Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gaining attention due to increased external uncertainties and positive domestic policy signals, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12][16] - The liquor sector is expected to show a "front low, back high" performance trend for the year, with a focus on inventory digestion in the first half and gradual demand recovery in the second half [17][32] - The consumer goods sector, particularly those related to the catering supply chain and benefiting from fertility policy catalysts, is highlighted for potential investment opportunities [39] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Expectations and Industry Focus - Increased external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on domestic demand as a crucial element for economic growth [12] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively influenced market confidence, with a comprehensive action plan to enhance consumer spending [13][16] 2. Liquor Sector - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 10%, with a focus on inventory management during the off-peak season [17] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-range and regional brands are experiencing varied performance based on market conditions [19] - Major liquor companies are engaging in share buybacks and increasing shareholdings to bolster market confidence [24][30] 3. Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention to the seasoning, beer, dairy, and snack segments [39] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in restaurant consumption, while the beer sector is poised for growth due to the resurgence of dining scenarios [40] - Dairy demand is anticipated to rise following the introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions, which could positively impact dairy company performance [39]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index reported at 24307.01 points [1] - The CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index has decreased by 1.04% over the past month, increased by 6.78% over the past three months, and has decreased by 0.32% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [2] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index are: Kweichow Moutai (50.89%), Wuliangye (13.09%), Yili (9.64%), Shanxi Fenjiu (5.39%), Luzhou Laojiao (4.82%), Haitian Flavoring (3.66%), Dongpeng Beverage (3.02%), Yanghe Distillery (2.28%), Jinshiyuan (1.92%), and Shuanghui Development (1.45%) [2] - The market share of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index is 75.95% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 24.05% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Group 3 - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Food and Beverage Index shows that liquor accounts for 79.81%, dairy products for 9.64%, condiments and cooking oil for 4.64%, soft drinks for 3.02%, meat products for 1.45%, and beer for 1.43% [3] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made when the CSI 300 Index samples are modified [3]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71%, but failed to meet the board's target of at least 15% revenue growth [2][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company did not achieve the board's revenue growth target of 15%, realizing only a 3.19% increase [2][6] - The chairman Liu Miao's salary decreased to 1.3691 million yuan, down approximately 292,900 yuan from the previous year, while the general manager Lin Feng's salary fell to 1.352 million yuan, a reduction of about 291,000 yuan [3][4] Group 2: Management and Compensation - Most executives experienced salary reductions, with the financial director's pay dropping from 1.299 million yuan to 1.093 million yuan, a decrease of 206,000 yuan [4] - Some executives, however, received salary increases, such as the vice president Xiong Pingting, whose salary rose from 952,000 yuan to 1.0725 million yuan, an increase of 120,500 yuan [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims for "steady progress" in revenue without specifying a clear target, indicating potential uncertainty for distributors and investors [2][6] - The company emphasized maintaining price stability and brand image, particularly for its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, amidst competitive pressures [6][7]

泸州老窖（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000568） 公司点评 稳中求进，静待修复 ——泸州老窖 24 年报&25Q1 点评 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-04-28 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 125.36 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） 186.79/97.77 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,472 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,469 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.82 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1,845 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,842 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -55% -35% -14% 7% 27% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 泸州老窖 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 执业证书号：S0010124040001 主要观点： ⚫ 利润：结构扰动 ⚫ 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao demonstrates resilience and strategic determination in a challenging economic environment, achieving steady growth and maintaining its position as an industry leader [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.352 billion yuan, growing 1.78% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.41% increase [2]. Market Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao has maintained a stable revenue growth for ten consecutive years, instilling confidence in the market amid industry adjustments [3]. - The company has deepened its market layout, with its flagship brand, Guojiao, leading the market and maintaining a position within the 20 billion yuan segment, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand focuses on the mid-tier market, surpassing 10 billion yuan [3]. - The company has implemented strategies such as the "Hundred Cities Plan 2.0" and "East China Strategy 2.0" to enhance market penetration, supported by a stable domestic dealer network of over 1,700 and an international network of 85 dealers [3]. Financial Structure - Luzhou Laojiao maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 30% and has cash reserves of 33.578 billion yuan, providing a buffer against market fluctuations [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling approximately 8.758 billion yuan, which represents about 65% of its net profit [3]. Innovation and Development - The company has invested 1.035 billion yuan in R&D over the past five years, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 26.40% in R&D spending [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao has established several national-level innovation platforms and holds numerous patents, positioning itself at the forefront of industry innovation [5]. Marketing and Brand Value - The company utilizes technology and big data to enhance its marketing ecosystem, improving supply chain flexibility and consumer engagement [6]. - Luzhou Laojiao is actively involved in cultural initiatives and events to elevate its brand presence and expand its global influence [6]. ESG and Social Responsibility - The company is committed to sustainable development, investing 58.01 million yuan in environmental management and promoting low-carbon supply chains [7]. - Luzhou Laojiao has initiated various social responsibility projects, benefiting over 4,460 individuals through targeted assistance programs [7]. Management and Governance - The company has focused on refining its management practices, achieving high compliance ratings and recognition for its governance framework [8]. - Luzhou Laojiao is enhancing its operational efficiency through digital transformation initiatives [8]. Long-term Vision - Luzhou Laojiao emphasizes a long-term strategic vision, aiming for steady growth through innovation and consumer engagement [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a payout ratio of at least 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [1][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.2 billion CNY, with expected growth rates of 2.4% in 2025, 6.7% in 2026, and 7.4% in 2027 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 13.8 billion CNY in 2025, with growth rates of 2.1% in 2025, 7.1% in 2026, and 8.7% in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to be 9.35 CNY in 2025, increasing to 10.01 CNY in 2026 and 10.89 CNY in 2027 [3]. Operational Insights - The company is experiencing a steady operational performance, with a focus on digital transformation to enhance pricing systems and inventory management [7]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 86.5%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to the impact of digital product introductions [7]. - The company aims to improve market penetration in various regions, particularly in Southwest and North China, while also enhancing its high-end product pricing strategy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao (000568) with a target price of 206 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion CNY, up 1.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue decline of 16.9% and a net profit drop of 29.9% [1][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion CNY, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion CNY, up 0.4% year-on-year. However, sales receipts decreased by 7.3% [1][7]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and improving product coverage, with a three-year dividend plan ensuring a minimum payout ratio of 65% for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, enhancing its attractiveness for long-term investors [7][8]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 31,196 million CNY with a growth rate of 3.2%. Net profit was 13,473 million CNY, growing at 1.7% [3][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected revenue of 31,932 million CNY with a growth rate of 2.4%. Projected net profit is 13,758 million CNY, with a growth rate of 2.1% [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS for 2024 is 9.15 CNY, projected to increase to 9.35 CNY in 2025 and 10.01 CNY in 2026 [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 14 for 2024, decreasing to 12 by 2027. The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.9 to 2.9 over the same period [3][8]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in maintaining revenue and profit growth despite industry pressures, with a focus on inventory management and digital transformation to enhance pricing and market order [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in cash flow due to bill discounting, with contract liabilities at a high level of 3.07 billion CNY at the end of Q1 2025 [7][8].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 泸州老窖（000568） 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：经营稳健， 分红上修凸显长期价值 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 30,233 | 31,196 | 31,926 | 34,673 | 38,332 | | 同比（%） | 20.34 | 3.19 | 2.34 | 8.60 | 10.55 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 13,246 | 13,473 | 13,759 | 14,937 | 16,468 | | 同比（%） | 27.79 | 1.71 | 2.12 | 8.56 | 10.25 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 9.00 | 9.15 | 9.35 | 10.15 | 11.19 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable operations, with an upward revision in dividends highlighting its long-term value [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [8][3] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [3][8] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [3][8] - The sales net profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.3% in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in gross sales margin [3][8] - The gross margin for the company was 86.5%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][8] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts total revenue of 31.9 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 13.8 billion yuan, and projects a net profit of 16.5 billion yuan by 2027 [1][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13, 12, and 11 respectively [1][8] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 125.36 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 184.5 billion yuan [6][8] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 3.68 [6][8] Operational Insights - The company has implemented refined marketing strategies, including the integration of dining and wine experiences, which have shown positive results in sales [3][8] - The company has successfully managed inventory and sales strategies to prepare for seasonal demand, particularly for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [3][8]

Industry Overview - The performance of listed liquor companies has been disclosed, with nearly 20 companies reporting their 2024 annual reports and some also releasing Q1 reports as of April 27 [1] - The overall trend shows a slowdown in the liquor industry, particularly in the white liquor segment, while top brands continue to show growth [1] - Beer stocks have rebounded in Q1 after a decline last year, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reporting high growth in profits [1] Company Performance - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1] - Gujing Gongjiu achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, growing 16.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, a 3.19% increase, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [3] - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 3.827 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.69% increase, with a net profit of 165 million yuan, up 61.10% [4] - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 1.227 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 10.69% increase, with a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 29.83% [4] - Laobai Gan Jiu reported a revenue of 5.358 billion yuan for 2024, a 1.9% increase, with a net profit of 787 million yuan, up 18% [5] - Tianyoude Jiu's revenue for 2024 was 1.255 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, but net profit fell by 53% to 42.135 million yuan [7] - Zhangyu A reported a revenue of 811 million yuan in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.01%, with a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 0.21% [8] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant differentiation between leading brands and others, with some companies facing delisting risks due to poor performance [1] - The overall liquor market is still in a period of adjustment, with increased competition and declining production [7] - Guizhou province's liquor manufacturing sector saw a growth of 6.6% in Q1 2025, contributing to the overall economic growth of the region [16] - The import of wine has rebounded to become the top category, while the import value of spirits has decreased significantly [17]