[Shandong Haihua 2025 Semi-Annual Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=%E5%B1%B1%E4%B8%9C%E6%B5%B7%E5%8C%96%E8%82%A1%E4%BB%BD%E6%9C%89%E9%99%90%E5%85%AC%E5%8F%B8%202025%20%E5%B9%B4%E5%8D%8A%E5%B9%B4%E5%BA%A6%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E5%91%8A) [Performance Forecast Details](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%B8%80%E3%80%81%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%9F%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E9%A2%84%E8%AE%A1%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5) The company anticipates a significant net loss for H1 2025, reversing from a prior year profit and resulting in negative basic EPS Key Financial Performance Indicators | Item | Current Reporting Period (Jan 1 - Jun 30, 2025) | Prior Year Same Period | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders** | Loss: RMB 210 million – RMB 290 million | Profit: RMB 224.3527 million | | **Net Profit After Non-Recurring Gains/Losses** | Loss: RMB 240 million – RMB 320 million | Profit: RMB 201.9957 million | | **Basic Earnings Per Share** | Loss: RMB 0.23/share – RMB 0.32/share | Profit: RMB 0.25/share | [Communication with Accounting Firm](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%BA%8C%E3%80%81%E4%B8%8E%E4%BC%9A%E8%AE%A1%E5%B8%88%E4%BA%8B%E5%8A%A1%E6%89%80%E6%B2%9F%E9%80%9A%E6%83%85%E5%86%B5) The performance forecast data is a preliminary estimate by the company's finance department and remains unaudited - The performance forecast data is a preliminary estimate by the company's finance department and has not been audited[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Explanation of Performance Change](index=1&type=section&id=%E4%B8%89%E3%80%81%E4%B8%9A%E7%BB%A9%E5%8F%98%E5%8A%A8%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E) Performance decline is primarily due to significant decreases in soda ash sales price and volume, driven by reduced downstream demand - The shift from profit to loss is primarily due to a significant year-over-year decline in both sales volume and price of the main product, soda ash, driven by a downturn in downstream demand[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Other Relevant Information](index=1&type=section&id=%E5%9B%9B%E3%80%81%E5%85%B6%E4%BB%96%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E8%AF%B4%E6%98%8E) Detailed financial data will be disclosed in the semi-annual report on **August 22, 2025**, with the company advising investors to be aware of risks - The detailed **2025 semi-annual report** will be disclosed on **August 22, 2025**[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The company's designated information disclosure media are China Securities Journal, Securities Times, and Juchao Information website, advising investors to be aware of risks[5](index=5&type=chunk)

山东海化（000822）公告，预计2025年上半年净利润亏损2.1亿元-2.9亿元，上年同期为盈利2.24亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the doc 2. Core Views 2.1纯碱市场 - 检修带动短期产量偏低但后续将提升，计划内检修较少；国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口窗口未开，国内价格低位出口较好；终端备货充足，需求有回落预期，库存压力难解；市场正反馈情绪回落后维持偏空思路，短期防范风险观望为主 [7][9] 2.2玻璃市场 - 部分前期点火产线等待出品，供应端存政策端利多导向但暂未落地；近周末市场氛围受盘面走强提振，观察梅雨季后市场情绪变化；需求情绪走强库存下行；低位多单持有思路，情绪转弱则灵活离场 [153][155] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量70.89万吨，环比持平，预计后续提升；重质产量40.01万吨，环比增0.43万吨；轻质产量30.88万吨，环比降0.43万吨；进口0.03万吨，环比持平；出口4.1万吨，环比持平；浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；光伏玻璃日熔量91400t/d，环比降600t/d；重碱消费量33.70万吨，环比增0.02万吨；轻碱表需29.57万吨，环比增0.88万吨；纯碱表需65.50万吨，环比降1.13万吨；碱厂库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨；社会库存23.80万吨，环比增1.00万吨；样本终端原料天数23.36天，环比增1.54天；氨碱法成本1281元，环比持平；氨碱法利润 -81元，环比增40元；联碱法成本1142元，环比降8元；联碱法利润8元，环比增48元；华中重碱 - 轻碱价差0元，环比持平；沙河市场价基差 -75元，环比降48元 [7] 3.1.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年各月纯碱当月产量、进口量、表观需求量、出口量数据 [15][17][18][20] 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、纯碱合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [24][25][26][27][29][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][40][41] 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱当期价1207元，环比上周涨23元，环比去年降693元；轻重碱区域价格有不同变化；展示了各区域重质、轻质纯碱价格及价差数据 [44][48][68] 3.1.5供应 - 目前多家企业检修/降负荷，部分企业有计划检修；当期国内纯碱开工率81.32%，环比上周持平，环比去年降6.01%；周产量70.89万吨，环比上周持平，环比去年降1.91%；重质纯碱产量40.01万吨，环比上周增0.43万吨，环比去年降2.47万吨；轻质纯碱产量30.88万吨，环比上周降0.43万吨，环比去年增0.56万吨；重质化率56.44%，环比上周增0.61%，环比去年降1.91%；产销比92.40%，环比上周降1.59%，环比去年降18.59% [74][75] 3.1.6需求 - 展示了浮法、光伏玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、周度需求、周度表观消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格数据 [122][124][126][128][130][131][134][135] 3.1.7库存 - 当期纯碱企业库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨，环比去年增87.98万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存79.13万吨，环比降1.35万吨，环比去年增20.80万吨；重质纯碱企业库存107.21万吨，环比增6.74万吨，环比去年增67.18万吨；库存天数15.45天，环比增0.45天，环比去年增7.19天 [139] 3.1.8仓单数量/有效预报 - Not provided in the doc 3.1.9地产相关数据 - Not provided in the doc 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 当期浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；周产量110.90万吨，环比增0.45万吨；表观消费量120.81万吨，环比增9.71万吨；厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨；天然气线成本1408元，环比增8元；天然气线利润 -178元，环比降8元；煤制气线成本931元，环比增12元；煤制气线利润214元，环比降6元；石油焦线成本1051元，环比增8元；石油焦线利润19元，环比降8元；华东 - 华中价差160元，环比持平；沙河5mm大板基差 -79元，环比降47元 [153] 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、当月产量同比、当月出口量数据 [160][162][163][165] 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、玻璃合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [169][170][171][172][174][175][176][178][180][181][183][184][185][186] 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区不同规格价格及环比情况；还展示了各区域浮法玻璃5mm市场价及沙河、湖北部分企业5mm大板含税价数据 [190][192][193][195][196][198][200][202][204][206][208][210][211][213][215][216][217][219][221][223] 3.2.5供应 - 当期浮法玻璃煤制气企业利润108.78元，环比增22.80元；石油焦企业利润 -50.47元，环比增34.29元；天然气企业利润 -183.11元，环比增5.57元 [227] 3.2.6需求 - Not provided separately in the doc 3.2.7库存 - 厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨，预计后续继续下降 [153]

Group 1 - Current soda ash prices are below the production costs of most companies and significantly discounted in the spot market, but the supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, leading to limited sustainability in price rebounds [1][3] - The soda ash market is currently characterized by oversupply, with production capacity remaining stable and a high operating rate of around 85% in June, despite some companies undergoing maintenance [1][2] - The float glass industry, a key downstream sector, is experiencing weak demand and increasing losses, which may lead to a further decline in soda ash demand if no policy stimulus occurs [2][3] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the price of soda ash is between 950 to 970 yuan per ton, with delivery costs estimated at 1230 to 1250 yuan per ton, suggesting a potential for arbitrage if spot prices do not rise significantly [3] - The light soda ash demand remains weak, with downstream companies maintaining low operating rates and poor stocking intentions, indicating a lack of recovery in demand [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a notable decline in the photovoltaic glass market, further contributing to the pressure on soda ash demand [2]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a collective rebound on July 1, with Hongbaoli leading the surge by hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other stocks such as Shandong Heda, Changqing Technology, and Baihehua also reached the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest in the sector [1] - Hongbaoli's trading volume reached 240 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.57%, highlighting its active trading status [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is a fundamental sector of the national economy, with products widely used in construction, automotive, and electronics [2] - The performance of the chemical sector is closely linked to macroeconomic trends, reflecting the industry's sensitivity to economic conditions [2]

Core Insights - The company has successfully implemented a "zero manual" intelligent factory project, significantly improving production efficiency and reducing manual labor [1][4][6] - The transition from manual operations to automated systems has allowed for a substantial reduction in operational time and an increase in output [1][2][3] Group 1: Project Implementation - The "zero manual" project aims to transform traditional chemical production into smart manufacturing, with 2024 designated as the "digital year" for the company [2][5] - The project has been piloted in three units: the soda ash plant, bromine plant, and calcium chloride plant, focusing on automating complex processes [2][4] - The soda ash plant's new automated system has reduced the time required for operations from 251 minutes to 162 minutes, while also increasing output by 8 tons [1][3] Group 2: Efficiency and Economic Benefits - The project has led to a 55% average improvement in process stability and a 61% increase in key control indicators, while reducing manual operation frequency by 68% [4][6] - The soda ash plant has achieved a year-on-year increase in carbonization conversion rate of 0.31%, saving 10,200 tons of raw salt annually [4] - The overall economic benefit of the first phase of the project is over 20 million yuan, with the soda ash plant contributing 12.12 million yuan through increased production and reduced consumption [4][6] Group 3: Industry Impact and Future Plans - The project sets a benchmark for intelligent transformation in the chemical industry, with the company being the first in the ammonia-soda industry to implement fully automated operations [5][6] - The company plans to continue expanding its "zero manual" initiatives, with a second phase already underway to further enhance production processes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The aniline industry in China has experienced significant changes in production capacity and market dynamics, with a notable increase in capacity from 338,000 tons in 2020 to 449,500 tons in 2023, but is expected to stabilize around 450,000 tons in 2024 due to slowed growth in MDI production capacity [1][5][20]. Industry Overview - Aniline, also known as aminobenzene, is a crucial organic compound with the chemical formula C6H7N, characterized as a colorless to pale yellow oily liquid [2][3]. - The aniline industry is structured into three segments: upstream raw material supply, midstream production, and downstream application, with key applications in MDI, rubber additives, dyes, and pharmaceuticals [3][11]. Production Side - From 2017 to 2020, China's aniline production capacity decreased from 3.91 million tons to 3.38 million tons due to supply-side reforms and stricter environmental policies [5]. - In 2021, the trend reversed as new aniline facilities were commissioned, leading to a recovery in production capacity, which reached 4.495 million tons in 2023 [5][20]. - The growth in MDI production capacity is expected to slow significantly in 2024, limiting the demand for new aniline capacity [5][20]. Import and Export - China has achieved self-sufficiency in aniline, with imports remaining below 0.1 thousand tons from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong domestic supply capabilities [7]. - Aniline exports saw a significant decline in 2023, dropping to approximately 97,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 65.49%, but are projected to rebound to 213,400 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 117.98% [7][9]. - The average export price of aniline has risen from 4,874.17 yuan/ton in 2020 to 9,765.64 yuan/ton in 2024, marking a cumulative increase of 100.35% [9]. Consumption Side - The MDI industry is the largest consumer of aniline, accounting for about 80% of market consumption in 2024, driven by the growing demand for high-performance materials in various sectors [11][19]. - Domestic MDI production capacity has expanded significantly since 2000, with projections indicating a continued annual growth rate of 6% to 8% over the next five years, further driving aniline demand [11][19]. Key Enterprises - The aniline industry in China is characterized by high entry barriers and is dominated by major players such as Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and Shandong Haihua, which possess integrated advantages and strong market positions [13][15]. - Wanhua Chemical leads the industry with an aniline production capacity of 2.16 million tons, accounting for nearly 50% of the national total [17]. Development Trends - The regulatory environment is becoming stricter, promoting standardized and green development within the aniline industry, with policies focusing on environmental protection and safety production [19]. - The supply-demand balance in the aniline market remains tight, with production capacity steadily increasing while new capacity additions are limited [20][21]. - China's aniline industry is expanding its export market, with increasing international competitiveness, particularly in Europe, where demand for imported aniline is rising [22].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3377.00 points, remaining above the six-month moving average, with a decline of 0.75% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 15039.97 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking the Six-Month Moving Average - A total of 52 A-shares have surpassed the six-month moving average today [1] - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Jieqiang Equipment (300875) with a deviation rate of 11.63% and a daily increase of 20.01% [1] - Jihua Group (601718) with a deviation rate of 9.85% and a daily increase of 9.96% [1] - Hongxing Development (600367) with a deviation rate of 9.35% and a daily increase of 10.03% [1] Stocks with Smaller Deviation Rates - Stocks with smaller deviation rates that have just crossed the six-month moving average include: - Guangsha Huaneng (乖离率较小) [1] - Hualitai (乖离率较小) [1] - Chuan Investment Energy (乖离率较小) [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3348.37 points, above the annual line, with a decline of 0.94% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 1,182.564 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 31 A-shares have surpassed the annual line today, with notable stocks including: - Pruis (4.48% deviation) - Yingjie Electric (3.80% deviation) - Boying Special Welding (3.01% deviation) [1] - Stocks with smaller deviations just above the annual line include: - Shuangjian Co., Ltd. - Rhine Biology - Bull Group [1] Top Performers - The top three stocks with the highest deviation rates from the annual line are: 1. Pruis: 5.17% increase, 8.64% turnover rate, latest price 30.12 yuan 2. Yingjie Electric: 5.80% increase, 8.35% turnover rate, latest price 48.50 yuan 3. Boying Special Welding: 3.28% increase, 6.03% turnover rate, latest price 22.70 yuan [1] Additional Notable Stocks - Other notable stocks with significant performance include: - Fosa Technology: 3.03% increase, 8.32% turnover rate, latest price 32.31 yuan - Shandong Haihua: 5.57% increase, 6.80% turnover rate, latest price 5.88 yuan - Renfu Pharmaceutical: 3.06% increase, 2.53% turnover rate, latest price 20.88 yuan [1]

Group 1: Current Market Situation and Strategies - The company closely monitors the fluctuations in the futures and spot markets, utilizing futures hedging to mitigate market volatility risks [1] - In response to the ongoing downturn in the soda ash market, the company plans to optimize existing operations and expand new growth areas through process reengineering and product development [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Investor Relations - The management aims to maximize shareholder value and ensure operational efficiency, with a focus on achieving profitability in the mid-term [2] - The company will enhance its core competitiveness through increased investment in technology and innovation, while also implementing various market value management strategies [2]