Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The pre-prepared food concept is driving short-term performance in the catering supply sector, with a focus on the upcoming double festival catalysis [5][16] - The overall food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.53% from September 15 to September 19, with specific segments like pre-processed foods and soft drinks showing positive performance [23][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 15 to September 19, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.53%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index fell by 1.30% and 0.44%, respectively [23] - Specific segment performances included: pre-processed foods (+0.32%), soft drinks (+0.07%), and health products (+0.05%), while snacks (-1.28%) and meat products (-3.64%) saw declines [23] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector saw a decline of 2.95%, underperforming compared to the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 [14] - Key brands like Jinhuijiu and Gujinggongjiu experienced significant drops, with the overall consumption environment remaining under pressure [14] - The current PE-TTM for the liquor index is 19X, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [14] Beer Sector - The beer sector showed a slight increase of 0.03%, with brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer performing well [15] - Cumulative beer production from January to August 2025 was 26.83 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [15] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, three main investment lines are recommended: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang), value recovery stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [22] - In the beer sector, focus on companies with sustained growth potential and those benefiting from cost reductions [22] Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 18, 2025, with no year-on-year change [20] - The production capacity of Daizhou yellow wine increased from 18,000 tons to 130,000 tons over the past three years, with a reported output value of 263 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 14.3% year-on-year [14]

Core Insights - The Asian Brand Conference held in Hong Kong on September 24 announced the 2025 edition of the "Asian Brand 500," where China's Wuliangye ranked 29th overall, improving by one position from the previous year and making it into the "Top 10 Most Loved National Brands" sub-list, showcasing its strong brand power [1][3] Brand Performance - The "Asian Brand 500" list evaluates brands based on their influence in Asia, with 217 brands from China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) making the list, accounting for 43.40% of the total, the highest among all participating countries and regions [1][3] - Wuliangye achieved full scores of 5 in brand influence, brand loyalty, and Asian leadership, ranking second in the food and beverage sector, highlighting its growing international brand influence [3] Consumer Loyalty - A survey conducted by the World Brand Lab over thirteen years indicates that consumer loyalty towards domestic brands in mainland China has risen from 36% over a decade ago to 71% today, reflecting a significant shift in cultural confidence and brand recognition [3] Innovation and Marketing Strategies - In response to changing consumer preferences, Wuliangye has launched innovative products such as 29° Wuliangye, "Wuliang Highball" sparkling wine, and themed consumption experiences like "Wuliang·Zhi Zao" stores and various cultural events, catering to diverse consumer needs [4] - The company actively participates in high-profile events like the Boao Forum for Asia and collaborates with major platforms to enhance brand visibility, engaging millions through interactive activities [4] Future Direction - Wuliangye aims to continue its brand philosophy of "Harmony and Coexistence," focusing on high-quality products, creative expressions, and a broader vision to tell the story of Chinese liquor and showcase the unique charm of national brands to the world [4]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on September 24, with Luzhou Laojiao leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Luzhou Laojiao (code: 000568) closed at 131.91, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 62,600 and a transaction value of 826 million [2] - Kweichow Moutai (code: 600519) closed at 1442.00, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 30,700 and a transaction value of 4.443 billion [2] - Yanghe Brewery (code: 002304) closed at 69.11, down 0.30%, with a trading volume of 31,300 and a transaction value of 217 million [2] - Wuliangye (code: 000858) closed at 122.37, up 0.15%, with a trading volume of 130,600 and a transaction value of 1.598 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 394 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 93.998 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among individual stocks, with some stocks like Jinhuijiu (code: 600809) showing a net inflow of 369.30 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market appears bullish on the surface, but underlying currents indicate significant divergence among investment styles and logic, leading to a "purging" of weaker stocks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is an unprecedented level of divergence between sectors, with high-valued tech stocks remaining strong while blue-chip and white-horse stocks decline sharply [1] - Approximately 70% of individual stocks are either stagnant or declining, highlighting a symbolic distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" [1] Group 2: Performance of Key Stocks - "Old stocks" such as liquor, real estate, coal, electricity, banks, and insurance are underperforming, while "new stocks" in AI, computing power, semiconductors, and robotics are thriving [3] - For instance, stocks like Midea Group and Kweichow Moutai have seen minimal gains or losses, while companies like Shenghong Technology and Dongxin Co. have experienced significant increases of 696.45% and 407.03%, respectively [3] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is facing a downturn, with a 0.9% decline in revenue to 239.7 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and a 5% drop in the second quarter due to a "ban on alcohol" [6][7] - Only 6 out of 23 listed liquor companies reported positive revenue and net profit growth, indicating a severe contraction in the sector [6] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly shifting focus from traditional sectors to technology, with notable figures like Lin Yuan publicly acknowledging investments in AI and semiconductor companies [8][9] - The current bull market is characterized by a lack of fundamentals, with capital flows driven more by narrative and "mind monopoly" rather than earnings per share (EPS) [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The AI and semiconductor sectors are seen as having the potential for strong customer loyalty and ecological monopolies, similar to established brands in the liquor industry [12] - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of current valuations, as many companies in these sectors may not survive the inevitable market corrections [16]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a destocking cycle, facing multiple pressures from pricing, demand, and policy, prompting companies to actively respond to market conditions [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3821.83 points, down 0.18% on September 23 [1] - The liquor sector index closed at 2263.61 points, down 1.15%, with 20 liquor stocks declining [1] - Major liquor companies experienced the following stock price changes: - Kweichow Moutai: closed at 1447.42 CNY/share, down 0.41% [1] - Wuliangye: closed at 122.19 CNY/share, down 0.25% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu: closed at 193.81 CNY/share, down 1.12% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao: closed at 132.61 CNY/share, down 0.73% [1] - Yanghe Brewery: closed at 69.32 CNY/share, down 0.66% [1] Company Response - Huaxin Securities indicates that liquor companies are actively addressing challenges related to channels, organization, and sales in response to the pressures from the destocking cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in performance among many companies, particularly in the white liquor segment, as evidenced by recent financial reports and changing consumer preferences [1][3][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Among 20 listed liquor companies, only 6, including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, reported growth, while 15 experienced declines, with some showing significant drops in net profit [1]. - Moutai, the industry leader, has seen its growth rate fall to single digits for the first time in nearly a decade, with the price of its 53-degree Feitian Moutai dropping nearly one-third in the past year and close to 50% over the last two years [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Trends - The overall liquor production has been declining for eight consecutive years, dropping from 13.58 million tons in 2016 to 4.14 million tons in 2024, a decrease of over 60% [2]. - The inventory of 20 A-share liquor companies is close to 4 million tons in 2024, indicating that even without production for four years, there would still be sufficient supply in the market [2]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Young consumers show low acceptance of white liquor, with a survey indicating that only 19% of individuals aged 20 to 35 prefer white liquor, compared to other alcoholic beverages [12]. - The number of large-scale white liquor enterprises in China is projected to decrease to 887 by mid-2025, down by over 100 from the previous year [3]. Group 4: Historical Context and Policy Impact - The white liquor industry has undergone significant changes since the 1989 market liberalization, with various marketing strategies leading to rapid growth until recent policy changes and market dynamics began to impact consumption [7][8]. - The introduction of regulations in 2012 aimed at curbing public spending has drastically reduced the share of government-related consumption in the white liquor market, leading to a significant drop in stock prices and sales [8][9]. Group 5: Industry Adaptation and Future Outlook - In response to changing consumer preferences, liquor companies are launching new products, including low-alcohol and cross-category beverages, to attract younger consumers [12]. - The international market remains a potential growth area, with Chinese liquor exports reaching 8.31 million liters in the first half of 2025, representing only 0.04% of domestic production [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Zhang Kun's contrarian investment strategy in the liquor sector, particularly focusing on leading brands while divesting from weaker ones [2] - In Q2 2025, Zhang Kun significantly increased holdings in top liquor stocks such as Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while reducing exposure to Yanghe Distillery, indicating a preference for strong market leaders [2] - The investment strategy reflects a structural judgment on the liquor industry, emphasizing that only companies with strong pricing power can navigate through economic cycles [2] Group 2 - Zhang Kun articulated his investment philosophy in the quarterly report, which includes three supporting pillars: breaking the linear pessimism mindset, recognizing China's economic potential, and prioritizing the importance of timing over prediction [3] - He argues that the current downturn in real estate is a cyclical bottom rather than a long-term trend, as evidenced by a 2.9% decline in property sales and a 10.7% drop in development investment from January to May [3] - The belief in China's economic resilience underpins the decision to increase holdings in consumer sectors during a downturn, with a long-term view that GDP growth targets are achievable by 2035 [3] Group 3 - Despite the aggressive strategy, the funds managed by Zhang Kun underperformed, with the E Fund Blue Chip Select returning -7.15%, lagging the benchmark by 9.07 percentage points, leading to a decrease in management scale from 608.22 billion to 550.47 billion [4] - The commitment to the liquor sector is seen as a "faith anchor" for Zhang Kun's investment approach, as many investors view these brands as representatives of the consumer sector [4] - A shift towards technology investments could risk undermining investor confidence and lead to a significant reduction in fund size and management fees, making the decision to adjust holdings a critical strategic choice [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales of liquor are expected to face pressure during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but there are opportunities for bottom recovery in the sector [5] - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector has lagged behind the Shanghai Composite Index, with a decline of 1.48% over the past two weeks [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of the liquor market and suggests that the worst phase for the industry has passed [5] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - In August, the retail sales of tobacco and liquor fell by 2.3% year-on-year, while restaurant income increased by 2.1%, indicating a gradual recovery in dining consumption [5] - The price of Feitian liquor has shown weakness, with a decline in wholesale prices [5] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance over the last month was 1.3%, 4.6% over three months, and 20.8% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's performance of 6.6%, 17.1%, and 40.9% respectively [3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several liquor companies for investment, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, among others [5][25] - For consumer goods, it suggests focusing on companies like Bai Run Co., Wei Long, and Salted Fish [8][25] Valuation Insights - As of September 19, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the food and beverage sector is 21.1x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [22] - The report notes that the liquor sub-sector has the highest valuation at 50.42x [22] Focused Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, including Kweichow Moutai with an expected EPS of 74.19 yuan for 2025 and a PE ratio of 19.79 [28]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.23% to 3781.61 points, and the liquor sector also faced a downturn, closing down 1.82% at 2248.33 points [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector saw a decline with 20 stocks falling, including major players such as Kweichow Moutai, which closed at 1441.90 CNY per share, down 0.79%, and Wuliangye, which closed at 121.77 CNY per share, down 0.60% [1] - Other notable declines included Shanxi Fenjiu at 193.45 CNY per share, down 1.30%, Luzhou Laojiao at 132.18 CNY per share, down 1.05%, and Yanghe Brewery at 69.09 CNY per share, down 0.99% [1] Future Trends - According to Huashang Securities, the future development trend of the liquor industry is leaning towards lower alcohol content as the consumer base evolves. The industry is shifting towards "quality enhancement, brand influence, cultural expression, and value creation" [1] - Younger consumers are increasingly favoring personalized, lower-alcohol, and enjoyable drinking experiences, as well as "light social" drinking scenarios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is experiencing a significant downturn characterized by declining prices, increased inventory, and shifting consumer preferences, indicating a deep adjustment phase rather than a temporary fluctuation [4][15][22]. Industry Overview - The baijiu industry is facing a dual decline in both volume and price, with a reported production volume of 191.59 million kiloliters in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [5]. - Approximately 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, where actual market prices fall below manufacturer guidance, particularly affecting the 800-1500 yuan price range [5]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in sales [11]. Company Performance - Major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing signs of slowing growth, with Moutai's revenue growth target for 2025 set at 9%, the lowest since 2016 [17]. - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 527.71 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 4.19% [17]. - Liquor companies are increasingly resorting to price cuts to manage high inventory levels, creating a downward pressure on prices [12]. Consumer Trends - The primary consumer demographic for baijiu is undergoing a generational shift, with younger consumers (born after 1995) showing diverse preferences for alcoholic beverages, including wine and craft beer [24]. - Health consciousness among younger consumers is changing drinking habits, leading to a decline in traditional drinking culture [25]. - The rise of new sales channels, such as e-commerce and community group buying, is disrupting traditional distribution models and further compressing profit margins for liquor companies [25]. Market Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are emerging structural opportunities in the market, particularly in the lower price segments (100-300 yuan) where demand is shifting [26]. - The focus on family and friend gatherings as primary consumption scenarios is creating new opportunities for products that cater to these social settings [33]. - Companies that can adapt to these changes by enhancing their product offerings and marketing strategies are likely to survive and thrive in the long term [26].