth rate of 67.8% in 2024, followed by 39.7% in 2025 and 29.0% in 2026 [11] Operational Efficiency - The company has adopted flexible strategies to enhance profitability, business growth, and capability development, leading to significant operational efficiency improvements [4]