Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao demonstrates resilience and strategic determination in a challenging economic environment, achieving steady growth and maintaining its position as an industry leader [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, growing 1.78% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.41% increase [2]. Market Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has maintained a stable revenue growth for ten consecutive years, instilling confidence in the market amid industry adjustments [3]. - The company has deepened its market layout, with its flagship brand, Guojiao, leading the market and maintaining a position within the 20 billion yuan segment, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand focuses on the mid-tier market, surpassing 10 billion yuan [3]. - The company has implemented strategies such as the "Hundred Cities Plan 2.0" and "East China Strategy 2.0" to enhance market penetration, supported by a stable domestic dealer network of over 1,700 and an international network of 85 dealers [3]. Financial Structure - Luzhou Laojiao maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 30% and has cash reserves of 33.578 billion yuan, providing a buffer against market fluctuations [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling approximately 8.758 billion yuan, which represents about 65% of its net profit [3]. Innovation and Development - The company has invested 1.035 billion yuan in R&D over the past five years, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 26.40% in R&D spending [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao has established several national-level innovation platforms and holds numerous patents, positioning itself at the forefront of industry innovation [5]. Marketing and Brand Value - The company utilizes technology and big data to enhance its marketing ecosystem, improving supply chain flexibility and consumer engagement [6]. - Luzhou Laojiao is actively involved in cultural initiatives and events to elevate its brand presence and expand its global influence [6]. ESG and Social Responsibility - The company is committed to sustainable development, investing 58.01 million yuan in environmental management and promoting low-carbon supply chains [7]. - Luzhou Laojiao has initiated various social responsibility projects, benefiting over 4,460 individuals through targeted assistance programs [7]. Management and Governance - The company has focused on refining its management practices, achieving high compliance ratings and recognition for its governance framework [8]. - Luzhou Laojiao is enhancing its operational efficiency through digital transformation initiatives [8]. Long-term Vision - Luzhou Laojiao emphasizes a long-term strategic vision, aiming for steady growth through innovation and consumer engagement [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a payout ratio of at least 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [1][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.2 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 2.4% in 2025, 6.7% in 2026, and 7.4% in 2027 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.8 billion CNY in 2025, with growth rates of 2.1% in 2025, 7.1% in 2026, and 8.7% in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 9.35 CNY in 2025, increasing to 10.01 CNY in 2026 and 10.89 CNY in 2027 [3]. Operational Insights - The company is experiencing a steady operational performance, with a focus on digital transformation to enhance pricing systems and inventory management [7]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 86.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to the impact of digital product introductions [7]. - The company aims to improve market penetration in various regions, particularly in Southwest and North China, while also enhancing its high-end product pricing strategy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a minimum payout ratio of 65% for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [7][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 31,196 million CNY with a growth rate of 3.2%. Net profit was 13,473 million CNY, growing at 1.7% [3][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected revenue of 31,932 million CNY with a growth rate of 2.4%. Projected net profit is 13,758 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.1% [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS for 2024 is 9.15 CNY, projected to increase to 9.35 CNY in 2025 and 10.01 CNY in 2026 [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 14 for 2024, decreasing to 12 by 2027. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.9 to 2.9 over the same period [3][8]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining revenue and profit growth despite industry pressures, with a focus on inventory management and digital transformation to enhance pricing and market order [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in cash flow due to bill discounting, with contract liabilities at a high level of 3.07 billion CNY at the end of Q1 2025 [7][8].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 泸州老窖（000568） 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：经营稳健， 分红上修凸显长期价值 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 30,233 | 31,196 | 31,926 | 34,673 | 38,332 | | 同比（%） | 20.34 | 3.19 | 2.34 | 8.60 | 10.55 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 13,246 | 13,473 | 13,759 | 14,937 | 16,468 | | 同比（%） | 27.79 | 1.71 | 2.12 | 8.56 | 10.25 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.00 | 9.15 | 9.35 | 10.15 | 11.19 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable operations, with an upward revision in dividends highlighting its long-term value [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [8][3] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [3][8] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [3][8] - The sales net profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.3% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in gross sales margin [3][8] - The gross margin for the company was 86.5%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][8] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue of 31.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 13.8 billion yuan, and projects a net profit of 16.5 billion yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13, 12, and 11 respectively [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 125.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 184.5 billion yuan [6][8] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.68 [6][8] Operational Insights - The company has implemented refined marketing strategies, including the integration of dining and wine experiences, which have shown positive results in sales [3][8] - The company has successfully managed inventory and sales strategies to prepare for seasonal demand, particularly for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [3][8]

Industry Overview - The performance of listed liquor companies has been disclosed, with nearly 20 companies reporting their 2024 annual reports and some also releasing Q1 reports as of April 27 [1] - The overall trend shows a slowdown in the liquor industry, particularly in the white liquor segment, while top brands continue to show growth [1] - Beer stocks have rebounded in Q1 after a decline last year, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reporting high growth in profits [1] Company Performance - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1] - Gujing Gongjiu achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, growing 16.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, a 3.19% increase, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [3] - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 3.827 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.69% increase, with a net profit of 165 million yuan, up 61.10% [4] - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 1.227 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 10.69% increase, with a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 29.83% [4] - Laobai Gan Jiu reported a revenue of 5.358 billion yuan for 2024, a 1.9% increase, with a net profit of 787 million yuan, up 18% [5] - Tianyoude Jiu's revenue for 2024 was 1.255 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, but net profit fell by 53% to 42.135 million yuan [7] - Zhangyu A reported a revenue of 811 million yuan in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.01%, with a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 0.21% [8] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant differentiation between leading brands and others, with some companies facing delisting risks due to poor performance [1] - The overall liquor market is still in a period of adjustment, with increased competition and declining production [7] - Guizhou province's liquor manufacturing sector saw a growth of 6.6% in Q1 2025, contributing to the overall economic growth of the region [16] - The import of wine has rebounded to become the top category, while the import value of spirits has decreased significantly [17]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2024 reached ¥31,196,248,208.33, an increase of 3.19% compared to ¥30,233,301,388.26 in 2023[20] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was ¥13,472,986,476.01, reflecting a growth of 1.71% from ¥13,246,394,700.59 in the previous year[20] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were ¥9.18, a 1.77% increase from ¥9.02 in 2023[20] - The total assets at the end of 2024 amounted to ¥68,334,595,564.58, representing a 7.96% increase from ¥63,294,455,201.60 in 2023[20] - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 14.49% to ¥47,388,500,553.46, compared to ¥41,391,410,494.89 at the end of 2023[20] - The revenue from liquor sales amounted to ¥31,052,653,337, accounting for 99.54% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 3.24%[61] - The sales volume of liquor increased by 7.77% to 103,761.06 tons in 2024, compared to 96,278.12 tons in 2023[63] - The gross profit margin for liquor was 87.62%, with a slight decrease of 0.79% from the previous year[62] Cash Flow and Dividends - The net cash flow from operating activities surged by 80.14% to ¥19,181,768,363.65, up from ¥10,648,364,935.46 in 2023[20] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of ¥8,758,111,442.85 for the 2024 fiscal year, which is approximately 65.00% of the net profit attributable to shareholders[6][7] - The company has implemented a mid-year dividend distribution of ¥13.58 per 10 shares, totaling ¥1,998,910,141.07[6] Operational Efficiency and Production - The company’s production of high-end liquor increased by 26.18% year-on-year to 39,441.69 tons, while sales rose by 14.39% to 42,990.65 tons[40] - The company has a designed production capacity of 170,000 tons for liquor, with an additional 80,000 tons under construction, indicating plans for future expansion[42] - The company achieved a processing capacity of 100,000 tons for its waste resource utilization project, which passed national acceptance in August 2024[75] - The project for the utilization of brewing waste achieved over 90% resource utilization and over 95% energy recycling rate[75] Market and Consumer Trends - The company is adapting to industry trends by emphasizing innovation and targeting younger consumers, as the liquor market is expected to undergo significant differentiation and competition[30] - The younger generation, particularly Generation Z, is driving the demand for personalized and aesthetically appealing liquor products[104] - The company emphasizes the need to adapt to consumer preferences for health and social responsibility in product offerings[103] Research and Development - The company has invested a total of 1,035.43 million yuan in R&D over the past five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.40% in innovation R&D investment[120] - The company has published 38 scientific papers and filed 165 patent applications, with 53 patents granted, showcasing its strong technological capabilities[56] - The company established a solid-state brewing technology innovation center, aiming to enhance technological innovation capabilities and achieve breakthroughs in key technologies[76] Governance and Management - The company has established a clear "dual brand, three product lines, and major single product" brand system, significantly enhancing brand recognition and value[50] - The company has a structured remuneration decision-making process based on performance assessments established at the beginning of the year[146] - The company has a dedicated independent board of directors and management team capable of making operational decisions within their authority[129] Environmental Responsibility - The company is committed to complying with various environmental protection laws and standards during its operations[184] - The company invested 58.01 million yuan in environmental governance and protection during the reporting period[196] - The company achieved a 34.28% reduction in particulate matter emissions, a 22.03% reduction in nitrogen oxides, and a 2.69% reduction in sulfur dioxide emissions compared to the same period last year[190] Strategic Plans and Future Outlook - For 2025, the company plans to ensure steady growth in operating revenue while emphasizing market expansion, team development, and product coverage[109] - The company aims to enhance its market management capabilities and maintain brand image, ensuring that its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, remains a top-tier high-end liquor[110] - The company is focusing on high-quality development and the construction of "Smart Luzhou Laojiao," aiming for stable channel management and price stability[108] Employee Management and Development - The total number of employees at the end of the reporting period is 3,832, including 1,292 at the parent company and 2,540 at major subsidiaries[159] - The company implements a compensation policy that links salary growth to company performance and profit growth, ensuring that salary increases do not exceed performance growth rates[161] - The company has established a comprehensive employee incentive plan, including stock options and performance-based rewards, to enhance employee engagement and retention[166]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In the first quarter, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 150.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments announced an optimization of the departure tax refund policy, raising the cash refund limit to 20,000 yuan [4][6] Group 2: Company Earnings - Gujing Gongjiu reported a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.22%, and proposed a dividend of 50 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Gree Electric reported a net profit of 32.185 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and proposed a dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Luzhou Laojiao reported a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, and proposed a dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Yake Technology reported a net profit of 872 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 50.41%, and proposed a dividend of 2.6 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Yunda Holdings reported a net profit of 1.914 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and proposed a dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares [8] Group 3: Significant Corporate Announcements - National City Mining reported a net profit of 612 million yuan for the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18,279.65%, primarily due to increased investment income from the sale of subsidiaries [9] - Zhenghe Ecology signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Yanshan (Hebei) Cultural Tourism Development Group, planning a total investment of 2 billion yuan for a tourism integration project [9] - New Life Fortune announced plans to issue shares and pay cash to acquire 100% of Guangzhou Jinnan Magnetic Materials, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [9] - Chengdi Xiangjiang announced that its subsidiary won a bid for a project with a contract value of 1.632 billion yuan, with a construction period of 92 days [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company has released its quarterly report, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the financial information disclosed, with no significant omissions or misleading statements [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - The company reported a decrease in accounts receivable financing balance by 602,756,258.64 yuan, a reduction of 33.45%, primarily due to the impact of bill discounting and bill maturity [5]. - The balance of prepaid expenses increased by 117,619,722.04 yuan, an increase of 94.95%, mainly due to higher prepayments to advertising suppliers [5]. - Other current assets decreased by 207,243,467.97 yuan, a reduction of 85.96%, attributed to the offset of prior year's tax credits [5]. - Deferred tax assets decreased by 179,179,125.98 yuan, a reduction of 42.24%, mainly due to the decrease in unrealized profits from internal transactions and the reversal of restricted stock unlocks [5]. - The balance of employee compensation payable decreased by 230,481,981.50 yuan, a reduction of 41.63%, due to the payment of last year's performance bonuses [5]. - Taxes payable decreased by 1,023,611,643.36 yuan, a reduction of 31.65%, primarily due to the payment of taxes owed at the beginning of the period [5]. - Current portion of non-current liabilities increased by 1,499,492,365.17 yuan, an increase of 45.76%, due to the reclassification of long-term borrowings and the repayment of corporate bonds [5][6]. - Long-term borrowings decreased by 3,051,700,000.00 yuan, a reduction of 48.59%, mainly due to reclassification to current liabilities [6]. - Financial expenses decreased by 60,239,722.44 yuan compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the reclassification of bill discounting expenses to investment income [6]. - Other income increased by 11,168,461.78 yuan, an increase of 139.02%, mainly due to an increase in deferred income amortization [6]. - Investment income decreased by 18,947,842.40 yuan, a reduction of 102%, primarily due to the reclassification of bill discounting expenses [6]. - Non-operating expenses increased by 26,172,463.55 yuan, an increase of 3162.31%, mainly due to increased donation expenses [6]. - Net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 60,158,437.67 yuan, primarily due to increased cash payments for long-term asset investments [6]. - Net cash flow from financing activities decreased by 5,439,119,558.41 yuan, a reduction of 296.57%, mainly due to mid-term dividends and repayment of corporate bond principal and interest [7]. Shareholder Information - The company held meetings to approve the unlocking of restricted stock under the 2021 incentive plan, with a total of 2,059,599 shares being unlocked for trading on specified dates [9][10]. - The company implemented a mid-term dividend plan, distributing 13.58 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 1,998,910,141.07 yuan [10].

Mergers and Acquisitions - Xinlaifu plans to acquire 100% of Jin Nan Magnetic Materials, with the transaction expected to constitute a major asset restructuring. The company aims to strategically expand its business boundaries and achieve deep industry chain collaboration through the integration of core technologies in permanent and soft magnetic materials, as well as powder metallurgy [1] - Deep Keda intends to purchase 16.92% of Xianma Technology for 47.376 million yuan, which will increase its ownership to 80.92%. Xianma Technology is noted for having the highest gross margin and profitability within the company's consolidated financial statements [2] - Zhongrun Optical plans to use its own funds and part of the raised funds to acquire 51% of Dais Optoelectronics for a total of 158 million yuan. This acquisition will allow for shared market channels and customer resources, enhancing technological collaboration and achieving complementary advantages [3] Performance Disclosure - Gree Electric reported a revenue of approximately 189.164 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.91% to 32.185 billion yuan. The company has diversified its product categories, achieving strong retail performance [4] - Luzhou Laojiao announced a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71%. The company emphasizes its marketing strategy focused on digital innovation and efficient collaboration [5] - China Power Construction reported a revenue of 633.685 billion yuan for 2024, a 4.07% increase, but net profit decreased by 7.21% to 12.015 billion yuan. The company highlights steady operational improvements and compliance in its business practices [6] Share Buybacks - Lian Ce Technology plans to repurchase shares worth between 10 million and 20 million yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 40 yuan per share, intended for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [7] - Zhenhua Heavy Industry intends to repurchase shares worth between 50 million and 100 million yuan, with a maximum price of 6.93 yuan per share, for the purpose of cancellation and reducing registered capital [9] - Wanxing Technology's actual controller proposed a share buyback of 25 million to 50 million yuan, to be executed through centralized bidding for future employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [10]